NV-Sen: New Ad From Reid

It opens by touting how he helped pass aid to prevent teacher lay-offs then attacks Angle for saying that the emergency "is in Harry Reid's mind" and playing a quote where she says she wants to end the Dept. of Education.  I'm not a Nevadan, but education is a big political issue there.  The current governor is stiffing the schools in his budget, they're falling behind, and education is important if the state wants to foster a generation that can diversify Nevada's economy.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 19:43:22 PM UTC

To say that Nevada's education woes ...

are all in Reid's mind is pretty damn callous.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 19:44:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Excellent ad

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 19:56:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Between

having non-aggression pacts with prominent Nevada GOP politicians and running non-stop attacks on the once front runner of the GOP senate race Harry Reid has not only risen from the dead but is running a 100% stellar campaign. If he continues to blanket the airwaves with idiotic and radical quotes of Angle then he should have no problem winning this race by at least 5 points if not more.

BTW how do you set your comments to automatically have a quote or Name/where you live on the bottom of it?      

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

---

by: GayTeen4Obama @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 20:43:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Click

"GayTeen4Obama's page" in the lower right hand corner under menu. You'll see three tabs, click the profile one.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 20:48:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

On the "MENU" on the right side of the page....

I clicked "LookingOver's Page", clicked the profile tab, and then wrote it in the box titled "comment signature."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 20:49:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks

very much I think I did it correctly  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

---

by: GayTeen4Obama @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 21:03:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah.

  I did not think he had it in him.

24, Male, GA-05

---

by: cilerder86 @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 00:13:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pretty good ad

 It highlights what Harry Reid did to help education but also shows how Sharron Angle is just too extreme.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

---

by: Alibguy @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 02:26:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bobby Bright ad

After watching that ad, Id go to my ballot and try to find him running under the Independent ballot line or something.  Not that I expect him to utter the word Democrat anywhere, but it just makes me think, why not just switch to Independent and caucus with us to make it easier?

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 19:48:41 PM UTC

You

don't really caucus with anyone in the House do you? I mean if you are indy you vote for either a R or D Speaker and that's it. That's what I think anyway, I could be wrong. As long as Bright commits to vote Pelosi I will support him. Switching could hurt him though, it is harder to fundraise as an independent even if he is the de facto nominee and there is always the possibility some liberal dem makes it on the D ballot and into the general where they could siphon votes from Bright. Also some dems might not want to vote for him as an indy.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 20:05:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The arrangement that Bernie Sanders had in the House

was that he'd vote with the Dems on procedural matters, but would be free to vote how he wished otherwise.

I'm pretty sure you'd have to be allied with one side in order to have any committee assignments.  

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 20:35:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bobby Bright

Anyone else realize he wasn't in congress for the bailout votes, that he says he voted against?  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 20:21:18 PM UTC

Well, I think he's saying that he voted against authorizing

TARP Part 2.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 20:23:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why does that matter

Nobody can even remember who was president back then let alone who was in congress

---

by: lovespolitics @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 20:51:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Most Republicans think Obama was President for the first TARP vote and that TARP and stimulus were the same vote......

At some point you just stop trying to make stupid people informed and just ride their stupidity for your own benefit.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:10:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Johnson & Home Mortgage Interest Deduction

Crisitunity: "If you wanted to simultaneously set back both the entire real estate business and the middle class by several decades, eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction would be a good way to do it."

I'll give this a one paragraph response.

This is a very poorly targeted subsidy, with most of the benefits going to the wealthy (the eligibility limits are far too high, and since it's a tax deduction the more you make the bigger the break). It's expensive, close to $100 billion per year, and so is precisely the kind of subsidy we're going to have to focus more tightly to get a handle on the deficit for the long term. Britain managed to phase its subsidy out over a 12 year period without substantial damage to its real estate sector or its middle class. More at http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03...

Anyway, Johnson's website says he supports the deduction, so I suppose the issue is (unfortunately) moot. http://ronjohnsonforsenate.com...

---

by: dsimon @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 20:37:39 PM UTC

Really off topic for SSP but....

The mortgage tax deduction is also helps people in low tax states more than in high tax state. This is a big problem in places like NYC. State & local income tax rates are over 10%.

Throw in property tax rates and the deduction from taxes alone pushes many upper middle class people into the AMT (alternative minimum tax) and causes them to lose their ability to deduct their mortgage from their taxes.

So if you have 2 people with the same income and same mortgage living in NYC and Nevada the Nevadan could get the mortgage deduction from his federal taxes while the New Yorker could because the New Yorker would max out his deductions with is state & local tax burden.

To tie this in to election this can be seen as a Red & Blue state issues with Blue high tax state residents getting screwed due to the AMT.

Also it is political poison to talk about repealing the deduction. For a lot of folks it is the mortgage tax deduction that make owning a home possible.  

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

---

by: izengabe @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 21:28:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

tax geek chimes in

   Home mortgages are not an AMT item. While it is possible that the NY resident might lose their itemized deductions benefits under AMT because the state taxes are not deductible, the home mortgage (though not home equity loans not used to to improve the residence) is still deductible under AMT. (I am an E.A.-enrolled agent who has been doing taxes for twenty years.)

  Stepping back from the arcana of tax law, the key point from an elections standpoint is that any candidate who proposed elimination of the mortgage interest deduction would be electrocuted on one of those third rails of U.S. politics. The mortgage interest deduction might not the most efficient or equitable form of housing subsidy but I don't see it being eliminated anytime soon.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

---

by: Zack from the SFV @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 21:44:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It favors the middle class and upper middle class not the rich

which is why it is idiocy to oppose it.

Mortgage interest deductions can only be taken on the first million dollars of mortgage, which is why there is a pretty large blackhole in home sale prices between 1.3m and 2m.  In states where you can buy a mansion for the price of a cup of coffee, it doesn't matter much, but in more expensive states like California eliminating it would cause the collapse of real estate value, not proportionally but like 400k for property in the 600k to 1.3k range, while barely effecting the rich.

The key to getting elected these days is to propose raising taxes on other people.  Proposing raising taxes and lowering home values for the great mass of the middle class will get you un-elected instantly.

---

by: tommypaine @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:42:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It Still Favors The Rich

tommypaine: "It favors the middle class and upper middle class not the rich
which is why it is idiocy to oppose it.

"Mortgage interest deductions can only be taken on the first million dollars of mortgage..."

Yes, but that million dollars of mortgage deductibility applies no matter how big the mortgage may be. If I can afford a $3 million house, I can still deduct the interest on the first million of the mortgage. The higher my tax bracket, the more I get out of the deduction. It's not only an unwarranted subsidy, but a regressive one.

"Proposing raising taxes and lowering home values for the great mass of the middle class will get you un-elected instantly."

Yet at the same time, we're supposedly all concerned about our long-term national debt. We can't continue to have it both ways. People have to be asked to make some choices, or admit they're not really willing to do anything about the problem. Plus, Britain managed to phase out its subsidy over a decade without a great deal of harm. And if the key is to protect the middle class, then it could be targeted much more effectively.

Looks like I'm about to buy an apartment in Manhattan. Someone should tell me why all of you folks at SSP are going to be subsidizing my purchase.

---

by: dsimon @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:06:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You can't get rid of it in a housing-crash recession......

When times are good, the economy is better suited to absorb it.  But now, when everyone's home values have tanked, you send the market and the entire economy into a disastrous tailspin by getting rid of it.  Timing and conditions matter.

We've got a $1 million home and are high income, but as it goes until you get to millionaire status and even some of them, you commit whatever you make and your spending becomes inelastic.  Take away the home mortgage deduction, even slowly, and a lot of people's incomes can't keep up with the growing tax liability.  Nor can they sell because their housing values fall even further.

It's not just politically toxic but also bad policy to talk NOW of abolishing the home mortgage interest tax deduction.  Just eliminating the Bush tax cuts and modestly hiking everyone's tax liability is a much smarter move, politically and economically.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:22:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I Agree To Some Extent

"When times are good, the economy is better suited to absorb it...Timing and conditions matter."

I agree. I wouldn't phase it out right now, but I wouldn't take it off the table for the future. It could be a part of comprehensive tax reform.

"Just eliminating the Bush tax cuts and modestly hiking everyone's tax liability is a much smarter move, politically and economically."

I don't know if modestly hiking everyone's tax liability is a smart move--maybe it's a smart"er" move--but if it's bad to eliminate the deduction when the economy is bad, then so is raising taxes on everyone. Best politically and economically to let the cuts on high earners expire and later everyone else when the economy is better (ask: are we serious about the debt or not?).

---

by: dsimon @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 12:50:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's backwards

"The higher my tax bracket, the more I get out of the deduction. It's not only an unwarranted subsidy, but a regressive one."

If someone buys a $3m home, with $2m down they are far very unlikely to fall into a lower tax bracket due to the mortgage deduction.  In contrast, the mortage deduction is critical in bringing some middling income earners down to a lower tax bracket, especially those currently finacially strapped.

The middle class can deduct 100% of their mortgage interest, and lower their overall tax rate too.  The rich can only deduct a portion of their interest (in the case of a $3m home, only half) and will not fall into a lower tax bracket.

If you want to look at it in politically antagonistic terms, the middle class benefits while the rich and the non-propertied poor do not.  At the same time, generally the poor would rather own homes than not, so opposing the deduction is counter to the great mass of people's interests.  Eliminating the deduction would actually relatively benefit the rich, both because they benefit relatively little from it now and because they would end up dominating more real estate value at lower prices.

More than anything else though, such an idea would lead to a cataclysmic economic change, and hardly anyone wants embrace something where the fallout might fall in them, rather than "the other guy".

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:47:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looking At Amounts, Not Proportion

"The middle class can deduct 100% of their mortgage interest, and lower their overall tax rate too.  The rich can only deduct a portion of their interest (in the case of a $3m home, only half) and will not fall into a lower tax bracket."

I think you may be looking at the effect of the deduction on one's overall effective tax rate; I'm looking at how much you get. If I'm well into the top bracket, I'm still going to get far more benefit (up to 35% for each dollar deducted) in terms of dollars than someone who is not in the top bracket. It may not be as big a proportionate cut in the effective tax rate, but it's a lot more money, and it doesn't make sense to me to give a bigger break to people who make more money to begin with. Again, most of the benefits go to people who need it the least. As of 2006, half the benefits of the subsidy went to people making over $100,000. For most owners, the savings are modest, under $2,000 per return.

And given that the median home price in the US is under $200,000, the vast majority of buyers don't get to take advantage of going up to the $1 million mortgage cap anyway; only the wealthy and the very wealthy get to do that.

I don't want to belabor the point. I just advise reading the NY Times article I linked to above.

---

by: dsimon @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 13:21:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup

Yeah, for serious, don't go assumin' we're all about the mortgage interest deduction or that people like that part of the tax code (although I bet they do since it gives them money--even teabaggers seem to like those parts...wonder why?). Personally, it's one of my least favorite parts of the tax code: leads to sprawl, benefits the rich, unnecessarily meddles with markets, and makes it unlikely that middle-class apartments will ever be built (crack den/Section 8 or horrifically expensive condos--your choice, America!) and makes me feel like I should want to own a home when I don't. And there are already far too many things I'm made to feel like I should want when I don't. But whatevs, not germane to SSP so I'll shut up now.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:16:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is a derail

Obviously this is not a topic for SSP. Yes, I grant that occasionally, we'll toss in throw-away lines line this in the digest. But let's stick to politics, folks, not tax policy.

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:14:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Apologies

Sorry, posted again before I got to the above post. Tried to keep comments brief; won't post on this topic again.

---

by: dsimon @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 13:24:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rand Paul is alientating the people who got him the nomination and gave him money

What a smart guy!  He definitely belongs in the senate.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 20:43:20 PM UTC

Am I the only one who thinks raising $250k online in 2 days is really good?

Maybe he set the bar too high with his earlier money bombs but $250k online in 2 days is a pretty good haul. Especially considering that it probably cost him next to nothing to raise that money.

Money bombs like this are the most bang for the buck you can get. No direct mail costs, no dialing for dollars and no money up front to pay for "rubber chickens" of usual campaign fundraiser. Heck you dont even need to pay for a campaign staffer to open the mail and take the checks to the bank! The money just get automatically transferred to your account.

To me $250k coming in like that in the middle of August is pretty impressive.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

---

by: izengabe @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 21:35:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not really no

Look at his previous money bombs. Not as much as before. Money bombs are his main source of funding. People who normally give to him wait until he does a money bomb. They encourage people to wait to donate until the money bomb days so they can say "look at all the cash we hauled in just one day". So yeah 250K is not that impressive to me.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 21:44:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

For some reason

The Republican party is more motivated by funding challengers against their own than in the general election. same thing is happening with Rubio. He raised a lot more in his moneybombs when Crist was a Republican than he does now.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:58:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I

guess tea party folks are more concerned about sending a message to the Republican establishment than anything else. Same as FDL purists. How many of them would have worked their buts off for Halter in a GE? I doubt many. Not to say all Halter supporters are purist though. Some of us supported him just because he stood a somewhat better chance in November. Back to my main point, I guess you could also reason that they gave all they could during the primary and do not have any left to give. Also hasn't Rubio been moving somewhat towards the center? With immigration and other things.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:07:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

Rubio has. He can afford to. But, no one notices when he does on the right. They still love him, just not as motivated to give him money.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 00:33:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rove's group out with new ad in NV.

Geez, talk about beating a dead horse.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:03:46 PM UTC

people still care about healthcare?

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by: Andrew @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 00:44:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP

hints at a Marco Rubio lead in tomorrow's Senate poll. Crist trails Meek by a point with Democrats, after Meek had being losing among Democrats in the last poll.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:11:34 PM UTC

Not necessarily

Crist lead by 6 in the last PPP poll overall and the swing to Meek with Dems is from +9 to 1. If Rubio is ahead it won't be by much. The flipside of the primary coverage helping Meek is that Crist likely has the advantage postprimary with Dems since the topic of conversation will be all about him and Rubio since Meek will be broke. I'm also not sure if I agree Crist has to actually win Dems outright to win it all outright.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:19:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, a swing of 10 points with Democrats alone doesn't translate to Crist losing his lead......

Crist would have to have bled with Repubs and indies, too, and not just Dems, to have completely lost his lead over Rubio.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:23:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

WI-07

I completely believe it, and would rate it as Lean R. There's no reason Obey would have retired without knowing that he was behind in the polls. Is Lassa a great campaigner? Ron Johnson should win this district as should the Republican in Wi-GOV.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:12:28 PM UTC

Nobody else has

Kirk ahead in Illinois let alone by that margin so I think that calls into question most of these numbers, particularly with all those undecideds. Also, it is just as likely Obey retired because his poll found a competitive race he didn't fancy after a good few years in Washington already. Doesn't mean to say he was behind at all.

---

by: conspiracy @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:23:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Both Politico and The Hill

ran profiles in 2009 saying he was going to stick around for a couple more years. He wanted to fix up the appropriation process, do some major energy bill, do a tax bill, an education bill etc.

And then he just retires? His excuse was so pathetic.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:37:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He

also may have thought we are going to lose the majority and did not want to be ranking member. Even if we keep the majority by a slim margin we will not be able to do what he wants in next Congress. The guy has been in Washington since before I was born, hell before I was even thought about. He deserves the right to retire for any reason he wants. He has probably done all he could do. We will probably never know what his polling said but with do respect if you have some secret source that says he was down I would like to know.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:52:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh I bet he had shitty internals

There were a number of random retirements where it simply seemed like the incumbent got spooked.  AR-2, ND-Sen, this one.

---

by: Andrew @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 00:49:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

if you haven't already read my other replies below on the matter. No offense to anyone but I am sick of typing.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:43:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

oh i got to them

;)

---

by: Andrew @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 02:38:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

To

be fair Obey could have seen numbers showing him leading but in a competitive race. Like he could have seen a poll showing him ten points up. That still indicates he is favored to win but that he will have to campaign to do so.

There's no reason Obey would have retired without knowing that he was behind in the polls

Sorry I call bull on that. He is getting up there in years and has been in Washington forever and probably did not want an even somewhat competitive campaign. If you have been there as long as he has you get tired at a certain point. He has to retire sometime. Per these numbers. Lassa is probably behind but dude stop defending We Ask America. They have yet to prove they are credible. I will concede that the district we talked of yesterday is probably gone and I may have been wrong in saying otherwise but We Ask America is a Republican pollster and should be taken with a grain of salt, same as an internal. I seriously doubt Kirk is up by that much. I do not think we have seen a Kirk lead all summer let alone such a large one. I do not think Lassa is done for. This is not lean R.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:47:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And

why did Obey say last year he planned to stick around and get more stuff done? I mean sure, his retirement was because he was bone-tired, (and he probably was in terms of not wanting to run a competitive campaign not because he couldn't deal with the Appropriations committee)

He polled the race and didn't like the results. It's quite obvious. (I have no secret source)

I don't know about Duffy but if he runs an ad saying Lassa is going to go to Washington and be like Obey (and the way he spends money), that could be credible.

After thinking about it a little bit more, I agree it may not be Lean R, probably Tossup. My point was that Obey was down, and Lassa is down. (which you admitted) It didn't say anything about agreeing with We Ask America.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:01:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You are assuming he was down

In his own polling and there is no evidence of that. Indeed it is credible that he was up by a smaller than usual margin and didn't feel up to the challenge.

---

by: conspiracy @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:04:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

I am assuming that. What I am saying is not concrete evidence but more of trying to link two things together that seem suspicious to say the least.

After saying he wanted to get stuff done in The Hill Profile from late '09, (I can't remember exactly what he said, but maybe that he was fine staying there for ten more years), he suddenly decides to retire? (and thus give up all he had wanted to do?)  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:12:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Things change

I doubt he was down but that is just an assumption on my part. It isn't exactly a hardcore Republican seat. Yes it is marginal but Obey has been there forever with easy wins. I see no reason why he would be losing but every reason to suggest he would have to work for it this time. Taking other factors into account he thought it best to let someone younger have a go.

---

by: conspiracy @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:20:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

See

my below comment.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:21:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I doubt Obey was down

He got more than 60% in both 06 and 08. Duffy is the county attorney of a county with just 17k people, and as such probably not that well known except among people who used to watch too much MTV. I could see Obey having to run a real campaign and maybe winning 55-45 due to this being a worse environment for Dems, but unless something else is going on he would not have lost to Duffy.  

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 00:52:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I

never said Obey liked the results, quite the opposite I admitted he probably did not. That DOES NOT mean he was down though. Like I previously said he could have been up but it was clear that he would have to work to get re-elected and he did not have it in him. He could have been up ten points or more for all we know. Yes it is possible that he was down but we have no real evidence of that.  

why did Obey say last year he planned to stick around and get more stuff done?

Simple. Unlike last year he now knows we will not have the same majority and will not be able to get things done like we are now. If we keep control of Congress by five or so votes we will probably not be able to do a whole lot or any of what he probably wants to do.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:14:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ok.

This was in the later part of the year that I saw this but with such a large majority he didn't accomplish anything that progressive, so I would think scoring victories on something (even if they are watered down forms of everything) would be good enough for him.

We can agree that this district is tossup. I think the Republicans will win here in the Governor's race and the Senator's race. Lassa will need to distance herself from Obey and his appropriations to win.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:20:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not getting

What you mean at all in that first paragraph. I disagree completely that nothing progressive was done but even given that assumption it doesn't make sense at all that in his disappointment he would fight on for even more watered down reforms in a much more Republican House.

Agree completely with your second para and frankly that is all that matters now whatever the reason or reasons for Obey's retirement.

---

by: conspiracy @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:31:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am saying...

that the stimulus could have worked better had it been bigger. Various spending bills could have been changed to not be watered down. (like using the food stamp expansion to pay for keeping teachers) When Obey retired in May, I thought it was going to be a small Democratic majority. (don't know about the rest of you) In any majority, Obey would be extremely powerful as Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, and would play extremely important roles in America's spending/deficit etc. And Republicans will have no more than a +10 advantage in the House if they do win, and that's such a small advantage, that campaigning could easily turn that to a small D advantage come November.

So I think The Hill said back last year he wanted to score victories on things and was willing to settle for watered down bills if the Democratic majorities shrunk.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:39:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There is a long time

Between comments made in late 2009 and a retirement in May 2010 but again it doesn't really matter now.

---

by: conspiracy @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:47:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you say you're even thinking about retiring

people will smell blood in the water.

---

by: emilysdad @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 05:05:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well i agree with you and the poll that lassa is at this point down a few points.

Im going to have to disagree that Johnson should win this district,Bush lost the 7th both times and i dont see why Johnson would have any particular appeal here. [unless you are assuming he wins statewide. in that case yes he should win it.]
Lassa shouldn't be completely counted out though, As its summer and no ones paying attention as to who the candidates are yet.  

20, male, independent, WI-07.

---

by: Nhoj @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 04:30:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe he was just sick of it

Obey was elected in a 1969 special election (in WI-10! WI is down to eight seats now), after Nixon appointed Rep. Mel Laird as Secretary of Defense.

41 years is a long time to do any job.

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by: emilysdad @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 05:01:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Craig Miller mailer in FL

http://www.politico.com/news/s...
Pete Sessions is NOT happy about it. His preferred candidate is Miller, so, if he is not happy about it, can that be a sign he thinks Diebel will win and Miller is hurting her GE chances? also, in the DD, it says he has spent millions. He has only self funded around 350k and raised less than 300k  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 22:56:58 PM UTC

Sandy Adams could be a spoiler

She's a state Rep and seems to be running as the most conservative option, and while she doesn't quite have the money of Miller or Diebel, she'd spent $275K through July. Adams will probably finish third (I would vote for her if I lived in the district, though,) and since she shares the same home base as Diebel (Winter Park), her presence will probably help Miller.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:26:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope so

I'm rooting for Miller so the NRCC doesn't need to spend money here. However, this attack has made me a lil less enthusiastic about him.

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 00:32:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is certainly (CA-52)

a unique way to protest not being able to debate.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:24:12 PM UTC

This was mentioned in a daily digest last week

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 02:10:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

well, the hunger strike itself

not him breaking it.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 02:12:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

FL robo calls and NV boredom

   I got a call from my cousin who lives in Tampa, he got three calls on behalf of Greene today, even one from a woman who said she was his wife.  Jeff will come a cropper Tuesday, he is just too much of a Jerk to beat mild mannered Meek.
  People here in NV are commenting on the lack of new staff for Sharron Angle.  The thinking was that once she got the nomination she would be getting the Lord of Hosts and all His Minions.  Ha, it is the same old crowd that has been with her for years, damn few new faces anywhere.  Sharron Angle can always fill the revival tent but it's all the same audience, all the same staffers and the usual message.  
The republicans might get religion and repent of ever having anything to do with her before this is over.

Rollo "Rob" Weems

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by: RolloWeems @ Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 23:30:41 PM UTC

Mitch Landrieu endorses Cedric Richmond

http://www.cedricrichmond.com/...
This is huge for Richmond. If he narrowly avoids a run-off on Saturday, THIS will be why. Richmond needed this. LaFonta and Johnson have the momentum, especially LaFonta. Richmond has had a week of bad press for allegations about his benefiting from a charity, and some votes he took. If anyone wants to hear more of those, go to the end of the weekend open thread. LaFonta has received a bunch of union endorsements in the last few weeks and has come out with two very good radio ads. The LA Truth PAC, a 527 that is funded by LaFonta's biggest donor, has been funding attacks on Richmond, in the form of a mailer and website. The attacks are nasty and would hurt Richmond bad. the low turnout is also hurting him because Johnson and LaFonta have much more motivated supporters. This endorsement is certainly a big boost for him.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 00:30:54 AM UTC

As a Louisiana politico,

do you think Cao's easiest opponent to get is Richmond?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 00:31:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Question

How bad would you describe Richmond's ethics? Not as bad as Jefferson's right? Be non partisan. Also, say the circumstances were different, it was a dem in an R+20 that won under fluke-ish circumstances and voted for HCR and a Republican clone of Richmond was your nominee. Would you support him? Be honest. I just want to know I am not crazy in rooting against Cao. I trust your judgment and if you tell me you would support the dem then I will support Cao as Richmond must be that bad because I know you hate HCR as much as I support it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:05:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Um,

Obviously we all trust GOPVoter here and he knows a ton about Louisiana politics. No disrespect or anything, but you should never make up your mind  just by listening to someone else.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:09:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

I'll drop it but to be honest it was not just GOPVOTER. It was a bit of you and him that is making me curious on the issue of how bad Richmond is. I probably should not have said I would base my support on GV's opinion. That was foolish you are right. I'll just research the issue myself and make up my mind and keep my opinion to myself.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:41:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh no. I think my comment came off a little bit rude.

Hearing other opinions is good; I just thought it was weird how you were going to base it off GOPVoter's opinion alone. Did you see in the open thread what he had done?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:46:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

HoosierDem

From GOPVoter and the open thread: (This is what made me think twice about Richmond; though I know that generally New Orleans is not the cleanest city)

GOPVoter's Post on the last Open Thread:

Cedric Richmond under attack in La-02 dem primary
Supporters of his various Dem opponents have alleged that his top aide committed MURDER, he stole money from a non-profit to buy a Rolex, have been hitting him for getting in a bar fight in 2007 (that is not an allegation, there is a police report for that), for getting his law license suspended in 2005 for lying about his residency to run for a city council seat, and votes he took voting against restraining orders for women abused, and for voting against banning discrimination. The Louisiana Truth Pac has funded most of these attacks with a website and mailers. The question is: Does it hurt him in the primary and possibly run-off, and if he wins the nomination with a divided Dem party (Dems are behind the attacks, not Republicans), how bad is he injured in a general election? He could catch a break, since his likely run-off opponent would be Juan LaFonta, who has pledged not to attack him. Also, how much money are they putting behind these attacks? Would they have to file FEC independent expenditure reports, or only if they spend a certain amount?  
Here is the site with the attacks: http://therealcedricrichmond.com/
Some (like murder) seem WAY over the top and could backfire, imo. Then again, it is New Orleans.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:47:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry for the third post.

Keep in mind that the top aide committed murder, everything else is Richmond's doing.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:52:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks

for your interest GradyDem. I will consider everything you have posted. Although it is all a moot point as I do not live in LA and even if I do support Cao I will not send him money. I enjoy taking sides anyway though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:58:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah I know. I do too.

I wouldn't send money to any Republican save maybe Lugar, Snowe, or Voinovich. At least they make up their own mind.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 02:05:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

I have given some cash to a few local Republican politicians I really like but never any more than that. I am pretty conservative when it comes to my donations. I only give to people I really like. I can vote for some Republicans but I would not donate to them.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 02:28:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's exactly how I feel.

n/t

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 03:14:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Again

I want to stress that the group funding this effort is funded by LaFonta's top contributor, and LaFonta is known as a very tough, negative, tear down campaigner, so we don't know how true or how much it is bended here.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 04:05:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not sure this is a really productive set of questions

When "analysis" turns into "personal preferences," that often leads to derails. You might be better off taking this discussion to email.

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:10:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fair enough

I was just curious as to what GOPVOTER thought on the matter. The hypothetical was for me to gauge whether or not Richmond would be cause us Rangel like problems but I will drop it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 01:37:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Im not sure

If they are even true. Many of them are very hard to believe, but that does not mean they are not getting their play in local press and that it will not hurt Richmond.
@ TheGradyDem: No, I think Richmond is the 2nd strongest opponent. LaFonta is strongest, IMO. Everyone thinks its Richmond. LaFonta has a stronger grassroots organization, and is a stronger campaigner. No matter who the nominee is of the 2, they will raise money, so that is not an issue. Also, the gay community, which Cao has been courting, strongly supports LaFonta for his work on gay rights in the legislature. Without him in the race, Cao would get much of their support. LaFonta also appeals more to white liberals since he represents parts of the French Quarter and Richmond is from NOLA East. I am rooting for Eugene Green, who, even though he is a smart man and has some money, would almost be unelectable b/c of ties to Jefferson. Richmond also has ties to Jefferson, from donating 1k to him before the primary with Karen Carter, and saying this when the NO Dem's endorsed her over him: that black voters who vote for Democrats need to reconsider their loyalties, in light of that party's treatment of Congressman William Jefferson."
LaFonta would also be more of a unifier, as I think Gary Johnson, and maybe Green, would have serious problems with Richmond, and could support the independent, Ron Austin.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 04:02:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Moe Lane's

"private sources" says Russ Carnahan is suddenly not interested in keeping his job. I wonder if these are the same that told Erick Erickson that Castle would be a Democrat after the election.

http://www.redstate.com/moe_la...


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 02:10:04 AM UTC

Doubt It, But ...

But this would be on my list of possible "stunners" on Election Night, along with some in trouble Democrats surviving.

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by: tallsy @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 02:26:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Almost got polled today

A woman called me and asked a question about how likely I was to vote, but then the connection broke up. She called me back, connection broke up again. She didn't try again after that :(

The name was something really generic-sounding but that I had never heard of...like Rhode Island Opinion Research or something like that. Wonder if it was an internal or what. I didn't hear a candidate name mentioned.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 02:14:49 AM UTC

My wife got polled by Quinnipiac once....

...but the poll was never published... at least I couldn't find it no matter how hard I tried!

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by: LordMike @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 02:56:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've actually been polled

before, once, maybe twice, but I don't think it was by a pollster of any significance. Most of the major pollsters aside from Rasmussen don't poll RI and I don't think Rasmussen polls cellphones (the pollsters usually call my cellphone, I guess I must have put that down when I was registering to vote or something).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 03:16:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do they do

private polls?

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 04:06:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't know...

But, this didn't seem like one.  It was a "state of the nation" type poll... Obama approval and national policy mostly.  No state or local questions--I think... I'm getting the info secondhand.

For weeks, I looked for the poll to be published, and nothing came of it.  I was rather disappointed.

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by: LordMike @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 04:11:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My

household has only been polled once in 2006 for the Menendez vs. Kean election but I can't recall who did the polling.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

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by: GayTeen4Obama @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 03:35:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]