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SSP Daily Digest: 8/23 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 7:58 AM EDT


  • MO-Sen: AFSCME just threw down another hefty hunk of cash, pouring $700K into radio ads attacking Roy Blunt for voting against minimum wage hikes. According to The Hill, the union says that the ad is airing "statewide on over 200 radio stations outside the St. Louis and Kansas City media markets."
  • NH-Sen: Despite leading in the polls, AG Kelly Ayotte is joining third-party groups and launching a TV ad of her own attacking rival Bill Binnie as a "liberal." This comes in response to Binnie's new ad attacking Ayotte for her handling of the FRM scandal. NWOTSOTB, though Binnie's latest purchase is reportedly for some $430K.
  • WI-Sen: It's hard to keep up with Rand Paul and Sharron Angle, but really, the lamestream media is being unfair to Ron Johnson, who definitely deserves a starting spot on the Wingnut 9. Watch him bash this stand-up double into deep right field:
  • There's a reason Greenland was called Greenland. It was actually green at one point in time. And it's been, since, it's a whole lot whiter now.

  • FL-22: Absolute fucking maniac - and absolute fucking whiner - Allen West has been decrying the "Gestapo-like intimidation tactics" he fantasizes have been deployed by Ron Klein, Nancy Pelosi, and Barack Obama. What are his dark Orwellian warnings about? The fact that the Klein campaign has been sending a video tracker to West's events. Yep, exactly like the Holocaust. Good comparison to be making in Palm Beach.
  • IA-01: The American Future Fund, a conservative 501(c)4, claims it's preparing to spend "six figures" against Rep. Bruce Braley (D), not a guy generally considered to be vulnerable. Part of that is because Braley leads his opponent, lawyer and former congressional staffer Ben Lange, $630K to $110K in cash-on-hand. Let's see if they actually follow through, though.
  • MO-04: For the first time since the mid-90s, the Missouri Farm Bureau's political arm, FARM-PAC, is not endorsing Ike Skelton - and in fact, they're supporting Republican Vicky Hartzler. FARM-PAC cited Skelton's vote in favor of cap-and-trade as the main reason for their change of heart. The Skelton campaign did, however, announce they received the backing from another agricultural group, the Missouri Corn Growers Association.
  • ND-AL: Rep. Earl Pomeroy is out with a new ad attacking Republican Rick Berg for his long (28-year) tenure in the North Dakota state lege, as well as his support for privatizing Social Security. NWOTSOTB.
  • NM-02: Defenders of Wildlife has re-upped its ad buy against Steve Pearce, who is attempting a comeback bid against Rep. Harry Teague, throwing down another $125K. It's not clear whether this is the same ad from a couple of weeks ago, which one station refused to air.
  • NJ-03: Props to Jane Roh of the Courier-Post, a paper which serves southern New Jersey. She exposes Republican Jon Runyan's first television ad for the video press release that it is, reporting that it's a mere $8,400 (on FOX News and CNN), but notes - do I detect a touch of mockery here? - that it's "expected to swell to $12,500 this week." This is pretty much a joke buy anywhere, but in the NYC media market, this doesn't even rate with late-night infomercials.
  • NY-13: Rudy Giuliani's lent all kinds of support to Mike Grimm in his primary against Michael Allegretti, and now he's cut an ad for him as well, touting Grimm's experience with terrorism as a "9/11 first responder." I wonder if that's the tie that binds these two men, or if Rudy is making some long-term play against the entrenched GOP interests on Staten Island which, for whatever reason, have been backing Allegretti. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB, and incidentally, the FBI (and the Marines) have expressed displeasure with similar Grimm ads in the past.
  • NY-29: Teabagger Janice Volk failed to collect the necessary signatures to appear on the ballot as an independent... but now says she'll run as a write-in. Whatever. Anyhow, has anyone heard anything - anything at all - about Dem Matthew Zeller?
  • OH-18: The Ohio Elections Commission ruled late last week that Rep. Zack Space made false statements about Republican opponent Bob Gibbs in an attack ad, but is issuing no penalty - not even a letter of reprimand. Sort of makes you wonder why this commission exists in the first place. I also find it weird that Ohio even has some body that tries to act as a referee for political campaigns. Isn't that what voting is for?
  • Redistricting: Redistricting geeks, rejoice! Thanks to some key volunteer help, Dave's Redistricting App now has partisan data for North Carolina and New Mexico. But more help is needed to get the remaining states online. Check out Dave's diary to see how you can help.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/23 (Morning Edition)
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    Anyhow, has anyone heard anything - anything at all - about Dem Matthew Zeller?
    Not one single thing. Nada.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    I expect the Democrats have written this seat off
    Zeller was outraised by Tom Reed in the second quarter, which is quite a feat, because Reed has been a pretty bad fundraiser. The Democrats might just be expecting to combine this district with the 26th in redistricting.

    [ Parent ]
    Probally right
    Regarding redistricting. I mean changing up this district willbe able to secure upstate Dems like Scott Murphy and Bill Owens.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually, I think both parties have written this seat off.
    I'm pretty sure NY-29 wasn't on the NRCC's last list of ad buys. I think both parties are just cutting it loose and letting it run its natural partisan course. Dems have given up on it (and they should - we have no candidate, no bench, and many other seats to defend that would be easier holds in a normal year), and the GOP doesn't need to waste money here when it's pretty much a lock for them anyway.

    With this seat gone, NY-13 and NY-23 off the table thanks to GOP brawling, NY-25 off the table anyway, NY-01 and NY-19 probably safe unless something really goes wrong, and nobody really caring what happens to Arcuri, the biggest NY House race of the cycle is rapidly becoming NY-20.  


    [ Parent ]
    Makes Sense
    If Massa was still in office the NRCC was going to challenge it much due to how much of a poor fundraiser Reed is not that Massa is gone we got a Some Dude running to succeed to the D-Trip have written it off since Zeller has done squat and they got much bigger fish to fry. Now that the D-Trip have written if off the NRCC have written it off because Zeller is a crappy candidate and given the environment Reed can just ride in regardless of fundraising.

    As for the other NY based seats worth noting yeah only NY-20 is worth paying attention because Doug Hoffman is running again next to that is Mike Arcuri and that's because the man is a moron politics wise.  

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Confused reader checking in
    Um - that first sentence of your comment could badly do with some punctuation. :-)

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah sorry about that
    I realized it sfter the post was sent in. What I meant yo say was with Massa still in office the NRCC wasn't going to challenge the seat due to how much of a poor fundraiser Reec is and now that Massa has regigned in great shame the D-Trip has written off the race since Zeller is basically a some dude candidate who has don't squat and the NRCC is writing off that because of Zeller the GOP dosen't have to Reed because given he has a crappy candidate and given the climate he can coast right into Congress even with his bad fundraising.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    The NRCC
    Counts this one as in the bag, and the DCCC seems to agree.  

    [ Parent ]
    OH-18
    Answer: because it's Ohio.

    This is the same state where it's legal for a police officer to pull you over for speeding without radar "using professional judgment", and where it's also legal for the state to steal your identity for law enforcement to use in an undercover operation without actually telling you they're doing it. And need I remind you that the Ohio State Senate Democratic caucus is so useless that Capri Cafaro is considered up and coming young talent?

    Few state legislatures are more disconnected from reality than Ohio's, and considering we're discussing deliberative bodies here, that's really saying something.  


    Few state legislatures are more disconnected from reality than Ohio's
    You obviously never been to Pennsylvania have you?

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough.
    But, well, I did say "few".

    And Ohio and Pennsylvania are demographically very similar states, i.e. "this is what happens when clueless old people are allowed to vote in large numbers without the younger generations balancing them out". The last time that happened, George W. Bush was elected President by the Supreme Court. And considering there's more at stake in Ohio and Pennsylvania than in almost any other state (in terms of nationally important competitive races), I can't see much reason for optimism - except that California will at least have a Democratic governor in the fall, and maybe they can finally get rid of that idiotic incumbent protection gerrymander to make up for the stupidity of Ohio and Pennsylvania voters.



    [ Parent ]
    "this is what happens when clueless old people are allowed to vote in large numbers without the younger generations balancing them out".
    Thank You. I love my state to death because of it's history and culture politically I hate it. I hate that this state is so goddamn backwards when it comes to policy and no one has no new ideas because the voting comminity is run by seniors who think everything would be solved if the country was still ran like it was 1958 (i'm really not kidding when I say that). Nothing here is innovative since PA has put all their eggs in the steel industry. Now that it's been about 25-30 since steel has employed a great deal of people here there are no new jobs here and young people are moving to other states for work. Example my best friend John moved out of the state because he found a job in NC working for Cisco.

    As for whats stake in OH and PA. I see this:

    Ohio:

    Rob Portman as Senator
    I'm optimistic on Strickland
    no flips on House Seats

    Pennsylvania:

    Tom Corbett as Senator
    The jury is still out on PA-Sen
    I see alot of competitive races but I only see two flipping: PA-11 and PA-7.

    BTW you mention Ohio Cops in one of your posts, don't get me started on them. Espically the State Cops.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Whoa, "NO FLIPS ON HOUSE SEATS"???!!!......you really believe that???......
    I think we'll lose a couple there, Driehaus might already be a goner, and Kilroy looks to be the next in line to go down.  Boccieri could lose, even Sutton could go down if the national wave is big enough.  Space actually looks OK, but you never really know.  But that's 5 in varying degrees of jeopardy, to say none will go down is awfully optimistic.  I'm certainly rooting for you to be right, because losing zero in Ohio means we keep the House for sure and indeed by a substantial margin......but it just doesn't seem credible at all.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Oh, and now I saw your follow-up further below, thanks. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Driehaus is toast no matter what.
    He underperformed Obama by 3 points in a district that normally leans Republican, and only then because the district's large, normally nonvoting black population turned out for Obama. Plus, Boehner screwed him by spreading around Driehaus's home address to teabaggers out of spite. Everybody in his district who actually speaks seems to hate Steve Driehaus, which doesn't surprise me about Hamilton County (one of the white trashiest parts of Ohio outside of Cincinnati; the Kentucky parts of that metro area, counterintuitively, are actually nicer), but it certainly is unfortunate because he seems like a nice guy who actually wants to do well by his constituents. Too bad people are stupid.

    Dems targeted Chabot in 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008, and he narrowly survived the first three simply because blacks didn't turn out. He'll come back in 2010, just in time for them to redraw his district so he'll have the seat for life.

    If Dems have minimal casualties in the House, Driehaus may be the only member of the Ohio delegation that we lose, but there's no way Driehaus doesn't go down.  


    [ Parent ]
    agree that driehaus is going down, but this?
     "He'll come back in 2010, just in time for them to redraw his district so he'll have the seat for life."

    Now how do you propose that the republicans do that without endangering either Mike Turner or Jean Schmidt?  It's hard to think of how to do that without having the region potentially turn into a dummymander.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    Hmm.
    Portman is looking more and more inevitable at this point, despite his role in destroying Ohio's economy. Define irony.

    I truly don't know what to do with OH-Gov these days. It's long seemed like the one Midwestern Governor's race this year that wasn't totally hopeless, but I don't trust Ohio voters. Period. I think it'll be one of those "Jon Corzine moments" where the obviously damaged and unstable Republican candidate barely wins because everybody hates the incumbent Democrat. Blame suburban voters who don't think and can't tell the difference between Republicans of today and Republicans from 30 years ago.

    We could lose anywhere from 1-5 seats in Ohio, but are going to at least lose Driehaus no matter what.

    Tom Corbett is running for Governor, not Senator, but he's pretty much inevitable either way.

    I agree on PA-Sen. I hope Sestak can make up ground, and he's a great candidate to appeal to older voters because of his military record. The problem is that Toomey's playing the same "I'm just a good ol' moderate" game that Santorum played to get elected the first time, and the same idiots who voted for Santorum twice are falling for it - those that are still alive and registered to vote in PA (as opposed to Florida), that is. Sestak really needs to "go there" on Toomey's arch-conservative record and draw the parallels to Santorum. Unlike Ellsworth here in Indiana (who's been a miserable disappointment as a statewide candidate so far and seems more interested in holding his old House seat than actually running for Senate), Sestak seems to be holding back for a reason - to clobber Toomey at just the right moment, and I think he can do it. The question is whether or not enough people will get the right idea and won't just vote for Toomey because he's not a Democrat - I think we're going to have that problem a lot this year. Sigh.

    As for the House, jeez, there are more competitive House races in PA than in any other state, so it's difficult to remember to count them all. PA-04 and PA-10 are easy holds with perfect matching incumbents. If Critz beat Burns in a low-turnout special in PA-12, he should also be fine in the general, though maybe not in 2012. I'm hoping that Murphy stays up in PA-08, but Berks County voters are notoriously uninformed, so I only rate it as Lean D. Kanjorski is an almost certain loss, as is the open seat in PA-07 (just because Meehan is such a good candidate, esp. this year). I'm also not the least bit sanguine about PA-03, which will be close, and probably in a direction Dems won't like. (Though I'm also no fan of Kathy "we need to extend the Bush tax cuts because people like lower taxes" Dahlkemper, who strikes me as an idiot at best, so I won't shed any tears unless losing PA-03 costs us the House.)    


    [ Parent ]
    Why is Portman inevitable?
    The numbers have put this at toss-up pretty consistently.

    [ Parent ]
    yikes, just saw that someone posted the fundraising numbers
    further downthread.  Very very ugly.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah irony is great word to sum that up
    I'm holding out hope for Strickland though. Fisher not so much.

    Sestak can come back once he raises money to get on TV and hammer Toomey for being a faux moderate. Good news is the DSCC is announcing there going to spend alot of money in PA allowing for Sestak to have a surge like he had in the primary. Very good.

    You could lost 1-5 House seats as there are about 5 that are competiive and most will be close but I only seeing Driehaus.

    PA has alot of competive races but I only seeing two flip and that's PA-11 and PA-7. PA-4, 10 will be fine. PA-8 will be competive but I see a Murphy win. (BTW Berks is not in PA-8, Bucks County and a sliver of Philly make up the district). As for PA-3 I get what your saying regarding Dahlkemper but you have to remember that outside of the city of Erie, the rest of the areas are pretty conservative (like Butler County for example). So she has to say shit like that I see it close and Dahlkemper winning but if she loses I won't be suprised as she dosen't seem to be a moron like you claim, maybe not polished like Pat Murphy, Jason Altmire and Chris Carney.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Unlike Ellsworth here in Indiana (who's been a miserable disappointment as a statewide candidate so far and seems more interested in holding his old House seat than actually running for Senate
    Well you have to remember he was forced into this position thsnks that Evan Bayh retiring like on the day of the foling deadline and they looked to Ellsworth to be the best to hold it. But that's my opinion on it. Ask Hoosierdem he'll probally agree withme on that.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    I
    will admit I have not been that impressed with Ellsworth so far. I can't believe I am saying this but I think Hill would be doing better right now. Then again it is still early, Ellsworth could surprise me. Not saying he is going to win but he could still end up running a great campaign and come close. Fuck Evan Bayh. Sorry for the language but that dick just pisses me the hell off. Sorry for the language again. He would be doing fine now, but no he wants to be Governor and god forbid he actually has to campaign and spend the money he wants to save for 2012. He could have done both. You can easily win two statewide races with ten million. Plus he would have raised more when it was clear he was facing a competitive race. Maybe I will support a primary challenger in 2012. Probably not, but I will consider it. I can't believe the son of the great Birch Bayh turned out to be so dickish. One point though. Ellsworth and Hill likely knew about his retirement before we did. That is what I think anyway. His retirement was very well planned out that is for sure. He purposely waited for the last day so no top tier Republicans like Pence or Daniels (not that he would want it) could run. From what I have heard Pence was PISSED. This would have been an excellent year for him to move up and Bayh's dirty business spoiled it. It was really a brilliant move on Bayh's part. Honestly had Pence ran the seat would be safe GOP and we would be talking about Pence 2012. At least if Coats wins this year we can beat him in 2016 if it is a more neutral year, that is if he runs again. Not sure if he would or not. The same can't be said for Pence.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Do you think
    Evan Bayh will face a decent primary challenge if he runs again in 2012? If I was Pence, I'd be pissed to. I bet he is hoping Lugar retires. If not, his next chance probably wouldn't be until 2016, when he'd likely have a primary from Stutzman. Unless he runs for Gov, which, you know more about than me, I don't think he is too interested in. Do you think he is?  

    [ Parent ]
    No.
    Hill really wants to be Governor but he is not stupid enough to primary Evan Bayh. Bayh is not loved among progressives but Hill is really not either. Evansville's Mayor has also shown interest and him not running for Congress was a good hint of that. He could be somewhat competitive but would not beat him. The establishment would be very firmly behind Bayh, he would be a shoo in in November and they and I for that matter want a dem in the Governs Mansion, even if it is Evan Bayh.  

    I have heard that Stutzman is interested in running for Senate in 2012. I am confused. Are you asking if Stutzman is interested in Governor or Pence? If Stutzman I have heard nothing that he is interested in running for Governor. I know a mildly connected county GOP chairman, I'll ask him but he is a real gossip and I think would have told me already if he heard anything. If Pence runs for an office besides Congress in 2012 it will be Senate. He stands little chance against Bayh for Governor and he knows that. I do not think he is worried about beating Stutzman in a primary. The tea party and the establishment LOVES Pence, much more than they love Stutzman. Pence was the only IN R incumbent not to get a challenger this year. Pence would beat Stutzman in a primary easy. Skillman has all but said she will run for Governor in 2012, she may chicken out with Bayh, I'm not sure. In 2016 it all depends on if Bayh is popular or not. If he runs for Prez and opens up the seat I could see Pence running but I think he would prefer Senate because he wants to be Prez. Primarying Coats would not be hard. I have heard that Stutzman is interested in running for Senate in 2012. I am confused. Are you asking if Stutzman is interested in Governor or Pence? If Stutzman I have heard nothing that he is interested in running for Governor. I know a mildly connected county GOP chairman, I'll ask him but he is a real gossip and I think would have told me already if he heard anything. If Pence runs for an office besides Congress in 2012 it will be Senate. He stands little chance against Bayh for Governor and he knows that. I do not think he is worried about beating Stutzman in a primary. The tea party and the establishment LOVES Pence, much more than they love Stutzman. Pence was the only IN R incumbent not to get a challenger this year. Pence would beat Stutzman in a primary easy. Skillman has all but said she will run for Governor in 2012, she may chicken out with Bayh, I'm not sure. If he stays in Congress in 2016 it all depends on if Bayh is popular or not. If Bayh runs for Prez and opens up the seat I could see Pence running for Gov but I think he would prefer Senate because he wants to be Prez someday. Primarying Coats would not be hard. Personally if I was a betting man I would say that Pence will be my Senator in January 2013 and Bayh my Governor.            

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    [ Parent ]
    Oh Crap
    I pasted the same thing twice for the second paragraph. Just read this version and ignore the top because I put changes in the second and it will be hard to read up there.

    I have heard that Stutzman is interested in running for Senate in 2012. I am confused. Are you asking if Stutzman is interested in Governor or Pence? If Stutzman I have heard nothing that he is interested in running for Governor. I know a mildly connected county GOP chairman, I'll ask him but he is a real gossip and I think would have told me already if he heard anything. If Pence runs for an office besides Congress in 2012 it will be Senate. He stands little chance against Bayh for Governor and he knows that. I do not think he is worried about beating Stutzman in a primary. The tea party and the establishment LOVES Pence, much more than they love Stutzman. Pence was the only IN R incumbent not to get a challenger this year. Pence would beat Stutzman in a primary easy. Skillman has all but said she will run for Governor in 2012, she may chicken out with Bayh, I'm not sure. If he stays in Congress in 2016 it all depends on if Bayh is popular or not. If Bayh runs for Prez and opens up the seat I could see Pence running for Gov but I think he would prefer Senate because he wants to be Prez someday. Primarying Coats would not be hard. Personally if I was a betting man I would say that Pence will be my Senator in January 2013 and Bayh my Governor.                

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    [ Parent ]
    Sorry
    Forgot gov and sen races in 2016. In 2016, I meant he'd have a primary from Stutz for the Sen seat when I think Coats will retire. I wonder if Skillman doesn't run if Pence does, just to spite Bayh and deny him a very easy race after the way he fucked him over this year.  

    [ Parent ]
    Hoosierdem,
    what do you think redistricting is going to look like? Obviously that could affect Hill's plans in particular.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    CA
    Don't be so sure that CA will have a Dem governor. As far as I can tell Brown has run no ads, is keeping a very low profile, hasn't said a word about how he would solve the state's structural budget problem, and hasn't proposed anything specific on any issue except education.  

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    He hasnt ran any ads
    and is still generally polling a few points ahead.  You can only go up once you actually start campaigning.

    [ Parent ]
    Don't Get Me Started
    New York State Senate. FTW.

    As one state senator replied when asked about returning to the chamber's dysfunctionality, he would settle for dysfunctionality because the word implies some degree of function. The NYS Senate is for the most part non-functional.


    [ Parent ]
    Leadership Crisis and the Budget
    That sums up the NY Senate in terms of dysfunction.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    You forgot criminality and corruption!
    You got domestic abusers, violent thugs and petty crooks (and that's just in the Senate). The Speaker of the NYS Assembly is charging 18% interest to the families of victims of 9/11 and Majority Leader of the Senate is Pedro Espada (Which I'm not sure is even much of an improvement from the recently convicted Joe Bruno)!

    I mean no place is worst than NYS. Here both the Dems and the GOP are equally corrupt and cant agree on anything. Partisan labels and ideology mean next to nothing and things are run like territorial fights amoung warloads.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Hey I knew all about that
    I just wante to sum it up in easy terms. This post would go on forever if I talked about the corruption about the NYS.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    NJ-03
    NJ-03 is in the Philadelphia media market, not New York's. Obviously, $12,500 is a trivial buy there, too.

    It's in both
    Ocean County is in the NY DMA, and the district is split 50/50 between Ocean and Burlington/little piece of Camden.

    [ Parent ]
    True
    But for the most part, the Philly market consists of the maority of it. I mean Adler hometown of Cherry Hill is just a hop, skip and jump away from Philly.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    50/50
    Population wise it's 50/50.  Ocean County gets mostly NY TV, even though vacationers from Philly invade in the Summer.  My friend and I used to talk about how the McDonalds in Tuckerton (2 hours from NY, 1 hour from Philly) would have all the NY market's specials and gave away Yankees and Mets stuff.  So it's closer to Philly, but on the books and for ad purposes it's 100% NY.

    [ Parent ]
    It's a cable buy on FoxNews & CNN so media markets mean nothing.
    Cable buys are usually bought from the local cable provider and usally can be targeted to very small areas. Meaning these adds will not be see on broadcast channels in NYC or Philly (whose ads are expensive) but only locally in district.

    These ads can be very cheap and can run as low as $15 to $100 for each airing.

    For a local cable buy $12,500 on CNN & Fox News can acually buy a lot of ads over a short period of time.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Correction
    For Ohio Driehaus is toast and i'm keeping a close eye on Boccieri. Tom Ganley and Bob Gibbs will be close but luckically there facing two strong incumbents in Zack Space and Betty Sutton.

    BTW we bring up how Rob Portman got mad money in his campaign account, exactly how much money does he have compared to Fisher?

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    Fundraising As of June 30
    Portman: about $8.9 million cash on hand ($11 million raised)
    Fisher: about $1.3 million coh ($5 million raised)
    http://www.opensecrets.org/rac...

    Fisher had to spend a lot of his funds on his primary.

    For future reference: www.opensecrets.org is a good source for the official fundraising numbers reported to the FEC.


    [ Parent ]
    Jesus the man a political ATM
    Hate to say it but as a Dem i'm impressed.

    Yeah Fisher is toast. I just realized that. I mean how can you compete with a warchest like that. Plus if the environment wasn't bas enough one thing that has bogged down Fisher was his messy primary with Jennifer Brunner which drained alot of his money and he a bit of a unknown as Portman was a longtime Congressman and worked in the WH while Fisher yes is Lt. Gov is only there because Strickland picked him. Like to see if it was someone else running againist Portman like Tim Ryan. Shame because we can beat Portmsn because of his record. But his money advantage is a huge disadvantage. That and despite him being responsible for jobs getting shipped out of OH as trade rep. One thing Portmsn has is his ability to become a faux moderate. Damn shame. Oh well sometimes you win, sometimes we lose and we can't win them all.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Fisher Can Win
    Looking at the non-Rasmussen polls, the race is very close. An Ipsos-Reuters poll this month has Portman up 7, but two polls from PPP and Quinipiac from late June had Fisher slightly ahead. http://www.pollster.com/polls/...

    Also, Ohio has one of the best Democratic state party organizations in the country. At some point, still more money doesn't help (see, e.g. Corzine and many other self-funders who have poured millions of dollars into their campaigns and lost). Money is necessary, but not sufficient.


    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    Quinipiac has had some really off results and I wouldn't be surprised if this is one. PPP's sample predicted an Obama +6 state in an Obama +5 state. So they are predicting Obama voters to come out in bigger numbers. So I'd say Rasmussen (who you disregard for no reason) is probably right, at Portman +4.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Fisher is not toast
    It's just ridiculous to say that at this point.  Toast is Blanche Lincoln, and Fisher is not in her position.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah Lincoln is toast
    I saw a poll from Scotty Ras that had Boozman had 65 percent of the vote. I know it's Ras but I can believe that.

    OK maybe it's bad working Fisher maybe isn't toast but he's really behine, maybe not so much polling wise but money wise and that important if you want to win.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    You're forgetting OH-15 and OH-16.
    I have little hope for Kilroy, who underperformed Obama by 8 points in a relatively even district in a good year. Her only hope here is that people seem pretty blah about Stivers, too, and the GOP didn't find a better candidate.

    Boccieri is facing Renacci, who's a weak opponent and kinda clueless, but it's also a relatively Republican seat held by a longtime Republican for 30 years, and common sense doesn't necessarily apply when you're talking about old people who vote, as you well know.

    Driehaus is doomed, as everyone knows. Space, I think, will be fine, and will have that job for years to come. He seems to fit his district as well as Charlie Wilson and Jason Altmire (two other safe Appalachian incumbents) fit theirs. Sutton's race will be closer than it should be because Ganley's made of money, but the guy's such a sleazebag that I think the "Whitman effect" will apply here. (As a side note, when a car with Ohio plates and a big "GANLEY" license plate frame cut me off in traffic the other day, I burst out laughing.)  


    [ Parent ]
    In the previous post
    I mentioned that i'm keeping an eye on Boccierri. True this seat is a GOP held forever by Ralph Regula. But Boccierri ws able to dispose a top tier candidate and when he was running and he seems to be a strong incumbent. That's why i'm not writing him off like everyone is writing off Driehaus. Sad since I liked the man.

    As for Kilroy I think she can eak it out that's why i'm not paying too much attention like with Boccierri.

    Oh BTW Jason Altmire isn't really applachian, it's really a middle to upper class suburban district.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Ganley
    Is a huge sleazebag. After all, anyone who has a key role in taking down one of the nation's worst mobs and puts his life in danger to do it, is a terrible person.  

    [ Parent ]
    He's mixed.
      Heroic at one time, and sadly bigoted/idiotic at another.  If Republican stops nominating birthers/bigots, we'll stop making fun of them.  OK, I would still make fun of them.

    24, Male, GA-05

    [ Parent ]
    FL-22
    and didn't West use that phrase in relation to a tracker who was the grandson of Holocaust survivors?

    What a dick. Ron Klein might be a candidate for me next time we play the "what incumbent would you save" game.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    OH commission
    I also find it weird that Ohio even has some body that tries to act as a referee for political campaigns. Isn't that what voting is for?

    I'm actually glad to hear such a commission exists, though it's a pity it's apparently a toothless one. Negative ads, even ones that spread outright lies, deceptions and misinformation, have proven to work, electorally, in the past. So you can't solely rely on the actual election results to reprimand candidates who peddle falsehoods. Plus, any election result is influenced by so many factors, it's impossible to read it as a repudiation of one or the other ad or speech.

    Moreover, despite the rapt day-to-day attention people like us spend on such things, the actual election results will primarily reflect the basic fundamentals of the state of the economy, unemployment etc, as well as things like incumbency and national approval of the ruling party, anyway, so relying on the voters to punish a deceitful campaigner is a fools errand most of the times anyway.

    If anything, I'd say it's up to the press rather than the voters to fulfill this particular watchdog function. And they've started to do that better now, with the fact-check genre rising, but you know they're still underperforming this task - plus, any smackdown by this or that newspaper will just be dismissed as a partisan attack anyway.

    So I'm all for a commission with some form of formal authority to act on the most outrageously deceitful ads. I have no idea how the one by Zack Space ranks, and of course the commission would need to have some kind of teeth to fulfuill its task (and be thoroughly independent, and I'm not sure how to secure that), but the aspiration to have such an arbitrator, ruling on individual ads that cross the line, is a good thing in my book.

    /European observer

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


    Hmm...
    I had always thought that Greenland was warmer when the vikings first settled it, and they only left after the climate became colder. (At least thats what I learned from the history channel)

    Greenland
    I don't think Greenland was ever very green, at least over the past several centuries. In any case, it sounds like a pretty idiotic, unsubstantiated thing for a serious Senate candidate to say without checking. 81% of the island is covered by an ice sheet.

    From Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G...

    The name Greenland comes from the early Scandinavian settlers. In the Icelandic sagas, it is said that Norwegian-born Erik the Red was exiled from Iceland for murder. He, along with his extended family and thralls, set out in ships to find a land rumoured to lie to the northwest. After settling there, he named the land Grœnland ("Greenland"), supposedly in the hope that the pleasant name would attract settlers.[7][8]

    Greenland was also called Gruntland ("Ground-land") and Engronelant (or Engroneland) on early maps. Whether green is an erroneous transcription of grunt ("ground"), which refers to shallow bays, or vice versa, is not known. The southern portion of Greenland (not covered by glaciers) is green in the summer.


    [ Parent ]
    Naming of Greenland and Iceland
    The naming of Greenland and Iceland is kind of an interesting story.  Apparently Greenland was named Greenland to attract settlers there instead of the warmer and nicer Iceland.  Essentially it was the first example of a group trying to keep new residents out of their paradise.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Greenland
     Was originally called Godsen's Land because an explorer by that name discovered it before Erik the Red.  

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  


    [ Parent ]
    FL-Gov R primary: great test of PPP's methodology vs. everyone else......
    Everyone else has McCollum retaking the lead over Scott the past few weeks.  The Q-poll's latest confirms today.

    But PPP is the lone dissenter and still has Scott up, indeed by a decent margin.

    PPP also gives Meek a blowout margin over Greene now, while all others have Meek up much more modestly.

    We're going to find out who's naughty and who's nice in polling methodology, and Santa will reward them accordingly.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Not everyone
    Most polls have McCollum, but there were a few showing Scott leading. The last two polls (PPP and Mason-Dixon) show Scott coming back, so he may have the momentum now. Hopefully I am wrong.  

    [ Parent ]
    If you are
    I bet the cause is the "Obama's Mosque" ad.

    [ Parent ]
    Ward Research
    is polling Hawaii Governor Democratic Primary and found:

    Abercrombie 49%
    Hannemann 44%

    Who do we want to win here? Surely we can try and get the most liberal candidate in a state like Hawaii?

    http://www.staradvertiser.com/...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Abercrombie's More Liberal
    And he's definitely who I want to see win this race.  

    [ Parent ]
    I've heard Hannemann is
    homophobic which of course sets me against him since I'm gay (and I'm considering going to grad school in Hawaii). I'm slightly annoyed at Abercrombie for running for re-election in 2008 but I think I'm pulling for him. If this poll is right it's probably bad news for Abercrombie because he had a double digit lead a few months ago and the primary isn't for another month.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Abercrombie, hands down
    Hanemann is too fake.

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

    [ Parent ]
    Abercrombie will sign the civil unions bill
    while Hannemann won't.  Nuff said.  And that's only civil unions!

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    many other users pointed to the civil unions but I have also heard that Hannemann is a DLC fiscal conservative type. Even if I am wrong in thinking that the civil union thing is enough for me to support Abercrombie. Both look heavily favored in the general.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    TX-23
    Canseco 43% (R)
    Rodriguez 37% (D)

    A 17 point advantage for generic Republicans in that district.

    I wonder what the Hispanic population they sampled was.

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    cq
    CQ Politics also updated a lot of ratings.  Most tilted to GOP, but I think they "safened" the CT seats.

    [ Parent ]
    What changed in CT?
    besides the frontrunners winning their primaries as expected?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    i wondered the same thing
    ...

    [ Parent ]
    More great news from Talk Business
    http://arkansasnews.com/2010/0...

    Crawford is at 48, Causey 32.

    I wonder if the Dems in the legislature will draw one safe Dem district in redistricting now that the dam has burst and they can't rely on historical tendencies to keep electing Democrats. It's easy to do -- connect the counties along the Mississippi with Pulaski County.


    Hmm...
    Crawford lives in Jonesboro, which is in the northeast part of the state. I would move the 1st up there, and move the 2nd down to cover the rural Republican counties currently in Mike Ross's district. This is turn would move Ross's district east to the Democratic areas in Pine Bluff, and along the Mississippi. Little Rock would probably be divided between two districts. The problem is Ross would probably not live in this district anymore.

    Were probably looking at:
    Rick Crawford - AR-01 - Jonesboro
    Tim Griffin - AR-02 - I don't know where he lives...
    Stephen Womack - AR-03 - Rogers
    Mike Ross - AR-04

    Either way, Democrats will control redistricting in Arkansas and there is no excuse to draw a map that has Ross winning a R+10 or more district. When he vacates it, that's gone.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    Griffin lives in Little Rock.


    [ Parent ]
    Not real surprised
    AR-1 is currently # 17 on my list of seats likely to flip from Dem to GOP.  I don't think Woolridge has endorsed Causey yet, which doesn't help.

    [ Parent ]
    He hasn't
    He has been trashing Causey and talking up Crawford, ala Artur Davis. Some of his advisers have endorsed Crawford.  

    [ Parent ]
    Missouri Farm Bureau
    Why are they against cap and trade? Doesn't global warming adversely affect agriculture?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    The linked article
    Contains the answers that you seek.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, it did
    "What also came up again and again was the cap and trade issue," Bassett said. "Cap and trade, as it was passed in the House, should it become law, would be devastating to agriculture in fuel and fertilizer, which would drive up feed costs. Electric bills would go up. It would affect every area of our lives ... If I had to put my finger on one issue, that I heard more than any other issue in that meeting, that was it."

    Short-sighted, in my opinion, but at least I understand their reasoning.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen How to lose an unlosable race
    Here's a good article on the CT-Sen race and some of the problems Blumenthal is having:
    http://www.ctpost.com/opinion/...

    I've been worried about this race for awhile. I fear that this has the potential to be another unlosable race that the Dems lose this cycle.

    I think this article hits the nail on the head about his campaign's problems.

    One thing they left out about the cash advatage McMahon has is that Blumethal is just as wealthy as McMahon is yet he refuses to self finace his campaign. Blumenthal is relying 100% on raising money and getting donations while she pours millions of here own cash into the race.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    I
    could believe it. McMahon literally has millions upon millions to eMeg this race into tossup status. Its surprising that Blumenthal has been making all these mistakes since he handled the Vietnam flap very very well. Personally I think Blumenthal should start hitting her on WWE hard like now...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Not what I'd call a "good article" at all. Rather, a lot of hyperbole......
    I don't question that Blumenthal's stump messaging has been poor.

    But he's still winning, he's on the air, and the ads I've seen are pretty good.

    Yes he needs to hit McMahon, I haven't seen negative ads yet.  Hope he gets on that soon.

    I don't question that he ultimately could still pull a Coakley.

    But he hasn't done that yet.  To say he's doomed, as this columnist writes, is absurd.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    If Greenland used to be greener,
    does that mean that Iceland used to be icier?

    History Lesson
    According to Viking lore, Eric the Red named the large new island he discovered "Greenland" so that people would move there. He was afraid that if he named it "Snowland" or "Iceland 2"or the like it would have remained the desolate empty place that it is.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    AFSCME
    Ah, a $700K ad buy on spread oout on radio stations in rural Missourri outside the population centers.

    Am I the only one who doesn't udnerstand who this ad is targeted ad?  Or why an ad about minimum wage isn't targeted at KC and St Louis?


    Because Carnahan will easily win KC and St. Louis.
    She needs help everywhere else.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    that's the 2D analysis
    Of course she's going to win the urban areas, but the question is, by how much?  Put it this way, is it easier to convince someone who doesn't agree with you to support you because of an ad, or convince someone who agrees with you but isn't planning on voting to support you?  Dems can win big MO with big big turnout in KC and the Lou.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah its not a good strategy
    to focus on GOP areas where the trend is deeply against us.  Minimum wage is an issue that plays better in urban areas as opposed to rural areas.  It's an issue that can help drive turnout in urban areas as opposed to rural areas also.

    Carnahan needs to maximize returns in urban areas, not fight windmills in rural areas.


    [ Parent ]
    You need to do both
    Follow the lesson McCaskill learned between 2004 and 2006 - big wins in the urban areas are not enough without also holding down the margins in the rural areas.

    [ Parent ]
    Its the wrong strategy
    While I agree winning big in urban and holding down margins in rural is the winning strategy (and it is in every state that has large urban centers but the rural areas are highly GOP), focusing money on a minimum wage ad in rural areas is not a winning strategy.  I have no idea who the target audience is.

    I know the belief is (with some people) that minimum wage is even more important in rural areas due to rural areas having a lower cost of living and as such the minimum wage means more.  But I've never really been a big believer in that theory.  I think as an issue it plays SO much better in urban areas.

    Is there no labor priority the AFSCME could tout on Carnahans behalf that would play well in rural areas?


    [ Parent ]
    Wha?
    Uh, the minimum wage issue plays just as well in rural areas as it does in the cities [the main opposition is wealthy suburbanites]. After all, in 2006, Missourians voted to raise the minimum wage by a whopping 76% to 24%.

    And Carnahan's biggest strength is she has the ability to win rural votes, especially in her ancestral homeland in the southeast. It's a good strategy, especially because focusing on the cities (or even appearing to) will massively piss off rural voters who might vote for the right Democrat...especially if her last name is Carnahan.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    Good
    news for Sestak. Chuck Hagel's going to endorse him tomorrow.

    http://www.politico.com/news/s...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    Good news?
    If true, this is beyond good news, this is spectacular news.

    While Hagel probably isn't all that known in PA, this is a great get.  He is a former Senator who, if not loved by all Rpeublicans, was certainly hugely popular with his constituents.

    This also more than counters Toomey's fundraising with Snowe recently.  Toomey getting a moderate Republican is less meaningful than Sestak getting a former Republican Senator on his side.

    I wonder what % of the military (active and retired) vote Sestak will get in PA.  He really needs to push hard for that vote.  


    [ Parent ]
    Um Pennsylvanians don't know or care who Chuck Hagel is......
    Hagel's sole claim to quasi-celebrity was his sharp turn against the Iraq War, and that is now distant history to voters who even remember him.

    Most Pennsylvania voters have never heard of Chuck Hagel in the first place.

    A part of me wants to become excited about this, and I really am glad that Hagel is endorsing Sestak, but really my head says this is not going to matter one iota in the election.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I
    would say that most do not know who Collins (or was it Snowe?) is either but Toomey got some good press out of that. The Hagel endorsement will probably make the local news and Hagel could help fundraise. Or it is possible that Hagel cuts an advertisement for Sestak, that could be great if they did it right. Really play him up as a bipartisan guy, you know with a former Republican Senator by him. Probably not a big deal but certainly not bad either.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    They know more than you think
    They know that a Republican supporting a Democrat means something.  They know that people who served in the military know more about that than those who didn't.  They know they don't want a strict partisan from either side (see rejection of Santorum).

    It all lays into a bigger narrative.  If you think showing him being endorsed by Bloomberg, Hagel and whoever comes next won't play well you're probably too pessimistic.

    And don't forget, the secret issue in this election is the wars.  None of us know how that issue plays out, but I think ti comes up more during the campaigns than people think.


    [ Parent ]
    V. Good
       We see your moderate endorser (Collins), and raise you one who stands firm on his principles (Hagel).  

      I hope Hagel will do a commercial with Sestak.

    24, Male, GA-05


    [ Parent ]
    Just hope he doesnt talk about the Ground Zero mosque...
    like Sestak's last out of town endorser did. I thought Bloomberg's endorsement last week would be good news for Sestak but they spent the whole coverage talking about the mosque at the WTC site.

    Which was not helpful at all. Kind of tone deaf on the part of his campaign to bring Bloomy to PA in the middle of the Cordoba controversy.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]

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