Braun Research for cn|2 (8/16-18, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):
Jack Conway (D): 42 (31)
Rand Paul (R): 41 (41)
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±3.5%)
cn|2 is reporting this one as a tie, and it essentially is -- down to decimal points, Conway leads by a margin of 41.7 to 41.2 for the rogue ophthalmologist. (Update: Not that we think it's legit to go to so many significant digits...)
Rand Paul's campaign is questioning Braun for its gyrating results, but cn|2 notes that other results from the last two polls, such as Obama's approval (40%) and the generic ballot (a 12-point GOP advantage), have been consistent. Perhaps the shift is legit, and perhaps it could be explained in part by Paul's controversial comments on how the illicit drug trade in Kentucky is not a "real pressing issue" and that federal funding for anti-drug initiatives should be pulled. That sort of talk didn't go over too well with law enforcement officials in Eastern Kentucky, where the problem is particularly pronounced; it's worth noting that the Congressional District with the biggest jump in support for Conway was the Eastern 5th CD. Conway trailed in that district by 24-38 two weeks ago, and now trails by only 38-42. (Yes, the usual caveat about obese margins of error applies for small sub-samples like these.)
