Washington & Wyoming Primary Results Thread

2:07am: Well, things have pretty much ground to a halt in Washington, so we’ll probably just leave it for here for the night. Currently 60% are reporting in WA-Sen (with Murray at 46, Rossi at 34, and Didier at 12), but bear in mind that ballots are going to keep straggling in over the next few days (since they can be postmarked today). Only half of King County is reporting, for instance. At any rate, I did some rough extrapolation and it doesn’t look like the final needle will budge much: I’m projecting Murray 47, Rossi 33, Didier 11.

1:28am: We’ve gotten some more Santa Cruz Co. precincts reporting (now that they’ve stopped playing Jenga). That takes us up to 59% reporting, but with 91% of votes in by our figuring. It’s 49-43 for the GOP’s Blakeslee, and that’s still what we’re projecting as the final result in California.

1:03am: The AP has called Jaime Herrera for the 2nd spot in WA-03. She’s at 27, to Heck’s 32. That’s with 71% reporting. (In case you cared, they also called Jim Watkins as Jay Inslee’s opponent in WA-01. Inslee is at 57, Watkins at 26.)

1:01am: There’s 39% reporting in CA-SD15. But by our calculations, 87% of the votes have been counted, and we’re still on track for a 49-43 finale.

12:53am: Wow, it looks like we might go into overtime in Wyoming after all. We’ve hit 486 of 486, and Mead’s lead over Meyer fell to 714 votes (30,272 to 29,558). That’s less than a 1% margin (28.7%-28.1%), so Mead isn’t clear anymore. So, naturally, no AP call yet.

12:48am: Well, we’ve added 4 more precincts in WY-Gov, taking us up to 481/486. They don’t seem to have been much help for Rita Meyer, as she still trails Matt Mead by 1,250 votes. The automatic recount line is a 1% margin (again, thanks to Aaron Blake), and Mead’s edge over Meyer is currently 28.9%-27.6%, so he’s clear of the zone.

12:39am: Still no new reports in CA-SD15. We’d like to remind the good folks of Santa Cruz County that Proposition 19 hasn’t passed yet!

12:31am: One other small piece of bad news, although this is pretty down-in-the-weeds for Washington. Jim Johnson won another term on the state Supreme Court, beating Stan Rumbaugh 63-37 (for some technical reason that I don’t know, probably because it’s a nonpartisan office and there were only 2 contestants, this race is decided tonight). Johnson is the lone across-the-boards conservative on SCOWa. (The rest of you are probably now saying “You only have one conservative on your Supreme Court?!?”)

12:29am: We’re estimating 86% of the vote is in in CA SD-15. It’s still listed at 49-43 Blakeslee, and that’s what we’re still projecting in the end, too. Worth noting: the final numbers last time were 49-42, so, apparently, nobody changed their mind over the last month.

12:24am: We’re up to 56% reporting in WA-Sen. The latest report includes all of Benton Co. in eastern Washington (Didier’s home turf), so there’s a small Didier surge and Murray erosion: Murray 46, Rossi 34, Didier 12 now. Half of King is still outstanding, though, so look for Murray to push upward again.

12:20am: If you’re looking for something interesting to watch in Washington, try the GOP side in WA-09, where there’s a good establishment/teabagger duel for the right to face the probably safe Adam Smith. Currently, Pierce Co. Commissioner Dick Muri (a pretty good get in terms of his office, but a zero on the fundraising front) leads 2008 challenger Jim Postma 24-19 (with Smith at 53).

12:18am: Cue up inevitable lamestream media narrative of OMG! Mama Grizzly fail!!1! Is Sarah Palin losing her touch? (With probably no mention of G.H.W. Bush’s support of 4th place Colin Simpson.)

12:15am: Just like that, Campbell Co. in Wyoming reports. Mead won 31-23 there over Meyer, so that pads his lead a bit. Statewide, it’s Mead 29, Meyer 28, Micheli 27, Simpson 16 (with Mead’s lead over Meyer at 1,300 votes). That’s with 477 of 486 precincts total reporting, so I think this is pretty much over and done, in favor of Mead. (But no AP call yet.)

12:13am: The AP has declared victors in WA-08, as Suzan DelBene has gained some ground, though it’s still not a convincing win. It’s Reichert 48, DelBene 27. Also, they’ve called WA-02 for Rick Larsen and John Koster. It’s actually pretty close, at 44-41 for Larsen, but there’s also 10% going to random other Dems.

12:11am: The AP has partially called WA-03. They’ve given a check mark to Denny Heck (at 31), and presumably Jaime Herrera (at 27) will get one soon. Still 65% reporting.

12:09am: We’re up to 89% reporting in Wyoming, rattling toward a conclusion, and Mead is pulling a smidge ahead of Meyer. He’s up 29-28 over Meyer, by 750 votes. Nothing from Campbell Co. has reported yet, but it’s worth noting that neighboring county Johnson Co. went for Mead, 37-30 over Meyer.

12:07am: Wow, here’s a fun fact I just learned (thanks to Aaron Blake’s Twitter feed). Pete Gosar, the guy who just lost the WY-Gov D primary, is the brother of rogue dentist Paul Gosar, the guy who’s expected to win the GOP primary in AZ-01.

12:00am: White smoke is pouring out of the SSP Labs mainframe, although we don’t know who the new pope will be. What we do know is that we’re projecting the 49-43 margin for Blakeslee in CA-SD15 is predicted to continue all the way to the end, with all vote-by-mail having been reported there. (Even though we’re only at 27% reporting, 80% of the vote has reported because so much of it was by mail.)

11:56pm: We’re up to 65% reporting in WA-03, but things have flattened out. It’s Heck 31, Herrera 27, Hedrick 14, Castillo 12, Crist 11. That’s GOP 53-Dems 44, if you’re playing along at home, not an especially good omen for November.

11:52pm: Sam Blakeslee (R) pulls into the lead in CA-SD15, thanks to some reports from his turf at the southern end of the district (SLO and Santa Barbara Cos.). Now he leads over Laird, 49-43. With Santa Cruz not having reported much of anything yet, though, this could tighten again.

11:48pm: The AP also just called the WY-Gov D primary for Leslie Petersen, who’s up 48-39 over Pete Gosar. We’re up to 85% reporting. And we’re a long way from a winner in the R primary, although the Ron Micheli bulge seems to have passed. It’s now 28 each for Mead and Meyer (with Meyer up by about 50), with Micheli down at 26 and Simpson at 15. Looks like the biggest outstanding clot of votes is all of Campbell County (Gillette).

11:45pm: The AP has already called WA-Sen for Murray and Rossi. Murray’s at 47, Rossi’s at 34, with Didier at 10 and Akers at 2. That’s with 45% reporting, but without any of the WA-07 part (i.e., Seattle) of King County reporting yet.

11:41pm: We’re up to 45% reporting in Washington, and that includes a sizable part of King County now. That moves the needle quite a bit, to Murray 48, Rossi 34, and Didier 10.

11:38pm: I guess we should check in on WA-08. Dave Reichert’s at 50%. Suzan DelBene is way back at 19, although that should still be enough to easily get her into November. (There’s another Dem, Tom Cramer, polling at 11, and a few other stray Dems in single digits. The Seattle Times’ new pet rock, Tim Dillon, is at 5.)

11:36pm: 22% are reporting in CA-SD15, and things are actually getting better for Laird. He’s up 49-43 over Blakeslee. However, the new votes are from Monterey Co., his home turf, so, again, don’t start getting optimistic yet.

11:35pm: Wow, I pretty much forgot about Wyoming, and with 71% reporting, we’re in pretty much a 3-way tie among the GOPers. Micheli, Mead, and Meyer are all at 28%. Micheli leads Mead by only 22 votes, and Mead’s ahead of Meyer by another 550. For the Dems, not much change: 48 Petersen, 39 Gosar.

11:32pm: In WA-03, we’re up to 49% reporting. It’s Heck 33, Herrera 27, Hedrick 14, Castillo 11, Crist 11.  

11:30pm: Now there’s 25% reporting statewide, says the AP. (Typical Washington deluge.) It’s Murray 42, Rossi 37, Didier 13. But bear in mind that absolutely none (of 1788) of King County’s precincts have reported, so that should pad things out for Murray once they get going (late, as they usually do).

11:25pm: Definitely getting some disparities here between the WA SoS, and the AP. The AP says the Senate race is Murray 41, Rossi 36, Didier 14, with 15% reporting. In WA-03, they have 37% reporting: Heck is at 32, Herrera at 30, Hedrick at 16, Castillo at 10, and Crist at 9.

11:22pm: OK, here’s some unexpected good news, though: John Laird is leading Sam Blakeslee in the CA-SD15 special election, with 10% of the vote in. It’s 47-45. However, that’s in Santa Clara Co. only, so Laird’s stronger areas (like San Luis Obispo) haven’t reported. But recall that Laird lost Santa Clara last time.

11:20pm: In the only other federal race worth watching in Washington, in WA-03, Jaime Herrera actually has a small lead over Denny Heck, 27-25, with the assorted teabaggers fairly far behind (Castillo at 17, Hedrick at 13). Cheryl Crist, who primaried Brian Baird from the left in 2008, is actually racking up a fair share too, at 12.

11:18pm: Wow, a lot of Washington votes landed with a thud. (Over 222,000 of them, according to the SoS.) Patty Murray’s at 44, Dino Rossi is at 37. Didier’s at 11, Akers is at 2. Goodspaceguy is at 0.4%.

RESULTS:

     California: Associated Press

     Washington: Associated Press | WA SoS | Politico

     Wyoming: Associated Press | Politico

156 thoughts on “Washington & Wyoming Primary Results Thread”

  3.  Is leading by 2 points in Santa Clara County. He lost Santa Clara county by 2 points in June. I do not think that margin is enough to win though unless he manages to improve strongly in Monterey and Santa Cruz counties. Since he directed most of the organization there, I think he has a good shot at doing much better than expected in areas formerly in his district.  

  6.  Has some votes in Wasington reporting. Although Murray has 41% of the vote now, she should get about 46% if current trends stick with what I talk about in my baseline diary. Murray has 47% in Kitsap so if trends stay the way they are, she should get 48% of the vote. I am lowering that though to 46% because she is underperforming in Eastern Washington.  

  8. I was surprised to see Franklin County colored for Murray on the WA SoS site- she’s winning 26-22 percent there over Rossi- because Didier got over 47(!) percent there.

  9. Heck not doing worth a …

    He leads but with only 32% of the vote against a split Republican field.

  10. If I remember right, late votes in WA state elections — those that arrive after election day — typically break for the D.

  11.  San Luis Obisbo City may go for Laird but the county is a strong area for Sam Blakeslee. Were you referring to the city or just the county?

  15.  Murray is able to tie them or be about 1-3% behind them in the Western counties like Skagit where she seems to be tying them. Although she is underperforming them in the eastern part of the state, she is actually beating them in Asotin County in the far southeastern part of the state. It might depend on where the votes are coming from though.

    One problem though is that Murray is underperforming them in southwestern Washington. She has 41% in Clark County but the baselines say 44%. She is getting 44% in Cowlitz County when she should get 49%.

    If you want to follow along with the baselines, here is the link:

    http://swingstateproject.com/d…

  16. Petersen leads Gosar 48-39 with 3/4 of the vote counted, but still no AP call. For the Reps it’s Mead, Micheli, Meyer (all M names!) 28.6-28.1-27.7.

  19.  Laird is underperforming in Monterey County. After all the effort he put in there, he is leading by 12 points with 40% in(which I think is lower than his vote percentage last time.) Fortunately, the more Democratic areas reported later on June 22nd so that could be the case now.  

  23. one santa cruz precinct in, Laird leads 56-38. but 9 Santa Barbara precincts reported and Blakeslee leads 62-28!!!! geez. not good.

    and in WA, AP calls it for Murray and Rossi.

  24.  Blakeslee is leading by 24 points in San Luis Obisbo County, an improvment from the 29 point lead in June. Although Laird is making it closer, I do not think it is enough. I am seeing a Blakeslee win by 3 points. Santa Cruz County has not reported yet though.  

  26.  Murray should get 48% of the vote once all the votes are counted. She seems to be underperforming the baselines by 2 points on average.  

  28. Where Larsen leads his (Palin endorsed) Republican opponent by only 3. The margin should widen, as Snohomish County is where most votes are from now, and Koster is a councilman there.  

  29. loves to find common themes. “Anti-incumbent year,” “Year of the Woman,” “anti-Democratic year…” yada yada yada.

    I think, though, this solidifies one theme: the year of anti-nepotism. Simpson lost here pretty badly in WY-Gov. There have been a bunch of kids of former pols who lost this year; for some reason, I just can’t recall any. Goes to show that ya can’t always ride daddy’s coattails.  

  31. I know no one probably cares, but Republican Art Coday is at 38% (3 points behind leading Dem) in a heavily Democratic district. He has ran for the Senate this year, but dropped out and endorsed Rossi after he entered.  

  32. As we have discussed to the top 2 Primary system I have heard how it shuts out Independents and Minor parties, FWIW in WA-07 Independent Bob Jeffers-Shroder looks like he will be the lucky one to get crushed Jim McDermott in the fall.

  33. It’s only three minutes till midnight and your still making me pull my hair out James. Enough. What do you really think that every single person that didn’t vote for Herrera will vote for him. Come on, Heck will get a few of those votes. Good lord. Can’t wait until tommorrow!!

  35. He is the brother of rogue dentist and AZ-01 GOP Candidate Pete Gosar. Also, Mead is the grandson of a former US Senator, Cliff Hansen. All from Aaron Blake’s (@FixAaron) twitter

  36. is not posting the Laird numbers that we would need to see at this point.  He wont the county with over 60% in the primary special election.

    Additionally, for those numbers crunchers out there, keep in mind that a much larger portion of the votes will be coming from mail-in ballots in special elections, explaining the large numbers that have reported from SLO County so far….

  40.  Here are my last thoughts on the races:

    Murray should get 47% in Washington State instead of the 48% I thought about earlier (unless most of eastern King County has reported and Seattle is taking awhile.)

    In CA SD 15, Laird should close the gap a bit as Monterey and Santa Cruz continue to report. I do not think it will be enough though and I am going to stick with my prediction before the election.

    Blakeslee 47%

    Laird 44%

    Other 9%

    See ya

  41. the third-to-last Sarah Palin Fail™ of primary season? Murkowski (AK) and Ehrlich (MD) are probably going to win so those are likely fails. But has she endorsed any other candidates in states that haven’t voted yet?

  42. Their Primary Poll of Washington was almost dead on.

    PPP (Murray, Rossi, Didier)

    47-33-10

    Actual so far

    46-34-12

  45. If a candidate for judicial office gets 50% +1 of the vote in a primary they are elected.

    Johnson 1st won election because voters really don’t know anything about the candidates for State Supreme Court except their names so his name won not him.  I know that when I voted today I went to the Washington State Democratic Party site to see who they had endorsed.

  46. coming in in CA SD 15. still a few hundred votes in favor of Laird, an improvement from last time but not a big one.

    hope blakeslee gets screwed over by redistricting.

  47. 1. CA SD-15 Repeat of June. Laird is simply too liberal for this district, which is NOT a Bay Area district, where he would do well. Democrats would be better served with somewhat more moderate candidate from southern part of the district

    2. Wyoming Gov-R: If Mead’s narrow victory holds – not bad. really. Meyer was a candidate of Republican “far right”, while Mead, Micheli and, probably, Simpson ran as a “pragmatic conservatives” – more so on fiscal issues then social (of course, all are “personally pro-life”, but you seldom get more then that in conservative Wyoming). Gov-D: Petersen, but who cares? She would lose even to Meyer, even more so – to Mead. No Dave Freudenthal here.

    3 Washington. Incomplete data, but no big real surprises so far. But enthusiasm gap persist – in a number of legislative (and some Congressional) districts, occupied by Democrats, Republican candidates (together) outpolled Democratic. Something Democrats must pay attention to in November, otherwise – unpleasant surprises are possible….

  48. AK Sen (R)

    AZ Sen (D) (R)

    AZ 01 (R)

    AZ 03 (R)

    AZ 05 (R)

    AZ 08 (R)

    FL Sen (D)

    FL Gov (R)

    FL 02 (D)

    FL 05 (R)

    FL 08 (R)

    FL 17 (D)

    FL 24 (R)

    VT Gov (D)

    Think that’s all of them?

    Hopefully a better night than last night. There was nothing to like besides Murray’s solid performance.

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