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IL-Sen: PPP's Switch to LV Model Still Yields a Slim Giannoulias Lead

by: James L.

Tue Aug 17, 2010 at 6:50 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (8/14-15, likely voters, 6/12-13 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 37 (31)
Mark Kirk (R): 35 (30)
LeAlan Jones (G): 9 (14)
Undecided: 19 (24)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

As you know, PPP has made the Great Schlep to a likely voter model from their earlier voter model, which was lightly-screened and tastefully seasoned with a patented formula of herbs and spices. (God, I'm hungry.) In terms of sample composition, the results have, predictably, been pretty ugly for Democrats. In this poll, for instance, the likely voter universe favored Obama over McCain by only 9% in the 2008 election -- a big jump from the 19% Obama margin that PPP found in their poll from June, and from the actual election day margin of 26%.

However, unlike their Pennsylvania Senate poll, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is still holding onto a very slim lead. Some more color, from Tom:

Kirk does have a big lead with independents, 36-20. But you can't win as a Republican in Illinois without winning over a fair number of Democratic voters and Kirk just isn't doing that right now. He's getting only 5%. Kirk's getting 74% of the Republican vote while Giannoulias is getting 72% of the Democratic vote and it's going to be very hard for Kirk to win unless the party unity gap ends up being bigger than that.

Both candidates continue to be very unpopular. Giannoulias' favorability is 26/42 and Kirk's is 26/34. Independents have a negative opinion of both of them, and each of them is viewed more unfavorably by voters of the opposite party than they are favorably by their own party base. Only 51% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Giannoulias and just 49% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kirk so neither contender is doing much to fire up even their partisans.

Battle of the weak, indeed.
James L. :: IL-Sen: PPP's Switch to LV Model Still Yields a Slim Giannoulias Lead
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IL-Sen: PPP's Switch to LV Model Still Yields a Slim Giannoulias Lead | 50 comments
Wow, not even PPP Rasmussen like voter model
Csn save Kirk, hell Alexi has went up a point from the last poll. But yes battle of the weak indeed.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
yay, another one :) for the cd thing
but yeah, i think alexi should eke this out, but frankly i think either one would be crushed by a competent candidate (madigan, biggert)

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Count me in too :)
But yeah im confident Alexi will pull-through. Irony is that the most pro-LGBT rights candidate in the country has some baggage, but that's nothing compared to Kirk's two-face lying strategy.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
i'm not sure he's most pro-LGBT rights in the country.
others are equally pro-LGBT, so i'd say he's tied, which is mildly risky in IL, which isn't as liberal as CA,NY, etc. although social issues are not anywhere near the front of this campaign. also ca-42, interesting haha i had to look up who the rep for that was. i know the reps of all the districts in every non-CA,NY,TX state, but those threee are too tough

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
I am better
 With the reps of CA and NY. TX gets me though and although I do well with the small states, it is harder for me with the new reps in Ohio, Michigan, Tenessee and the rest of that area.

Also, Illinois seems to be a moderate state too because of all the socially moderate suburban voters and the economically moderate/liberal rural voters near the Mississippi. The Democrats of course can count on Jewish voters, African Americans and Hispanics in Chicago. As we saw in the Prop 8 exit polls, minorities are not as socially liberal as we think.

Also, since all the Californians are posting their ages as their comment signature, I will follow along pretty soon.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Gary Miller ewww.
Sorry californianwonder. Cross your fingers for redistricting.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Oh trust me
This guy is a douche, but to be more specific a corrupt douche. Any SSP'ers want to redistrict California for me? Preferably gerrymander the crap out of Orange County? Please? :)

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
Shame that
he won even with a well-funded opponent. I have gerrymandered the crap out of Orange County many times, but sadly I doubt the redistricting powers that be will call upon my counsel. Are congressional districts done by an independent commission like state legislative districts? Or do we have yet another reason to defeat eMeg?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I don't know who does it
But the last go around CA's mape were drawn to protect the incumbent (same with NJ's districts).

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I believe NJ is redistricted
by bipartisan commission. The commission that does California's state assembly/senate districts (and maybe Congress?) is supposed to be independent I think. At any rate redistricting by commission only started this decade in California; it wasn't in effect for 2000.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I agree
Alexi with his Bank is making this close for the GOP and Kirk and his military gaffes are keping him from running away from them. If we had Lisa Madigan againist Kirk, we be up by more than two. It goes down to the candidates in this election.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
certainly
madigan was the A-list candidate, although hoffman (was that his name) was good as well.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
And he waan't a "Some Dude" candidate. He was Inpector General of Chicago, had some money, was on TV and got the endorsement of the Tribune. Alot of people this is IL didn't have a early primary Alexi wouldn't of won. I can't say that's true but I like do see what would unfolded.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
It also woud have gotten Hoffman
In the Governors race, even if Alexi won, which means instead of the negative Quinn coattails he would be benifitting from a blowout gov race.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
How would it gotten him in the Governnor's race
Hoffman was running for IL-Sen, not IL-Gov.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
IL Dems screwed up
Hynes for Governor and Hoffman for Senator would have been VASTLY better.

Though of course the bigger blunder was Lisa Madigan opting out of BOTH the governor's race AND the Senate race. She wants to be governor but was afraid to challenge Quinn at the height of his honeymoon. Stupid, stupid stupid. She would have crushed him in the primary, would be on track to hold the governorship easily, and it would have freed Hynes to run for the Senate while Giannoulias ran for AG. Hynes as a Senate candidate would have been fine -- generic Dem, but without the kind of baggage Giannoulias has.  

[ Parent ]
Hey hey, blame the voters
There the ones who wanted Quinn and Alexi as their nominees in their respective races. Yes there were better candidates, that's a no brainer but I blame IL's early primary that did this because if these guys had a couple more months of defining and campaigning I think the outcomes would be diffrent.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I supported Alexi
he was the far more progressive candidate. Hoffman was kind of conservative, and I simply didn't like him, he wasn't a likeable guy, even if he was slightly more electable. Gianoulias is calling for the creation of a Senate, Progressive Caucus and, being young, looks like he could become a figure in the senate for decades to come if he wins.  
[ Parent ]
Honeymoon? Heh
Quinn (rightfully) had it rough right from the start. And everyone knew Madigan could take the nomination away from him just by entering the race. I doubt she was afraid of HIM, but rather afraid of the absolute SHIT the next governor will have to put up with. It's gonna be a bloodbath, and it'll be far more fun to come in after those four years like you've got all the answers. She's young enough to wait the budget storm out.
[ Parent ]
Kirk is as "competent" as an Illinois Republican gets......
The Illinois GOP bench is sooooo thin that there's really no one else out there who could do any better.  The biggest problem is that Illinois Repubicans are actually quite conservative, NOT moderate, and that's a killer statewide in such a blue state.  Someone like Peter Roskam would have a credible shot despite his conservatism, but once the DSCC and Alexi hammered him on how conservative he is, likely game over, same as with most IL GOPers.  The IL GOP just no longer tolerates moderates like Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar, and George Ryan......yes, I know there are crooks in the mix among moderate IL GOPers, but I'm talking about their ideology and pragmatism, not anything else.  I think the failed campaign of Judy Baar Topinka against Blago in 2006 might have been a nail in the coffin of moderate IL GOPers for a long time.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
And conservative Bill Brady as their nom in IL-Gov
Dosen't help much either, except downstate but not in Chicagoland.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
The inexplicable thing is that Kirk has been running to the right this whole campaign
He flipped on ACES, came out against DADT repeal, and has been voting lockstep with the Republicans in the House this year.
[ Parent ]
Also correct me if i'm wrong
But Kirk has had a pro-choice voting record throughout his House career. Did one of the abortion groups take away their endorsemrent of him because he's flip-floping on the issue?

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
he once was probably the most pro-choice Republican in the House, but he voted for the Stupak Amendment, which is one of the most anti-choice votes one could possibly do. NARAL no longer regards him as pro-choice.

http://newsblogs.chicagotribun...

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
I really don't get it either
He's built up a moderate reputation all these years, and now he moves to the right on a whole host of issues? Doesn't make any sense. For someone who could survive in his district for all these years, I thought he pretty good political instincts.

In addition to the two votes you cited, he also voted for Stupak, tarnishing his once-stellar pro-choice reputation. Just dumb...

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
I think
Roskam would have done better than you give him credit for. His district, while politically conservative, still voted for Obama by a substantial margin. I think he would clean up in the suburbs against Giannoulias and, obviously, take conservative southern votes. Roskam doesn't have the stench of lying like Kirk, and I think he could run on budget balancing, fiscal responsibility blah blah blah. He would have a shot.

What about Judy Biggert? She has a moderate profile and is from the 'burbs as well.

I think running a moderate from the 'burns is the only way a GOPer could win in IL. They have access to Chicago money--like Kirk does--and can vote a little to the "center" when they're in Congress without being teabagged like they would if they were from Shimkus' district. Me thinks Biggert would have been a pretty darn good choice.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
Biggert is pretty old, doubt she'd run for senate
don't think Roskam has what it takes either. His conservatism is just ehh. And he represents one of the most conservative areas in the Chicago suburbs (not including exurb-ish areas) yet barely held the seat in 2006.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Correct re Roskam, and remember that's Henry Hyde's district, so it's misleading...
...to construe anything from Obama's overperformance there.  You gotta take Obama's performance in Illinois districts with a grain of salt since there was a LOT of homerism in voting, in addition to the anti-Republican environment.  Indeed, Obama can be argued to have underperformed in Illinois when you consider he did no better there than in a bunch of blue states where he supposedly could have had "problems" with blue-collar whites, like Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Roskam does NOT know what it is to campaign before a blue electorate.  He could have made it competitive, but he would have been out of his element and would have had to grow as a candidate a lot more than Kirk, whose district comes reasonably close to the state as a whole in voting behavior.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Topinka's actually running for Comptroller this year


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Thanks, I had forgotten about that......
Yeah, she's on the comeback trail!  Won't surprise me if she wins, even if it was only a neutral environment.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Joining the bandwagon too
But damn, hard to do an equivalent sig line if you're not American and can vote in two countries :-)

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU
[ Parent ]
Hopefully
People voting Green will see sense in the end and not waste their vote.
Well it's showing in this poll
The Green went from 14 pts to 9. So it's showing slowly.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I don't have a problem with the Green candidate if the crosstabs prove true......
PPP has polled the Green candidate at least twice in a row now, and both times the guy draws across the partisan and ideological spectrum.  Yes I'm the first to always remind that crosstabs are unreliable, but when you see the same thing repeatedly and consistently, that lends a little more credibility.  And no "two" is not a valid sample to take the crosstabs seriously, but it's enough to make me go "hmmmmmm......just maybe."  The fact that the major party candidates are so disliked, and that voters have a recent precedent for voting for a 3rd wheel, and indeed for a Green, in 2006 IL-Gov, makes me think the Green might indeed outperform slightly even with no money and no visibility.  But I don't see him reaching 10%.

The real question to me regarding the Green is how conservative voters react to Kirk on election day.  Is he just too moderate for today's IL GOP for them to even hold their noses for him?  Or do they want a "win" badly enough to hold their noses?  I think in a year like this one they're likely to show up.  So that's the one thing about this race that worries me.

But all that said, there's no denying that Alexi holding steady in a dead heat and even a narrow lead with a brutal, Rasmussen-ish likely voter model makes it highly unlikely we'll lose this one.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Cannot this state do better than a race to the bottom?
Cannot such a great state come up with two better souls to run for Senate?  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
In IL, no
This is the same state that elected Blago and George Ryan to Springfield. Remember that.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Big State, Small State
I've also wondered why a big state like California delivers two senators that I consider fairly unimpressive while tiny states like RI and VT have senators that I think are terrific. Wouldn't states with bigger populations provide a bigger pool of good people to choose from?

Then someone pointed out that to run in a big state, you need a lot of money--a whole lot of money. That's a huge barrier for a lot of qualified people. So the pool of really good candidates may be better in small states where retail politics is still possible.

[ Parent ]
Boxer unimpressive?
Yeah that's a joke.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Ditto


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
IL-Gov: GOP up by 9
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

This is not pretty.  How often do you see a third party candidate polling in second place among independents?  Quinn's approval rating is well below the Corzine line of political death too.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

This is why I think Giannaoulias loses
Bill Brady will drag the bloodied, beaten Mark Kirk across the finish line.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Polling disagrees
Even after everything has happened Alexi is still winning by two points and there's too many undecided to decided that Brady can drag Kirk across the finidsh line, espically since Kirk has tact to the right and Brady has already been there. Both will lose because of that.  

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Peter Fitzgerald
Remember this state did elect Peter Fitzgerald, who is to the right of Kirk and probably as conservative as Brady.  Brady and Kirk could easily win ideologically if Fitzgerald won.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
There's a difference though
Fitzgerald though conservative was well liked and was a maverick in the Senate and beat a incumbent everyone hated. That dosen't mean by any aspect that Kirk and Brady will win because of it.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Not "everyone" hated Carol Moseley-Braun
Her favorables in '98 were about on-par with Pat Quinn's today. Eventually, Democrats came home to her, but it wasn't enough to trump Fitzgerald's massive advantage among Independents.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
No by election time from what read (remember I was 11 whrn this election took place)
Mosley Braun was damaged good and Fitzgerald found enough support to drive him home. Good news is he only  lasted one term and wasn't that bad as a Senator, maverick and very low key. Plus Quinn has room to grow with all the undecided.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
IL is
probably bluer now than 12 years ago.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Still
Down by 9 with 20 percent undecided isn't too bad. Rich Whitney support will go down as the election gets near and even Dean Debham commented in the polling that Quinn can still win this is he gets his support from his party more locked up and has room to grow. I'm not worried about this race. I still think Quinn can eak it out because of what the polling memo said and that there are a shitload of undecideds left and Bill Brady is too conservative for statewide.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Dedham's Quote
"But he still has more room to improve than
does Brady, who already has his party and independents locked up. As with Alexi
Giannoulias in the Senate race, if Quinn can get his base off the fence to support him and
then turn them out, he can eke out a victory in this blue state."

Basically, Dedham is saying that Brady has no where else to go, and that he's seeing all the support he's going to get, whereas Quinn could still pick-up support from Democrats, which could push him over the finish line.

By the way, if there any state in the union that has this ugly of a combination of GOV and SEN race? I'm suprised the Illinois Green Party isn't cleaning house right now.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
And Debham is spot on with the quote
As there alot of undecided out there and Quinn once the gears get shifted can pick them up. As for the Greens in IL. When Whitney ran agsinist Blago and Topinka in '06 he did get 10 percent of the vote.  

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
IL-Sen: PPP's Switch to LV Model Still Yields a Slim Giannoulias Lead | 50 comments

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