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NV-Sen, NV-Gov, NV-03: We're Just Mild About Harry

by: Crisitunity

Mon Aug 16, 2010 at 1:50 PM EDT


Mason-Dixon (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/26-28 in parens)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 46 (43)
Sharron Angle (R): 44 (42)
Other: 2 (2)
None of these: 3 (7)
Undecided: 5 (6)
(MoE: ±4%)

OK, I can't claim credit for the title (I stole it from mysterious but apparently hilarious pollster We Ask America, whom I just found out put out a poll of this race last week too: Reid led Angle 46-41). At any rate, in the most recent Mason-Dixon poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, it's a duel to see which candidate can be less unappealing to Nevadans. Harry Reid's favorables are 40/51, while Angle's are 37/45.

Also troublesome for Reid: the poll's finding that, by a 51 to 45 margin, Nevadans don't think that his seniority is too valuable to give up. Good for Reid, though: 41% say Angle's positions are too extreme for them (compare with 36% for Reid). Also good: Reid keeps inching closer and closer to the 50% mark as undecideds and NOTAs get off the fence; this is the closest he's come in a M-D poll, even the one where he was up by 7.

One more thing Angle is also going to have to explain away: she outed herself last Thursday as a big fan of SSP. No, not this SSP: social security privatization. But no, it's OK, she said, as Chile's already done it (the last remaining vestige of the Pinochet regime). By Friday, her helpers were already trying to unspin what she's spun, saying the federal government should manage a system where workers pick their own retirement plans.

Gubernatorial numbers (7/26-28 in parens)

Rory Reid (D): 36 (31)
Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (50)
Other: 1 (2)
None of these: 2 (3)
Undecided: 9 (14)
(MoE: ±4%)

Things aren't looking up for Reid the Younger, at least not so much. Reid has gained some significant ground since the previous Mason-Dixon poll, as undecideds make their move, but Sandoval is already past the 50% mark. Reid, at 29/41 favorables (Reid's new campaign slogan: "My Dad went to the Senate and all I got was these lousy favorable ratings") will be hard-pressed to turn that around against Sandoval's 48/18.

NV-03 numbers (7/12-14 in parens):

Dina Titus (D-inc): 43 (42)
Joe Heck (R): 42 (40)
Other: 3 (5)
None of these: 4 (4)
Undecided: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±5%)

Dina Titus's 2-point lead from last month is down to a 1-point lead, all float within the margin of error. I have a feeling the race in NV-03 is going to stay this close consistently for the next few months, all the way through Election Day. While it's good to see Titus holding her own, she's at 42/44 favorables while Heck has lots of room to grow 35/16, so she needs to start defining him ASAP.

Crisitunity :: NV-Sen, NV-Gov, NV-03: We're Just Mild About Harry
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One piece of futher good news...
Don't polls in Nevada consistently underpoll Democratic support due to the large (and somewhat unreachable) Latino population?  

In 2004 and 2008 that was true


[ Parent ]
Out-of-state cell phones
With all the growth in Nevada over the last decade, many of the people moving here are keeping their old cell numbers. I manage about 100 employees and roughly 1/4 of them have out-of-state cell numbers. This is a mostly younger crowd, too. With non-polling of cell phones and then I doubt that any pollster who does poll cell phones would pick up out-of-state numbers, this could drive numbers down. This could be a reason for underpolling Democratic support. Just a personal observation.

[ Parent ]
Before my time
How well was Gore expected to do prior to election day in Nevada?

[ Parent ]
It's not impossible for pollsters
To figure it out, though I'm not quite sure how they do....but I've been polled at least three times while living in California (on California races where I'm registered), despite my area code indicating that I would be in Kansas.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Another thing polls almost always do
that change by November are AA results.  People here have commented on some polls being screwy with AA numbers and faulting these for not showing the usual 90/10 spread.

I cant remember a single poll whose internals i looked at where the AA numbers were what I'd expect for election day, not until like mid-October or so.  I dont look at many internals, only the ones posted here or SUSA because when I click links to polls of theirs, you end up at the whole sha-bang.  MOE explains some of that, but it's been a pretty consistent trend I've seen in the few internals I've gone through.

Im sure Reid could be winning Hispanics by a similar spread to AA's by election day.  Just got to ask her one question about immigration, stand back and let her do her thing.


[ Parent ]
These aren;'t actually too bad
At least they are believable.  The undecideds seem reasonable, the "none of the above" seem reasonable.

Slight Dem leads in the 2 competitive races (sorry Rory).  And I'd think they might be slightly larger.

Dems just can't get complacent and expect Angle (and Paul in KY) to hang themselves.  Even some of their crazy appeals to a large part of their respective electorates.  And their crazy may not seem so crazy within their own states.

Vigilence is needed in both these races


A different take...
I'm not sure the 51-45 split on "is his seniority too valuable to give up" is that bad of news.

Let me put it this way: if you think it IS too valuable to give up, then logically, you're going to vote for him. But even if you think it ISN'T too valuable to give up, you might not vote for Angle. You might not think much of clout in Washington, but still think Angle is too extreme. Indeed, I imagine most Americans DON'T think too much of clout in Washington, but entrenched incumbents keep winning re-election. So, I think 45% is Reid's floor of support- and in a race that probably only needs 48% to win (with NOTA being an option), that's not that bad.

Of course, I understand that voters don't always logically think out their answers to poll responses, but I think the topline numbers here back me up- Reid's getting 46%, and Angle's getting no where near that 51%. So clearly, some of that 51% that isn't impressed by Reid's clout can be convinced to vote for him for some other reason.


NV isnt like AK or HI
I think it's a bit of a throw-away question as well.

[ Parent ]
Thank you, and I'm disappointed the diarist pimped that foolish narrative from Mason-Dixon......
The LVRJ writeup of this poll quoted Mason-Dixon's Brad Coker as pimping that number as somehow ominous for Reid.

Bullshit.

The numbers that matter are the toplines, which show Reid climbing.  The M-D trendline for the year is very telling, if you graphed it you'd see a linear climb for Reid.  He's clearly winning, and that muliple polls now consistently show him in the 45-48 range, when he was in the 38-44 range before, is what's relevant here.

Meanwhile, Reid's ads attacking Angle are just stellar.  Every ad is perfect, and his campaign should be mandatory study for all Democratic Senate candidates.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
The last question in the poll
Did anyone else find the last question a bit odd.  It asks voters identified as white if they are evangelical/born again.  23% said yes and 77% said no.

Then right below this question, there is an asterisk that states that "*White evangelical Christians account for 18% of all state voters."

I'm curious how that compares to prior elections.


Not a bad position for Titus
Particularly given that M-D has always had a bit of a GOP lean, and the hidden turnout noted above.

Wasnt there some chart
of the tough votes and how our vulnerable incumbents voted?  I really like Titus and want to see her stick around so Im curious about how she voted.  Gotta love a poli sci prof making it Washington instead of another lawyer!  ;)

Based on that, she's one worth keeping.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Good news for both
If Reid holds on, I think Titus holds on to. If she pulls it off this year, Dina Titus will be able to breathe easier, because in 2012 she'll have a smaller and safer district.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

I don't think that's true at all, Angle's drag is offset by Sandoval's lift......
Harry Reid is unpopular, he has no coattails to help downballot Democrats.  He will win because Sharron Angle is horrific.  And Sandoval's strength will offset any drag by Angle on the GOP side.  Titus really has to try to win on her own campaign skills combined with the state party's and OFA's field effort.  It's doable for her, but she's no better than 50-50 odds to survive.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I wasn't talking about coattails
Anyone can tell Reid won't have coattails, my point is I don't see Titus losing if Reid wins, since the NV-3 district vote totals have pretty much mirrored the statewide ones for federal races. Sandoval will probably win NV-3, but that's different than the federal races.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
I suspect so too
She has the highest population district in the country iirc, around 950K population.  Not cheap or easy to compete in.

I'm not persuaded it's a Republican-leaning district anymore (8% or more third party/NOTA voting is normal) or that Joe Heck is as good or popular of a candidate as widely imagined.

The poll is right- it's a tipping district and the Election Night result will probably be a close one.  It's basically a matter of turnout.  That was done very well in the district in '08 (coordinated with and largely paid for by the Obama campaign, of course).

I have a very favorable impression of Dina and it would be pretty depressing to see someone as valuable as her lose.  I hope to see her eventually either take Reid's seat or Ensign's in the Senate.


[ Parent ]
I never think Joe Heck will win

After he loses his old state senate seat in 2008 running as incumbent I see not him winning a US house seat in a D+ district. I think he will lose.


The last time Reid was on the ballot in non-Presidential year,
he won by just over 300 votes (48%).  The year was 1998 and his opponent was John Ensign.  1998 was a very good year for Democrats because opposition to Republican plans to impeach President Clinton.  Although Angle is no Ensign (i. e. the pre-scandal Ensign), this race is going to be extremely close.

New Ad From Harry Reid


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Wow, now that's a
devastating push back against Angle's recent attempts to moderate ever so slightly.  

[ Parent ]
Here's a head-scratcher.
Sharron Angle released a web ad attacking Rory Reid. http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo... Is she forgetting that's running for Senate, not for governor?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


maybe he wants to
put fluoride in the waters of vegas?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
talk about muddled NV politics
From that interesting link:
One of Sandoval's chief advisors, Greg Ferraro, is on the Republicans for (Harry) Reid list. Another adviser, Pete Ernaut, is business partners with Harry Reid's long-time adviser Billy Vassiliadis.
So the same guy is helping to defeat Rory, but to help Harry... Must be the pork factor.

[ Parent ]
Sig Rogich, a prominent NV GOP strategist is doing this "Republicans for Reid" thing.
On this list is the Mayor of Reno, the Mayor of Sparks, the State Senate Minority Leader, Wayne Newton, and a number of prominent businessmen.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
New ad from Dina Titus. A positive ad.
In this one, constituents talk about how she's helped them prevent banks from foreclosing on them.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I was wondering why the US Chamber of Commerce is staying neutral in NV-Sen.
I think I figured it out.  Although the CoC hate Reid for HCR and Wall Street Reform, they know that if Angle is elected, there will be no more pork for Nevada.  Therefore, they've compromised by staying out.

I think it would be wise for the NRA to endorse Reid.  He has a B- lifetime score, but if he loses, Schumer or Durbin will become Majority Leader, and they're big supporters of gun control.  For now, they're neutral.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!



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