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SSP Daily Digest: 8/16 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Aug 16, 2010 at 8:04 AM EDT


  • FL-Sen: As any attentive swingnut will now tell you, when you hear "Jeff Greene" and "Cuba" in the same sentence, you're gonna think of the booze cruise he took their on his vomit-caked yacht a few years back. Well, Greene is (desperately?) trying to change the subject, saying that he now is open to lifting the Cuban embargo. Less than two weeks ago, though, he declared his firm support for it. Perhaps running to the right on Cuba is no longer the automatic option in Democratic primaries in Florida?
  • LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon has a new ad up just lacerating David Vitter for his record on women's issues. I highly suggest you check it out - I think it's very well done. NWOTSOTB, but Josh Kraushaar says the ad "is airing on broadcast and cable television throughout the state."
  • MA-Sen: In a long profile with the Boston Globe, Vicki Kennedy (Ted's widow) says she won't challenge Scott Brown in 2012.
  • MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan is up with her first ad of the cycle, a negative spot hitting Roy Blunt for his support of the bailout. NWOTSOTB, but the ad (which you can view here) "is running statewide."
  • SC-Sen: Looks like we're stuck with the recently-indicted Alvin Greene as our candidate. In fact, say local election officials, "even if he were to be convicted before the election, the law appears to read that he could still serve and be on the ballot." Memo to all state Democratic parties everywhere: Fix your bylaws!
  • FL-Gov: Dem Alex Sink is up with her first ad, ribbing her Republican rivals for their negative campaigning against each other. The Orlando Sentinel says that Sink "has bought $950,000 in TV from now through the Aug. 24 primary," but I'm not sure if all of that is devoted to this one ad.

  • GA-Gov: It's a continuing theme this digest: Roy Barnes is also up with his first ad of the general election, hitting Nathan Deal for his ethical issues. (Recall that Deal resigned from Congress earlier this year to avoid an Ethics Committee investigation.) NWOTSOTB.
  • TN-Gov: One more: Republican Bill Haslam is on the air with his first ad of the general election campaign, a super-cheesy one-minute spot in which (among other things) he name-checks his opponent's dad, former Gov. Ned McWherter. NWOTSOTB.
  • WI-Gov: Obama alert! The POTUS will stop in Milwaukee on Monday to do a fundraiser for Dem gubernatorial candidate Tom Barrett. Nice to see that a guy like Barrett, running in a swing state which probably doesn't feel too warmly toward Obama these days, isn't afraid to appear with the president.
  • AZ-03: Ben Quayle seems to be acting like one of those defendants whose attorneys are begging him to stop talking to the papers, but who just can't shut up. He put out a statement berating his opponents and the media for linking him to the sickeningly odious "Dirty Scottsdale" website (now thedirty.com - not linking them)... which of course can only have the effect of keeping this story alive even longer. Wonder where he gets these genius genes from....
  • AZ-08: Air Force vet Brian Miller, citing a lack of money, announced he was dropping out of the Republican primary and endorsing former state Sen. Jonathan Paton, rather than fellow veteran Jesse Kelly.
  • CA-52: Uh, wow. Just read the link.
  • CO-04: The conservative 501(c)4 group "Americans for Prosperity" is launching a $330K ad buy against Dem Rep. Betsy Markey. You can view the ad (which does not strike me as having the highest of production values) here.
  • IL-10: Both Dan Seals and his Republican opponent, Bob Dold!, are up on cable with their first ads of the general election. NWOTSOTB (either of them).
  • MA-10: Republican Jeff Perry's resume takes another hit - literally. Turns out he'd been touting a "degree" he earned from a school called Columbia State University... which was, in fact, a notorious diploma mill until it was shut down by the authorities. Cape Cod Today was first on the story, and now it's being picked up in other media outlets as well.
  • MI-01: Major bummer: State Sen. Jason Allen, who trails physician Dan Benishek by just fifteen votes following a re-canvass, won't seek a recount. Still, I think Dems probably got our preferred candidate here.
  • NY-19: Rep. John Hall is trying to knock his Republican opponent, Nan Hayworth, off the Independence Party line, saying that her petitions contain too many invalid signatures.
  • NY-24: GOPer Richard Hanna is up with his first ad of the election campaign, a positive bio spot. NWOTSOTB.
  • PA-06, PA-07: Howard Dean is coming to suburban Philly next month to do a joint fundraiser for two Dems, Manan Trivedi and Bryan Lentz.
  • SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has a new ad up ("running statewide," but NWOTSOTB) which features her two-year-old son pooping. Not kidding. Supposedly this is some kind of analogy to Congress (which likes to "eat, and eat, and eat") that I am truly not getting.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/16 (Morning Edition)
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    Not really seeing how Benishek is a better opponent than Allen
    McDowell vs. Allen could exploit the regional split of the district, but with Benishek being from the UP, he probably has a better chance at putting together a coalition to win.

    My nephew is a U.P. native and thinks the GOP is stronger with Benishek......
    My nephew, a Chicagoan now, was born-and-bred in Houghton, and while he's no campaign junkie like me, he knows the U.P. and believes that U.P.ers are very reluctant to vote for a non-U.P. resident.  So he thinks Benishek is the stronger Republican.

    I've visited my family in Houghton many times going back as far as the 70s, and between that and knowing my nephew, no doubt U.P. residents have a very real inferiority complex that bothers them.  Their part of Michigan is ignored and not known to even exist by most Americans, who think of what U.P.ers call the "lower peninsula" as the entire state.  It's an interesting accident of history that the U.P. is part of Michigan rather than Wisconsin, resulting from a 19th-century Michigan-Ohio border war that was decided in Ohio's favor.

    Another thing is that while Allen is more "moderate" and we presume ideologically tougher for us for that reason, the flip side is that he also would have made it harder for Republicans to draw a contrast with McDowell.  Benishek offers a much clearer contrast.  Of course, that cuts both ways, since now McDowell has an easier time establishing a contrast favorable to himself, but the problem is in an environment that clearly favors the opposing party, the contrast both candidates make might hurt us more than it helps us.  It really depends on whether Benishek proves to be a bad general election candidate and/or runs a bad campaign.

    I have no doubt McDowell has a real shot at winning, but this is a tough seat to hold.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Groan.
      Have you looked at Benishek's website?

     "Day 1

    What will Dan Benishek do on his first day in Congress? Dan wants to pull together every new member of Congress (and there's going to be a lot of them!), both Republican and Democrat, and ask them to all pledge one thing: that together they would work to change Washington, without Washington changing them. Would that be real change?"

     And I thought Kucinich's "text-messaging for peace" idea was Pollyanna.  

    24, Male, GA-05


    [ Parent ]
    Wow.
    So, it's the Judah Friedlander In That Dave Matthews Band Video theory of governance?

    [ Parent ]
    There's nothing there that hurts him at all......
    Benishek isn't going to lose any votes at all over a stupid obscure comment on his web site.  Most voters will never visit his web site.  Many who do won't notice or remember that particular bit of content.  And many who notice and remember it won't be the least bit offended by it, because as stupid as it is, it's not offensive or insulting or extreme in a way that loses votes.

    From what I've read Benishek is a right-wing nut, yes, and McDowell can use that against him, but not so easily in a conservative district that will give a longer leash to right-wingers than left-wingers even in a neutral year.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    It tells me...
       That he has strange ideas and that he will run a scattershot campaign.  This district isn't as conservative as people make it out to be.  Democrats hold dozens of districts more conservative than this one.

    24, Male, GA-05

    [ Parent ]
    It's a lot more conservative a district than Michigan as a whole......
    Obama won only 8 of 15 U.P. counties and almost all the district's L.P. counties in the strongest Democratic performance that state has seen in my lifetime.  Only in 2 counties did Obama exceed his state performance, and in one more he won by 10.  He otherwise underperformed his statewide performance by significant amounts everywhere else.  Kerry when he won the state narrowly won only 3 counties in the district.

    It's a conservative district in a Republican year.  Stuff like that stupid fluff by Benishek isn't going to hurt him one bit.  And it's dubious to assume that web content says anything at all about the likely quality of his general election campaign.  I bet most candidates out there have something stupid or meaningless on their web sites.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    His whole website is stupid.
       The "4 Rs" all over is his page is nonsense.  I do not think voters will like stupid bullshit.  I am not saying Benishek is a hopeless candidate, but just that McDowell is now a slight favorite.

      This is a labor-heavy, socially conservative district.  This is a Congressional campaign, so Obama's numbers are not the end-all-be-all of Democratic performance.

    24, Male, GA-05


    [ Parent ]
    Like MD-01
    Substitute "Eastern Shore" for "U.P'"

    [ Parent ]
    did anyone else think
    that herseth sandlin's ad looks similar to blanche lincoln's ad where people were throwing money around?  apparently for midwest dems, comparing congress to children seems (to them at least) like a good move.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    Congratulations future Rep. Kristi Noem...
    enjoy your tenure in Congress starting in 2011.

    Seriously, wtf?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    It almost looks like Herseth is throwing this election
    For someone with so much charisma and so much political experience, she has ran a horrible campaign.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Funny ad but not helpful
    but comparing Congress to a bunch of kids doesn't help you if you are in Congress, and in the view of those who have a low view of Congress, insults those kids.


    [ Parent ]
    I actually dont think the ad is so bad
    Herseth-Sandlin one big plus is that she is personally popular. While voters in SD might not like Pelosi, Obama, healthcare and the Dem Congress they do think Herseth is a nice attractive person.

    This ad is about her being a Mom. A nice mom. Not one of those nasty politicians in Washington who are "screwing up" this country.

    If Herseth wins re-election its because she is able to localize the race and make it about personality. This ad helps her show what a nice Mom she is and that she is different from those Washington insiders (even though the father of that cute child and her current husband is an ex-Congressman and current Washington lobbiest).

    I actually think the ad is kind of cute and will help her.  

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    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    I was expecting much worse from the comments before actually seeing it for myself.

    [ Parent ]
    It's ok
    The whole, they eat and eat and eat, and then you know what.  I dunno, I think that's dumb, but Im not some pissed off person about the government who may be like, well that's a clever and not inappropriate way of saying government is a crap shoot.

    [ Parent ]
    It's OK for an August ad
    If she were running it in October I'd say "WTF."

    [ Parent ]
    Tasteless Ad
    I think there's a rule about political ads.  NEVER be tasteless.  It doesn't matter how voters feel about politics; it may not even matter if voters would agree with your tasteless analogy.  Tastelessness is a major turnoff for voters.  I'm reminded of this ad by some Alaska state legislature candidate that showed her cleaning up dog poop as an analogy.  Too disgusting to support.

    [ Parent ]
    Diane Benson, our 2006 nominee for Congress
    yeah, that ad sucked too. but she did keep Don Young under 60% (probably due to the Democratic wave and Young's own weaknesses).

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Shocking
    Her first ad (http://www.youtube.com/user/stephanieforsd#p/u/1/DaTculV5uYE) was pretty good, and she's been around long enough to know what does and doesn't work. This one is on its way down there with a couple of the Nancy Johnson ads from '06.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    I am not writing her off because of one crappy (literally)  add but I will admit that did really suck. Seriously I hope that is not a big buy.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    LA-SEN
    Wow.  And I'd been pronouncing it "meh-lun-CONE" all these years.

    haha
    So did I, until the NYYYankees pitcher had the same name pronounced "Muh-LAN-sin".  So I thought it might be like that.  Strike Two for me!

    [ Parent ]
    Re CA-52
    http://static.tvtropes.org/pmw...

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    Literally?
    Republican Jeff Perry's resume takes another hit - literally.

    Literally? {frowns} Someone hit his resume? I hope it wasn't the Word file of it, because hitting computer screens is not a wise thing to do.

    Seriously - that's not how you use "literally". Perry's resume very much only got hit figuratively. Sorry, pet peeve.

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


    When I read this comment
    My head literally exploded!

    [ Parent ]
    Did it figuratively hit the computer screen?
    Because that's not a wise thing to do.

    [ Parent ]
    CA 52 -- Really?????
    I guess no one can question the guy's committment, but maybe can question whether he should be committed.  Hunger strikes and isolation booths, especially in this upscale, suburban district?  I'm sorry, but it makes him seem self-righteous and one taco short of the Number 3 Combo Platter.

    Not like he was going to win anyway
    in this R+5,000 district.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    True
    If you're going to bring the crazy, at least it's not in a realistically winnable district!

    [ Parent ]
    Correct
    I'm much more worried about Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin's weirdo ad than this, even though the hunger strike is probably weirder.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I know!
    The guys comes off as a bit of wack job if you ask me. I mean going on a hunger strike over a debate not being held? I mean that's a little extreme to say the least.

    If you are going to give up food as a political protest at least make it over something a little more serious than the number of debates you can have with Duncan Hunter!

    I mean outside of a few political junkies who gives a flying fig about debates for a Congressional campaign.

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    [ Parent ]
    I like it
    I mean I would never do it but it will undoubtedly give him a lot of attention and could boost his status from being some dude to being that some dude who went on a starvation diet. I respect the guy, he is running because he wants to talk about the issues that he cares about and perhaps this will let him get a chance to speak his views. He has no chance of winning but many people run for Congress knowing they will not win, but they just want to get their views heard.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Political consultants needs money for August vacations?
      That's a lot of ads.  Why are they beginning in the middle of August?  

     Ugh, I am pissed that I will not be able to attend Howard Dean's fundraiser for Lentz and Trivedi!

     Carnahan's and Melancon's ads were great.  Carnahan is such a great candidate it would be a shame for her to lose.

     I have never liked Dan Seals and was pissed when he narrowly won the primary over Hamos.  His ads are always boring and generic.  Seals will probably make what should be a slam-dunk, close.

    24, Male, GA-05


    You mean like
    Scott Brown's holiday ad spending? Seriously, in this 24/7 media era if a candidate has the cash I say spend it.

    [ Parent ]
    agreed, one ad you air 5 times
    Could equal out to a mention in every local media outlet of the ad attacking your opponent

    [ Parent ]
    When your party is in trouble, there's no such thing as too early......
    I'm very happy to see vulnerable incumbents run ads early.  We need early campaigning to save as many seats as possible.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Early money may be like yeast, and...
    ...good money may be like dynamite, and late money may be like a few additional fireworks at the end of the show, but no matter what simile you pick campaign funds are never a bad thing to have.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    FL-08: Does anyone know what's going on down there?
    Are we still stuck in "it's a jungle of a primary" (no pun intended) mode for the R side and Grayson stunning people with his unexpected moves on his side?  Have there been any polls apart from that Zogby poll for Todd Long?

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    No
    idea. Its probably going to be a very interesting race after the primary. Grayson is going to make it a err...very interesting race for lack of a better term.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    It's too bad about Grayson because...
    If he were less of a...I'll say "attention seeker"... he could have this district nailed down. There's plenty of other Dems in swing districts who are going to win

    Unlike a lot of people on this site, I'm not a huge Grayson fan, mostly because I think he's going to lose a seat for no good reason (he could vote the same way on everything while being less of a loudmouth and still win).

    All that said, you can't count out his money, or the potential weakness of his opponents.  


    [ Parent ]
    i think he will win
    if dan webster loses the primary; the other repubs are all batshit crazy

    [ Parent ]
    But some people would say the same thing about Grayson
    He's about the only Dem office holder I think you can make that claim about.  

    [ Parent ]
    Why?
    I'd say he's more of an attention seeker than crazy. He's just really combative, not crazy, in my opinion.

    Dude went to Harvard and received three degrees there. Grayson is definitely smart, and he likes netroots money and attention--which I have no problem with. I  think he has all of his fries in his happy meal.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


    [ Parent ]
    in fla democratic circles
    grayson is a 'rock star'(but i agree that your point is valid as far as grayson coming across as a little weird, but here, on the ground in fla, the activist base(of which i am a member)loves him for that especially since the fla democratic party is still incredibly weak even though obama carried fla)

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, sorry, I just don't like Grayson.
    I like his positions, and I'm sure I'd vote for him I lived in his district (especially if the Republicans are whack jobs). I just don't like him personally.

    I know other people on this site do, and this is a subjective judgment, so I won't say anymore.  


    [ Parent ]
    His style is definitely not mine
    but if he can make it work, I'm not going to fault him.

    Hey, to put it impolitely, if they can have Michelle Bachmann, we need a source of popcorn enjoyment too.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    [ Parent ]
    Sure, I'd buy that!


    [ Parent ]
    Thank Gosh
    I thought me and Weiner were the only ones. I like his politics but he comes off as the Michelle Bachman of our Party. I would vote for him but I would probably not volunteer very much for him and I know I am not going to give him money.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    He doesn't need our money anyway.


    [ Parent ]
    i live in fl-24
    which is right next door(plus i am 'connected' with the state political grapevine); the word is dan webster is being 'outhustled' and will lose(my opinion is webster was the only 'viable alternative' to grayson; ALL the other repub candidates are 'teh crazy' with a capital C

    [ Parent ]
    Daniel Webster
       should be running as the FL Whig Party candidate, not as a Republican. His 19th Century namesake would be pleased if he did...

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    We need to find candidates named
    Henry Clay and John C. Calhoun.

    And Robert LaFolette if possible.  Not anyone named Taft, though.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    [ Parent ]
    I was thinking
     Theodore Roosevelt of the Bull Moose party.  

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  


    [ Parent ]
    MA-10: How are you going to tout a fake degree?
    No way he didn't know that the college had been shut down for being fraudulent and even if he didn't, ignorance is no excuse for something as important as your own education.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    At least this is coming out now
    I initially thought that Joe Malone would be a slight favorite in the GOP primary because of name rec as a former statewide office holder (Treasurer), but I think it's safe to say that he'll be the nominee now.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Howard Dean?
    I'd forgotten he was still alive.  I'm not sure PA-06 and PA-07 are greta places where he can raise money.  But he should be prancing around so of the liberal places nationwide and in New England as well to help raise money.  Its cant all be Clinton and Obama with the fundraisers.

    Philadelphia Suburbs?
    Um, we've got plenty of Dean-loving liberals.

    [ Parent ]
    No way!
      Democrats here love Dean!  I bet that fundraiser does very well.  I wish I could attend, but I will be out of the area on that day.

    24, Male, GA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Childers has a new Ad up
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

    Solid effort from Childers
    Touting his conservative credentials and his famed mustache, but focusing primarily on the fact that he's a trustworthy good ole boy, unlike that lying liar Nunnelee guy--it's a good effort from Childers. I approve this message being approved by Childers.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    SC-Sen Greene howls at reporters
    Check out this news story:
    http://www.wistv.com/global/ca...

    Greene howls "Noooooooooo" and "Goooooooooo" at a local reporter.

    This whole thing and his entire campaign is just so bizarre!

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    mentally incapacitated
    Unlike a lot of other people, I didn't think Greene was mentally incapacitated.  His evasive interview answers simply sounded like answers from someone who didn't prepare.  This yelling is the first time I've really thought they might be something mentally wrong with him.

    [ Parent ]
    How embarrasing
    I still cannot believe he won the primary. He is bats.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    Again...
    What's the matter with South Carolina?

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    Geaux Melancon
    Oh hell yes! That ad from Melancon is brutal--because it's true. Even better, what's Vitter going to do besides obliquely attack Melancon for negative campaigning? If Vitter even mentions that ad specifically, it's just going to bring up all the horrible things he's done. Note to other politicians: if you're running against a horrifically awful sleazebag slimeball creep, you really should point that out to voters. Melancon just earned himself a $20 donation from me. Goddam, he's running a good campaign.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    Vitter's best strategy
    Will be to ignore Melancon to some extent and focus on Obama and generic Democrats in Washington.

    [ Parent ]
    Great ad, but...
    I still think LA is hopeless this year.  

    [ Parent ]
    I'm most intrigued by the Hotline blurb that says even GOP strategists believe...
    ...this race will tighten as we get closer because of Vitter's personal vulnerabilities.

    I hope that's right.

    We could use an upset win or two in Senate races on election night.

    As it is, Obama's job approvals are tanking badly the past week, and I've become exceedingly pessimistic that campaigns will matter much.  Harry Reid will win, as will Hickenlooper and Dayton and a few others who have peculiarly bad opponents or are running where unpopular elected state GOP leadership is offsetting our party's problems.  But otherwise things are getting actually worse for us.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    The problem for Melancon
    Is that Dems let LA-06 go very uncontested, and are not putting up a fight in LA-03. He needs high black turnout in LA-06 and high turnout in LA-03. He won't get black voters excited, and, IDK if he can turn out voters in LA-03 anymore. He better be hoping Richmond runs a very strong campaign in LA-02, because he needs those black voters.  

    [ Parent ]
    Campaigns always matter
    In this case, sure, Melancon will close but no way he wins. In others, while the national outlook is pretty much set in stone there is still time for individuals to improve their fortunes. There will be a wave certainly but their is still a huge question mark over how large it becomes.

    [ Parent ]

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