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DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle Leads by 13, Carney by More

by: James L.

Sun Aug 15, 2010 at 9:49 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (8/7-8, Delaware voters, no trend lines):

Chris Coons (D): 35
Mike Castle (R): 48
Undecided: 17

Chris Coons (D): 44
Christine O'Donnell (R): 37
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±4%)

Continuing today's stretch of deck-clearing posts, let's prod the body bag of Daily Kos' first horse race poll since cutting ties with the now-disgraced Research 2000.

The results are not awful for Chris Coons, who's still unknown to 39% of the electorate -- an indicative of both his room to grow and work that remains to be done (such as reversing the fact that Castle is picking up 30% of Democrats and 27% of liberals). It's also worth noting that these numbers are pretty much right in line with Rasmussen's latest.

John Carney (D): 48
Michele Rollins (R): 32
Undecided: 21

John Carney (D): 48
Glen Urquhart (R): 30
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)

Castle's at-large House seat is still one of the few bright lights for Democrats this fall, despite the large amounts of coin Rollins and Urquhart, two Some Dude-level candidates in terms of name recognition, are dumping out of their piggy banks.

Transparency Bonus: Kudos to PPP for willingly sharing their raw data file (.CSV) -- which is not something you usually see a pollster divulge. That raw data has already gone to use; just check out these cool visualizations made by Todd Stavish based on PPP's data.
James L. :: DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle Leads by 13, Carney by More
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DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle Leads by 13, Carney by More | 50 comments
Damn
Wish they woulda polled the Republican primaries.  
welcome to my world
every time they poll vt-gov, but not the primary.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
primary?
Does anyone think there's a real chance Castle could lose?
[ Parent ]
I don't
Castle is still popular among Republicans in Delaware. There hasn't been any poll released showing O'Donnell as a viable candidate. She is not comparable to Paul, Buck or Angle, all of whom ran against much weaker candidates (yes, Norton and Grayson were statewide officials, but not high profile ones). I think the sentiment below suggesting she is viable isn't based on anything other then wishful thinking.

Hell, even Kos (always willing to encourage a tea party challenge) doesn't see her as viable.  

[ Parent ]
Michele Rollins is overtouted.
  I keep hearing that she's wealthy = great candidate.  Delaware voters do not seem to be so sure.

24, Male, GA-05
How will they know her?
If she hasn't spent it yet. She raised 500k last quarter, with only 4,800 of her own money. She has not spent it yet. Just because someone has a huge warchest does not automatically mean they are well known or popular. They need to spend it to get there.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah.
   Well, supposedly this is the year when voters love outsider candidates for no other reason than they are outsiders.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I was down in Delaware last week.
Out of all the political signs I saw in New Castle and Kent County, Michelle Rollins had the most.

I saw a Flowers sign as well; he's a black Democrat running for the Democratic nomination for Treasurer.

Meh
Yard signs don't vote, but still an interesting anecdote.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
31/31/39
  Even favorables and unfavorables for Coons is not good.  Where is the unfavorable sentiment coming from?  

24, Male, GA-05
the ones who will always
disapprove?
[ Parent ]
The hardcore partisan baselines

are around 30-35% for each Party.

I'm irritated that Coons' favorable isn't higher.  The hardcore Republicans have already decided they don't like him, which is the price of running for high office.  But Coons should have locked up more favorability among moderate Democrats by now.  The split should be 40/30/30 by now- it's ten weeks to Election Day and he hasn't even consolidated his base in a basic way.

[ Parent ]
"by now"
Not if he's not spending yet, and it's a small electorate.
[ Parent ]
God, this leaving us in the dark on the primary
is killing me. For all we know O'Donnell could be within single digits of Castle and Democrats are writing this race off. It's not probable, obviously, but still.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
Is Johhny Cash big in DE?
Because his daughter is a supporter of Rollins: http://www.facebook.com/notes/...
Seems like a strange combination. I'd expect her to be fundraising for people in the South, not DE.  
Republican Primary.
   Having spent some time in Sussex County, Delaware, it would  not surprise me to see O'Donnell do very well there.  All the Republicans there were Teabaggers before the movement existed.  Not many people vote in Delaware Republican primaries.  I think O'Donnell has a chance.

24, Male, GA-05
No coincidence
Castle has a whopping 36% favorably rating in Sussex county....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
The primary numbers are what I would like to see as well
I'm not sure how conservative Delaware Republicans are, but there might be enough of a conservative bloc to put O'Donnell over the top. You wouldn't think Maine Republicans would adopt a tea party platform, but they did, so I think anything can happen in states where Republicans are viewed as more moderate.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
But doesn't everybody realize that O'Donnell is a loser
I mean republicans can't be that blind as to nominate a sure loser over a sure winner (except for Eric obviously but he probably doesn't have much influence in DE)  
[ Parent ]
After Sharron Angle.
  I am prepared to believe that Republicans will nominate any given nutcase.  

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
They are a lot of republican primaries with just a loser winning.

And sure winners in serious troubles like F Upton. The republican voters in the primaries are voting candidates like S Angle, P LePage, K Buck,...
[ Parent ]
Fred Upton is not in trouble (nm)

[ Parent ]
Primaries voters don't always make the best choices
It can all come down to ideology with a bloc of voters and the bloc can overrule the bloc that votes based on strategy and electability.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Common mistake.
   I think there's a common mistake to think that Republicans from liberal states are more moderate.  Republicans from California and Oregon, for example, are some of the most right-wing in the nation.  Now, Delaware Republicans may be more moderate, but I am not certain.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
That's an odd assertion
California Republicans are far to the left of the national average.

Of course a Republican in Weed is not the same as one in Chula Vista, but still it is total mythmaking to suggest California Republicans are more right wing.  The Obama vote totals being an objective counterpoint to that, as well as Charlie Brown's performace in the 4th.

Arnold, Whitman, Pete Wilson, Reagan, Nixon... all these folks are way to the left of center of the current GOP.

[ Parent ]
There are some moderates, but they are almost all gone
In the state legislature, just about all the Republicans are very conservative. California Republicans have shifted to the right, which accounts for reduced strength here.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
The voters, not the legislaturers
But even with elected officials, it is totally silly to think they are to the right of Mississippi Republicans.  The state is filled with moderate Republican voters who hardly ever have anyone they truly want to vote for.
[ Parent ]
Delaware Republicans are somewhat more moderate in New Castle County
since it's just about impossible for a conservative Republican to get elected north of Dover.
[ Parent ]
Used to be true
But the rest of the US R party has moved right.

There are a couple of pro-Labor Oregon Rs in the state assembly -- and in '08, Smith campaigned in part on how he worked with then Senator Obama. If you accept the notion that both Dudley and Alley are moderates, then perhaps 80% of the OR R electorate voted for moderates in the '10 primary. Now some Rs of the Oregon religious right are talking about real immigration reform.

ref http://www.portlandtribune.com...

At a time when no issue seems more polarizing and paralyzing for U.S. politicians, Nashif, Mannix and a surprising number of other conservative Christians are taking what some might call a liberal position on illegal immigrants in our midst

[ Parent ]
O'Donnell couldn't even win a primary against two other nobodies
She ran in 2006 and came in a distant third to Jan Ting and Michael Protack (who is also a joke of a candidate). Sharron Angle at least had a base of support to work off of, and she was able to raise money, which O'Donnell hasn't been able to.
[ Parent ]
My gut feeling...
Ever since he got into the race, I've felt that Chris Coons will win in November.  DE is one of the bluest states in the country.  Once the campaign season really starts, and he has Biden on the campaign trail with him, and talks about all of the party-line Republican votes Castle has made in the last two years, I really don't see how liberal or moderate voters won't move strongly in his direction.  Plus, he can make the case that a vote for Castle is a vote for returning Republicans to the majority in the Senate.  I think it'll be a close race either way, but Democrats would be stupid to write this race off.
He can underperform Obama by 12% and still win
I'm hopeful.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
According to Nate Silver...
  Delaware Republicans are some of the most liberal in the nation.  However, Kentucky Republicans are almost the most economically left-wing of any Republicans in the nation and they still nominated Rand Paul!

24, Male, GA-05
Link
[ Parent ]
Generaaly - nothing surprising
Castle maintains solid, but not overwhelming lead, and will win (may be - by 5-7, but still win) if he is a nominee. O'Donnell will surely lose general, even though Coons is not so well known, but she has a chance to win low-turnout primary. Carney is much better knownthen his opponents, respected, and, in addition, there may be some remorse among voters: Governorship seemed "his" in 2008 before Markell outhustled him, so voters may be willing to "reward" him with another important post. If Rollins will be a nominee and will be willing to spent - the gap will narrow, but, except for "Republican wave", Carney will still be favored  
Ugh, I've said it a dozen times before and I'll say it again...
Christine O'Donnell has ZERO chance of winning the primary. Zilch. Nada. Zip. The Tea Party doesn't make up a modest chunk, let alone a significant amount of the Delaware Republican Party. These are the only wackos who would pull the lever for her - the rank-and-file is 100% dead-set on Castle. This is a woman who garnered a whopping 17% in the '06 GOP primary, and who only won the '08 nod because she ran uncontested.

I'll be downright stunned if she breaks 25% in the primary.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Then, probably, say "hello" to Senator-elect Castle
By present standard of Republican party - really one of "the best" "things" it can offer (no irony intended, it's unreal to expect Jacob Javits now, so - at least, we have to settle for Castle, and i would like to see more candidates like him among Republicans)
[ Parent ]
Well, luckily we have nothing to worry about...
Since Castle will switch to the Democrats in either 2012 or 2014 and then resign so they can appoint Beau Biden.

(snark alert - this is a reference to Red State's Erik Erickson's conspiracy theory, obviously fed to him by an O'Donnell supporter)  

[ Parent ]
My Sen predictions
This is the way things look now to my amateur eyes.

Republicans will flip ND, AR, DE, IN, and CO. Of those five
races, the only race which I can see changing is CO.  If Bennett proves a good campaigner and if Buck fails at getting away with his McDonnell plot of hiding his extremism, then Bennett could win.  For DE and IN, Dem wins could be possible, but I don't know exactly what Coons and Ellsworth have to do in order to win.  They better do it quickly.

Dems will not flip any seat.  Right now, the most promising flip is NC.  But Marshall still has of yet to turn the polls in her favor.  At least she's trending in the right direction.  Maybe Hodes in NH can pull it off; he needs to rise in the polls as well.  Carnahan and Fisher are sinking; they really need some help.  KY and LA are such red states that I'm skeptical of flipping either seat.

KY isn't that red
it's red enough that the lean of the state is the only thing keeping Rand Paul afloat, but it's not comparable to LA where the state Democratic party is falling of a cliff. If I have my facts straight, Dems have a party ID advantage in KY but not LA.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Actually, you'd be wrong on that count
Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by a 2-1 margin in Louisiana (51% vs. 25%). Here's an even better one, registered white Democrats actually slightly outnumber registered black Democrats.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Learn something new every day!


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
agree on all but CO
...at least in terms of who I think is favored in each state. I think generic R beats generic D this year in CO, but Buck keeps putting his foot in his mouth and Bennet seems to be more disciplined.

I think Crist wins FL, effectively flipping it for the Dems.

Outside the ones you mention I think the Rs' best chance for a flip is IL, because Giannoulias is so weak. Angle in NV, Toomey in PA, Fiorina in CA, and possibly Johnson in WI are all too conservative (in their own ways) for their states. Rossi in WA might have a better chance than any of them.

I would not be surprised to see one or two underdogs win on each side.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Some problems
Kirk also has problems of his own. He had that lying military issue and IL lean toward Dems. Also the POTUS may help Giannouilas out.

IL is definitely one of the states that R had a really good chance of taking it over before losing that advantage because of the candidate  

[ Parent ]
DE could be the 'sleeper' of 2010...
Never forget how Biden came from WAY, WAY BACK, and late in the game at that, to win his first race.  It's a small state, things can change quickly.

If Coons runs a stellar campaign and Biden works it hard too, it could happen.  

One reason why the Biden comparison might be relevant this year
I believe he won in 1972, which seems like it should have been a pretty good Republican year. (the year of the Nixon landslide)  
[ Parent ]
1972
biden won by 3000 votes(out of 229,000 cast)
[ Parent ]
Does anyone mind if I speak my mind?
SCREW YOU JOE AND BEAU BIDEN! If Biden would have just let a replacement fill in for him in 08 we would not have to worry, but no he has to have a safety net. Any Dem would have won in 08, any. I guess he knew Beau could not take it, and that contributed. Now to Beau, the pompous asshole could not just take one for the team. He would have been very competitive and I think he could have won but no, he did not want to risk a loss. Screw them both if Joe runs in 2016 I will not support him in the primary. I don't care if he already has the nomination in the bag I'll still vote against him. Sorry I just had to get this off my chest.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I'm just as mad at Joe as you are
But I can very easily imagine that Beau really didn't want to run for the senate at all this year and this was something engineered entirely by Joe without really consulting his son.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Beau isn't the first son
who did something other than what his father wanted.
[ Parent ]
DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle Leads by 13, Carney by More | 50 comments

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