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SSP Daily Digest: 8/13

by: Crisitunity

Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 5:52 PM EDT


CO-Sen: On the Democratic side, we have a heart-warming love-in between Michael Bennet and Andrew Romanoff, bitter rivals until about 48 hours ago. Romanoff said supporting Bennet was "an easy call," while Bennet praised Romanoff for his stances on the issues, especially campaign finance reform. On the Republican side, well, there are no plans for a comparable unity event between Ken Buck and Jane Norton. Buck did raise some eyebrows with news that he went the full-on Paulist last year, though, lauding the gold standard and saying the main thing that would keep us from doing it is because there isn't enough gold available to do so (well, maybe we could stimulate the economy by hiring hundreds of thousands of grizzled prospectors to go out and find us that gold...).

DE-Sen: Is this a sign of unprecedented confidence in Delaware, as the GOP is spinning it... or worries that they need to bolster their preferred candidate Mike Castle, over unelectable-in-November Christine O'Donnell in the primary? The national party is sending three full-time staffers to work on the ground game in Delaware, which is three more than they do most cycles.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is out with an internal poll from Diane Feldman, giving him an 8-point lead over Jeff Greene, 38-30, after a week in which Greene's yacht (and the vomit that it was caked with) seemed to be the main story figuring in the press about the Senate race this week. (Perhaps confirming these numbers: Greene is now engaged in the last refuge of a guy about to lose a race, which is to start threatening libel suits, here against the St. Petersburg Times for its look into his real estate transactions.) Meek's also bolstered by two new anti-Greene IEs for TV spots, for a total of $260K from "Florida Is Not For Sale."

KY-Sen: The GOP seems to have let Rand Paul off his leash a little in the last few weeks, but between his Fancy Farm performance and some new items, they may be rethinking a return to his undisclosed location. Paul just said that eastern Kentucky's drug problem (where meth runs rampant and marijuana growth is common) is not "a pressing issue," and he topped that off by ditching local affiliate Fox reporters after taping a national Fox TV appearance in Lexington, in their own studio.

PA-Sen: If you've been wondering where the DSCC was going to launch its first IEs of this year, Pennsylvania seems like it's a good place to start. They're spending $452K on running an ad highlighting Pat Toomey's Wall Street background (good for 300 GRPs in Philly, 400 in Pittsburgh, and more in selected smaller markets). This will let Joe Sestak focus on marshalling his resources, as is his wont, while keeping the pressure on Toomey, who's been advertising continually.

SC-Sen: In case you were wondering if South Carolina could get any more farcical, Dem nominee Alvin Greene just finally got indicited on his pending obscenity charges for showing porn to a college student in a computer lab. I have no idea what the trial's timetable is, but maybe Dems could actually get a new candidate in there if he's convicted before November?

CO-Gov: Ruh roh. The Colorado rumor mill has Dan Maes, the guy who swore he wouldn't drop out, meeting with the state GOP about... dropping out. They've already been conspicuous in their silent non-support of Maes, who won Tuesday's primary. Despite the meeting, though, Colorado Pols still seems to think that the posture from the Maes camp is one of a man who isn't dropping out, and he's meeting with them to try and get some additional support. At any rate, something would need to happen by Sep. 3, at which point the November ballot is finalized.

MD-Gov: Fundraising numbers are out in Maryland. Republican Bob Ehrlich has almost kept pace with Dem incumbent Martin O'Malley over the course of this year, with Ehrlich raising $3.2 million and O'Malley raising $3.3 million in '10 (and O'Malley couldn't fundraise until April, because of the legislative session). O'Malley's been building up funds for a longer time, though; O'Malley's CoH advantage is 3:1, with $6.7 million banked compared to $2 million for Ehrlich.

WY-Gov: Hmmm, this should turn the dominant media narrative about next week's Wyoming GOP gubernatorial primary into "OMG! Palin/Bush proxy battle!" The Bush in question, though is George H.W. (41) Bush, who extended an endorsement today to Colin Simpson, the state House speaker and son of his long-time pal ex-Sen. Alan Simpson.

MI-01: The final count's over in MI-01, and it's Dan Benishek by a whopping 15 votes, over state Sen. Jason Allen. The ball's in Allen's court now; he has until Sunday morning to file a written request for a recount that would need to allege mistakes or fraud.

TX-17: Here's an interesting stance from Republican challenger Bill Flores, especially considering this is a red enough district that it may be one of the few places in the country where John Boehner has positive ratings. But in response to questions whether he'd support His Orangeness for Speaker if the GOP had a majority in the House, Flores ducked the question, saying he'd cross that bridge if he got elected.

Rasmussen:
CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 31%, Tom Tancredo (I) 18%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 47%, Linda McMahon (R) 40%
GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 42%, Nathan Deal (R) 51%
MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 45%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%, Tom Horner (I) 10%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/13
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wow
I shall show the most edited Wikipedia page I have ever seen. Prepare yourselves it is one big press release made into a wikipedia page.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K...  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


That's going to need some editing later :)


[ Parent ]
who would replace Maes
if he drops out?

What a weird election. The Colorado GOP really screwed things up this year.


Probably Norton
I doubt Hick loses whatever happens. Though it would be closer certainly.

[ Parent ]
Norton would make sense
Just to get any supporters that she had that won't turnout for Buck to vote, and she has an existing organization in the state. Then they have Dick Larimer (I think?), the ReMax founder, who has the money to run, since CO is a very hard state to raise money it. I think the ideal choice is former Gov. Bill Owens, but he probably ain't interested.  

[ Parent ]
his last name is like Liniger or something
Larimer is a county in CO, lol.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Woops
His first name isn't Dick either. Its DAVE Liniger.

[ Parent ]
KY-Sen: I've been waiting all day to write about this
For a long time, we've talked on SSP about whether Paul's "weirdness" could alienate rural voters in Kentucky, and I think this is an excellent example of just that. I had personally expected him to damage himself more on issues relating to farmers, but these comments about drug enforcement work just as well. Better, in fact.

Firstly, there's now a recurring trend of Paul demonstrating a lack of knowledge about the various localities of the state he wants to represent. Things like the Harlan County flap or his more recent comment about "beer throwing" at Fancy Farm are fun to laugh at, but not truly significant. These comments about anti-drug programs are, however. Rural drug abuse is a "pressing issue", contrary to Paul's assertions. I personally come from a relatively sparsely populated part of Indiana right across the Ohio River from KY, and we have plenty of problems combating the methamphetamine trade out here, to the point that almost any candidate for a position like county sheriff addresses drugs before practically any other issue. Paul, making these comments, comes off as either ignorant and out of his depth, or just indifferent to these problems because of his 'principles' when it comes to federal spending.

The other thing here is that Jack Conway, despite having not been state AG for very long, has a pretty decent "law and order" reputation, although beyond the prescription drug bust that Bluegrass Politics mentions, most of Conway's better publicized efforts were in areas such as combating Medicare fraud and price gouging at gas stations. Nevertheless, this is a fantastic opening for a strong contrast to be made between Conway, the top law enforcement official in the state, and Paul.

I think, properly exploited, these comments could be far more damaging to Paul's campaign than even his statements about the Civil Rights Act were. There's just so many angles to hit him from on this, and besides that, this is an issue that frankly I think is far more relevant to the types of voters Conway needs to win.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


how does conway currently stand with rural couty sheriff's?
do you know? they usually have a type of political "machine" in that type of county that is great at gotv(and clearly these type of gaffes by paul can't help with small county law enforcement)

[ Parent ]
Being from a small Indiana town
That has a drug problem might require that local officials, particularly law enforcement, need to speak about drigs.

The question is, was combating drugs a huge part of Mitch Daniels' recent campaigns for governor or Evan Bayh/Dick Lugar's campaigns for Senator?

I'm guessing its probably not a HUGE issue in statewide races, and certainly not 2010, when issues like the economy, jobs, immigration, marriage equality and taxes are front and center already.


[ Parent ]
Just
curious where in Indiana are you from?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I'm not
I was making reference to Bob's point.  I'm in Philadelphia.  

[ Parent ]
True
but Daniels, Bayh and Lugar (who has not had a competitive election in years regardless) are not former Attorney Generals who can tout what they have done in terms of fighting drugs. Conway could use his background to his advantage on this. You are right that it is not a huge issue now but Conway could make it into one like Beshear did with legalized gambling in 07.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
So many bigger issues.  And I didn't think Conway was especially liked by conservatives or rurals, so I don't really know where he can go on this.  Has the drug problem subsided since he took over?

I mena he doesn't even have crime/law enforcement listed under his "On he Issues" section on his website.  Nor is there anything about him in relation to drugs under the "Meet Jack" part of the website either.

Personally, if Conway goes with this type of strategy I think the race is probably over.


[ Parent ]
There
are bigger issues but let me point to Kentucky's 2007 gubernatorial election. Legalized gambling was something that many people were for but it was really never talked about a lot. But people wanted it, they saw how children in Indiana did not have to pay anything for textbooks and the other positives and they wanted it but it was never much of an issue before then and no one thought it would become one. But Beshear ran on it, made it talked about it constantly and he became known for it. In the beginning of the election Fletcher and his henchman went as far as say Beshear wanted more abortions because according to him legalized gambling led to abortions and towards the end of the campaign when he knew he was getting his ass kicked he almost came out in favor of it. I will give brownie points to anyone who can find the commercial of Fletcher saying something to the effect "I know this campaign has become centered on gambling and I know you want it I will rethink the issue" I could not find it but I remember laughing hard when I saw it. I mean no disrespect but you are from Philly and do not fully comprehend the problem of meth and other drugs in rural areas. You really have to live here to understand. Everyone feels it, it is on the news all of the time. People hate knowing that their peaceful god fearing communities are top meth producers. This could be Conway's legalized gambling, albeit not likely as you point out he has not started campaigning on it yet but if he had then it could have been a winning strategy. As to your points of him being AG and the problem not subsiding well fair but I am sure he could point to some accomplishments and hype them up. Personally I think it is probably a bit late to implement such a strategy but I think it would have been a good strategy had he campaigned on this from the start. Like Beshear proved sometimes people want to be informed and persuaded on an issue that does not get a lot of limelight.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
The main difference
Is that COnway was in a position to do something, Beshear wasn't.  He ran on his being governor allowing him to institute legalized gambling.  Conway can't run on being more anti-drug, what position elected statewide has more impact on crime prevention and prosecution than Attorney General?

Also, I live in Philly, I grew up in a rural area on a farm.  More cows than people in my hometown.  Its not that I don't understand.  Its just that its not a major statewide campaign issue in any state really.  Pretty much evidenced by Mitch Daniels winning and not running on it and Beshear running and winning without doing much with it as an issue.  Its a community issue, which can become statewide issues, but its not always the case.

For instance, a big issue in my hometown in upstate NY just recently went up for a vote in the state legislature that would have had a big impact on rural communities.  It was a requirement to pay overtime wages to farm workers (currently farm employees don't get OT through some exemption).  Rick Lazio could not build a campaign out of this issue, even upstate, because there are bigger issues, even though this one would have impacted a decent amount of people in rural areas.


[ Parent ]
I'm not thinking about this on a statewide scale
But I will say that I don't think there's any part of Kentucky where talking about how your opponent wants to stop Federal funding for programs that bust drug dealers (and having very specific quotes and policy positions to point to) would hurt your own chances of winning.

I believe the general line of thought we've seen is that, at the very least, Conway has to win by a large margin in the 3rd District, score a convincing win in the 6th, and at least run even in the 5th, which covers most of Eastern Kentucky (as most have mentioned, coal mining, somewhat unionized country. Conservative labor Dems here). I think a localized strategy of hitting Conway hard on this issue in places like the 5th, while talking about other relevant federal programs like farm subsidies in other districts, would be tremendously effective. Paul's campaign can respond with platitudes about federal spending and high taxes, but I suspect even most conservatives won't be sold on the idea of cutting funding for rural policing.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Er
Hitting Paul hard on this issue. Not Conway.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I guess my only concern would be
If I'm Paul, I'd shoot back with this:

"You, Jack Conway, were Attorney general for 4 years.  What did you do to stop this drug problem?  Why did you focus your office's efforts on other priorities?"

Any business meeting I've ever been in, where its heated and people are bing called out, the accuser becomes the accused as step 1 of fighting for your job.  I just don't think Conway has a good response on this.  If he does, then I'm all for it.

I also wonder where drugs ranks on priority lists for most voters.  If Tax cuts, jobs and immigration are brought up, doesn't Paul win with most rural voters?


[ Parent ]
I disagree w/you on this, I think the rural drug problem is a good hit for Conway......
Paul's comeback that you cite isn't much of one, especially since one commenter noted Conway DID get a publicized bust on prescription drug abuse.

Paul's comments are appalling to average voters.  While I recognize there are potheads and political junkies who favor marijuana legalization and that position sells in a very few places like California, the fact is most Americans remain very anti-drug, and parents of underage children moreso than all others.  This is a deeply personal issue for a LOT of voters.  I'm an Iowa native with close family still there, and meth has been a big problem in rural Iowa for 20 years running just like everywhere else.  Ordinary voters care about this.

Conway can use Paul's drug comments on two levels, both the micro level of attacking him for his stance on drugs, and on the macro level of establishing he's too extremist and radical for Kentucky.

I finally will add that the commenter is dead-on correct that Paul's drug comments are more damaging than his civil rights act comments, and I'll go further and say they're MUCH more damaging.  While he's a whack job on civil rights, the fact is those laws are settled and not on the table for any amendment or repeal in anyone's political or policy playbook outside Paul's merry band of ivory tower libertarians.  Average white Kentucky voters don't care THAT much about it, even though it does give them pause.  But a lot more voters care very much about drug abuse as something that affects their lives in real time.  Most people these days know someone they care about who has struggled with substance abuse.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Conway needs to pay attention to the 1st and 2nd Districts in KY too
Conway has an opportunity to chip away votes in KY-1 and KY-2 on the farm subsidies issue. Paul has already had to walk back being against them, and clearly it won't be hard to paint Paul as being ideologically against them . Farmers in these districts still vote Democratic locally, and if Paul if portrayed effectively as threatening their federal subsidies many will support Conway on that issue alone. He will probably still lose both districts, but trimming the margins would make a huge impact.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Excellent point...
.. I grew up on a farm and farmers pay very close atttention to farm legislation that others voters know absolutely nothing about.

[ Parent ]
The problem for Paul is it cuts into rural votes he needs
In statewide races, sometimes being on the wrong side of an issue in one region can tilt votes. An issue like this localizes the race and that's the last thing Paul wants, because that takes away from the national narrative Republicans are using.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Meth
is a huge problem in rural KY. As are prescription drugs. As you know I live right next to you in Harrison County and I know every time you see a Sherriff's debate meth is the number one topic. The incumbent Sherriff is highly unpopular as you know but despite his other great faults (murder, torture, nepotism, attempted rape, racism) he would probably still be unpopular because of his lack of enforcement on drug issues. Sadly he is a dem. We may very well elect a Republican for Sherriff this year who has only lived here three years only because he focuses on drugs, people want action. Kentucky is just the same as us and you are right this hurts Paul greatly.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Woops
Did not mean to put greatly. Meant to put somewhat. What I am trying to say is Conway is in a position to run a anti drug campaign do to his position and if he does a great job at it then it could hurt Paul greatly but probably not, but it will not help him or hurt Conway any.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Paul
Didn't he also say that mine safety regulations were unnecessary? I can't imagine that went over well in eastern KY.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Yup
Conway has lots to work with. He'll have to do it with ads though because once this stuff makes news other stuff comes along to take its place. Have to hammer home a constant message just as Harry Reid is doing. The overlapping theme seems to be one of ideology over commonsense and the public good.

[ Parent ]
Jack Conway
perfectly sums up Rand Paul's positions on the issues in his Fancy Farm speech. (God help us all if he or Sharron Angle win in November.)

Here's the best line from him:

Conway: "And what did Mitch McConnell say to the Republican National committee the morning after the primary?"
Crowd: "Accidents happen!"

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
It was a great line
One of these years I really want to go to Fancy Farm (its about like 5 hours from where I live) -- for both the food and the politics.  It really is a throwback to political speeches of another era, where candidates can expect to be heckeled and shouted down -- and I think Jack Conway's somewhat combative personality is perfect for this type of environment.

[ Parent ]
Impressive on the stump...
... I wish we could clone him and run him against DeMint.

[ Parent ]
the ras georgia poll
is great news for roy barnes(and of course, john mccain)

Rasmussen hearts Deal
He had him doing well when nobody else did. Maybe he was right and everybody else was wrong but I doubt it. Incidentally, I see Huckabee is taking the credit for his nomination. Probably some truth to that.

[ Parent ]
agreed totally
that is why i think this ras poll actually shows barnes in a strong position(as far as reality is concerned)

[ Parent ]
I think
It has more to do with Gingrich and gay-baiting. Gingrich is probably more popular and well known among GA Republicans. Also, the one thing that never fails in a southern Republican primary: "My opponent loves fags!"
(No, I am not insulting gay people, I'm just interpreting Deal's message)  

[ Parent ]
Gay baiting works inn the south.
Sadly that is completely true.
-zak

"Here's a toast to all those nurses and doctors who daily provide women with a choice who stand down a threat the size of Oklahoma City just to listen to a young woman's voice"
-Ani DiFranco


[ Parent ]
Who wants to see some ads?
IL_10:

Seals:

Dold:

And this is the first ad from the DSCC:


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


Several 'We Ask America' Ohio Congressional House Polls
OH-1 (8/4/10 - 1001 Registered Voters)

(D) Steve Driehaus 38.70%
(R) Steve Chabot 50.77%

OH-12 (8/4/10 - 995 Registered Voters)

(R) Patrick Tiberi 51.10%  
(D) Paula Brooks 34.42%

OH-15 (8/4/10 - 998 Registered Voters)

(D) Mary Jo Kilroy 40.64%
(R) Steve Stivers 46.33%

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/0...


Is it a requirement
That if you run for Congress in the state of Ohio your first name must be "Steve"?

[ Parent ]
Oh newbie!
Do a search there is a whole thread on the "Ohio Steve" phenomenon somewhere. In terms of these polls I was surprised Kilroy is that close.

[ Parent ]
I
wonder what StephenCLE will have to say since he's a big fan of Kilroy. I think the gains we made in Ohio and Pennsylvania are most likely to be erased this election cycle.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I still think
TN, AR and NY have the worst potential.  TN and AR because of retirements, NY because 27-2 just isn't viable long-term.

[ Parent ]
yeah, you're right about 27-2...
after redistricting it has to become 27-1 :)

in all seriousness, I think NY is one area where the rightward trend of the national GOP is going to absolutely kill them in future Dem wave years. Another 2006-like year in the next decade and it's not inconceivable that NY could be all-Dem.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Although on the other hand....
With the way the Democrat Governor, the Democrat State Assembly and the Democrat run State Senate have been governing New York for the last 2 years the GOP might be poised for a comeback in NY.

Its lucky for the Dems that the NYS GOP couldnt get anyone better than Rick Lazio to run.


Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
But I can think of only one Steve running for Congress in those states
(Steve Israel)

So all other analyses apply only in the sense of snark....


[ Parent ]
Congressional Steve Caucus?
LA-01: Steve Scalise
NY-02: Steve Israel
OH-01: Steve Chabot (replacing Steve Driehaus)
OH-07: Steve Austria
OH-15: Steve Stivers

Missing any?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Steves
Steve King, IA-5 and SSP favorite Steve Cohen, TN-9.

[ Parent ]
Good catches...
I also remembered Steve Kagen (WI-08). An eight-member caucus, not bad!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Stephen Lynch


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I think he goes by Stephen though
maybe he can be an honorary member.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Steve Rothman NJ-9


26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
good catch...
I also forgot another Ohio Steve, Steve LaTourette (OH-14).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Ohio yes, but Pennsylvania?
We've gained 5 seats over the last 2 cycles in PA (IIRC?) I don't see us losing more than 3 max in 2010. PA-7, PA-11, and maybe PA-10 or PA-3, with PA-4 and PA-8 extreme longshots. And we have a chance of winning PA-6

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
PA comes down to Sestak and Onorato
In and of itself, I definitely don't see a wave in PA.  But if Corbett crushes Onorato and Toomey beats Sestak, who knows how bad it could get.  If Sestak wins and Corbett wins, then I'd agree that 3 is the max.

PA is probably a 50-50 state in 2010 and there's no shame if the delegation represents that, since its not permanent (i.e. the seats lost "could" be flipped back some day soon)


[ Parent ]
PA
Ya'll will atleast be saved by the crappy fundraising of some of our candidates. Corbett, Meehan, Toomey, Barletta, and Rothfus are taking all the PA Republican donors money, and not leaving any for Marino, Argall, Burns (not like he needs money), and Kelly.

[ Parent ]
My initial impression on these polls is this...
OH-1 - Driehaus is in a no-win situation because of the fact that minorities simply aren't engaged, and the suburbs of Cincinnati are extremely conservative, as are most white voters in the district.  I suppose he could've voted like a real pain-in-the-butt blue dog and opposed everything from the stimulus down to HCR in an attempt to get conservative whites to vote for him, but then he probably would've been squeezed from the left in the primary, probably by a black democrat.  12 points is going to be extremely hard to make up.

OH-12 - Unfortunately, I think Paula Brooks picked the wrong cycle to take on Patrick Tiberi.  Being down 17 when you aren't all that well known in an environment like this isn't horrible, but I don't really see how she can come all the way back to win.  She's probably looking at about a 10% or so loss the way things are going, but you never know, she's fundraised very well and if she campaigns well this still has a chance to get interesting.  Other polls have more or less corroborated this result.

OH-15 - Obviously, since I have this race at Toss Up/Tilting Republican, I was thinking that this race would be close to tied, and though Stivers being up 5 points is a slight dissapointment, I don't think Kilroy is DOA by any stretch.  Certainly she's not as bad off as Driehaus, Perriello, Boswell, Kanjorski, etc. assuming their respective polls are accurate.  Stivers, unlike most challengers this cycle, has to be fairly well known to most of the district because of their battle in 2008 and his time as a state senator, so I don't really see him grabbing a big lead and pulling away unless Kilroy doesn't campaign well.  As with Driehaus, maybe Kilroy ought to have thrown independent voters a bone here or there on HCR, Cap-n-trade, stimulus, fin reg, etc and opposed the majority, but she's cast her lot that Columbus's liberal base and bluing trend will help her pull it out.  At this point it looks tough, but not impossible.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
Re Kilroy's voting record, I don't think "throwing a bone" helps at all......
My observation so far is that mixing and matching in votes doesn't help a Democratic incumbent this year.

The guys who really opposed the party on every major vote are doing OK.  That's a big reason Minnick is surviving in spite of my view for over a year that he'd be dead no matter what.  And it's also why I suspect a guy like Childers might survive in spite of his supposed vulnerability.

And the people who voted with the party consistently from tough districts, like Perriello, at least have a chance to gin up base turnout, especially in races like his that are likely low-turnout contests with no coattails from above.

But mixing and matching only earns the ire of all sides.  The one exception to that, I think, is you can get away with having voted "yes" on the stimulus and "no" on all the other major stuff.  Voters were fine with giving the stimulus a chance, and they're not holding that vote against Democrats nearly as much as a few other things that conservative-leaning or low-information (two different groups) swing voters don't like.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Maddow even gave a shot out to an SSP diarist
who pointed this out!

[ Parent ]
Great numbers from Rasmussen on MN-Gov
Even they cant find close to a GOP lead.  Although I do think Emmer could only be at a low point currently, he just needs to figure out how to not say stupid things.  Which if Paul, Angle, and hometown girl Bachmann are any indication, he's screwed.  But he had his fuck-up period and got away with it because it was the summer and there was a DFL primary, but next time he says something as stupid as servers make $100k a year and new their wages already at the minimum cut to below that.

I predict Dayton will cream him in Greater MN, Emmer will take the exurbs and the further out suburbs, and Horner will be able to break double digits very easily in the 2nd ring, upper class suburbs T-Paw relied on to win.  Emmer simply cannot win with the same map T-Paw did because of Horner and his only option is to go Greater MN and Dayton has that covered Klobuchar style.


I think
I figured out how to atleast get Tancredo out in CO. Haley Barbour is probably a lot better with words than Wadhams, and may get a message across better than Tancredo. I think Tancredo would drop out if Wadhams resigned and he was promised consideration for the replacement if Maes drops out. Thats the problem though: Getting Maes out. The guy is nuts, so maybe if we told him the UN would take over his neighborhood if he stayed in the race because he discovered their secret plot, he'd get out? I know, all wishful thinking.  

Meh.
"Consideration" seems like it'd be an awfully tepid and unattractive word for Tancredo. He'd probably want something more concrete.

[ Parent ]
Of course Rass is still going to
show Hickenlooper about 5 points weaker than I've seen him in any poll in a month and two incredibly toxic conservative challengers adding up to easily beat him. What a load of shit that pollster is.

In other news, I read something that gave me more hope for November:

new wall st. journal/nbc poll shows the repubs have a HUGE generic-ballot lead in the South (52%-31%), but nowhere else. In the Northeast, Dems have a 55%-30% edge; in the Midwest, they lead 49%-38%; and in the West, it's 44%-43%. these same southerners were dems when the dem party was virulently racist. go figure.

I wonder if it's a radically Republican south that's giving the Republicans a narrow edge in other Generic ballot polls? If so it makes me more confident Shea-Porter and other tough Democratic seats in the northeast will pull through, and it also tells me the midwest might not be as bad as I feared. In Ohio I think the real battle is to protect Space, Kilroy and Bocceri, imminently doable. Dreihaus will probably lose and Democrats might be able to get him a more favorable district and he can run again and maybe win in 2012.  


I thought the same thing...
... if we can help the hard-core survivor Southerners (Bobby Bright, Heath Shuler,Travis Childers,etc.) to hang on concentrate on the Midwest and Northeast, Democrats might not have such a bad day come November.      

[ Parent ]
We
don't need to focus on the "hard-core survivor Southerners." We are going to lose more seats in the Midwest.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Isn't that what I said...
.. the few southerners that have a genuine path to victory like those I listed, get help.  Forget about the open seats in the south and the ones with no path to victory.  

Put the bulk of the money and resources in the Midwest  and Northeast.  


[ Parent ]
I dunno, I can almost buy the Ras number...
I don't subscribe to their internals, but I imagine they'd have Maes leading among registered Republicans and Tancredo leading among conservative Independents. The former, of course, is a more sizable chunk than the latter.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
but those things
DO NOT amount to 48% of the Colorado Electorate, and Tancredo and Maes are probably getting no more than 85% of those groups anyway.  

[ Parent ]

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