| I'm going to go way out on a limb and predict that the Republicans pick up somewhere between 15 and 63 seats.
The 15 seats I am pretty confident Dems will lose (in alphabetical order):
AR-02 - Might have been competitive with Wills.
IA-03 - Two Republican polls have Zaun up and I believe he is.
KS-03 - Not sure how Moore switcheroo can work in an anti-incumbent year.
LA-03 - Dems seem to be conceding this.
MS-01 - Nunnellee internal has him up 8, and I tend to believe it.
NH-02 - Well-known Bass way ahead in polls.
NY-29 - Dems seem to be conceding this.
OH-01 - Multiple polls show Driehaus down double digits. I believe that he is down, though maybe not by that much.
OH-15 - Logic leads me to believe Kilroy is in similar shape as Driehaus.
PA-07 - Huge internal poll lead for Meehan.
PA-11 - Big internal poll lead for Barletta. Kanjorski is addicted to putting his foot in his mouth.
TN-06 - Dems seem to be conceding this.
TX-17 - Edwards beating Flores makes no sense to me after tight 2008 race with unfunded Curnock.
VA-02 - I believe the Rigell poll showing him ahead.
VA-05 - I don't think Periello is down 23 like SUSA says, but I do believe he's down.
Touted races I am pretty confident Dems will win:
CT-04 - Monster fundraising for Himes.
ID-01 - Labrador down big in his own poll.
IN-02 - Big lead for Donnelly in pro-lifer poll.
IN-09 - Young significantly down in his own poll.
KY-06 - Big lead for Chandler in independent poll.
NC-08 - PPP showed Kissell ahead by 6.
NJ-03 - Independent poll featured on front page shows Adler ahead.
NY-13 - Internal poll for McMahon has him way ahead.
PA-12 - Don't see why Burns would win the second time around.
TN-04 - Republican internal had Davis up 11.
TX-23 - Republican internal had Rodriguez up.
VA-09 - SUSA has Boucher up big.
WV-01 - Oliviero up big in internal.
Races where I just don't know:
AL-02 - Would bet a current poll would be much closer than dusty Bright internal.
AR-01 - Woolridge sour grapes hurting Causey, who otherwise should win this.
AZ-01 - This is a tough district and maybe a sleeper, but Republicans are underfunded.
AZ-05 - My gut tells me Mitchell may lose. Tough, wealthy district.
AZ-08 - Hope Jesse Kelly is right with his primary poll. He would be the easiest to beat.
CA-11 - Another sleeper. Harmer is a real go-getter for the Republicans.
CO-04 - Tend to believe we'll lose this, but no polling confirms it.
FL-02 - I'm somewhat doubtful of Southerland internal with him up 15.
FL-08 - No friggin' clue. Huge money advantage but internal from also ran Republican Todd Long shows Grayson down.
FL-22 - This will be one of the most expensive races in the country.
FL-24 - Crowded Republican primary may help Kosmas in tough district. No polling.
GA-08 - Tend to feel good about Marshall, but would love to see a poll.
IL-11 - Multiple partisan polls show Kinzinger up. I tend to believe it, but not quite convinced.
IL-14 - Big $$$ advantage for Foster.
IL-17 - Not in love with Hare's response to Schilling internal showing himself up big.
IN-08 - Republicans should win this one, but Bucshon isn't much of a candidate.
MA-10 - What a mess with all the third party candidates. Would love to see a poll.
MD-01 - Conflicting polling, but I'm not feeling good about this one.
MI-01 - Tough call with Benishek in, knock on wood. Weak fundrasing for McDowell.
MI-07 - Walberg internals have him up, but I'm not quite convinced.
MN-01 - Tend to think Walz will be OK. Demmer raised serious $$$ last quarter though.
MO-04 - Tend to think Skelton will pull this out, but would love to see a poll.
NC-11 - Conflicting polling data. Tend to think Shuler will be OK.
ND-AL - Last Rasmussen poll tight. Pomeroy was reddest-district Dem to vote yeah on HCR.
NH-01 - Shea-Porter ahead in recent polling.
NM-01 - Conflicting polling. My sense is that Heinrich is ahead by high single digits.
NM-02 - All polling on this has been tight.
NV-03 - Titus ahead in latest M/D poll.
NY-01 - This will be another enormously expensive race.
NY-19 - No friggin' clue. Would love to see a poll. Self-funder Hayworth has $$$ advantage.
NY-20 - Was feeling good about this, but then Gibson came up with monster $$$ for Q2.
NY-23 - Have a feeling Hoffman will fuck this up for the Republicans one way or the other.
NY-24 - Everybody's writing Arcuri off, but would love to see a poll.
OH-13 - We'll see if money really IS everything.
OH-16 - Not sure if I believe Republican poll showing big Renacci lead.
OH-18 - Republican internal with race tied does not impress me much.
OR-05 - No polling but Republicans are talking this one up.
PA-03 - Conflicting polls here. Wouldn't be surprised if it is close.
PA-04 - Tend to like Altmire's chances, but no polling so far.
PA-08 - Worried about this one, but no polling.
PA-10 - Huge $$$ lead for Carney.
SC-05 - PPP showed a small lead for Spratt some time ago.
SD-AL - Not sure I believe Rasmussen and his big Noem lead, but not sure I disbelieve it either.
TN-08 - Impressive Fincher primary victory makes me less sanguine on this one.
VA-11 - Not sure I'm buying Fimian internal showing lead.
WA-03 - Dem Heck has big $$$ advantage.
WI-07 - Historically Dem district, but Lassa is playing catchup in fundraising.
WI-08 - Could be a sleeper. Crowded Republican primary may help Kagen. |
