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KY-03: Yarmuth Looks Good

by: James L.

Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 7:39 PM EDT

Braun Research for cn|2 (8/9-10, likely voters, no trend lines):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 52
Todd Lally (R): 29
Michael Hansen (I): 1
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.4%)

The class of 2006 and 2008 represent some of the best targets for Republicans to shoot for this fall, but we at least we can feel pretty good about John Yarmuth's chances at a third term in his Louisville-based district. And that's good to hear, as Yarmuth is a great representative who's proven to be a solid fit for his district -- his approval rating according to this poll is 62-32.

In an interview with cn|2, Lally's campaign manager pushed back at the poll's results, in part by claiming that "we've already had independent polls that are closer". That's a pretty curious thing to say, considering that the only other polls of this race that have been released this cycle, according to SSP Archives & Storage, were a Yarmuth internal that pegged the race at 58-32, and Lally internal from the obscure Rivercity Polling group which claimed that Yarmuth only had a 1-point lead on Lally. Surely the Lally campaign isn't suggesting that their own pollster, who produced the outlier in this triad of surveys, should be considered an independent source?

James L. :: KY-03: Yarmuth Looks Good
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It's "independent" of Yarmuth's group?

No surprises at all. Yarmuth has his job as long as he wants it and I sure as hell hope it's awhile. Goodness I bet Abramson regrets passing in 2006, he did not think he could beat Northup and this liberal some dude editor who had never sought public office does it. Believe it or not Northup was fairly popular and still is, heck I'll admit I did not mind her in many ways, she brought home the bacon and was active in the bridges project. But she kept on defending Bush, never tried to distance herself. If she would have kept a somewhat moderate looking voting record. But no. I know many conservatives and while they may not like Yarmuth's politics they like him personally. He is very engaged, you see him on the local news and at local events all of the time. Louisville is a big city but it really does have a small community feel to it in many ways. I love the area, I work there and lived there for a few years. It is great. By chance does anyone know if they did the Mayors race? I would love to see some more data.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Yup, they did
Fischer leads Heiner by 41-34:

[ Parent ]
SUSA showed the race tied, I am happy to see Fischer doing well. It is no secret I like him a lot.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Is it true
that more conservative whites are moving out of Louisville and this district is becoming more like TN-9 and less like the district that the GOP held?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

Not so sure
It has always been fairly liberal, regardless of what PVI it is. Remember we held onto this seat in 94 despite the wave, I did not follow politics that much in 96 but I believe Ward ran a bad campaign and well Northup did well in Washington and was able to do well with Indies and dems and hold onto this seat for a decade. Northup was a good Congresswoman and people liked her. A lot had to do with her work on the Ohio Bridges project. She knew how to bring home the bacon. A lot of dems supported her until 06 when her connections with Bush and her conservative voting record finally caught up with her. Why she did not throw a few symbolic votes to our side from time to time when it did not matter so she could claim to be moderate is beyond me.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Of course,
Yarmuth's success can be mostly attributed to his staunch pro-kittens-in-a-blender stance.

k, so I'm missing something
fill me in please? :D

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami."

[ Parent ]
Daily Show

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
You mean
the Colbert Report, Better Know a District.  

[ Parent ]

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
And to think
If it weren't for The Speaker, that segment would of been killed off.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
A Good Fit? Really?
John Yarmuth is a media darling in Louisville. He would actually have to do the kittens in the woodchipper thing (Colbert Report) in order to NOT have favorable coverage. All the media hacks think JY is their buddy, because he used to socialize with a lot of them when he published LEO. Considering he never gets any negative coverage, it kind of surprises me his approval isn't higher.  That doesn't mean he is a good fit for the district.          

If his voting record (over 90% with Pelosi) was scrutinized by the local media hacks, I don't think he'd be so popular. Outside of the Highlands/Crescent Hill- Germantown - and West Louisville, Louisville is a lot more conservative than you would think. If at some point it would appear that Lally had a shot at winning this thing, a lot of support (money) would swing his way. Unfortunately for Lally, the perception is that he can't win this thing, so money and vocal support are staying away. Twenty-three points is a big deficit, but it isn't insurmountable, especially if Rand Paul an Hal Heiner run strong in Jeff. County.  

Conway will win Jeff County easily
Good job on the spin mind you.

[ Parent ]
media is the problem
Perhaps, but it is very true that the local media give Yarmuth a pass on everything. I'd just like to see somebody ask him a tough question...that's all.

[ Parent ]
The media is always to blame
When ya losing! See it on our side all the time too.

[ Parent ]
Your rude and assenine comments
Are going to get you banned rel quick. Keep it up and you'll be gone like that. The mods don't fuck around with dumb trolls like you.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
You are a good spin doctor. But seriously no one likes trolls. Good Bye.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Well gee Mr. Registered-For-Two-Hours
if you say it I believe it.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami."

[ Parent ]
Obama's Poll Numbers
I just read the actual CN/2 article that indicated that Obama's approval numbers are at 56%. This should tell you that maybe the poll was skewed to west Louisville and the Highlands. There is NO WAY his approval numbers are that high across the district.

Probably not
But Yarmuth is still a heavy favorite even if you cut his lead in half.

[ Parent ]
it is not unreasonable for them to be that high. I have said for years it is a very liberal area regardless of it's PVI. Ignore the troll.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
He got 56% in 2008
He has lost some ground everywhere so I don't see how Jefferson County is any different other than the fact he has probably lost less.

[ Parent ]
has probably lost some but much less than he has elsewhere and I will tell you why. The majority of the 56% were AA, and they have not left him and the other big chunk is lefty college students (U of L)and libs in general (there are a lot of them in Jeff Country) and the youth is still generally supportive. If I had to guess I would say it is between 50 to 54 percent. So possibly a tad high but probably not that bad.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]

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