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SSP Daily Digest: 8/12 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 8:06 AM EDT


  • AZ-Sen: The AP ran a story about J.D. Hayworth's recent criticisms of John McCain, featuring a provocative headline: "Hayworth suggests McCain would be worse than Obama." This caused Hayworth to flip the fuck out - and put him in the exquisitely agonizing situation of having to defend McCain. Talk about having your nuts squeezed!
  • CO-Sen: Some off-message messaging from Ken Buck, fresh off his primary win over Jane Norton: "I think Republicans realize that Republicans are every bit as much to blame for the mess that we are in in D.C. as the Democrats."
  • IN-Sen: Dick Lugar, 78 years young, indicated that he would likely seek re-election in 2012. In case you want to parse the tea leaves, his exact words were: "I suppose there will be a place and a time to do that, to rally the forces, to get the fundraisers going and all of that type of thing. But that's my intent day by day. Most people in the Senate know I will be around, therefore they have to deal with me on that basis."
  • KY-Sen: Do you ever feel like sometimes, life sounds just like an episode of Arrested Development?
  • Rand Paul Not a Kidnapper "In a Legal Sense," Accuser Says

    It was really just some light... abduction.

  • CO-Gov: Tom Tancredo is going nowhere! As in, he ain't quitting the race. If anything, he looks more set on staying in than ever, digging in his heels in response to GOP chair Dick Wadhams' broadsides. Said Wadhams: "Tom Tancredo makes it unwinnable if he remains a third-party candidate." Responded the Tanc: "I have a better chance of winning in a three-way race than Maes has in a two-way race."
  • FL-Gov: The Florida Independent, a member of the American Independent News Network, has a new investigative report about Rick Scott's current healthcare company. Rather than try to summarize, I'll just quote a bit:
  • Two doctors - both former employees of Solantic, the chain of clinics launched by Scott and in which he is a majority investor - allege that Solantic repeatedly used their name and medical license information without their permission or knowledge. Both doctors state that by allegedly misappropriating their information, the company was able to keep clinics operating in contravention of state law.

    One of the doctors asserts that he also came upon evidence of billing irregularities involving Medicare, which, if true, would be the second time a Scott-run company was accused of improperly billing Medicare.

  • ID-01: Walt Minnick keeps racking up support from the right (and sometimes far-right): the conservative "Council for Citizens Against Government Waste" just named Minnick as the lone Democratic "Taxpayer Hero" of 2009. Whatever it takes, huh?
  • NY-10: Kevin Powell, who lost badly to Rep. Ed Towns in a 2008 primary challenge and is trying again this year, put out a press release saying he beat back Towns' attempt to disqualify his petitions and remove him from the ballot. Towns is a terrible elected official and is definitely vulnerable - he won a primary in 1998 with just 52% and has been challenged many times. In a year like this, he could definitely go down, but I doubt Powell (who has no money) is the right guy to do it.
  • PA-10: Rep. Chris Carney is going up on the air with his first ads - and this time, there is word on the size of the buy. Carney's spending $60K, which may not sound like a lot, but this is a really cheap-ass media market. Carney also has a huge cash advantage over his GOP opponent, ex-US Attorney Tom Marino: $800K to 11K as of June 30th, though Marino claims he has more than five times that (WOW!) on hand now.
  • TN-06: On election night, the Republican primary in the 6th CD ended crazily close, with a 31-30-30 near-tie between three candidates. The last place dude, Jim Tracy, finally conceded and endorsed Diane Black, the first-place dude. The second place dude (and yes, at SSP, we use "dude" to refer to all genders), Lou Ann Zelenik, is still contesting the results.
  • VA-05: What a weiner! Challengers usually jump at the chance for debates with incumbents, endlessly wheedling and begging and cajoling for any opportunity to raise their profile. But in a bizarre role reversal, Republican Rob Hurt is refusing to debate Rep. Tom Perriello - all because indy teabagger Jeff Clark was also invited to participate. Perriello both goaded and bear-hugged Hurt, saying: "If you're too scared to make your case to the voters, then how easily are you going to get crushed up in Washington in terms of having any independence? It's an important part of the process and I hope Sen. Hurt will show up and try to make his case."
  • Teabaggers v. CoC: Sounds pretty dirty, doesn't it? Well, I won't tell you to get your mind out of the gutter, because that's where SSP's always is. Anyhow, the Huffington Post has a good rundown of the cycle-long war that's been waged between the Chamber of Commerce, which likes their wingnuts anti-tax but establish-minty, and the teabaggers, who like their wingnuts deep-fried and weapons-grade. So far, the baggers have had an edge in primaries, despite the Chamber's mighty resources. Loves it.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/12 (Morning Edition)
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    Glad to see
    that Ken Buck is quite able to formulate unusually sound (especially - for conservative Republican) idea...

    glad it not just me...
    but Buck's "gaffes" like the one above and the one about the birthers being "dumbasses" actually improve my opinion of him considerably.

    [ Parent ]
    Not so sure its a gaffe
    If Buck (who has been labeled the "tea party candidate") wants move to the center for the general election than statements like he just made "that Republicans are every bit as much to blame for the mess that we are in in D.C. as the Democrats" (along with calling birthers "dumbasses" is a good start.


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    [ Parent ]
    I think you may be right.
    a crafty one that Ken Buck.  Will be an interesting race to watch.

    [ Parent ]
    The fact that Powell is a tax deadbeat is the least of his problems..
    While Kevin Powell's failure failure to pay at least $615,000 in taxes might be one reason why he's not the right guy.

    To me the fact that he has a violent history of abusing women and getting into fights is way worst.

    As an FYI, Powell got expelled from Rutgers University for pulling a knife on a female student during anargument. Powell has admitted that he mentally and physically abused his ex-girlfriend and Powell got arrested in 2001 after hitting and smashing the glasses of a fellow writer. And as recently as 2004 Powell was accused of punching and biting a guy at a nightclub.

    So yea he's definetly the wrong guy to take out Towns.


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    [ Parent ]
    Something about paul is just so hilarious
    A unique campaign. I mean normally that's not the kind of headline a politician wants to see.  

    A New Ad From Sharron Angle

    I understand why this ad has elderly and middle-aged people in it, but why are they pretty much all Caucasians who look like they've been culled from the tea party?

    It doesn't seem to be any improvement off of her previous ads she has done with the town hall setting.

    Another think I noticed is that it accuses Reid of voting against protecting social security, but doesn't cite any votes or newspapers (which most ads do by posting a footnote on the same frame where they make the claim about the candidate).

    Finally, doesn't she know that "Lock Box" social security was part of the platform of Al Gore's 2000 Presidential race?

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    Like her previous ad
    The audience looks like a group of seniors from Nebraska who were roped into a presentation on Las Vegas time-shares!

    [ Parent ]
    Well Al Gore was right about the lockbox
    The point Al Gore was trying to make about the lockbox was the govt takes the excess Social Security money they collect in taxes and spends it immediately while placing an IOU for future generations.

    This is unlike normal pension plans where current contributions are invested to cover future payouts. I think that's the point Gore and Angle are trying to make.

    Also if Angle is trying to show voters she's not some extreme right winger echoing an Al Gore talking point is probably a good way to go to try and moderate her image.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    what surprises me is that
    didn't she used to talk about eliminating social security? Or privatizing it or something of that nature?

    [ Parent ]
    Keep in mind, Angle was a total wild card in the NV Assembly
    She would constantly vote against the state GOP's agenda, albeit typically b/c she didn't deem their legislation conservative-enough. Doesn't shock me to see her throwing some curveballs.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    NY-10
    I'm no great fan of Towns either, but I'm not voting for Powell who just doesn't seem very serious to me.

    Anyone know if Towns has plans to retire in the next cycle or two?  There is some promising young talent in the area--Hakeem Jeffries, Eric Adams, Daniel Squadron...


    Two Pro-Reid Ads Out.
    Here's one from the Reid campaign itself, which is getting rave reviews.

    The other ad is by Patriot Majority.



    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    Oops, mis-post. Here's the Patriot Majority Ad:


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Both are really good
    But especially the first one you posted, with the law enforcement official, might be the best ad I've seen this cycle.  And thank goodness Harry Reid has the money to run these as often as he needs to.

    [ Parent ]
    I dont know...
    I kind of think this is the best negative ad I saw this cycle:

    I know nothing about this race. I have no idea who Ken Hodges is but watching Kenneth Walker's mom talk I just feel so bad for her. This ad really hit me more than any I've ever seen. It's just brutal.

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    [ Parent ]
    A powerful ad, no doubt, but it didn't do the trick
    Hodges won the Dem primary by a 2-1 margin.

    [ Parent ]
    Calling out Angle
    I loved the first ad. Candidates need to be held accountable for the things they said on the campaign trail. Comments about insurrections or succession should not go overlooked; simply having these ideas thrown out there gives them validity.
    I'm glad Reid took Angle to task, though I'd have loved the guy in the ad to say, "I'm a member of the NRA and a Republican, BUT I'M VOTING FOR HARRY REID because Sharron Angle is too extreme."  

    [ Parent ]
    Both those ads are brutal
    I hope they are running all over the place. What I'm wondering now is how much longer Rove is going to be gunning for her. How much money is he seriously going to use his pac to blow on her?

    [ Parent ]
    He still thinks Reid is vulnerable
    Sometimes, somebody can be so "anti" something that they don't realize what they're getting on the other end.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    I like both of those ads
    They hit her hard with her own words.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not suprised about Dick Lugar
    I was never one who thought he would retire.  He likes being in the Senate, is healthy and looks younger than 78, and I don't think he's going anywhere.  Democrats will not put up a top-tier challenger (and in fact last time didn't run anyone at all).  However, I do think he'll be teabagged.  I think Lugar is probably more popular among moderate Democrats in Indiana than he is among hard-core conservatives -- and his votes to confirm President Obama's two supreme court justices just added fuel to their fire.

    If only every Republican were like
    Dick Lugar...I like him far more than Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins and Scott Brown put together, because unlike them, he doesn't pretend to be a moderate, he never pretends to be anything other than a conservative, but he's intelligent and reasonable Senator.

    I just saw Scott Brown's CoH total...brutal. Unfortunately I think Democrats will be stuck with Martin Meehan in 2012, who, while not that great a Democrat, has loads of money left over, is a good fundraiser, and has a fairly good base and profile to take down Brown.  


    [ Parent ]
    I never figured out why Meehan passed last year
    He's wanted to be in the Senate for a long time, and seems like an obvious pick in 2012. However, Mike Capuano will probably be back, and we could see Ed Markey jump in too. That would be one heck of a September primary fight.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Capuano would have to give up his house seat...
    ...in order to face the very formidable Brown.  Brown will be very tough to beat, no matter what anyone says.  His good looks and charm alone net him an extra ten points.  He'll have a lot of money, although, I doubt the teabaggers will work the extra mile for him this time.

    [ Parent ]
    I think you are overstating Brown's strength.
    Yes, Dems can't take the race for granted, but this is Massachusetts and any decent Democrat (like Capuano) would be 50/50 at worst vs Brown. Especially in a presidential year with Obama on the ticket greatly increasing turnout. And even considering Brown's money (he will need every cent of it to fight against the headwind he would face).

    Brown voting record isn't centrist enough for him to be the definite favorite like the ladies in Maine are, but it is moderate enough for him not to be an underdog.


    [ Parent ]
    Meehan passed
    because Coakley came from the same area as him, Middlesex County, and Capuano was also already running as the "liberal" candidate. I don't think he saw much space to win with the non-Boston vote already split in the Democratic primary but left the door open for future races. Now I don't see how he could pass up the wide open door in 2012 and get in early and try to get liberal support, establishment support, plus labor and sort of flank Capuano early.  

    [ Parent ]
    Not from the same area
    Coakley lives in Medford, which is more or less considered an inner ring suburb of Boston, while Meehan is from Lowell which is definitely considered distinct. Besides, Coakley's base is more in the Berkshires (she grew up in North Adams).

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    She was Middlesex
    DA though, prior to be electing Attorney General, so she's definitely a Middlesex politician, just like Meehan.  

    [ Parent ]
    Not really...
    people don't think in terms of counties here, aside from things like DA and sheriff which are elected countywide, but no one from here would consider a Medford politician and a Lowell politician to share a base, no way no how. I think Coakley may have briefly worked in Lowell but not enough to establish political roots there. I think she is first and foremost a North Adams politician and then a Medford politician.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    ^This
    Lowell is a world away from Medford. Meehan represented the Merrimack Valley and the outer MetroWest suburbs of Boston, he would have cleaned up this area in the primary. Coakley is from the part of Middlesex just outside Boston, but she fought for this turf with Capuano and ran up her biggest margins in Western MA, where she is originally from.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Im hoping
    For a Coakley-Brown rematch!  

    [ Parent ]
    Hell no
    Massachusetts deserves Senator Centerfold for another 6 years in that case if they let Coakley take another crack at Brown.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Okay
    as long as we can have a 2012 Obama-Keyes rematch.

    [ Parent ]
    That
    Was just for a senate race, not for the presidency ;)  

    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough
    Obama-McCain 2 and we have a deal!

    [ Parent ]
    Screw it
    Just give us Capuano.

    [ Parent ]
    Wonder if McGovern would run...
    he seems pretty inoffensive and unlike Capuano his district isn't automatically an 80% Dem district.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Hmm….
    To be honest I expect him to retire. I would love for him to run and I would probably vote for him even if we did nominate a credible candidate but I do not think he can make it through a Republican primary and he is much too conservative to become a dem. He could go indy but I think he would want to leave with dignity and I do not think he wants to leaves his party either. He may win as an indy, especially if we nominate no one and I am sure we would under those circumstances but like I said I just do not think he would want to do it. Do you want to hear a juicy bit of gossip? Stutzman really wants to be in the Senate and word on the street is he is thinking of 2012. I hope I am wrong and have Lugar another term, he is a great man and Senator.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    would he leave
    the House after just one term?  

    [ Parent ]
    Slightly unrelated SSP stuff
    But Basil Marceaux's national approval is 3/16, including 4% of Obama voters.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Someone at PPP must have had a field day
    including that question in the poll.

    ...no pun intended.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    [ Parent ]
    They're doing it wrong
    Marceaux's numbers would be considerably better if his full name had been included.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    You mean
    Basil Marceaux Dot Com?

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Indeed.


    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    FL-Gov
    Mason-Dixon have Sink ahead of both Republicans and McCollum now leads Scott.

    http://blogs.orlandosentinel.c...


    Should I discount this poll?
    Because I REALLY want to, but somehow....I feel like Quinn is bleeding support.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    IL-Gov
    For what its worth, the Gubernatorial campaign in Illinois has not really begun in earnest yet. I have seen few ads from either side. I believe Quinn will definitely gain ground once he starts to air ads in the Chicago market underlining how conservative Brady really is. The bigger question is if he can get people to vote FOR him rather than just against Brady.  

    [ Parent ]
    But will it matter?

    Illinois has done all-Democratic state government for a couple of years now and it's probably had enough of the current crew.  

    They've stopped paying the bills- that seems to me the paramount fact in the state.  About the only thing people can do about that is voting in a Republican governor.

    At a minimum that will make both Parties responsible for the problem.  And whichever one behaves worse gets killed in the next election.  Hearing what I do about the state parties, I'm not sure either would be mourned.  There might even be hopes of getting a twofer.  


    [ Parent ]
    that's not true...
    if people want to send a message about divided government they could easily vote in a non-crazy like Judy Baar Topinka for state comptroller. Or if that was too low profile they could vote for Mark Kirk who is a douchebag but not a wingnut. But sending a message about divided government by voting in wacko Bill Brady? If Brady wins it won't be for that reason.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Quinn's...
    ...already up in the Chicago market. The ad isn't very good, but you see it a reasonable amount. Haven't seen any Brady ads yet (and the Chicago market covers so much of the state's population, you'd think he'd need to do SOMETHING on it). I'd still discount this poll (13 points?), but ads are already up.

    But I think Brady has a very excellent chance. Voters need to punish SOMEONE in the state government heirarchy, and I think the revelations about Kirk have made them uncomfortable doing it to Giannoulias. So Quinn will probably take most of the anger, mostly for being handed a shitty situation.

    That being said, most of the political coverage here has been focused on the Senate race and the Blago trial. Once we focus on the governor's mansion, the ground may shift.


    [ Parent ]
    You should...
    no doubt Brady is ahead right now (though that could change too), but there is no way a nut like him is ahead by double digits in solidly Democratic Illinois. Even if he were a nut from the suburbs I'd be skeptical, let alone a nut from downstate (which gives you no advantage because downstate is Republican already). This is a junk poll along the lines of their Rand Paul +25 poll back in May.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Russ Feingold's ad


    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    Feingold succeeds at looking like a regular Joe
    He looks the same as the parade of average people before him, and it's not until he says "I'm Russ Feingold....." that I realize that this is the Senator himself and not another citizen singing his praise. Good ad.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    I know
    If I saw him at the grocery store dressed like that I would never be able to tell he was a Senator.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    I remember reading an article about the Senate's wealth a while back
    Feingold is one of the least wealthy Senators. I believe the article said his only assets were his house in Wisconsin (which had a mortgage on it) and a late-90s Buick Park Avenue that he shared with his wife.

    [ Parent ]
    In all fairness to Tancredo...
    Unless the GOP can arm-twist Maes off the ballot, they probably are better off with a three-way where Tancredo will become the de-facto Republican, a-la Doug Hoffman.

    They're still screwed, of course ;)

    27, Democratic, IL-01


    But Maes isn't like Scozzafava
    He actually says what the base wants to hear.

    Well, part of it, at least.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    [ Parent ]
    NO!
    Tancredo's gonna poison the whole well for the GOP in CO this year.

    The Governorship is gone this year, I accept that, but we still have a great shot at the senate seat (even with the Third Horseman) and 3 House seats.
    Tancredo will kill us with Hispanics and moderates.

     


    [ Parent ]
    My reactions to the news
    Ken Buck, CO-Sen: http://static.tvtropes.org/pmw...

    Rand Paul, KY-Sen: http://www.court-records.net/a...

    Walt Minnick, ID-01: (to the Republicans) http://nelsonhaha.com/

    (If any of these links don't work, just copy/paste re-enter the link.)

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    Colorado turnout
    Have to post this addendum to a comment I made on another thread. I speculated that it might not be a good sign for Democrats in Colorado that turnout was higher for Republicans. As it turns out, not only has that been true for the past decade but the difference in turnout is actually getting smaller. This is from Sean Treadle at Real Clear Politics:

    "It is true that more Republicans voted in Colorado than Democrats. But that has always been the case in Colorado this decade. In 2002, 189,998 Republicans voted while only 104,603 Democrats voted (both parties had uncontested primaries), a ratio of 1.8 Republicans for every Democrat. In 2004 the ratio of Republicans to Democrats was 1.4, in 2006 it was 1.35 and in 2008 it was 1.23. Last night it was down again, to 1.20."

    So this might be a good sign for Dems come November.  


    Excellent info, sounds like many R cross-overs
    More difficult question is how many are people who've officially converted, and how many are waiting and hoping for a moderate R candidate.

    But the bottom line is still the same, CO is trending in a hopeful direction.


    [ Parent ]
    Hoping for a moderate R candidate
    That would assume Maes would drop out for anything...and I'd bet a damn lot of money he's in this thing for the long haul.  Bottom line: Not gonna happen.  Besides, save State Rep. Ellen Roberts of Durango and, maybe, State Sen. Al White (formerly Winter Park, now of Hayden), there are no more GOP moderates in Colorado.

    30, male, Democratic, CO-01

    [ Parent ]

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