Google Ads


Site Stats

CO, CT, GA & MN Primary Results Thread

by: James L.

Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 7:01 PM EDT


9:01pm: Now that MN and CO are closed, let's move this party over here.
8:55pm: 64% in, and Deal leads by 212,126 to 201,445.
8:50pm: Fulton County fans should know that they have their own results website, featuring a mind-bogglingly annoying auto-scroll feature. Enjoy!
8:47pm: So we're up to 61% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 194,074 to 185,254.
8:44pm: Back in Connecticut, Malloy leads Lamont by 57-43 with about 10% in. Foley is up on Fedele by 46-45. Janet Peckinpaugh leads Daria Novak by 43-37 in the 2nd, and Caligiuri leads Greenberg by only 35-33 in the 5th.
8:37pm: 54% reporting in GA, and Deal's lead has closed to 168,784-162,623.
8:26pm: We're now at 43% reporting in Georgia, and Deal now leads Handel by 123,489 votes to 114,045. Deal's keeping his 4% lead steady.
8:21pm: Over in the Nutmeg state, Foley leads Fedele by 46-34 with 2% of town precincts reporting. Malloy is up by 56-44 over Lamont, and McMahon has a 48-27-25 lead over Simmons and Schiff. In the 5th CD, Sam Caligiuri has a 36-32-32 lead over businessman Mark Greenberg and Afganistan vet Justin Bernier.
8:18pm: We're up to 34% reporting in GA, and Nathaniel Deal is holding onto a 83,957-77,554 lead.
8:10pm: Deal is now leading by a full 4%, 72,107 to 66,595, with 31% reporting. Handel's even losing Gwinnett County narrowly to Deal, which she won by a large spread back in July.
8:09pm: If you'd like to compare tonight's results to the first round of voting, check out this handy table of county results.
8:05pm: Again, this seems to be a rare night where the Associated Press (and, therefore, the Politico) are getting lapped by the Georgia SoS. With 28% in, Deal now leads by 56,437-53,131 (3%).
8:03pm: So back to GA: Deal now sports a 48,814-46,354 lead over Handel with 26% in.
8:02pm: Polls have now closed in Connecticut.
7:57pm: Look out! Deal just took a 0.6% lead, according to the SoS. 24% of precincts are now reporting.
7:53pm: The crew over at SSP Labs is still setting up the mainframe, but we should get some projections to you once the boys in the long white coats are good and ready.
7:52pm: Deal's now pulled even (according to the SoS office), trailing Handel by just over 40 votes, 24,739-24,693. 18% reporting.
7:48pm: In the House races, Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice by 10% in GA-07, incumbent Tom Graves leads Screamin' Lee Hawkins by 14% in GA-09, and Ray McKinney leads Carl Smith 10% in GA-12. Oh, and Deborah Honeycutt is getting thrashed by Mike Crane in the 13th.
7:46pm: Handel now leads by just under 1000 votes (2.6%) with 15% of precincts reporting.
7:35pm: It's now 9,630 Handel, 8,899 Deal (a 4% lead) with 9% of precincts reporting, according to the SoS. Only 1% of e-day votes have been counted so far, though.
7:20pm: We're up to 3% reporting (according to the SoS office), and Handel's lead over Deal is now 2,240-2,052 (that's 52%-48%).
7:13pm: The GA SoS has our first taste of results for the night, with Handel leading Deal by a mere 28 votes.

Polls have now closed in Georgia, and SSP Headline News will be using this thread to follow the returns. Connecticut closes at 8pm Eastern and Minnesota and Colorado close at 9pm Eastern. We'll touch base with those states later.

RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico
James L. :: CO, CT, GA & MN Primary Results Thread
Tags: , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

CO, CT, GA & MN Primary Results Thread | 178 comments
Deal and Hendel are currently tied
with 0% of Precincts reporting. This race looks like it'll go down to the wire. Haha.
WOW
that's close(seriously though, i think deal pulls out a squeker)
[ Parent ]
i want colorado results first
oh well.........
There's no telling whether Colorado will be decided tonight
as most of the counties are conducting the primary by mail.
[ Parent ]
I assume that means...
they will accept all ballots postmarked by today?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
yep
i know PLUS the races will most likely be very close(i hope mccinnis goes down which will assure us that hickenlooper wins in nov; maes has said he won't stand down if he wins tonight)
[ Parent ]
I thought I read...
... all ballots had to be in by 7:00 tonight.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Colorado Ballots
alos can be dropped off at designated locations.  

I'm curious to see how Colorado does this.  Here in California, mailed ballots received before election day are counted "instantly" once the polls close.    

[ Parent ]
Uh, time zones

[ Parent ]
duh
i know that; i am just more interested in those races in CO(which i expect all will be too close to call tonight)
[ Parent ]
A better politico
link might be http://www.politico.com/2010/m...

but it really doesn't matter.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Thanks
I had meant to link to that!
[ Parent ]
ah, Politico...
providing me with my daily dose of map. love it. and can't wait for the general election when the damn maps will be color-coded.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Handel takes the lead with just the early votes of Troup County reporting
278 - 247

She won the county in round one 1,167 - 864 out of a total of 3,931

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

I'm not good at mental arithmetic...
but that's a lower % for her right? (especially assuming that election-day votes will be friendlier to Deal.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Troup is one of the counties
Barnes really needs to win in November.  
[ Parent ]
also
are these really early votes? Politico says 63% reporting.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Chandler county early votes reporting now
Handel wins those 67-65.  
[ Parent ]
Deal beat Handel by 3 votes in Candler County
in July. so this margin tells us very little.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I got it from the Georgia SoS
Who says 66% reporting

They got that number because all of the early votes by mail (33%) and early votes in person (33%) have been counted.  Presumably those three categories don't actually represent 2/3rds of the total votes.  

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Use politico
I like their interactive map.  
[ Parent ]
Minnesota results may be slower than in the past
After the polls close in a couple hours vote totals may be a little slower to come in in Minnesota than in the past. After the Franken/Coleman affair they have changed the way absentee ballots are handled, this could slow things down especially in larger counties.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
will we receive raw vote?
in a timely manner? from the precincts; do you know?(seems like we are in for a long night)
[ Parent ]
Early votes in in small Candler County
Handel leads 51-49 but it's only a two vote difference.  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
More coming in from Clinch and Glasscock
county. She gains 22 votes.  
[ Parent ]
Handel barely winning in Clinch
she placed 2nd there last time but Deal was 4th. If Clinch remains tied then it's a sign Deal got more Johnson/Ox voters than she did. Then again, given how far ahead Handel finished, she can underperform a bit in counties like Clinch and still clinch (sorry!) victory.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Turnout looks really low in
these rural areas. Bodes poorly for Deal.  
[ Parent ]
Deal's base is in North GA
n/t

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Still, he'll need to
win these rural Southern Georgia counties too to over come Handel in Atlanta metro.  
[ Parent ]
he will do ok in some parts of metro
i think he will perform pretty well in the outer perimeter(huge amount of far right suburbanites in those counties)
[ Parent ]
Handel is running as a fringe right
conservative, campaigning on getting rid of the state income tax and wielding endorsements from Mama Palin.  
[ Parent ]
It would be
nice to hand Erick Erickson another loss :P

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
deal is running even further right
than her
[ Parent ]
Not on the state income tax
Just on immigration and social issues.  
[ Parent ]
also
watch cobb and gwinnett; if handel does not mop up there, she is not going to win
[ Parent ]
Cobb and Fulton,
Gwinett will be tied, and Deal will probably win Forsyth and Cherokee.  
[ Parent ]
looks like low turnout so far
that might help deal
[ Parent ]
Deal is winning early in Gwinnet
yet getting Crushed in Cherokee, a portion of which he represents. Surprise surprise.
[ Parent ]
yep
this is going the distance(long night awaits us)
[ Parent ]
i called it early and correctly
deal wins in a squeker
[ Parent ]
Turnout numbers are deceptive
Those are early votes only, even if it says 33% or 66% reporting.

See my explanation above

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
MN SoS
Here is the link for the MN SoS election results. It wasn't in the place where they put all the past election results.

http://electionresults.sos.sta...

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

Thanks!

[ Parent ]
No problem!


21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
North Georgia
starts coming in

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Deal crushes her
in Walker county's early votes, but right now it looks like she is somehow narrowly ahead in neighboring Whitfield county. If that holds it really doesn't look good for Deal.  
[ Parent ]
i was just going to point out
whitfield. if he can't win that, he's going down big.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
GA-12: very early results
McKinney is winning 3-1.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
GA-09
Graves heading for victory #4, 62-38.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Early votes in
Central Georgia. Handel winning there easily. Also winning Newton County's early votes handily. I'm almost not sure if, after hearing all I've heard about her the past few days, Handel isn't the best GOPer for Barnes to face.  
Its like Handel is
starting off strong in the early votes, and then her margin slides as more Election day votes come in. I wonder why she's stronger among the early voters?
Politico has the same result James,
but they are saying .2% of precincts reporting.  
Rooting for Woodall in GA-07
Sure, he's undoubtedly a down-the-line conservative, but at least we wouldn't have another Michele Bachmann in the House.
She's now thrashing deal
in Glasscock, while he's only barely squeaking out a 51% margin in Whitfield, with 40% of the vote in. That's part of his base. If he doesn't do better than that he's toast. Plus the early voting numbers almost everywhere are terrible for him.  
Deal had late momentum
It's entirely possible that Handel's early vote is stronger than her in-person vote.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
he's got a weak showing going on
in Northeastern GA. Specially in Catoosa and Whitfield.  
[ Parent ]
northwestern


18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
sorry. I'm a blond.

[ Parent ]
Ladies and gentlemen, our first fully reported county!
(Glascock in east-central GA)

Handel wins 70-30. she picked up 29 votes vis-a-vis her July performance, Deal picked up 27. Little change. Bad sign for Deal, he needs change.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

he he... Glascock...


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Politico's
% precincts in is an error.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Now Deal seems to be doing better in South
Georgia, but the problem remains that his showing in north Georgia is spotty at best.

However he is still narrowly winning Gwennett with 7.7 percent of precincts reporting. That could keep him afloat despite weaker than expected showings elsewhere.

One thing I'm noticing is that Handel is doing absurdly strong in some heavily black areas. Do you think Democrats are voting for Handel now because they think she'll be the easiest to beat?

I don't think you can vote in the runoff
unless you voted for republicans in the primary (might be wrong).

And I would think that Deal would be the easier to beat with the corruption charges.  

[ Parent ]
Those really aren't as
damaging as we've made them out to be here, so I wonder.  
[ Parent ]
Keep an eye on the Attorney General race
It's the same dynamic is the Republican Gubernatorial Runoff: very conservative Republican from non-Metro North Georgia (Preston Smith) versus a Metro Republican who's had to verify his conservative credentials (Sam Olens).  Olens winning might be problematic as he's the Commission Chair of Cobb County, Barnes' home county and a county that Barnes will have to do well in.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Which one gives Democrats a better
shot at holding the seat? (I always feel SSP should keep a bigger eye out on these lesser statewide elections, because they are crucial too).
[ Parent ]
Smith
He comes from an area of the state that will go Republican anyways.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Look at the Public Service Commission Runoff, too
Same thing.  John Douglas is a State Senator who represents part are all of several critical counties in the Southeastern side of Metro Atlanta: Henry, Rockdale, and Newton.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Oop hit "post" too soon.
The other guy is a wingnut from an area that'll go Republican anyways.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Deal seems to be slowly gaining momentum
He's widled Handel's margin down to 3%, election day voters tend to be more favorable to him than early votes.

I assume that Handel will make gains towards the end when the Atlanta area counties start coming in, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see Deal take the lead narrowly but lose in the end.

Deal is winning
Putnam, Morgan, and Gwennett in the metro area.  
[ Parent ]
Two
more counties (Pulaski, Taliaferro) fully reported for Deal

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Wow.
A total of ten votes cast in Taliaferro county. Deal got 80% of the vote and gained 6 on Handel.  
[ Parent ]
Turnout
in Taliaferro was like 1%!

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Taliaferro...
8 votes deal, 2 votes Handel

Quit the turnout.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Pulaski
Deal placed in 4th there in July, Handel in 3rd. He gained 194 votes, she gained 70.

Taliaferro: Heavily black county, only cast 10 votes in GOP runoff. Handel actually bled votes here, going from an 8-5 advantage to an 8-2 deficit. Of course with so few votes, if this were a poll it'd have an MoE resembling summer temperatures in Georgia.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
lol

[ Parent ]
Deal also narrowly won Candler
he gained 133, she gained 112. he definitely won most Johnson/Ox supporters, the question is did he win 55% of them or did he win 75% of them. that will make the difference.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Bleckley County looks good though
Deal finished fourth there but won it this time, gained 176 to her 53. can't wait to hear what SSP Labs has to say on this one.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Almost 20% of Gwinnett
in, and Deal is still narrowly ahead there. Handel seems to be doing best in the more moderate areas of the state, which makes me a little afraid of Barnes's chances if she is the GOP candidate, even though she is running a really right wing campaign.  
Fulton County
Can the Johnson endorsement help Deal pull close in Fulton?
Eric Johnson is from
Southeastern Georgia. How would he help Deal in Fulton county?
[ Parent ]
Johnson came in 2nd in a lot of places Handel won
Including Fulton, Cobb and Dekalb, the three biggest vote totals in the July primary.  Johnson also came in a narrow 3rd in Gwinnett.

So Johnson's endorsement could help in Handel's strongholds.

[ Parent ]
What?
Johnson never endorsed Deal. That was all speculation.
[ Parent ]
Speculation is enough
Kingston said it, newspapers printed it, etc.  Its not like the majority of people needed to see Johnson and Deal on stage together.

Plus

[ Parent ]
Um
Johnson made a robocall calling for unity, without mentioning any candidate. If that's not enough to show that he did not openly support Deal, then I do not know what to say.

Also, while we're at it, please point me to a newspaper that specifically stated that Johnson endorsed Deal over Handel.

Johnson liked something on Facebook. Most people might not even know about Facebook.

[ Parent ]
People don't know about FB?
that's creepy, it's like traveling back to the past or something.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The results are getting closer
24,082 51% Handel
23,138 49% Deal
5.6% precincts reporting

Pulaski and Cander are now fully reporting. Deal is winning Pulaski County 54.6%-45.4% with 253 votes to 210. Deal is also winning Bulloch County 323 to 300 votes with 51.4% of the vote. Deal seems to be pulling narrow leads out of these counties and if he can keep them, he will win.

Another note: counties in Deal's district that have reported early votes are giving Deal small margins but counties like White County in Deal's district that have reported are breaking strongly for him.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

GA SoS
way different than politico's map, a lot more in there.  
[ Parent ]
Deal leads!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Handel may be in trouble
The vote total is getting narrower

Handel
31,153 50.5%
Deal
30,540 49.5%

She seems to be doing well in the Atlanta area but is not doing too well in southern Georgia. While she should make up ground when the Atlanta area reports, she should lose it as votes from election day report which should favor Deal.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

She's trailing by three points now
The SoS has more up-to-date numbers.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I should probably
 Stay away from politico then.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I'm content to be a little behind
if it means I get my pretty map.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
lol
me too.
[ Parent ]
I know what you mean
 Looking at that long list of Georgia's 159 counties is hard to do. You can't really see what is reporting unless you keep scrolling around. The map is so easy though. I just wish they would color code it.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I miss the color-coded maps
of the 2008 primaries :(

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
almost 4 points
with 30% in.

Oh, and wanna make a bet Rasmussen rushes out with a post-primary poll giving Deal a triple digit lead of Former Governor Roy Barnes?

[ Parent ]
Heh
Deal 500%
Barnes: -32% :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Yep
Along with crosstabs showing Deal winning in the 4th Congressional district, which only went like 70% for Obama.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
according to GA SoS
Deal leads by 3 points, with 28% of the vote in

     Deal 56,437   51.5%
        Handel 53,135 48.5%
 

[ Parent ]
Now Deal is doing even better
Deal

67,233

Handel

62,295

51.9%  48.1%  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
But 0% reported in Fulton
I think Deal needs to have a bigger margin than that to win.  But I like the trend.

Especially liking the trend in Cobb; in July Handel doubled up Deal, now she's only up by less than 10% (I'm guessing).  Still early in the night with only 7% reported, but that would be fantastic.

[ Parent ]
The Cobb trend
is also appearing in Gwinnett.  If Deal can keep these even he can win this thing, and by a decent amount depending on Fulton turnout.
[ Parent ]
even 4% points now
according to GA SoS, with 31% in.  
[ Parent ]
33% in
and margin is still holding.  
[ Parent ]
Just need to see more from Cobb, Gwinnett and Chatham
Deal might be able to build up a big enough margin to declare victory before Fulton finishes reporting, which would be hillarious.

6,200 votes and counting.  Handel won Fulton by (only) 22,000 in July.  I know I'm dreaming, leave me be.

[ Parent ]
I reckon with lower turnout
she should be able to only count on maybe a 15,000 vote pad in Fulton. Likely closer to 11,000.
[ Parent ]
I would bet even lower
She won Fulton with about 55-60% of the vote, but Deal got only 12%.

Turnout alone could cost her 5,000-10,000 vote margin, but picking up Johnson supporters and the straggling Oxendine voter could help her.  I just don't see how she could pick up Johnson or Oxendine voters in Fulton.

I could see her ending up winning Fulton by under 10,000

[ Parent ]
right now
she's set to do it, already got a 3000 vote margin and winning 70-30 there.  
[ Parent ]
34%
still holding at 52-48
[ Parent ]
Handel's losing in both Gwinnett and Forsyth
That's really bad news for her, as she really needs to do well in the Atlanta area to win.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Forsyth isn't too surprising.
Deal represented most of it in Congress.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, her real strengeth is
in Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb, etc. Deal is strong in a northearstern slice of the Atlanta suburbs.
[ Parent ]
The Gwinnett margin
Is fantastic for Deal so far thought, right?

Cobb and Gwinnett look real good so far for deal.  

It will be very interesting to see where Chatham goes.  Johnson won there (I'm guessing his home county) and there could be a decent margin there for whomever picks up Johnson's votes.

[ Parent ]
Winning Gwinnett is huge unexpected or not.
It's Georgia's second-largest county.  Interestingly, it borders both Handel's home county (Fulton) and Deal's home county (Hall).  And yes, Chatham is Johnson's home county.  Savannah is there.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Why is Handel winning Chatham
I actually expected Deal to be able to pull that one out.  Any idea of the political makeup?
[ Parent ]
Deal did very poorly there.
Finished fourth.  Handel more than doubled his vote total.  So, Deal has a lot of ground to make up there.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm not concerned about Deal or Handel's July totals
Where do Johnson's 12,000 July votes in that county go?
[ Parent ]
My point was...
If Deal started out with 4.4% and Handel had 14%, Deal will have to pull in far more voters from the other campaigns than Handel would have to.  So, it seems like he hasn't been able to pull in enough, Johnson support (or quasi-support or not).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
interesting.
Handel's winning there so far.  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I think Forsyth is Deal country?
I think it's in GA-06 but even so it's the type of uber-conservative exurb that can also be found in Deal's district.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm surprised he's not doing better
in Cherokee.  
[ Parent ]
No, most of Forsyth is in GA-09 (Deal's old district)
Although some is in GA-07.  GA-06 is all of Cherokee, North Fulton, North DeKalb, and East Cobb.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Ah
I got it confused with Cherokee.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
in her
few strong rural counties Handel is getting pwned by turnout. Look at Clay County where Deal only lost 7 votes but Handel lost 26.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Bummer that
Politico is showing the county maps for Connecticut, when we all know the counties in CT are useless. At least the AP is showing the town totals, though.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
Yeah, that's annoying...
can someone please tell Politico that towns are more important in New England? I wish we had a map like the Boston Globe made for MA-Sen, that was a truly great map although it was messed up at first.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Malloy
up 56-44 over Lamont

first few precincts in

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Also
 Turnout does not seem too good for Handel in DeKalb County. The GA SoS said that the vote total was 467 Handel 267 Deal with 33% in. I know DeKalb is an extremely Democratic county buth the turnout still seems low. Is that a leading indicator for Fulton which casts 2 times as many Republican votes in 2008 than DeKalb?

In 2008, Fulton cast 7% of McCain's vote in Georgia. If the turnout there is not higher today and Deal has a large margin out of the rural areas, Handel will be in trouble.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Politico says
that's with 1% in. Handel should hope Politico is right but I think I'd trust the SoS over them.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Wow
Politico has it 467-267 with 1% in

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I guess the early votes were not in yet
 The vote totals there are now 706 Deal 1,111 Handel.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Dekalb
Has to be an error, to be honest maybe it has something to do with the early votes being counted, and that being assumed to be 33%.  Or maybe the precincts reported are VERY small.  

There's just no way it ends up being this bad of a turnout there.  That would workout to 100% turnout being like 2,000 votes, total.

[ Parent ]
Those are early votes
Georgia SoS is doing percent reporting in an odd way

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Handel's dominating
in the Richmond area but she did so in July too. it's looking like Fulton could be the last best hope of Karen Handel.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
GA-GOV
I'm not really sure who to root for in terms of who would be better to face in the general. Is there some general consensus that I haven't noticed? Thanks!

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
Sentiment seems to be Karen Handel is the stronger nominee


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Both candidates are quite weak
I almost want to face Handel, because she would do so poorly with rural voters and has had trouble raising money.  
[ Parent ]
lol, Fulton's started
and the race tightens back to 2 percentage points, 51-49, as Handel pulls a ridiculously large margin off in the first batch of votes there. Looks like 70-30.  
It could be high turnout
 Or the early votes are coming in too.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
The early voting/vote by mail numbers
Are 37% in compared to 34% with election day voting. The vote count here should favor Handel but it does not seem to be.

Fulton County is coming now!

It brought a 4 point Deal lead down to 2.4. Vote totals are 1,629 D 4,196 H. 3% in



for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

interesting i guess
Simmons is winning the first votes counted (absentees I guess?) in small towns that are part of CT-02. I don't think there's enough Republicans in CT-02 to make the senate race interesting at all though

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
Vote totals now
Deal

92,834

Handel
88,625
Totals

   51.2%  48.8%

36% reporting

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

2% of CT reporting...
Skimming over things, county-by-county, it looks to me like there's a decent chance Peter Schiff actually defeats Rob Simmons for second place.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Now that Conneticut
 Is reporting too, I have decided that a pretty map for two states that I can navigate between easily is more important than results that Politico will show five minutes later.

I am with Politico now.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Don't focus on percentages
I'll preach it all night, the longer Deal leads by 3-5% the bigger the vote totals will be to overcome.  

The % may have gone down, but its still 6,200 votes.

almsot 40% and its ecking
back up to a 52-48 Deal lead, though Fulton hasn't released the next batch of votes. the first I think were early votes, which have consistently been more pro-Handel than election day, so she might not make gains so large next time.
[ Parent ]
43%
and we're back to a 52-48 race. No more from Fulton yet, but Deal's got almost 10,000 votes on her so far.
[ Parent ]
I think
of his four campaigns, this is the longest Hawkins has gone without getting the AP to call his loss. Of course he's still getting his ass whooped and probably going to lose.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Deal has a 11 1/2 thousand votes
on Handel with almost 50% in. The hole is quickly getting too deep, though I reckon she can catch up with the rest of Fulton county. She can't keep losing elsewhere though.
Fulton bails out Handel again
another bit comes in and she gains another 4,000 votes. 51-49 again statewide. She's getting and absurdly large, almost 75-25 margin out of populous Fulton.  
Impossible to make a Fulton prediction
11,000 votes and so-called 8% reporting.  That equates to about 130,000 votes total,a nd the July primary Fulton only had 42,000.

Turnout of around the July number and Deal wins this easily.  Better than July and it starts to tighten.  I still don't see how Handel can win Fulton by the 15,000 or so it appears she will need.  Unless she really spiked turnout in Fulton.

Reporting
8% of the precincts have reported. Some precincts can, and are, much smaller or larger than others.

Most areas also group early voting numbers into one precinct, so it's possible most of the early votes have come in.

[ Parent ]
I understand
Its just weird that Fulton still hasn't leveled out like most of the other counties.
[ Parent ]
well Deal is still 9000 votes up
just gained a few. 51-49.  
[ Parent ]
I think Deal wins
I just thought it would be easier.  I never thought it would be 70-30 in Fulton.  I thought for sure some Handel supporters would stay home, and was hopeful that most Johnson/Oxendine voters would do the same.
[ Parent ]
it's almost closed to 75-25
I can't believe she's winning it 3:1. Deal got maybe half of the non-Handel supporters from the last round here, the other half decided to join her.  
[ Parent ]
I did not expect that
Did anyone.  Did she manufacture people in Fulton?  I find it crazy that she's become more "popular" there.

The Fulton numbers also supposedly don't include the early voting, which could favor her even more.

Crazy.  Deal needs to build that margin to 15,000+ to fend that off.

[ Parent ]
I think Deal will win this
Handel will get a boost when Fulton comes in, but I don't think it will be enough.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Handel is also doing well
in cities outside of Atlanta. She's winning Macon, Augusta, Savannah. My guess is she'll also win Columbus when it starts reporting.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
which is my worry for the general
that she can do well enough in the cities to offset her weakness in the rural areas. Especially worrying is that Barnes' strategy seems to be to spend most of his time working over rural voters and campaigning for their votes, rather than working cities like Savannah, Macon, and suburban areas like Douglas, Rockdale, Cobb, Newton, etc, (even though he's from Cobb).

In my opinion in November Barnes needs close to 70% in Fulton County, plus 80+ percent in both Clayton and DeKalb while keeping Gwinnett to single digits and narrowly winning, (or losing), Cobb County, and also winning Douglas, Newton Rockdale, and Henry counties.  

[ Parent ]
Cobb is turning on us
Handel is now up 4,000 votes there, as opposed to beating Deal by 12,000+ in July.  I was hoping Deal could keep Cobb even, like Gwinnett had been.

Oh well, I'm being too optimistic.

Ba-haha
Over in State House District 75, Shawn James is getting annihilated.  This guy ran for this seat in last year's special election as a Republican, filed for the general this year as a Republican, has been endorsed by the NRA and Georgia Right to Life (IIRC).  Now, he's calling himself a conservative Democrat.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Will Democrats hold it
if they primary him? But you know he's probably no more conservative than many other Georgia Democrats. There used to be a lot like him.
[ Parent ]
It's an indigo district


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
A what?

[ Parent ]
Indigo is the deepest shade of blue


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Which is likely why James switched
He knew he couldn't win here is a Republican.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Oh,
I misread your originally comment. It gave me the impression that it was a Republican district, which he had previously won as a Republican and then switched parties and is now getting primaried.  
[ Parent ]
Easily
It's a seat in Clayton County made for a liberal Democrat.

There are plenty of Conservative Democrats still around. I'm not sure you could label any of our Gubernatorial candidates, except maybe Mangham, as being liberal and even at that, Mangham was somewhat conservative on social issues, like a majority of Georgians.

Most of our candidates this time around are Conservative Democrats.

Thurmond (U.S. Senate), Barnes (Governor), Porter (Lt. Governor), Hodges (Attorney General), Powell (Agriculture Commissioner), Hicks/Coleman (Labor), Moffett (PSC) are all center-right candidates, except MAYBE Porter.

Squires (Insurance), and Sinkfield/Buckner (Secretary of State) are the only liberals.

[ Parent ]
Looks like people underestimated
Greenburg's money, and looked too much at grassroots and establishment backing. It's increasingly apparent that money is that main thing that matters in 95% of all political races. Right now Chris Murphy has to be smiling, with a 3 way clusterf*** in the GOP primary, with all three of the candidates around 33% of the vote each.  
Deal is leading
By 2.6 points and 11,000 votes. Fulton County is 14% in with a 7,000 vote lead for Handel. Many of the rural counties though have already reported. DeKalb and Fulton Counties are taking a long time to report. This race could turn around for Handel at the last minute.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

I was saying this earlier
I assume that Handel will make gains towards the end when the Atlanta area counties start coming in, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see Deal take the lead narrowly but lose in the end

This race will crtainly narrow towards the end.
I'm just saying the Memorare that it's enough to put Handel ahead.  

[ Parent ]
Time
for a new thread yet?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
I say yes.

[ Parent ]
Agreed


for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Yup.

[ Parent ]
CO, CT, GA & MN Primary Results Thread | 178 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox