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SSP Daily Digest: 8/10 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 4:45 PM EDT


AK-Sen: You might have seen mention at other sites of a Tea Party Express "poll" of the GOP Senate primary in Alaska that had Joe Miller within 9 points of Lisa Murkowski. Mother Jones has been digging around, trying to find the poll, and can find no confirmation of its existence or even word of who took the poll, from either the Miller campaign or TPE.

CO-Sen: Jane Norton's closing argument wasn't about how great she was, but rather about her "concerns" with Ken Buck. Her interview with Politico this morning alluded to his "issues with spending and ethics."

IL-Sen: If all else fails, try tying your opponent to Saddam Hussein. That's what Mark Kirk's attempting, with an ad that accuses Broadway Bank of having made a 2006 loan to an Iraqi businessman with some sort of Hussein connections. Alexi Giannoulias pointed out that was after he'd already left the bank, but I think a better argument would be that Saddam Hussein was played in South Park Bigger Longer & Uncut by Matt Stone, who was in Baseketball with Greg Grunberg, who was in Hollow Man with Kevin Bacon.

LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon is out with his very first TV ad, as he and GOP candidate Chet Traylor try to put the squeeze on David Vitter from both directions. The ad (NWOTSOTB for $115K) launches a direct hit on how Vitter "hasn't been honest."

PA-Sen: Pat Toomey is out with yet another TV ad, a negative ad against opponent Joe Sestak. Their only word on the size of the buy is "significant." The Toomey campaign has been on the air with at least five different ads for a month now, without seeming to budge the poll numbers at all. Sestak hasn't hit the TV airwaves yet, and seems to, as was the case with his successful primary bid, marshalling his resources for a large salvo closer to the election.

KS-Gov: Wow, check out the opponent Sam Brownback dispatched in the GOP gubernatorial primary, if you're in the mood for serious nutjobbery. Joan Heffington alleges "CIA infiltration of western Kansas" and has faced sanctions for practicing law without a license. At any rate, having garnered 15% in the GOP primary, she's now saying she's a GDI (God-driven independent) and shouldn't have gotten suckered into that whole Republican racket in the first place, and as such is launching a write-in candidacy for November.

MI-Gov: You may remember state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, who pulled the plug on her gubernatorial candidacy on the day of the filing deadline, saying she didn't want to split the progressive vote (and thus giving a big boost to Lansing mayor and eventual primary winner Virg Bernero). Probably figuring that Bernero owes her big-time and also that he'd like some diversity on the ticket, Smith is now floating her own name for the Lt. Governor slot.

NY-Gov: GOP gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino has gone ahead and pulled the trigger on creating his own ballot line, the Taxpayers Party. It still remains a completely open question as to whether he plans to run on it if he loses the GOP primary, though. (He originally said he wouldn't be a spoiler in the race against Andrew Cuomo, but then changed to an "options open" position.)

IL-10: Dan Seals got apparently re-endorsed by the Illinois Federation of Teachers today. (He also had their backing in the Dem primary against Julie Hamos.)

IL-11: Rep. Debbie Halvorson didn't start out near the top of anyone's list of vulnerable Democrats, but she's starting to earn her position there. Republican opponent Adam Kinzinger has issued a second internal poll (the first one was in March) giving him a lead over Halvorson. The poll from POS gives him a 51-40 edge. (The article, however, helpfully points out that POS saw Halvorson with only a 2-point lead over the hapless Marty Ozinga six weeks before the election in 2008, a race which she went on to win by 24. Update: In 2008, we wrote about that POS poll here.)

IN-02: Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly, no stranger to occasional use of conservative framing, goes an extra step in his new TV ad hating on those immigrants, using a photo of Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama when saying how he stands apart from "the Washington crowd." John Boehner's lurking in the photo's background, too, so at least it's bipartisan.

KS-01: Wow, SurveyUSA sure likes polling KS-01, probably one of the likeliest races in the country to stay red. (Or at least KWCH-TV sure likes paying them to poll it.) They find Republican state Sen. Tim Huelskamp, who just won the primary, leading Dem Alan Jilka 65-23. (Jilka is a former mayor of Salina, which may actually make him a pretty big 'get' as far as this hopeless district goes.)

NH-02: When is a lobbyist not a lobbyist? It turns out that Katrina Swett, who has denied (gasp) lobbying, in fact filled out the required federal paperwork in 1997 to register as a lobbyist, although now her defense is that she never actually got around to lobbying once she registered. Swett has previously been attacking Dem primary foe Ann McLane Kuster for her own previous lobbying work.

TX-17: Rep. Chet Edwards got a key endorsement in this dark-red, largely rural Texas district: he got the backing of the NRA. It may seem odd to see so many conservaDems getting NRA backing, but the NRA's policy is where there are two equally pro-gun candidates, the incumbent gets the nod.

WV-01: Alan Mollohan 2.0? The man is actually talking like he's eyeing a 2012 comeback, having filed FEC paperwork setting up a 2012 candidacy (although it's unclear whether that was just to have a fundraising receptacle for donors' funds to repay a personal loan to his committee). He also just issued a long memo to supporters, bashing, well, everyone, ranging from Republican House members who pursued ethics complaints against him while they were in charge, to Mike Oliverio, who he says defeated him in this year's Dem primary using those discredited charges.

Census: Next time a Republican complains to you about the ineffective, bloated government, point him in the direction of the Census, which just came in $1.6 billion under budget (out of a total $14.7 billion appropriated) as it wraps up its main phase. A solid 72% initial response rate helped save money on the inevitable follow-up process.

Passages: Sadly, today we bid farewell to Ted Stevens, the long-serving Republican Senator from Alaska and chronicler of the inner workings of the series of tubes. Stevens died last night in a plane crash near the town of Dillingham, at the age of 86. Stevens was the survivor of a previous 1978 plane crash, which killed his first wife. We offer our best wishes to his friends and family.

Rasmussen:
IA-Sen: Roxanne Conlin (D) 35%, Chuck Grassley (R-inc) 55%
IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth (D) 29%, Dan Coats (R) 50%
NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 50%, John Stephen (R) 39%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/10 (Afternoon Edition)
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LA-Sen: $115k ad buy
h/t user GOPVOTER, in the morning digest, ref http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...  

Maybe I should read
Before I post. I just reposted this below.  

[ Parent ]
Hey, you found the info
you deserve the credit, and were just being pro-active in that respect.

[ Parent ]
IL-Sen. Shorter Mark Kirk: "bank bank bank, bank, bank bank
bank, bank, Saddam Hussein, bank, bank bank bank. Oh, and the bank."
from a Markos tweet yesterday http://twitter.com/markos/stat...

Kinda reminds
me of this:



19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
That was pretty brilliant
And it only got better in the tax hike speech.  What was it, terrorists, un-wed teen mothers and the legion of doom were plotting in the polluted lake.

Sometimes Family Guy aggravtates me, but this episode was one of their best.


[ Parent ]
Ellsworth, 29% ??
Ridiculous.

Anyway, with TX-17, if the election were held today, Edwards would lose. Good news he is slowly chipping away at Flores, day by day, week by week, turning this into a local race, which Edwards has found key to winning in the past. He already scored a big local victory for himself among the Texas A&M Alumni in College Station with his work in saving the Big 12.


I guess
according to Rasmussen's odd world Ellsworth should net like 5 to 10% on election day.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
IN-SEN: Apparently Dems to vote on Wednesday?
Apparently Rasmussen must be counting on Democrats voting on Monday and Wednesday...or Lake County being been annexed by Illinois....or....fill in the _________.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Illinois
already has a Lake County, bordering Cook Co. to the north. How confusing that would be if it also annexed Indiana's Lake County.

"I'm from Lake County, Illinois."
"oh, which one?"
"The one that's suburban, borders Cook County."
"...yeah, which one?"
"uhh the one that wasn't part of Indiana."

Yeah, hope that never happens. :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
make it easier for everyone
combine the lake counties and make a state out of them, just call it Lake. It'd be a Democratic stronghold :D

[ Parent ]
There's some conservative Lake Counties too
Lake County, Florida being the largest one.  Lake County, Ohio only went for Obama very narrowly.  The Illinois and Indiana Lakes definitely push The State of Lake into the Dem column though.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Lake County, CA also leans slightly Democratic
Lake County IL + IN would be a weird looking state though. I know we on SSP love to gerrymander districts using water contiguity, but creating a state with water contiguity?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Michigan?


21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
This is true, but
that's a much smaller distance, plus the UP and LP don't have another state between them; you can't drive from Lake County, IN to Lake County, IL without passing through another part of Illinois.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Build a bridge, connect them that way, hah


[ Parent ]
Again, Michigan
http://maps.google.com/maps?ie...

It's called the "Lost Peninsula," and the only way to get to it is by driving through Ohio.

Granted, both Lake Counties have a somewhat larger population, but the precedent is clearly there.


[ Parent ]
That's kind of cool
I think Ohio should just annex that.

Fun fact: Kaskaskia, Illinois, is west of the Mississippi River. It was originally on the same side of the river as the rest of Illinois, but a large earthquake in the early 19th century actually altered the course of the river, and now as a result Kaskaskia is on the Missouri side.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Can Bill White help Chet Edwards
Do we know what Perry's popularity is in TX-17.  Maybe Bill White can help, and certainly appearing with Edwards can only help Bill White.

[ Parent ]
Well, a little
Bill White probably has to win McLennan county, (Waco), outright if he expects to have a chance statewide; it's one of the Benchmarks I'm looking for in the race, it Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Jefferson, Williamson, Caldwell, Tarrant, Bexas, Nueces, and Bell. White also needs to hold down Perry to low double digits in Brazos. Perry will certainly still win Edwards's district by a double digit margin, but White needs that margin to be around 56-44 in order for him to be able win.  

[ Parent ]
PA - SEN
As I said earlier, I have no idea where he's airing these ads, because I simply haven't seen them in Philly.  I'll try to watch the local newscasts tonight and get a sense of it.

I just don't know where he could be spending the money.  August in Philadelphia is a time where everyone is outdoors grilling or eating at until like 9 every night and then at the Jersey Shore on the weekend.

Maybe its targeted at the burbs in Philly.  For Toomey's sake, I hope he's getting more bang in Pittsburgh...wait, no I don't :-)


Smith is from Washtenaw County isn't she?
It might be good to get a popular local Democrat on the ballot from there, help keep a strong Democratic margin there.Or maybe pick a prominent Macomb Politician, or someone from Flint. Benero needs to work hard to keep the narrow Democratic coalition together. He's got Lansing covered, Detroit is there regardless, now he just needs Oakland, Washtenaw, Genesee, and the UP to get a narrow victory.  

NY-GOV
Yes, if Palladino runs on a 3rd party line, certainly Lazio's chances are over.  Such a shame, Lazio was so close.

LOL


LA-Sen WOTSOTB
I posted it in the last digest: 115k http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...
Its not playing in Baton Rouge or New Orleans media markets, so the buy may go a little ways, since he spent it in the cheapest areas.  

KS-01
Ugh. Stupid Wichita TV station. Would it kill them to throw in a question about the gubernatorial race while they're at it? Then it would actually be worth surveying to get a taste of what Kansas' most rural, most conservative district thinks. Everyone knows Huelskamp is gonna win KS-01. (though, yes, Jilka is basically as strong of a candidate as Dems could possibly run....he could win if Huelskamp turns out to be a child molester...probably)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

RI-Gov
I apologize for the sketchiness of this, but I heard today about something Frank Caprio did that makes him unacceptable. Due to the sensitive nature of the incident I can't give any names or even specifics, but I'll say it is scandal-ish in nature and, if true, should drive every Dem to Chafee. I feel bad because of how few details I'm providing, but like I said I'm not at liberty to say more. Who knows, maybe someone will step forward and it will be an October surprise, but I just went from leaning towards Chafee to almost positive I'm voting for him, and I will probably leave the gubernatorial race blank when I vote in the primary (not like it matters, lol).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


What is restricting you?
From speaking more on the issue?

[ Parent ]
Privacy of the party involved.
This is not someone I have had direct contact with. It's hearsay, but from a family member who is a reliable source.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Not Denying Your Story
But of all the campaigns I have worked for it would be easier to list the ones were there were NOT whispers of an October Surprise of some kind.

[ Parent ]
Is it a reliable source? Maybe just a strong rumor?
If nothing comes up between now and November, fill us in after the election :P

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
Can't do that
like I said above, someone's privacy is at stake if I mention any details.

In the off-chance that this makes it to the news though, you get to be like, oh cool, I read about it on SSP first (though you still won't find out about how I heard about it, lol). I suppose the only immediate direct effect is that I, only one out of hundreds of thousands of RI voters, am a Chafee voter, and possibly a Chafee donor, we'll see.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Advice
Not to be rude but if you are not at liberty to say you really shouldn't tempt us like that. If this is something really bad my advice would be to see some local press and speak on anonymity for you and your family member. They can always just put you as an unnamed source and your relative as a victim or bystander without naming them if it is something like that. It may not be too late to replace him from the ballot if it is really that bad. I would highly advice that if it is bad and will hurt us you tip the press off now so we can have some time to regroup. I do not know the nature of it but if it is really bad the voters should have the right to know, don't you think? Just some friendly advice.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
don't think
that would be ok. Like I said, I heard this through hearsay and have no direct connection to the source. I am much more comfortable putting it on a site where few if none of the readers are members of the community here in Rhode Island. As I mentioned the only direct effect of this is to solidify my vote for Chafee. The voters' right to know doesn't trump the source's right to privacy. All I'm saying is that Caprio has skeletons in his closet (not unheard of by any means in RI politics) and that we have to consider the possibility this story could hit, but I don't plan on spreading it myself to a place where it could actually gain legs in RI media. FWIW this is more of a blight against his personal character than his ability to govern the state of Rhode Island. Besides, if this does sink Caprio, I doubt many people will cry since we have an arguably more liberal alternative in Chafee anyway.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
PPP
wants survey questions for IL and PA.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

IL
right now I am too tired/passive to bring this up myself, but as a gay guy who lives part-time in Illinois I am curious to see support for civil unions. The fact that civil unions--not even full marriage--are having trouble passing the legislature in such a blue state seems ridiculous to me, and I am curious as to whether this is a reflection of state government's dysfunction or whether attitudes in socially conservative downstate are simply stronger than attitudes in socially moderate Chicagoland.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Support for gay rights
isn't very strong among the Hispanic or Black establishment though, that's probably another part of it.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
but between liberal areas of Chicago and the socially moderate-to-liberal suburbs...well, full marriage may be a stretch, but I'd be shocked if civil unions didn't have majority support.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Why there is still time
To save lots of seats. Undecided voters.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


Localize, localize, localize
Critz showed the way, Chet Edwards is showing it in action right now, and started with the Big 12 debate. GOP opponent decries spending, Democrat goes to each and every school, VA clinic, and fire station in the district asking what they need and hand deliver the check showing not big government spending, but support for their constituents.

Make the race about your voters and what they need, not about the grandiose ideas of what the government should be.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Agree, agree, agree


[ Parent ]
Ispos for Reuters
OH-SEN and OH-GOV

Portman 43% (R)
Fisher 36% (D)

Kasich 48% (R)
Strickland 39% (D)

Only 52% (!) of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting

http://www.reuters.com/article...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


This sample seems a tad too Republican,
well, make that a lot. That's by a margin of 2 or 3 to 1, the biggest lead I've seen for Kaisch in months, as well as 3 times as big a lead for Portman as even Rasmussen has given him.  

[ Parent ]
Well
we know that this sample at least for the Senate is better than PPP's from a few weeks ago, which showed an Obama +6 sample in an Obama +5 state.

So I would tend to believe Reuters/Ispos

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
Upon
further look, I probably trust the most recent Rasmussen poll from there which showed Portman +4. This sample looks too much Republican, but then again, PPP's looked too Democratic.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Odd
Rasmussen found movement the other way in both races just the other day.

[ Parent ]
OH-Gov/Sen: Kasich up 9, Portman up 7
TN-GOV
Haslam 56% (R)
McWherter 31% (D)

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


OMG BREAKING NEWS DEVELOPING STORY
2010 is going to be a more Republican year than 2006. Holy shit. I'm like freaking out right now. did ANYONE see this coming?

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Save us, Aqua Buddha!


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Maybe we didn't get an electoral upgrade with
Mike Olivero.

AFL-CLO staying neutral:

At this time, there's probably a good chance that we'll be neutral in that race. We had a very dear friend in Alan Mollohan, and it's hard to replace something like that," said West Virginia AFL-CIO President Kenneth Purdue. "We have not found the current candidates to be strong supporters of labor."

The same with other labor unions, one of which even backed McKinley, (it had originally endorse Mollohan). They are a crucial part of the Democratic coalition in this district and they simply don't like Olivero much, even though he's tried to get more to the left since the primary. What's more Ken Hechler is starting a PAC to oppose him, and Alan Mollohan's already starting a 2012 campaign. I'm starting to think ethical troubles and all, Mollohan would have been a better choice to hold the district.  


Olivero's
internal poll had him up by 16. With Manchin carrying this district in November, I think we will win.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
LA-02 Dem debate
Darth Jeff, you said you wanted me to post this:
Part I http://www.wdsu.com/video/2458...
Part II http://www.wdsu.com/video/2458...
Part III http://www.wdsu.com/video/2458...
Part IV http://www.wdsu.com/video/2458...
Some backgroud on the candidates:
Juan LaFonta and Cedric Richmond: State Reps
Gary Johnson: former congressional aide, focusing only on young African Americans
Eugene Green: former Bill Jefferson Chief of Staff

Learned something already
The redistricting committee in the LA House has 11 republicans and 5 dems, and 1 indy.  

[ Parent ]
Vitter leads, Traylor polling at some dude level, Jindal very popular
The SMOR poll is out in LA:
Vitter leads Melancon 46-28
Vitter leads Traylor 78-4
Jindal has a 70-27% approval rating.
For those who care, the Lt. Gov race:
SoS Jay Dardenne 26
Country music singer Sammy Kershaw 15
St. Tammany Parish Pres Kevin Davis: 6
LAGOP chair Roger Villere: 2
I don't see those numbers holding up. I'm expecting a Dardenne-Villere run-off. Villere has the organization and fundraising ability (John McCain and Newt Gingrich are holding fundraisers for him), and Dardenne has a huge cash advantage over everyone, with over 800k. Dardenne and Davis are considered the moderates, with Villere winning the support of the Tea Party crowd. Davis even endorsed Landrieu in 2008. I know one person I won't be voting for...


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