Google Ads


Site Stats

CO-Sen: Bennet Leads GOPers, Romanoff In Dead Heat

by: Crisitunity

Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 1:06 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (pdf) (8/7-8, Colorado voters, 5/14-16 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (44)
Jane Norton (R): 40 (41)
Undecided: 14 (14)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (45)
Ken Buck (R): 43 (39)
Undecided: 12 (16)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 42 (43)
Jane Norton (R): 43 (41)
Undecided: 15 (16)

Andrew Romanoff (D-inc): 43 (41)
Ken Buck (R): 42 (38)
Undecided: 15 (22)
(MoE: ±3.1%)

With all eyes on the Senate primaries today (for which they released numbers yesterday, giving small leads to Michael Bennet and Jane Norton), PPP is also out with how things look for the general. This has been an easy race to get pessimistic about, but that's because the race has been polled almost exclusively by Rasmussen; PPP's few looks at the race have tended to give small advantages to the Democrats, and that continues to be the case here.

What PPP's Tom Jensen finds most striking about this race is how unpopular everyone currently is, thanks to heavy doses of negative campaigning on both sides of the aisle. Bennet, for instance, is at 32/48 approvals (down from 34/44 in May), not the kind of numbers you usually recover from... unless the Republicans are doing worse. Norton is at 28/44 (down from 20/32), and Ken Buck seems to have fared the worst of all, dropping to 26/46 (down from 19/24). Andrew Romanoff comes the closest to smelling like roses (or at least vaguely rose-scented compost), at 35/37 (down from 31/26). So, although Bennet currently fares better than Romanoff in the general, probably thanks to his name rec advantage, Romanoff would seem to have more upside... but the real question, if Romanoff somehow pulls off the upset in the primary tonight, would be whether Romanoff can access the money quickly enough to capitalize on his room to grow.

Crisitunity :: CO-Sen: Bennet Leads GOPers, Romanoff In Dead Heat
Tags: , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Optimal situation
Clear Dem winner, recount for GOP.

Anybody know of any non-PPP/Ras polls for the race?
That might give us a better idea of who's closer. PPP has recently shown a much rosier picture for the Dems while Ras is doing his same-old, same-old...a third party would be welcome. It's also a shame they didn't poll the primaries...

Here's hoping for a Bennet win.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)


SurveyUSA polled it
It showed Buck tied with Romanoff and Benett if I recall correctly and Norton leading both men.

[ Parent ]
No I think Bennett was leading Norton
And Romanoff was behind by like five points.

[ Parent ]
Bennet lead Norton
Norton lead Bennet. You are correct Buck tied both.

[ Parent ]
Norton lead Romanoff


[ Parent ]
I would say that Colorado
Florida and California have the most interesting Governor/Senate race combinations this cycle.

horse race
I'd replace California with Ohio. Both races in Ohio are more or less tossups. In CA the governor's race will be close but I don't think the Senate race will. Boxer is clearly ahead and I don't think Fiorina has much room to grow.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
This race...
may be particularly hard to get a gauge on because of the ongoing events in the GOP gubernatorial primary.  I would imagine if there's enough bad blood and damage done over there, it would have some spillover effect into the Senate race and the downballot House races as well.

BTW, can anyone explain exactly where "cat fud" comes from?  All I could find was a Far Side cartoon, but I don't think that's what SSP'ers mean.  So I don't know if I can call what's happening on the GOP side in CO-Gov "cat fud" or not.  :-\


Oh it is the Far Side Cartoon
Some days, we are all the Dog.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
blame the confusion on wayne
down with wayne!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Hmm...
I thought that would only apply if we, as the dog, deliberately set events in motion that caused the particular GOP clusterfuck.  Otherwise, it's just them shooting themselves in the foot, rather than being led to it by Democrats' secretive plotting.

But that's just me.  :-)

Thanks for that, though.  I kept wondering when it was applied to the Crist-Rubio primary, did we secretly recruit Rubio or something, and he took the bait??  It left me very much confused for a while there.  :-P


[ Parent ]
Doesn't work in Florida
Rubio was in first. Crist was actually the usurper.

[ Parent ]
Above average Mccain heavy sample
with a 10% Obama no-show rate in November.  This is pretty high given Colorado only has about 4% African-American voters, and if anything, Latinos will turn out higher with Tancredo on the ballot.

In any case, these are significant leads for Bennet.


The numbers of "Obama" voters who show are not relevant
and has been refuted per http://www.swingstateproject.c...  

[ Parent ]
Um, yeah they do
Maybe you can go back and take high school math next lifetime, but in the meantime, what do you even think those NJ and VA numbers even say?  The Virginia poll directly makes my point.

And do you really still not understand the difference between changing preference to no shows?

While in your world a sample of 1% Obama voters and 99% McCain voters is "not relevant", you are mistaken.


[ Parent ]
spelling it out
in the VA case, there was an inverse relationship between Obama approval and votes for Deeds.

In the NJ case, a difference in 16 in Obama approval had virtually 0 correlation with the vote for Corzine (2 points)

as stated http://www.swingstateproject.c...

In other words, Obama voters / approvals are irrelevant.


[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox