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CT-Gov, CT-Sen: Down to the Wire

by: James L.

Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 11:24 PM EDT


Quinnipiac (8/3-8, likely voters, 7/28-8/2 in parens):

Tom Foley (R): 38 (41)
Mike Fedele (R): 30 (26)
Oz Griebel (R): 17 (13)
Undecided: 14 (21)
(MoE: 3.8%)

Ned Lamont (D): 45 (45)
Dan Malloy (D): 42 (40)
Undecided: 12 (14)
(MoE: 4.6%)

Quinnipiac finds some major movement for both Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy in the Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries, respectively. That's the power of well-timed attack ads at work, and it should make for an exciting evening tomorrow night.

General election numbers (7/28-8/2, registered voters, 7/7-13 in parens):

Ned Lamont (D): 48 (49)
Michael Fedele (R): 33 (27)
Undecided: 14 (19)

Ned Lamont (D): 46 (45)
Tom Foley (R): 33 (33)
Undecided: 17 (17)

Ned Lamont (D): 50 (49)
Oz Greibel (R): 27 (25)
Undecided: 19 (21)

Dan Malloy (D): 47 (39)
Michael Fedele (R): 30 (26)
Undecided: 18 (20)

Dan Malloy (D): 46 (44)
Tom Foley (R): 31 (33)
Undecided: 16 (19)

Dan Malloy (D): 50 (51)
Oz Greibel (R): 25 (25)
Undecided: 18 (21)
(MoE: ±2.7%)

The boys in blue still look pretty good, but we'll see how the shape of this race will change once Quinnipiac adjusts to a likely voter screen.

Finally, we've got some numbers from the on again/off again GOP Senate primary (8/3-8, likely voters, 7/28-8/2 in parens). And don't call it a comeback...

Linda McMahon (R): 50 (47)
Rob Simmons (R): 28 (30)
Peter Schiff (R) : 15 (14)
Undecided: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±3.8%)

...because it ain't. A Rob Simmons victory tomorrow night would either be an epic polling fail or a spectacular late-game change of heart in the GOP electorate.

The final piece -- Senatorial general election numbers (7/28-8/2, registered voters, 7/7-13 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 50 (54)
Linda McMahon (R): 40 (37)
Undecided: 7 (7)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (55)
Rob Simmons (R): 35 (35)
Undecided: 7 (9)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 57 (58)
Peter Schiff (R): 30 (31)
Undecided: 9 (9)
(MoE: ±2.7%)

James L. :: CT-Gov, CT-Sen: Down to the Wire
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So it seems like Malloy-Fedele is the best matchup? I can go with that.


It should be
47-30, not 20. I think Fedele is actually the stronger candidate. Sure, he can't raise as much money and self-fund like Foley, but I think Foley's personal issues will hurt him. Also, Rell's support for Fedele should help.

[ Parent ]
CT-Sen is see-sawing between Likely and Lean Dem for me
If McMahon's down 10 pre-primary, I suspect she could get a post-primary bounce which makes it a high single-digit race, presuming she creams Simmons tomorrow. If she weren't bleeding nearly a fifth of Republicans, this would already be in the single-digits.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Me too
I'm guessing Q-Pac will have a poll a soon after the primary, considering how often they have been polling CT. I'm thinking then we will see McMahon gain a few, while Blumenthal stays at 50. I think Blumenthal's biggest worry should be that McMahon has not gone negative yet. As soon as the primary is over, she will probably go hard negative on him. The question is, can he survive it? Also, are we placing bets on what Ras shows after this primary? McMahon 50, Blumenthal 46 is mine.  

[ Parent ]
Actually, any Ras bias
may be ancient history.  His Obama approval numbers and his state-by-state numbers are not far off from anyone else.

PPP is churning out just as many head-scratchers (if you play the "average out the polls" game).  Nobody else has showed KY-SEn, TX-Gov, or NC-Sen as ties.

So I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Ras polling.


[ Parent ]
Rasmussen's
1st post primary poll might need to be discredited. He has a bad history with them this year.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen does lean Republican
At this stage, Rasmussen seems to be leveling out numbers more. The PPP polls aren't really head-scratchers, all of those races are going to be close, even Rasmussen hasn't had the Republican candidates above 50%.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
On what basis do you conclude
those races "are going to be close."

No poll other than PPP shows KY-Sen or TX-Gov to be what is normally thought of as a "close race."


[ Parent ]
Uh...
Texas has only been polled by Rasmussen and PPP (recently anyways), so what you are saying about that one is literally Rasmussen disagrees with PPP ergo... PPP must be in the wrong

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
And therein lies GH's bias
Amusing if nothing else.

[ Parent ]
Once again you are wrong
In KY Braun showed a three point race and SurveyUSA a six point race around that time, Rasmussen always more. A close race is anything that polls in single digits.

[ Parent ]
Interesting
Rasmussen
Chris Coons (D) 37%

Mike Castle (R) 49%

PPP
Chris Coons (D) 35%

Mike Castle (R) 48%  

Blaming a pollster because you are not happy with the final result is a sign of desperation.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


[ Parent ]
LOL
yeah, nobody else has showed Rand Paul leading by 25 or John Boozman leading by 38 either.

Btw, your boy Scotty Ras has showed both TX-Gov and NC-Sen in the MoE at certain points. And there have only been four non-PPP/Ras TX-Gov polls, one from June 2008, two from February, one from May.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
For example, the polling he is showing
for Haley and Snyder shows them both under 50%.

The only thing off from Ras seems to be the favorable/unfavorable ratings of different politicians.  they are completely inconsistent with other polls.


[ Parent ]
Blumenthal hasn't gone negative either
He actually hasn't done much of anything since June. The Rasmussen bounce will probably make it McMahon down something like 49-45.

[ Parent ]
Watch Charlie Cook
move the race back into Toss Up status if that poll actually comes out, because he's got a clear narrative of "democrats are doomed" and he's really pushed it hard in Connecticut in particular.  He friggin had this race in toss up for weeks until a bunch of Blumenthal +20 polls came out, which forced him to very reluctantly move it to Leans D.  (When it should have gone to Likely or Safe D)

Maybe he's just believing all the Blumenthal = Coakley bs.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
One unexpected twist from Cook
He moved LA-Sen from likely to lean-R about a month ago, and it's still there. Perhaps he's also believing that it's an anti-incumbent year.

[ Parent ]

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