Google Ads


Site Stats

MN-Gov: All Dems Lead Emmer, Dayton Leads Primary

by: Crisitunity

Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 1:10 PM EDT


Princeton Survey Research for Minneapolis Star-Tribune (7/26-29, registered voters, no trendlines):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 40
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 30
Matt Entenza (DFL): 17
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±7.8%)

Mark Dayton (DFL): 40
Tom Emmer (R): 30
Tom Horner (I): 13
Undecided: 17

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 38
Tom Emmer (R): 29
Tom Horner (I): 13
Undecided: 18

Matt Entenza (DFL): 36
Tom Emmer (R): 31
Tom Horner (I): 15
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Things haven't been going so well for Tom Emmer lately, who at one point immediately after the GOP convention had a unity-bounce lead in the polls (or at least in the Rasmussen/SurveyUSA likely voter universe). In the last few weeks, he's released a weak fundraising report, been the target of big advertising blitzes from both Matt Entenza and a Dem 527, and won't be able to ever eat in a restaurant in Minnesota again, as his waitstaff is likely to be serving him loogie sandwiches for the foreseeable future. On top of all that comes the new Star-Tribune poll, which may be the most bullish on DFL chances of any poll yet: it gives all three DFL candidates, even Entenza, a decent lead over Emmer.

They also look at the DFL primary, although the 7.8% MoE is pretty absurd. At any rate, the results mirror what other polls of the primary have found: Mark Dayton with a lead of 10 or so over Margaret Anderson Kelliher. The DFL-endorsed Kelliher also got the Star-Tribune's endorsement over the weekend. Whether those endorsements help her to overcome Dayton and Entenza's money, well, we'll have to wait until Aug. 10 to find out.

Crisitunity :: MN-Gov: All Dems Lead Emmer, Dayton Leads Primary
Tags: , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

If this comes to pass
It makes me happy :-)  I never really hated Dayton, and never thought his whole Senate office thing was more than a goof anyways.  He could conceivably be governor for quite a while.

businesspeople seem to make better governors than senators any way
of the few businesspeople who are elected to the federal legislature, they don't stay long.  corzine, dayton, fitzgerald.  also, remember how tim mahoney was an embarrassment before the trouser troubles?  mr. "this isn't the bestjob i've ever had."  businesspeople should stick with mayoralships and governorships.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Ehh kinda sorta
I dont think anything can be universally stated as such.

I think CEO's like giving orders and having their way, and that's harder to do as 1 of 100 than the 1.  To this end I agree with you.

However, we've had a decent amount of Governors go on to be decent Senators/Congresspersons throughout the course of this country that almost contradicts the first point.

Both Corzine and Dayton could have stayed longer than they did I believe.  Who knows how good they would have been, but both would have probably been reliably Democratic votes on most things.


[ Parent ]
true, but
governors who become senators had previous political experience, they understood how they system works.  compromise, politics, etc etc.  businesspeople without such experience might have a harder time.  and while they might be okay at being a senator, they might also hate it, hence the job jumping

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Polls done for the Star Tribune
always are more Dem friendly than any other polls of MN.  However, I remember one poll they had done that showed Klobuchar with some monky-fuck ridiculous 22% margin or something, and then she won by 20%.

Im liking these numbers.


And Im also re-thinking voting for Entenza
He's always polled the worse out of the three.  Ugh, i have so much research to do this weekend.  I need to watch the attack ads, I want whoever is going to bury Emmer in negativity.

[ Parent ]
Why
In all the polls he leads the least againist Emmer. I would think you want Dayton to win if you want a Dem back to running St. Paul.

Regardless I like the numbers i've seen from MN-Gov in the last polls espically MAK losing to Dayton which shows you once agsin MN. Let the people decide their nominee, not a bunch a actvists who are destined to fuck it up like in MN-3. Also I like that so far everyone is beating Emmer. Scared because because after the GOP convention Emmer has a big lead againist MAK. Guess his far conservative ain't playing in the Twin Cities.  

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


[ Parent ]
Dayton can't grow his numbers.
Dayton has tons of name recognition.  His poll numbers versus Emmer won't go up from where they are and it's likely that Emmer's numbers will go up versus Dayton.

MAK and Emmer have about the same name recognition.  She will be able to maintain or grow her lead against Emmer.


[ Parent ]
Not likely
The way Emmer has campaigned so far.

[ Parent ]
Dayton is probably at square one
with younger voters though.  He was elected to the Senate a decade ago and Dayton's the store has zero nostalgia associated with it like it does for my parents and relatives.

I remember reading that Coleman won in 2002 in part to young voters not knowing who Mondale and him needing a lot longer than two weeks to win them over.


[ Parent ]
She will be able to maintain or grow her lead against Emmer.
Everyone here will disagree with you on that. People think we will lose with MAK as the nominee and cringed whrn she was picked over RT Rybak so I don't if your opinion holds water in this situtation.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Here's my whole thinking
Entenza- will be a brutal campaigner against Emmer and he knows policy inside and out.  Ive been talking about making MN a center of green tech like it is with biotech for awhile and that is his number one focus.  He is also the number one pick of LGBTers due to his history of being one of the first state legislators to come out for gay marriage.  Problem, he comes off too smarmy, like he's too good at being disciplined and a politician.  His LG pick was a hail mary (she's a news anchor), and it always gives me major pause that I dont know a single person supporting Entenza besides people working for him.  He also polls the worst and I dont think that'd change.

Dayton- he puts the race in the bag, he's well liked, well respected, has the most progressive plans and will tax the rich more than the other two, and I really like that he is kind of shy and doesnt fit the mold of a politician.  Him not being a douche bag politician is what makes me I know I can trust him; he has no agenda, he's not in this for himself, he doesnt like the limelight, he just wants to serve.  The only negative is that he doesnt inspire me whatsoever.  He's just a nice guy who has his heart in the right place, while also knowing his shit.  But that doesnt make me want to vote for him, it makes me okay with him winning.

MAK- she's Speaker so she knows her caucus, which will be very important because we aren't losing either chamber in 2010 and she'll know how to work with our DFL majorities to get legislative accomplishments.  (Dayton is criticized for wanting too big of tax increases that'll never pass.)  She's a woman which not only that it's about time, but I think she is going to kill it in the suburbs because of this, especially against Emmer who will absolutely be making heavy cuts in education if elected.  Main fault is that she sucked hardcore as Speaker and got absolutely SPANKED by T-Paw time and time again legislatively.  (Although I dont know if anyone else could have done better.)  She also only got the endorsement because of the super-delegates at the convention, and the super delegates are primarily state house and senate members, so as Speaker getting them wasn't hard.  And as a plus and minus, she won the endorsement through pure strategry of knowing how to work a DFL endorsement.

I guess it's such a tough choice because Im 99.99% sure all three will win, so it gets more to the nitty gritty.  One more negative against Entenza is that because of what would be a more mediocre win, he wont help dowballot.  MAK will kick ass in the suburbs and Dayton will kick ass in Greater MN, particularly northern MN.  (Save for Duluth and the Iron Range, you can't get those areas much more blue.)


[ Parent ]
I like Dayton
I really do. Hope he pulls it out.

20, Democrat, KY-01


Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox