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CA-Gov, CA-Sen: More Leads for Brown, Boxer

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 12:39 AM EDT


Public Policy Institute of California (pdf) (7/6-20, likely voters, 5/9-16 (pdf) in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 37 (42)
Meg Whitman (R): 34 (37)
Other: 5 (NA)
Undecided: 23 (21)

Barbara Boxer (D): 39 (48)
Carly Fiorina (R): 34 (39)
Other: 5 (NA)
Undecided: 22 (13)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

PPIC seems like one of the more prolific and reliable California pollsters, and this is their first release since the May primaries. Not much has changed: Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer still have single-digits leads over their Republican opposition, with a few points shaved off the margin since May in each case. The trendlines plus the margins shouldn't fill one with great confidence, but there's also a sense here that, with huge Republican ad spending and the Dems only starting to engage these races, this is about as good as it's going to get for the GOP, given the state's bluish hue.

The poll also asked a number of topic about the environment; it finds that Californians are opposed to offshore drilling by a 59-36 margin (a 16-point shift since last year). While they didn't poll on Proposition 23, they did poll on AB 32, the greenhouse gases legislation that Prop 23 would seek to put on hold. AB 32 has 67% approval, and 53% say act now on limiting emissions. They also ask about Arnold Schwarzenegger's approval, and let's just say they look about as good as the box office receipts for The 6th Day: they're at 25/62. PPP also just released Schwarzenegger numbers (19/71), and in an interesting hypothetical, found that in a matchup of unpopular Governors, Gray Davis (who got recalled for make way for Ah-nuld) would beat Schwarzenegger 44-38.

Crisitunity :: CA-Gov, CA-Sen: More Leads for Brown, Boxer
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how is there so much undecided?
does this make this poll incredible (in the literal sense of the word)?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

There are so many undecided
because pollsters don't need a license or any ability to do a poll.

These guys have 23% undecided.  Rassmussen has 3%.  One or both are full of shit.

PP says 14% are undecided.  


[ Parent ]
If the undecideds were true...
Then these would be guaranteed victories for both Dems.  

Let's face it, with all of the anti-incumbent vibe, people who are undecided really would seem to be former Brown/Boxer voters waiting for a reason to vote Whitman/Fiorina.  If the current economy and all the other negatives in the world haven't done it yet, then it will never happen.


[ Parent ]
I admit
as a native Californian after reading the stories about Jerry Brown's campaign and seeing the poll a few weeks ago that had Fiorina and Whitman leading I thought the sky was falling here California and we were heading towards a bloodbath in November. I can rest a little easier tonight, but we're not out of the woods yet.

But I encourage and I demand the RGA and the NRSC pour millions into California in a vain attempt to drag Fiorina and Whitman over the finish line. That will be less money they could use in more winnable races.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Though 42%...
seem to favor the idea behind Prop. 23, and hold off on doing anything until the job figures improve.  Though I'm not sure if they'd go as far as the proposition does, which is a pie-in-the-sky 5.5% unemployment for several quarters in a row, which would ensure AB 32's death for all practical purposes.

Though I have a right-wing Facebook "friend" who brags about how those numbers will change once his Big Oil buddies start flooding California with millions of dollars in misleading ads to drive up the fear of the "job killing" AB 32.  :-\


It will change votes away from the coast
But probably won't make any headway on the coast.  

I'd like to see a DISCLOSE like legislation put on the ballot in California that would force out of state corporations to identify themselves on their ads.


[ Parent ]
Being too obvious that you're the one backing a campaign can backfire
As PG&E learned this June with Prop 16.  All the conservative counties in the PG&E service area voted against it, despite it being couched in anti-tax rhetoric.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
davis vs ahnollld
i think mickey mouse would be a credible option in that scenario.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Or Admiral Stockdale


for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]

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