Public Policy Institute of California (pdf) (7/6-20, likely voters, 5/9-16 (pdf) in parentheses):
Jerry Brown (D): 37 (42)
Meg Whitman (R): 34 (37)
Other: 5 (NA)
Undecided: 23 (21)Barbara Boxer (D): 39 (48)
Carly Fiorina (R): 34 (39)
Other: 5 (NA)
Undecided: 22 (13)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
PPIC seems like one of the more prolific and reliable California pollsters, and this is their first release since the May primaries. Not much has changed: Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer still have single-digits leads over their Republican opposition, with a few points shaved off the margin since May in each case. The trendlines plus the margins shouldn’t fill one with great confidence, but there’s also a sense here that, with huge Republican ad spending and the Dems only starting to engage these races, this is about as good as it’s going to get for the GOP, given the state’s bluish hue.
The poll also asked a number of topic about the environment; it finds that Californians are opposed to offshore drilling by a 59-36 margin (a 16-point shift since last year). While they didn’t poll on Proposition 23, they did poll on AB 32, the greenhouse gases legislation that Prop 23 would seek to put on hold. AB 32 has 67% approval, and 53% say act now on limiting emissions. They also ask about Arnold Schwarzenegger’s approval, and let’s just say they look about as good as the box office receipts for The 6th Day: they’re at 25/62. PPP also just released Schwarzenegger numbers (19/71), and in an interesting hypothetical, found that in a matchup of unpopular Governors, Gray Davis (who got recalled for make way for Ah-nuld) would beat Schwarzenegger 44-38.
does this make this poll incredible (in the literal sense of the word)?
as a native Californian after reading the stories about Jerry Brown’s campaign and seeing the poll a few weeks ago that had Fiorina and Whitman leading I thought the sky was falling here California and we were heading towards a bloodbath in November. I can rest a little easier tonight, but we’re not out of the woods yet.
But I encourage and I demand the RGA and the NRSC pour millions into California in a vain attempt to drag Fiorina and Whitman over the finish line. That will be less money they could use in more winnable races.
seem to favor the idea behind Prop. 23, and hold off on doing anything until the job figures improve. Though I’m not sure if they’d go as far as the proposition does, which is a pie-in-the-sky 5.5% unemployment for several quarters in a row, which would ensure AB 32’s death for all practical purposes.
Though I have a right-wing Facebook “friend” who brags about how those numbers will change once his Big Oil buddies start flooding California with millions of dollars in misleading ads to drive up the fear of the “job killing” AB 32. :-\
i think mickey mouse would be a credible option in that scenario.