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NM-01: Heinrich in Trouble?

by: James L.

Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 12:09 AM EDT


SurveyUSA (7/22-25, likely voters, no trend lines):

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 45
Jon Barela (R): 51
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.2%)

There's been a lot of chatter today about this explosive new SUSA poll showing frosh Democrat Martin Heinrich trailing his Republican challenger, former Albuquerque Hispanic Chamber of Commerce leader Jon Barela. Let's slice this sucker open and take a look at the innards.

SurveyUSA polled this contest once before in 2008 and several times in 2006 -- culminating in an early November poll showing a razor-thin lead for Democrat Patsy Madrid. Let's take a look at three demographic yardsticks from each poll, starting with its sample composition of 18-34 year-olds, a particularly controversial age bracket for SUSA this cycle:

Nov-06 Aug-08 Jul-10
Vote Share 24% 20% 16%
Dem Margin 8% 37% -3%

Next up, Hispanic voters:

Nov-06 Aug-08 Jul-10
Vote Share 37% 24% 27%
Dem Margin 16% 23% 13%

And, finally, party affiliation:

Nov-06 Aug-08 Jul-10
Democratic 46% 47% 45%
Republican 39% 36% 39%
Independent 13% 16% 16%

Nothing particularly dramatic outside of Heinrich's supposed collapse among younger voters. I'm inclined to believe this is a real race (though I'm not yet convinced that Heinrich is actually down).

In response, Heinrich's campaign released an internal poll of their own. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (7/8-13, likely voters, 4/28-5/2 in parens):

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 53 (55)
Jon Barela (R): 41 (38)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

At the very least, this race is getting closer -- which isn't good news for anyone.
James L. :: NM-01: Heinrich in Trouble?
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NM-01: Heinrich in Trouble? | 97 comments
I could
believe this race is closer than what Heinrich's victory in 2008 suggested. It was only because Obama cleaned house with Hispanics throughout New Mexico that Heinrich won by such a large margin.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
I can believe that
Obama put alot of Dems to victory (Kanjorski) or victory by large margins by bringing out certain demographics this case in point Heinrich with Hispanics. Question is even by a razor thin margin do you believe Heinrich is in the lead? I do.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
GOP
lucked out here too by running an Hispanic Republican against Heinrich. So Heinrich might not be able to benefit from a higher Hispanic turnout due to Susana Martinez's candidacy. By the way, anyone have the country results for this race from 2008?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
It depends
If Martinez and Barela can reach out to other hispanic voters in a conservative approach that won't turn off Hispanics that voted for Obama and Heinrich. I can't imagine every Hispanic will vote for Martinez and Barela simply because of ethnicity.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Its
definitely having an effect. The last PPP poll I think showed Martinez leading in the most hispanic CD in NM.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
NM
Is one of the states where we did not fuck up in the primaries. We have a Hispanic Gov nominee, a Hispanic lt. gov nominee, and a Hispanic congressional nominee.  
[ Parent ]
Well it all has to be seen if it pays off in November
All that dosen't necessarily guarentee victory. BTW we have a Hispanic for Lt. Gov as well just to put that out.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
But, they could have done a lot worse, as Republicans in nearly every other state have proven. I think the NM Republican party has a very solid ticket. The one race that disappoints me though is Lujan's district. The last PPP poll showed him the most unpopular of NM's congressmen. We didn;t get a very good challenger there.  
[ Parent ]
Thats because Lujan's district
Is D+7 and there isn't a strong bench there. That answers your question. The ticket may be right because of the ethnicity but that dosen't guarentee Martinez can win and bring in other below her with her. All that means is what you said: Atleast they didn't fuck up.

I wouldn't say the GOP fucked up in EVERY state. Tom Corbett in PA comes to mind.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
The California GOP has its strongest ticket in ages also
with an Hispanic dude, a black dude, and three women. However, of those, I only expect one of those women, Fiorina, to have a fighting chance of winning. And also one of the white dudes, Cooley in the A.G. race.

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Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Interesting
I am not from Cali but from what I know I think Whitman has a better chance than Fiorina.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I am from CA
...and I agree. Fiorina has views that are too conservative across the board (economic conservatives can win statewide here, but social/cultural conservatives can't), no background in government or politics, a business record that is generally seen as unsuccessful, and an unappealing personality. Whitman at least has more money, a better business record, more moderate views at least on social issues, and a less abrasive personality.

Fiorina also has a tougher opponent. Boxer is equally abrasive and an orthodox liberal, but she's a tough campaigner who knows how to win ugly. Brown is a political chameleon with a cool zen-master image, but if he has any message or campaign, I haven't seen it yet.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Hmmm I disagree
They got the right gender and ethnicity but that dosen't guarentee victory. It depends on the people. I think Cooley can win the AG race, Whitman and Fiorina could make it close but I see neither one beating Brown or Boxer.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
But if I had to pick
I would say I can see a Whitman victory than a Fiorina victory.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
They did very good. We only have 3 white guys on the ticket (AG, Comptroller, and Ins. Commissioner). They are going to do very good at bringing new voters to the CA Republican party I think.  
[ Parent ]
Well just have to see now will we
Because the only one I see a good chance of winning is the man running for AG.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I think
Cooley, Moladondo (sp?), Fiorina, and Whitman all have a chance.  
[ Parent ]
I think all but Fiorina have a chance
In my opinion she'll lose because she's too conservatives and have made too many gaffes along the trail. Cooley has a chance because of his bsckground. Maldonaldo because who's he's facing and Whitman because it's Jerry Brown. I think Brown will win but if loses don't put me on the i'm shocked list.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Apparently
me and Daylin Bradley-Byak think a lot alike.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Well it's always good to agree
But like myself your very smart when it comes to politics, espically in IN for the obvious reason.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Thanks.
We have a lot of people that are smart with Indiana politics. I think there are more people from Indiana than any other state on this blog. Maybe California but there are definitely a lot of hoosiers here, at least five possibly six.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I see that
I agree with you we got alot of people from IN and CA but we also got a good bunch from NY as well, including the people who run this site.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Cooley
is probably favored to win and Moladondo will probably also win, although the field poll showed Newsom leading, however while I give her a "chance" I do not think Fiorina will win. I could see Whitman but not Fiorina.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Abel Maldonado is less likely to win
   than Steve Cooley (GOP AG candidate). He has some problems paying his taxes (which is not a good kind of scandal for a candidate for high office). He is not from a major city and is not especially well known. He has the stink of Ahhnold on him as he was anointed by the Califuehrer, not elected by the voters (after our real LG got elected to the House--John Garamendi in CA-10). Abel is a slimy opportunist, though arguably more moderate than his brother Cain (bit 'o' snark).

   Steve Cooley is from the largest county in the state (L.A.) and has been elected and re-elected as District Attorney. He doesn't have a lot of obvious ideological baggage and has an image of competence, unlike his predecessors in that office. Cooley's opponent is Kamala Harris who is the D.A. of a much smaller county (San Francisco) and may have some other problems, including that she doesn't have the macho image that some associate with law enforcement types.

   I would love to see a sweep of the statewide offices by the Democrats, but if it doesn't happen it will be because Cooley wins Attorney General. Some of the Greedy Old Party candidates have no chance at all: Damon Dunn for SoS=Some Black Dude. Mimi Walters for Treasurer=Mimi Who?
Whoever finally won the Ins Comm primary?="Bowie" (Dave Jones) beats him easily... Carly=Joke...  Queen Meg and Cooley are the only ones with much of a chance to win in November.

   

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Luckily
for Harris neither Cooley or herself are well known yet to the entire state. Its possible with a good campaign Harris could eek a victory.

But if this is how she's going to run her campaign I'm not confident that she's going to pull it out...



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Ehhh...
That's partially true, Heinrich did under-perform Obama in the district, but the fact is that the Republicans did have a top-tier challenger in Darren White, it's not like Heinrich beat some third-tier nobody.

This race might be close, but I definitely believe that Heinrich will ultimately win by mid-single digits to low double digits.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
That's very true
Regarding Heinrich. The didn't solely get elected by geing on the ticket with Obama on top. He did beat a very top tier recruit in Bernadillo County Sherriff (which is the County Albuquerque is in) Darren White and I think White would be more of a challenger asthe man running now.

I agree with DGM, this race will be close, no doube but I have definetly agree Heinrich will win by mid single digits.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Correct, and not only that, I for a long time thought White would win even with Obama coattails......
It wasn't until very late, after Labor Day or maybe not till after the financial collapse, that I started feeling like Heinrich was going to beat White.  White really was an A-list nominee and a great pick for that district.  I was really worried about that one.

And frankly I'd be MORE worried than I am right now if White opted for a rematch.  I think he'd be a lot stronger than Barela right now and it would be much scarier.  As it is, I'm skeptical of the SUSA poll and seriously doubt Heinrich ends up actually losing.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It does tend to confirm the relative quality of the NM GOP
They do seem sharper than the GOP in most other states (with the obvious exception of landmine Mullins). We're fortunate that the quality of GOP candidates in every other state that I can think of -- is less.

(While Carly and Meg have decent chances to win, they have problems not shared by Martinez or even Pearce).

[ Parent ]
FWIW
PPP poll from February showed Heinrich leading 45-36. I'd imagine its tightened some in the last 5 months.  
Yes it has
About a 6-7 point flip in the SUSA poll and the internal by Heinrich's campaign.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Question
When you say: "which isn't good news for anyone" do you mean people from both parties or just us. I'm inclined to say us because what good news have you brought us this week.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
Yeah, it is good news for Republicans, after all n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Maybe
I'm not so sure due to the quirky polls SUSA have been releasing lately. I believe the race will be close but I definetly believe Heinrich will oull down like what I said below.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Let's put it this way
If Heinrich loses, the Republicans are probably on their way to gaining a majority in the House. With the caveat that election results can be a weird patchwork.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Good News?
I suspect it could be good news for John McCain, but I'd have to do some research first.
[ Parent ]
Martinez coattails?
Susana Martinez's presence across the GOP ticket is likely to boost Hispanic turnout. Will Hispanic Martinez voters also punch the card for an Anglo Republican congressional candidate? If they do, this is a real race to watch.

Also, I love the recruitment here. Go up against the most handsome man in Congress with.......another young, handsome guy. Smart move.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Go up against the most handsome man in Congress with.......another young, handsome guy. Smart move.
No not really.  

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Why not?
I read an article on CQ or Roll Call a while back on Paul Ryan (WI-01) that interviewed some of his constituents to try to determine the source of his popularity. What they found was a lot of old ladies gushing about what a pleasant, handsome man he was and "why would anyone ever want to run against this nice fellow."

I'm not saying voters are shallow. But looks matter. There's a reason they pay ungodly figures for haircuts. People may never admit it, but when unengaged they're making up their minds, it's very to pick the better looking one.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Yes I know looks matter
Believe me if the 1860 election was held today Abe Lincoln wouldn't of had a chance. But believe me not every single voters votes for a politican based on how he or she looks, if that's true more than half of Congress would be kicked out. Plus Ryan comes from a very conservative district so even if she didn't say looks she would of said they liked him because of his stances on abortion or the federal budget.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Speak for yourself
I gave money to Stephanie Herseth and Gabbi Giffords just because of looks.

I'm superficial like that.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
Paul Ryan???
He's not really that good looking.  
[ Parent ]
He's alright looking
But no Martin Heinrich. Ryan's eyes creep the hell out of me and one time he grew a full beard a while back and reminded me of the Brawny Man.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
No they won't, they'll split their tickets and vote Democratic downballot, just like...
...I've been speculating could happen in Nevada.  I can see Sandoval, purposely or inadvertently, driving up Hispanic turnout to some degree, and those same voters will vote for Harry Reid.  They're not voting for Sharron Angle.

If Martinez drives up Hispanic turnout, downballot Anglo GOPers will suffer, not benefit.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The Gubernatorial race is going to produce some *weird* results
Denish is from Hobbes (Lea County) one of the most Republican parts of the state, but Martinez is from Las Cruces, the only real base of Democratic support in southern NM. Normally a Democrat couldn't win the state if they lost in Dona Ana county, but Denish can make up for it by performing well in Hobbes and Roswell.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Well
Scott Brown beats them all (jk!)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Until Barela goes out and poses half-nude for Cosmo lol.


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
If were talking men
Carte Goodwin wins, if its women, Michele Bachmann wins! (as long as her mouth is closed and she's not smiling!)  
[ Parent ]
My girlfriend insists it's Heinrich
As for me, I like Bachmann, but Herseth Sandlin takes the prize!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Depends
on the hair color. When its blonde, yes, when its brown, no.  
[ Parent ]
Sandlin
is definitely hot, I will not deny it but Gabby Gifford all the way.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Bachmann would be alright
If she didn't have eyes that reminded you of a possessed zombie. But alright for a 54 year old. But I have to say Stephanie Herseth Sandlin takes the prize for the women and Aaron Schock for the GOP.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Just
watched one of Herseth Sandlin's ads. She looked hotter before than she does now. (Maybe its the hair color)



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
Changed her hair. First it was brunette, then brunette with blonde streaks and now it's all blonde. Looks very good.


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I disagree
I think she is a lot hotter now than when she was a brunette.  
[ Parent ]
She still looks very good
But i'm inclined to agree with you.

And if James and David say were off topic I would disagree because Heinrich was voted one of the hottest men in Congress and were having a discussion about that. Plus I don't know how much there is to talk about in this poll.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
We
probably are a bit off topic but this is such a bi partisan fun thing to talk about and it is semi relevant like you say.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
This is bi-partisan fun I have to agree
It's always good when Democrats and Republicans come together to discuss who's the hottest member of Congress but it's semi-relevant.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Shhh..
Its OK, they're sleeping. If they bring it up as being off-topic, we'll just tell them how good they look.  
[ Parent ]
I like your thinking Sir.


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Nice ad
I think the ad was very well done. Hopefully she can blanket South Dakota with it.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
OMG
I assume you are kidding. Michelle Bachmann is not bad for her age but she is far from the hottest. Gabby Gifford is probably the hottest, although there are a lot of other contenders. I would not put Bachmann in the top ten. Man someone should do a diary on this. JK.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Gillibrand
isn't that bad looking either.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Especially
since she lost the weight.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Cut her some slack
Women had a baby awhile back. Takes awhile for a women to lose that weight. Plus I give her credit for want to be a mom in her early 40's.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Fair
I agree with GOPVOTER that she was hot before she lost the weight.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
She's amazingly hot
Since she lost the weight.  I thought she was hot before then. Now, she's even hotter.  
[ Parent ]
Don't forget about Loretta Sanchez.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think her sister is better looking.


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Gillibrand is easily the hottest Senator, no doubt. Also good-looking when they were younger...
...were Landrieu and Lincoln--with the latter, we're talking in her single, "Blanche Lambert" days.

But Gillibrand is a major hottie and I can see her keeping her looks for a loooong time, it's just hard to picture her losing them.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
you're forgetting Maria Cantwell
   She's fine, and still good looking at over age fifty. Way better looking than Blanche Lambert ever was...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
She's in my top 10
I just said her for ya'll. I'd say Sandlin with blonde hair. I don't think that Giffords is all that hot. We need to bring this up in the weekly open thread.  
[ Parent ]
Yes were going to have to
I feel this is a discusion that needs to be discussed throughly since there are 535 members of Congress but obly many 20 percent of that 535 will be considered because the majority of Congress looks either homely (Rick Boucher) or people that looks like they died 20 years ago (Howard Coble).

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
OK, that was mean and macabre
but hilarious.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
but hilarious
Thank You.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
What about Senators Gillibrand and Cantwell?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well
Gillibrand is hot and has a nice voice. Cantwell, alright looking but certainly not the hottest.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I meant when Cantwell was a congresswoman 15 years ago.
She was my representative then.  I just saw some recent pictures, and I take her out of the running

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Uh well you didn't mention that
I knew Cantwell was a Rep before becoming a Senator 10 years ago but you didn't mention her when she was a Congressman.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I forgot to include it. I clicked "post" without thinking.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Alright, folks
I hope you enjoyed turning the comments section of this thread into the latest edition of SSP Cosmo, but I think it's time to move on to other topics...
[ Parent ]
Shouldn't
you be sleeping now? That was the plan! By the way James, if you were in Congress, you'd be at the top of the list!
:D  
[ Parent ]
Thank you
"looks" matter only when competitive candidates are matched side by side. Going further, IMO, is just plain prurient.
[ Parent ]
Barela is Hispanic too

[ Parent ]
Ah
My apologies.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I said this in previous comments
But SUSA is definitely understating the Hispanic vote in this poll (a lot like they did in that 2008 August poll), plus Barela's only real strength is that he's Hispanic (the NM GOP has definitely done itself a favor by nominating some Hispanic candidates in the state, they simply can't afford to be blown out of the water among Hispanics).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Barela's only real strength is that he's Hispanic
^^^THIS.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
A 20% lower turnout rate for young voters, and a 40% shift in preference
is absurd.  This absurdity has occured in other SUSA polls this year which means it isn't a one time yip.  Worse it's a 33% drop in the sample compared to 2006.  There is no way to take such aggressively opinionated weighting seriously.
So what are you saying Tommy
Your thinking this poll is BS based on the methology SUSA is using?

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
They're Both Internal Polls
You'd have to naturally assume that it will mostly be biased towards the candidate who issued it. Of course, a number of other internal polls do show the candidate who issued it behind, albeit by only a few points or so.
[ Parent ]
The SUSA poll is an internal?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
My Bad
Didn't see the SUSA reference for Barela's poll there.
[ Parent ]
Couldn't this be because...
in general, in the summer months, college students are back at home, and so SurveyUSA is going to have a very hard time polling youth, especially in college towns?

NM-01 does contain the University of New Mexico, which is about as large as it gets for colleges in that state.

Not saying this accounts for everything we've seen in their... ah... interesting youth numbers, but let's wait and see how their youth numbers look come September.

[ Parent ]
Doubt it's much of a factor, plenty of college kids vote at home anyway......
When I've door-knocked, I've had plenty of young voters I couldn't reach post-Labor Day because they were at school and voting absentee or not at all.  It's reached the point that on my walk lists, every time I've got someone in their late teens or very early 20s, I assume they're off at school, and I'm almost always right.  And these people are registered to vote at their parents' homes.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I'm so glad to know you're here to tell us that every single poll released is wrong.

[ Parent ]
ROTFLMAO!!! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Since I don't do that, thanks for being rude
Maybe instead you'll actually read the polls and try to give them some thought.

Or better, maybe you could try and get the gears churning to explain and justify that aspect of the poll.

[ Parent ]
NM-01: Heinrich in Trouble? | 97 comments

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