Good news if true:
Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) has decided she will not run to replace Sen. Robert C. Byrd (D-W.Va.), three sources familiar with her plans said Tuesday night.
Capito was the favorite on the GOP side, and state legislators gained a concession in a special-election bill passed Monday that would have allowed her to run for both reelection and in the Senate race at the same time.
But, even with that fallback plan, sources tell The Fix that the she has opted not to run.
Wonder who they’ll put up against Joe “The Manchine” Manchin. While I know the GOP’s bench in West Virginia is notoriously weak, nonetheless it’ll be kind of amazing if they can’t make anything out of this opportunity in such a good year for them – especially in a state so implacably hostile to Obama and national Democrats. Anyhow, assuming Capito makes this official, we plan to rate this race as “Likely D.”
Someone (I think it was GOPVoter) said Manchin had to declare early and fast, get ahead of Capito to keep her from building ANY momentum on this. He did that, looks like it may have scared her off fast enough
I think this was the right read and congratulate you on the perception.
Cornyn is having at NRSC headquarters pray Manchin is the second coming of Martha Coakley. Luckily (hopefully) Manchin’s going to work his butt off to earn the right to succeed Byrd.
She has several people close to her leak the news she is not running, then to get more attention and make people think those reports were wrong, announces she will announce her intentions at 10 AM. Makes you wonder if the reports were wrong, but you know they weren’t. I guess she’s gearing up for a 2011 gov run. http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Why in the world did the Republicans fight so hard for that exception then? They had to have advance knowledge of this.
Bravo Congresswoman, I am not saying this because I am a Democrat but I honestly believe Capito just made a wise decision. First off if she was the nominee she would make it more competitive but she may not even be the nominee, she still faces a primary. Byrd’s 06′ opponent who hates her all but indicated who will run regardless of whether she runs or not. He is a self funder who could go negative and did you know she is pro-choice, that is going to cost her some votes no matter what. Assuming she wins the primary she would be out of funds running against the loved Governor with a ton more money then her and people would still be upset over the primary and she would be crushed. Sure it is a free pass but it is not likely she is going to win and I do not buy the argument that running statewide and losing helps a whole lot. If you are an absolute underdog who shocks everyone by running a close race then yeah but not if people will expect you to do well like her so losing would not help her at all. Plus if she runs now she depletes her bank account so she will have to start fresh if she runs for Governor in 2012 or with less of a nest egg for a 2014 run. This was a smart move and I have no doubt she still has a future statewide but this was not her year and she recognized it.
This would be a last minute thing, granted, she could get lots of support from GOP donors, but most people don’t want to run in a statewide race against a strong opponent on such short notice.
well I guess I won’t rest easy until it comes from the lips of the lady herself, apparently tomorrow.
Quite a shocker, but in a good way.
Because of two issues; abortion, and cap and trade. West Virginia is too reliably supportive of its Democrats once they take conservative positions on those two issues. I have no doubt both Rahall and Olivero will win easily in November to prove this. Democrats have been unable to knock off Capito, who represents what might be arguably, the most the Democratic district in the state, due to poor recruiting, missed opportunities, and her own very moderate, centrist image; in other words the very thing that had John Raese foaming at the mouth, promising to primary her if he decided to run.
I wouldn’t be worried about this guy if I were Democrats, yes he needs to be fought, and Manchin can’t and won’t sit on his laurels, but Raese is already a 2 time loser, with high unfavorables from his 2006 race against Byrd, where he spent 1.5 million of his money, plus significant resources from donations, to get 33.7% of the vote. He’s not that rich, I mean I’d put 2-3 million at the upper limit of what he could throw away in this run.
On another note, the combined age of those two candidates would be 123 years, another sign of how in West Virginia your political career doesn’t really get started until you hit your 60s, which is earlier than Hawaii, where you wait until 70 just for good measure.
I bet Capito never runs for anything more than her house seat. There’s always going to be someone competitive to run against in WV in a statewide race. I doubt she’ll ever even bother with Senator (unless something happens to Rockefeller healthwise), and I wouldn’t be surprised if she passed on a Gov race too.
I’ve never heard her have any aspirations to move up and certainly none where she’d have to fight Byrd, Rockefeller or Manchin to get there.
To me, she’s the candidate people love to talk about, but I think she likes the attention. Heck, she could announce she’s running for governor in 2011 or 2012 beginning today and get the first mover advantage in announcing and fundraising…just like Manchin just did. But I doubt she will.
http://www.dailymail.com/News/…
She’s not running.
Congratulations, Senator Manchin.
I said last night it had to be Raese because Cornyn mentioned him last week and last night he said his second choice is someone who ran statewide before. I said it wasn’t Ireland b/c he said someone who ran not won statewide before. I should note it could also be Bob Adams, who runs the League of American Voters, as he has lost a race for Treasurer in WV.
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
He’s 95 years old, served from 1959 to 1977 in congress, served as SoS for 16 years from 1985 until 2001, and lost to Mike Oliverio in 2004 for SoS Dem primary. He’s the one who started an anti-Oliverio PAC. He’s a progressive. My advice: Support him the same way ya’ll did Bill Halter.
Sen. Minority Whip Clark Barnes. http://www.rttnews.com/Content…
I guess in Manchin, the Dems have their own John Hoeven.