Google Ads


Site Stats

June Party Committee Fundraising Roundup

by: DavidNYC

Wed Jul 21, 2010 at 8:27 AM EDT


There's a tuppeny hapenny millionaire - looking for a fourpenny one. Here are the June fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (May numbers are here):

Committee June Receipts June Spent Cash-on-Hand CoH Change Debt
DCCC $9,015,455 $3,859,551 $33,783,725 $5,155,904 $0
NRCC $9,153,412 $4,132,420 $17,039,526 $5,020,992 $0
DSCC $7,100,000 $3,100,000 $21,000,000 $3,400,000 $0
NRSC $4,000,000 $2,500,000 $19,700,000 $1,600,000 $0
DNC $6,464,411 $9,980,695 $10,974,764 ($3,516,285) $3,878,168
RNC $5,907,897 $7,593,539 $10,895,695 ($1,685,642) $2,027,970
Total Dem $22,579,866 $16,940,246 $65,758,489 $5,039,619 $3,878,168
Total GOP $19,061,309 $14,225,959 $47,635,221 $4,935,350 $2,027,970

Just a quick note on the Dem vs. GOP cash disparities: In March, it was $21.5 mil, then $18.6 mil, then $18.0 mil, and now it's down to $16.1 mil $18.1 mil.

UPDATE: I made a mistake and misreported the cash-on-hand totals for both the DSCC and NRSC. Both sets of numbers were in fact higher than I reported, the DSCC moreso than the NRSC, meaning the Dems added more net cash overall.
DavidNYC :: June Party Committee Fundraising Roundup
Tags: , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
June Party Committee Fundraising Roundup | 50 comments
There are new reports that Steele
did indeed try to hide RNC debts to inflate their campaign income: http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
question
I notice that this month there is a huge gap between Receipts-Spent=X and CoH change, why is this ? (22.5-16.9=5.6 but Coh change is 1.5?)

Also does anyone know how the amount of fines are determined by the FEC? I only ask because I'd like to know the full damage done to the RNC from this accounting scandal, im sure it will be more then the 7 mil after fines, resignations and maybe people asking for donations back

Same Question
I had the same question re the DSCC.  7.1 raised 3.1 spent but yet a negative $100,000 move in their COH.  What am I missing cuz this doe not make sense to me.
[ Parent ]
CQ reports other CoH numbers...
here: http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

33, living in Germany  
[ Parent ]
I screwed up somehow
I am fixing.
[ Parent ]
Don't forget to fix the totals as well


28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
DSCC / NRCC numbers seem off
That is the COH change does match the difference in receipts and spending.  Nor is it even close.  What accounts for this?

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
NRCC = joke
Still getting doubled up in cash on hand by the D-Trip with less than 15 weeks remaining.  Every time I bring this up, I keep getting told "oh wait another month, wait another month, the surge is coming!"  or "well, wait for the corporations to bail them out!"  Well, they finally have a decent month in June only for the D-Trip to respond and match them over the same time period.  

The D-Trip is going to be spending like mad all over the country at this rate, $33 million worth plus future receipts.  With only half the financial resources of the D-Trip, the NRCC and the republicans are going to have a very difficult time allotting the resources in such a way that will allow them to take the house.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

yes, but
at the same time the dems were significantly outspent by the RNC in 2006, I think the extra $ is great news and all but i also try not to read to much into it
[ Parent ]
COH in 2nd Quater
All but two of the Republicans that went down in flames in 2006 had a COH lead at this point against their opponents.  COH does not matter if the environment is toxic unless the lead is obscene.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Unless the Dems use the money
to give people jobs (campaigning???) rather than spending it on TV ads and high priced consulting.

LOL

[ Parent ]
Diary topic for someone with more free time than me
go over the 30 Seats that flipped GOP -> Dem in 2006 and check the Q2 financial disparities. (2:1, 3:1, 7:1, etc) as well as many of those who were closely challenged and held on what their COH disparities were at this point.See if there is a correlation. Compare to this year's Democratic class rated by Cook as toss up or Lean Dem.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
It would be interesting
Would it be relevant given the changes to campaign finance law, particularly the challenges to the millionaire's amendment as well as the SC's removal of limit's on Corporate/Interest Group/Outsider spending?
[ Parent ]
Not from 2006, but 2008, so its probably a good starting point
http://spreadsheets.google.com...

This has all of the fundraising data from 2008 (taken from Open Secrets), I haven't correlated it based on competitiveness via Cook or anyone else, but here are some takeaways from this data:

1. No one who raised less than 100K won, period.

2. Even when they lost, incumbents generally outraised their challengers (though they were more likely to lose if they were outraised).

3. Of the open seat races, winners for the most part outraised losers (there are exceptions to this, the most prominent was AL-02 between Bobby Bright and Jay Love).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
How did people resist the urge
To vote for a candidate named Jay Love?  Sounds like someone I almost have to vote for, for any position :-)
[ Parent ]
Bright vs. Love
both have pretty uplifting names. it's like a battle of the care bears or something.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I write LOL alot
But its beena  long time since I actually laughed out loud reading something on here.  Thanks god everyone else in my office is a wacko too so it didn't seem to weird to hear me laughing about care bears.
[ Parent ]
Ditto to rtw72777, and I one-up him with ROTFLMAO!!! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Me too!
BRIGHT Heart vs. LOVE-a-lot! (Funny thing, Love-a-Lot is a girl!)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Yeah it's #2 I'm most interested in
Incumbents who lost, did they have 2:1 advantages, did any have 4:1, 5:1, or 7:1 or greater advantages? Those who had less than 2:1 advantages, what were the odds that they survived?

The reason this interests me is so many of our incumbent Dems this year are dominating so thoroughly in the cash, many with 4:1 advantages, some were at 7:1. Makes me wonder what the real odds are at losing.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
If I remember correctly...
It was mostly close. The Democratic Party had far more resources on their hands then the Republicans did, and the netroots were out in full force for challengers against incumbents. On the top of my head, I can't think of an incumbent that had a whole load of money and still lost.  

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
Looking back on the spreadsheet
The two that stick out are Jon Porter and John English, who outraised their opponents by a little over a million dollars, but still went down.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
You mean PHIL English (who lost to Dahlkemper) (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I'm going through it now, but my number #2 assumption seems to be pretty off
I've looked at 12 races where an incumbent lost, and so far half of the incumbents were outraised by their challengers. The pattern I'm seeing though is that the incumbents who lost had challengers who were able to be at least somewhat close in fundraising (so far I've only seen one losing incumbent who had a 2-1 fundraising advantage, Bill Jefferson of LA-02, but there were special circumstances and Jefferson only raised $350K anyways).

When I'm done, I can tell you more, but losing incumbents, at least in 2008, generally had challengers who had very competitive fundraising.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Ok, here's what I've got:
 
Losing incumbents Incumbent Money   Challenger Money   Incumbent edge
               
CO-04 Musgrave 2.86   Markey 2.89   -0.03
CT-04 Shays 3.77   Himes 3.8   -0.03
FL-08 Keller 1.62   Grayson 3.37   -1.75
FL-16 Mahoney 3.04   Rooney 1.62   1.42
FL-24 Feeney 2.14   Kosmas 2.11   0.03
ID-01 Sali 1.18   Minnick 2.61   -1.43
KS-02 Boyda 1.73   Jenkins 1.76   -0.03
LA-02 Jefferson 0.35   Cao 0.18   0.17
LA-06 Cazayoux 2.74   Cassidy 1.26   1.48
MI-07 Walberg 2.11   Schauer 2.3   -0.19
MI-09 Knollenberg 3.77   Peters 2.55   1.22
NV-03 Porter 2.95   Titus 1.86   1.09
NY-29 Kuhl 1.5   Massa 2.15   -0.65
NC-08 Hayes 3.77   Kissell 1.5   2.27
OH-01 Chabot 2.35   Driehaus 1.49   0.86
PA-03 English 2.66   Dahlkemper 1.16   1.5
TX-22 Lampson 2.3   Olson 2.41   -0.11
VA-02 Drake 2.04   Nye 1.36   0.68
VA-05 Goode 1.8   Perriello 1.87   -0.07

I found that the total that these losing incumbents raised was $44.7M, while the successful challengers raised a total of $38.3M (or a disparity of $6.4M). Ten of the incumbents outraised their opponents. Six incumbents outraised their opponents by at least $1M (I would like to say that 2 of those incumbents, Don Cazayoux and Tim Mahoney, had special circumstances so their fundraising may not have even mattered all that much). Incidentally, all of these races, with one exception (LA-02) where both the incumbent and the successful challenger each raised at least $1M.

This is the big takeaway, with the exception of Cao, all challengers had raised at least $1M, and generally were able to stay fairly close to the incumbent.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Good work, thanks. But the two races I would love to see numbers for are...
...IN-08 in 2006, where Ellsworth crushed Hostetler, and GA-10 in 1994, where Norwood crushed Don Johnson.

Those are the two races with results most analogous to the new SUSA VA-05 poll.

I presume IN-08 2006 had a shocking disparity in Ellsworth's favor, since Hostetler is always a poor fundraiser and in particular did nothing at all that year.

But I have no recollection or idea what the fundraising numbers were in GA-10 in 1994.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Can't speak for GA-10 in 1994
But, via Opensecrets, Hostettler raised $586K while Ellsworth raised $1.76M (and people were asking why I really wanted the Republicans to nominate Hostettler this year).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I love it this is very helpful!
I would love to see this for 2006 more though, more similar the years are, one side looking to flip control and being a "change" election for the "out" party in a mid term.

Great work.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Well, I'm hoping to do a 2006 one too
The problem is that it's really tedious to gather the data. Still, hopefully I'll do that at some point.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Of Course COH Disparity Will Decrease
The whole idea of having more cash than the other side is to spend it. By the end of the cycle, both sides will have burned just about all of what they have and the disparity will be close to zero.

The real issue is whether the cash advantage is being utilized effectively.

I don't see NRCC getting involved in IA-03
The NRCC a huge cash on hand disparity and many districts to play in that seem more favorable than IA-03. Meanwhile, Leonard Boswell has seven times Brad Zaun's cash on hand, and that's before Bill Clinton comes to Des Moines next week to raise money for Boswell.

Some Democratic incumbents are going to lose despite outspending their opponents, but there's no doubt in my mind the NRCC is going to leave winnable seats on the table for lack of resources to compete.

Since there's no daily digest for this, I put it here: FL-Gov: PPP has Sink on top now!......
PPP poll here:  http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Sink leads Scott and Chiles 36-30-13, and she leads McCollum and Chiles 37-23-14.  Undecideds remain high, in the 20s.

Sink largely unknown, at 24-22 favorability with a majority having no opinion.

But Scott's favorability is a bad 23-41, and McCollum's a horrific 16-51.

No GOP primary numbers, but here's a clue:  among Republicans, McCollum's favorability underwater at 27-40, and Scott's a positive but still very tepid 34-30.  So Scott probably is winning.

Indies hate both, giving Scott a 26-40 negative favorability, and McCollum a horrific 9-57 that is virtually identical to the 8-59 Democrats give him!

Given the late (August) primary, it's going to be hard for the Republican nominee to recover his public image for November.  I think Scott might just have the nomination in the bag, given all recent polling, and his path to the governorship will have to be in attacking Sink.

Sink has run a weak campaign from what I've read, and I hope she can take advantage of this opportunity that has fallen into her lap like matta from the sky.  Pick some signature issue to run on, make herself likeable personally, run against Republican state leadership in light of the economy, and make sure she has the money she needs to get her message out.  If Sink can win this, it makes redistricting a whole new ballgame for us for the 2012 House races.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

amazing that a statewide official like Sink
is still so unknown. I hope she can pull this one off.
[ Parent ]
Downballot statewide electeds are ALWAYS unknown. Think about Iowa, desmoinesdem......
How many Iowa voters do you think have any opinion at all of State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, whose position is analogous to Alex Sink's position of Florida CFO?  And Florida is a much bigger state whose sheer size makes downballot elected officials less well-known.

Who in Iowa for that matter has any opinion of David Vaudt, Michael Mauro, or Bill Northey?

Tom Miller is well-known and very popular simply because he's been A.G. for 32 of the last 36 years and ran for Governor once.  He's the only downballot elected in Iowa with any name recognition.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Shocking poll.
  Rick Scott might have saved this election for us.  I don't think I have ever seen a major-party candidate with poorer favorables than McCollum.  What did Scott do to him?!

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Rick Scott HAS saved our chances, Sink was sunk without him. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Sink was sunk?
Are we all comedians today?

[ Parent ]
Campaign slogan
"Send Rick Scott down the Sink!"

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
perfect
you better be suggesting that to her immediately

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Scott
probably flooded the airwaves with attack ads hitting McCollum on immigration and other issues. McCollum's fundraising wasn't enough to keep up with Scott's money advantage.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
No "probably," that's exactly what happened......
Scott just pummeled McCollum on the air, and McCollum was slow to respond and now is going broke trying to keep up.

The best thing for Sink at this point might just be if McCollum finds a way to pull off an upset win in the primary, as he's so badly damaged and cash-poor he won't be able to fight into November.  But then a McCollum upset win probably would just give him renewed momentum, these things are never static, so my projection likely is flawed.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I have to say, I'm feeling pretty confident...
Scott is an absolutely terrible candidate. The ads write themselves. And while McCollum might recover a bit if he gets the nomination, I think he's honestly too far gone at this point.  
[ Parent ]
any new word on deadbeat House Dems?
Even though the DCCC has a CoH advantage, that's no excuse for Dems in safe seats to stiff the committee on dues.
RNC finds $7m+ in unreported debts?
Forgive me if I'm late to the party here and this has already been noted, but I didn't see it:

The Washington Times reported yesterday
http://www.washingtontimes.com...
that the RNC has discovered that it failed to report over $7 million in earlier (April and May) debt to the FEC, and are amending their filings as a result.

Not sure whether that affects the total debt number for the current month or what...?  Anyway, it's not good news for Michael Steele.  It looks like he was deliberately hiding some bills from the treasurer of his organization.

If substantiated by others, this could REALLY get Steele booted.......
He was never going to get the boot for his neverending rhetorical gaffes, but this kind of thing if true smacks of true corruption.  That's the line he must not cross, and if he has, he's done sooner rather than later.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It could
Steele is truly the gift that keeps on giving. If he stays on as RNC chair we keep getting stories and gaffes but if he steps down we get a nice two weeks of stories regarding "GOP infighting, Steele fights back,  Steele accuses racism ect.". Steele has already said that he will not go down quietly. Please let that be true.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
It is early enough in the cycle for the GOP to recover
from Steele quitting, but it could make them look as inept as the Democrats have appeared since being elected.  (Why cant you pass HCR?  Where are the jobs?)
[ Parent ]
Hardly any voters care about Steele or even recognize his name, but this can matter in the midterms IF...
...it becomes a major story around Labor Day and dominates the news for awhile.  It's a distraction from other topics in the news, and it makes Republicans as an entire party look bad.  After all, they elected this guy to be their Chairman.

Of course, Republicans can mitigate and even erase any electoral fallout simply by condemning Steele and throwing him completely under the bus.  And Steele is sufficiently friendless within the party establishment that I think they'd do that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
We also forget
If this has Steele's fingerprints on it its not like people won't think "Michael Steele, no he's to smart to have tried to get away with this".  

I mean the guy has been a trainwreck, its not like lying and scheming would be so beyond his current perception to people.

If the RNC has debt, where is the Repub $$$ going this cycle committee wise.  Aren't Dems ahead in all committee's in funds raised if we subtract the accrued $7M debt out of RNC funds raised?

[ Parent ]
Schumer has more CoH than the DSCC
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

He should give at least half of it to the DSCC, surely it is needed more in places like IL or OH...

33, living in Germany  

June Party Committee Fundraising Roundup | 50 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox