Zata|3 (D) for Talk Business (7/17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 32
John Boozman (R): 57
Trevor Drown (I): 3
John Gray (G): 2
Undecided: 6
Mike Beebe (D-inc): 50
Jim Keet (R): 41
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.7%)
This is the first non-Rasmussen poll of the race following the June runoff, and while it's certainly a little gaudy for John Boozman, I have every reason to believe this is going to be a painful race to watch. Somewhat frustratingly, Zata3 doesn't provide party breakdowns (PDF). I'll also note that their sample is older and more male than the 2008 exit polls, though of course, 2010 ain't 2008.
Mike Beebe's numbers also stand out - not because they're terrible or anything, but because pretty much everyone had him figured as unassailable, even in a year like this. Indeed, PPP has regularly found him to be one of the most popular governors in the nation, a pretty remarkable feat given how badly almost every incumbent is performing. So it's possible that these numbers are a little too good for Keet, a former state legislator who hasn't held office since 1996 and who's been absolutely swamped on the fundraising front. I definitely would like to see confirmation before concluding this race might be competitive.
