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WV-Sen: Special Election on Tap... With a Safety Net for Capito?

by: James L.

Mon Jul 19, 2010 at 7:43 PM EDT


Gov. Joe Manchin has apparently struck a deal with state legislators that will set a special election for Robert Byrd's Senate seat this fall:

Under the draft agreement lawmakers were shown at about 5 p.m., voters would go to the polls for an Aug. 28 for a primary to choose party nominees and then again Nov. 2 for a general election. Candidates who have already filed for an office would be allowed to run in the special Senate election. The provision would allow someone like Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, the Republican's most prominent candidate, to run for reelection in the House but also take a shot at serving out Robert Byrd's unexpired term, which ends in Jan. 2013. The deal ended an impasse between the House and Senate that began Saturday.

Letting Capito have a free crack at this race is utterly baffling, and I hope it doesn't prove to be a too-cute-by-half move that ultimately backfires. Sure, Joe "The Manchine" Manchin will be formidable in any West Virginia election, but one Martha Coakley wasn't supposed to lose, either...
James L. :: WV-Sen: Special Election on Tap... With a Safety Net for Capito?
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WV-Sen: Special Election on Tap... With a Safety Net for Capito? | 111 comments
Coakley was supposed to lose...
In a world where candidates and campaigns matter, the world we should all want to live in, Coakley was supposed to lose.
No one was saying that
In October or November of 2009.
[ Parent ]
Yes they were
Not enough people though.
[ Parent ]
Please find me one link
To anyone even remotely credible who was saying Coakley might lose in November.
[ Parent ]
Ach
I'm sorry - James is right. This is a total derail. Forget I asked. This thread is about WVa, not MA.
[ Parent ]
I sensed a Coakley downfall just before polling began to actually reflect it
Granted, it wasn't November.

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Her campaign was in full failure mode yet
It was till months out.  And everyone saw how awful it was.  If you didn't hear people saying she should lose, it might have been tempered by people still sad over Kennedy's death.  But the people and the comments were out there.
[ Parent ]
Wasn't in full failure mode I meant <n/t>

[ Parent ]
Coakley was actually well-respected here
Before Kennedy died, I had heard some rumors that she would try to primary Deval Patrick in the governor's race this year, as his numbers were awful then. Then the seat opened up, and she started the Democratic primary as a favorite.

What we found out was that people liked the idea of Martha Coakley--a seemingly sophisticated, female, statewide office-holder--much better than the candidate herself. The Dem primary was so sleepy (perhaps because of the holidays) and there was so little apparent ideological difference between the candidates that she won on the basis of superior name recognition from her AG campaign and a couple of high-profile trials she had prosecuted. Once she actually had to go out and campaign, people learned what a lot of you already knew--she wasn't that impressive of a candidate.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Shame on us
I was never impressed but quite honestly didn't care that much (I know, I know).  To me it was always a short-term appointment and my leanings were not always with Kennedy nor with the liberal wing, and since Brown would be in the minority he couldn't do much harm for the time he was in office.

For the liberals and people who were strong supporters of HCR and liberal causes, shame on them moreso.  Really, there wasn't much impressive about her.  With so many other available options, it should have been a more meaningful primary fight...

[ Parent ]
Alright, enough
This thread is about West Virginia -- let's get back on track. I'm sorry I ever mentioned Coakley's name.
[ Parent ]
You didnt ;)

[ Parent ]
Oh I spose you did in the post

[ Parent ]
Coakley was a terrible candidate at every stage, Manchin is not
Capito will be tempted to take the free shot, but there is a point where a loss is so large it is too humiliating to stand.  20 points may be the threshold, but for sure if she loses 2-1 that will hurt her chances in the future.

In any case, Manchin will win.

[ Parent ]
Discredit Capito
Maybe they are trying to discredit her for a future Governor run if she loses so badly.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Doubt it
Is there anyone else in the Repulican stable in West Virginia?  Cecil Underwood was pretty much it in the last 50 years wasn't he?
[ Parent ]
Betty Ireland
But she had horrible numbers in the Ras poll and is unlikely to come out of retirement anyway.

So it's pretty much either Capito or Generic R.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Never heard of her
But I lvoe the name.  I feel like she should have a cooking show on PBS or something.
[ Parent ]
Seriously.
She and Betty White could be bffls.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
She'd so win
If Betty White endorsed her.  
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia has nothing
about Betty White's political affiliation. :(

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I
seem to remember hearing somewhere that she is gay friendly which is a good sign she is a member of team blue.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
She called
Palin a "crazy bitch". Kinda funny:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxL7MKsGoPo
Not kinda, VERY funny!
[ Parent ]
damn, I wanna see it.
stupid China, blocking Youtube! :(
also, according to Wikipedia, Betty White is from Chicagoland, where I go to school. represent!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
You want me to tell you everything?

[ Parent ]
that would be nice, thanks.
I hope I remember this when I'm home in 3 weeks.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'll remind you
when you get back. ;)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Much
appreciated. ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
One
Former SOS Betty Ireland.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
She
is getting on there in years, if she wants to make a comeback she will have to do it this cycle or next. I know this is West Virginia the land of no age limits, but still I have trouble seeing someone running for a new job past age 72.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Ironically she'd be a "youngin'"...
in WV that is.
[ Parent ]
WV is like Hawaii
Fossils still roam the earth and get elected in both places.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
It works for them though
Its hard to argue that seniority hasn't benefited WV.  Is there any type of landmark, building, etc where there isn't "Robert Byrd Memorial" attached to it?
[ Parent ]
Inouye
was elected to the House at 34 (upon statehood in 1959) and then to the Senate at 38.

It's not that Hawaii elects "fossils;" it elects them young and keeps them there forever.

[ Parent ]
64
She is 64 as she was born in 1946.  She is young enough to be Byrd's child, which means by West Virginia standards she is a youngster.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Your right
I was sure she was 68 for some reason. Yeah she has a few more miles on her if she wants a comeback.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
John Raese
Business man who almost beat Rockefeller in 1984 and almost beat Arch Moore. I think he's running, and will probably primary Capito if he runs. He can't stand the Moore's after he lost to Arch. He's a self-funder and if Capito doesn't run, I would bet he's the nominee.  
[ Parent ]
You left out the part of Raese's bio
that included the 33.7% he collected in the 2006 Senate race...
[ Parent ]
Probably a good figure against Byrd
Byrd was so loved in that state I would not be shocked if it was renamed Byrdland.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but don't forget
Republicans tried very hard that cycle to paint Byrd as a peacenik liberal freakshow who strayed too far from his conservative roots. In a more polarized environment, I don't think a 34% showing against Byrd is particularly indicative of much at all.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
To me the race is Generic R vs Generic D if Manchin goes into the Senate.  This always favors the Dems in WV, regardless of which person runs on the R side.
[ Parent ]
Well yeah
But against Rockefeller that was an impressive showing. He didn't spend as much money since it was considered an unwinnable race as he can and will this year.  
[ Parent ]
He spent $3 million in 2006
And saying that his performance in 1984 was impressive is rather like saying Roxanne Conlin's 47% showing in the 1982 Iowa gubernatorial race is impressive. It'd be great if all those voters from 30 years ago would be reanimated and allowed to vote, but this isn't Chicago.
[ Parent ]
So you admit it!
Voter fraud...the Dems ace in the hole in a tight election. Yeah, i misremember Raese's 2006 total wrong. I mixed it with his 1984 total.

I j/k.  

[ Parent ]
Oh wait
The j/k goes with the voter fraud part.  
[ Parent ]
Manchin
One thing I want to see clarified, hopefully sometime in the future by PPP: Does the public believe the charges of some legislators, some high profile Democrats, one who is running for gov in 2012, that this special session was all a power grab by Manchin? Also, is this ugly session a sign of political weakness among members of his own party?  
[ Parent ]
LOL
If it was passed to give Capito, the main Republican in WV, a chance to run without having to resign, how in GOD's name could it be considered a power grab.

Is the election somehow tilted towards Manchin illegally?  Are only registered Dem's allowed to vote or something?

Seriously....

[ Parent ]
He said
Manchin's original law gave Manchin and Tennet (sp?) too much power over a special election with not enough guidelines. And this is a powerful Democrat, the chair of the Judiciary committee IIRC, who is an announced candidate for gov in 2012 (kinda early, huh?)  
[ Parent ]
You probably have to announce at birth in WV
Then you have 60 years to put your campaign staff together.

Still, I just don't see how the issue could be framed that way.  Even if it was, if Manchin is as popular as polling points out, does it matter?

Popular people get away with everything, we all learned that in high school if not earlier lol.

[ Parent ]
Hahahahaha
Popular people get away with everything, we all learned that in high school if not earlier lol.

I feel like I need to archive this quote and use it in a book some day or something.

[ Parent ]
LOL
No need to cite me either, I'm sure I heard it on TV at some point and just plagiarized it.
[ Parent ]
Then you shouldnt run for CO Gov.
unless you get paid 300k $...

33, living in Germany  
[ Parent ]
I recant
Its my original work and I wish to be paid.
[ Parent ]
Oh horseshit, all the WV GOP cared about was not losing Capito's House seat......
They wanted a LBJ law, that's it, and nothing else mattered to them.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Hard not laugh
"Oh horseshit"?  I feel like we're on the front porch of an old homestead on a dirt road somewhere when I hear that.  LOL
[ Parent ]
Well, only registered voters in WV are allowed to vote
So I guess it might as well be "only registered Dems," if you think about it.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
LOL touche my friend

[ Parent ]
WV Lt. Governor
I am sure the Lt. Governor (whose also the State Senate President) had something to do with this.  He obviously would have a leg up if the seat became vacant.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Manichi is already proving to be a terrible candidate...
...by trying as hard as he can to throw the seat to the opposition.
[ Parent ]
Manchin... sorry for the typo... n/t

[ Parent ]
Manichi
I kinda like it.  
[ Parent ]
In Japanese
Man'ichi literally means 1/10,000, you use it to refer to a very unlikely but theoretically possible situation.

In this case I guess it would mean him losing to Capito?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I hope so!
On an unrelated note, does anyone else think Capito looks like Greta Van Sussteren?  
[ Parent ]
Baffling
I don't understand why the Dem-controlled legislature would want to do this. I haven't heard this anywhere, but perhaps Rahall wants to run and finish his career as a Senator, then open the door for Manchin in 2012? Unless that happens, this is great news for the GOP, as it lets us run our best candidate with no risk.

Nevertheless, this is somewhere between Lean and Likely D for me.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Thats the only way it would pass
Was for them to give into Sen. Minority Leader Mike Hall's amendment to make this election legally a separate election from the November election (which I believe it should be) so Capito could run. Without that, they couldn't get enough Republican votes for it to pass with 2/3 necessary for the law to take effect immediately. I think he also has an ulterior motive. He lives in and represents parts of Capito's district. If she runs and wins, he might be at the top of the list to succeed her.  
[ Parent ]
Ah, I see now
As always, you are on top of things!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Thank you
You don't know me in real life though.  
[ Parent ]
LOL
I guess SSP doesn't exist in real life?

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
No
This is all a dream world. None of this really exists.  
[ Parent ]
Ah yes
reminds me of this particular episode of Star Trek DS9.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Mmmhhhmmm
It all makes sense now.
[ Parent ]
I don't agree with anyone being given a safety net
It's tough luck if she'd have to give up her House seat in order to run for the Senate, no special treatment.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
I don't see any harm...
Quite honestly to me its more fair than any other solution.  What if it was a year in which Manchin was running for re-election?  What if he had to decide between the 2 and Capito would then be able to run for the seat Manchin didn't want (and likely be a VERY strong contender).  

Would we all be so anti-"safety net" then?

[ Parent ]
I could care less
I really could care less how many offices someone ran for.  If someone wants to run for State Rep, State Senator, Congressman, Senator, Governor, President and King of the World, I could care less.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Yes
It's craven regardless of who does it.

And after all, if Joe Biden had retired from the Senate rather than running at the same time he was running for VP, we wouldn't be seeing Senator Mike Castle coming around the bend.

[ Parent ]
It's not really uncommon
Joe Biden did it in '08. Kept his Senate seat in case things didn't go so well.
[ Parent ]
It's not just her
If not for the way the law had been written anyone who won a primary for any office in May would have been ineligible to run for Senate; hundreds of people were potentially affected.
[ Parent ]
I certianly hope that Manching isn't throwing the race...
...letting Capito slide in and then running against her in 2012.  That would be a stupid strategy on his part, but this whole special election charade has been incredibly stupid.  I wouldn't put it past him to do something dumb like that.
DO we know
Does Capito want to be Senator more than Governor?  Does she have a better track to either if Manchin weren't her opponent.

I mean she could simnply just keep her current job for forever and be happy with that if she wanted.  

[ Parent ]
Elected for life
West Virginia is one of those states that you get elected once and get elected for life afterwards.  

If she wants to be Governor, she could probably walk right into the Mansion.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
That's the question...
...but I'm not so sure it would be such a cakewalk for her.  Its not like Joe Manchin was some political superstar prior to winning the governor's race.  He was the SoS and was able to win even after the Dem predecessor was caught in scandal.  

I'm not sure Capito would ever be in a "walking into the mansion" position unless she ran against the formerly scandaled governor (Bob Wise).

[ Parent ]
Now
the question really is whether it will be a positive or negative for Moore-Capito to run. I am not so sure. I suppose she will not lose anything as she is guaranteed her house seat and it could give her higher name rec for a future statewide run in 2012 against Tamblin or an open seat in 2014 but she could damage her image if she runs a bad campaign. Then again there is always the wild chance she wins but I doubt it. If I was her I would probably stay put and run for Governor in 2012 or Senate in 2014, probably Senate if the Governs mansion is not open in 2012. She already has fairly good name rec and would really just be chancing damaging peoples opinion of her, plus she would be blowing all of her money. I suppose she could win but she would be the underdog and the Republicans would be spending money here when they have much better pickup opportunities elsewhere.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Do we have a good candidate running against her?
It'd be quite the argument as her House opponent to go, she isnt even campaigning for this race.
[ Parent ]
Nope
This woman, who has raised all of $15k, is the nominee.
[ Parent ]
She's a nun
So no, Sharron Angle. God is on HER side, not yours.  
[ Parent ]
This is just what I hate

After the appointment we have a weak incumbent what will not run for the reelection, and we wish the minimum risk for Manchin, the strong democratic candidate, when he must run for an open seat.

I would not change the law now, with an open process for the succession of a death senator, because all the people is looking now if the changes are for favore to the democrats, and that mean the people is looking now if the changes are for favore to Manchin. Manchin is in risk of appear as a person what promote new laws what favore him.

The best for Manchin's image would be follow the old law. I think try to change the law now is worse than appoint himself for the senate seat.

If Manchin would appoint himself for the senate seat, now we would have an strong incumbent senator running for the reelection when the special election comes, and an incumbent governor running for governor when the election comes. Moore-Capito would have an incumbent for both offices for the next decade at least.

And I think with low cost, because the people was ready for understand what Manchin was the strongest candidate for the appointment.

Abgin,
do you know the success rate of appointing yourself to the Senate? VERY LOW. It would be downright stupid for Manchin to have appointed himself. He stands a much better chance running as a Governor than an incumbent Senator. Also Carte Goodwin is a very good seat warmer who will provide no controversy and holds a future in politics, he is not a weak appointee at all. They had to change the law as it was the only way it could have passed the state legislator with the required two thirds of the vote (H/T GOPVOTER).  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Quite honestly
The past appointments is a small sample and there are few if any similar situations amongst them.  I think there would be no flap here for Manchin.  Ironically, I bet there could have been a chance that it would have hurt the Lt Gov running to replace him more than Manchin.
[ Parent ]
I
am not trying to say he could not have won if he appointed himself but why chance it? I stand fully behind my statement that he looks better running as Governor than Senator. Also I really do think he wants to give his LG some time to prepare, and if he would have appointed himself Tamlin would have had less than two weeks. Sorry, I'm not sure what your last sentence means, could you explain it a little better?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
People take out their anger on the wrong people sometimes
Was what I meant.  I don't think Manchin appointing himself would hurt him at all to be honest.  But it could turn people off Dems which could hurt the next Dem to run for governor.

Think of Frank Murkowski appointing his daughter, he killed his own career but she's a Senator for life (I realize the seat didn't flip parties but bear with me).  Sure he didn't appoint himself but nepotism is close to appointing yourself.

[ Parent ]
Frank was the one who appointed her
And while difficult, it's possible for Lisa Murkowski to distance herself from her father and run in her own right.

You can't distance yourself from an appointment that reeks of pure self-interest and greed (and yes, it would become a huge campaign issue both in 2010 and, if he had won, 2012).

It's also worth mentioning that Murkowski didn't exactly have an easy time of winning in 2004 either (she only won by 3 points, compared to Bush's 25 point stomping of Kerry).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I think the case is not good for compare

And still L Murkowski win the reelection. L Murkowski was a weak appointment, not the strongest appointment. I think appoint not the stongest person help hurting to the governor what appoint.

Is very high the difference between appoint your daughter and appoint a weak person under your total influence? We have the important detail of the nepotism, but is basically the same.

Is very difficult to find other example like this. In West Virginia you have not living former Cabinet members, you have not living former senators, and you have living only three former governor. One with 90+ years old, other affected by scandals, and the third, living in New York and without initial interest.

I agree not with weak appointments and I think this article is consecuence of the appointment what drive us to this situation.

[ Parent ]
It's not even remotely similar to
Picking a qualified political ally to be a place holder isn't anything close to choosing a family-member to appoint to the seat permanently (the way Frank Murkowski did), and Frank Murkowski did end up losing his governorship because of it (and, as I said, Lisa Murkowski had the good luck of being in a state that's pretty damn Republican like Alaska is). There's a reason why nobody is really complaining about selections like Ted Kaufman and George LeMieux (who were both clearly placeholders for other candidates), even though they clearly were allies with certain politicians (LeMieux isn't anymore, but he was at the time).

Those choices weren't weak, and this one isn't either, it's exactly what you'd want in a placeholder, uncontroversial and qualified.

Selecting a family member, on the other hand, is by definition controversial, and in Murkowski's case, wasn't done for the purposes of a placeholder for someone else to run, it was to blatantly give his daughter his senate seat without the need for an election before hand (which Manchin, regardless of the merits of his selection, will be subject to before getting that seat).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I agree with you but hurt maybe not the word

All we know the next democratic candidate for governor will have a very hard election. Up to the governors office now after do nothing for it would help (I think) to the current Lieutenant Governor giving him the advantage of be incumbent. But still he would have a very hard next election.
[ Parent ]
There have been 9 governors who have appointed themselves
to open Senate seats. 8 of 9 lost in primary or the general. That is not a good track record and I think 9 data points is a good enough sample to shy away from doing so no matter how popular.  
[ Parent ]
I don't (n/t)

[ Parent ]
hoosierdem
I know, but this is not an habitual case.

Who would beat him? Who would challenge him? I think about it too.

Democrats:


GOVERNORS:

1.- Joe Manchin: (1947) Governor 2005- . Secretary of State 2001-05.
2.- Gaston Caperton: (1940) Governor 1989-97. Living in NY?
3.- Hulett Smith: (1918) Governor 1965-69. More than 90 years old.
4.- Robert Wise: (1948) Governor 2001-05. US House 1983-01. Scandals.

US HOUSE:

5.- Nick Rahall: (1949) US House 1977- .
6.- Alan Mollohan: (1943) US House 1983-11. Lost for the US House against Oliverio.
7.- Harley Staggers: (1951) USH House 1983-93. Lost for the US House against Mollohan.
8.- Ken Hechler: (1914) US House 1959-77. WV Secretary of State 1985-01. Lost for Governor against J Rockefeller. Lost for the US House against Rahall and Capito (R). Lost for WV Secretary of State against Ireland (R). More than 90 years old.
9.- John Hutchinson: (1935) US House 1980-81. Lost for the US House against Staton (R).

LIEUTENANT GOVERNORS AND PRESIDENTS OF THE STATE SENATE:

10.- Earl Tomblin: (1952) Lieutenant Governor 2000- . President of WV Senate 1995- .
11.- Keith Burdette (1955) President WV State Senate 1989-95.
12.- Ralph Bean: (1912) President WV State Senate 1953-61. More than 90 years old. Living?.
13.- Lloyd Jackson: (1918) President WV Setate Senate 1969-71. More than 90 years old.
14.- Warren McGraw: (1939) President WV State Senate 1981-85. Lost for lower level offices.

OTHER STATEWIDE ELECTED OFFICES:

15.- Glen Gainer: (1960) WV State Auditor 1993- .
16.- Natalie Tennant: (19??) WV Secretary of State 2009- .
17.- John Perdue: (1950) WV State Treasurer 1996- .
18.- Darrel McGraw: (1936) WV Attorney General 1993- .
19.- Gus Douglass: (19??) WV Commissioner of Agriculture 1964-89 1993- . Lost for Governor against Carpeton.
(I continue not with the former officers because they are not relevant).

Republicans:

GOVERNORS:

1.- Arch Moore: (1923) Governor 1969-1977 and 1985-1989. US House 1957-1969. Scandals and jail.

US HOUSE:

2.- Shelley Moore Capito: (1953) US House 2001- .
3.- Cleve Benedict: (1935) US House 1981-1983. WV Commissioner of Agriculture 1989-1993. Lost for the Senate against R Byrd. Lost for Governor against G Caperton.
4.- Mick Staton: (1940) US House 1981-1983. Lost for the US House against J Slack and B Wise.

LIEUTENANT GOVERNORS AND PRESIDENTS OF THE STATE SENATE:

OTHER STATEWIDE ELECTED OFFICES:

5.- Betty Ireland: (1946) WV Secretary of State 2005-2009.
(The previous republican statewide officers leaves the statewide office in 1977 and some was appointed by the republican governor).

The next level are the state senators.

I think like rdw tell what would be much more easily what the possible challenger or runners look to the next gubernatorial race, but they are looking too now for succeed Manchin, and if Tomblin wish run, he will have the same hard race. I see not like up to the governors office without make nothing for it would hurt him.

Would be not understandable if Manchin would appoint himself? I would understand it. For me is worse the change in the law of succession. Maybe the law is not the best, but the change should come after the current succession.

[ Parent ]
At
the end of the day I think Manchin stands a better chance running as Governor rather than an incumbent Senator.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Manchin wants this seat so badly....
...he's obviously not thinking straight... He's practically giving the seat away!  Is he so obsessed that he can't see the peril of this idiotic deal right in front  of his eyes? What a fool!
Are you saying that Manchin
can't beat Capito?

If Capito runs, I'd bet that Manchin's margin will exceed Blumenthal's.

[ Parent ]
Of course he can beat Capito....
...but, he's spotting the GOP 20 points... who in their right mind does that?
[ Parent ]
What data leads you to that conclusion?
How do you come up with "20 points"?

Please link or cite appropriate statistics.

[ Parent ]
Compare Manchin's numbers...
...between Capito and no name GOP'er...

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

It's actually more than 20 points he's giving away...

[ Parent ]
Thank you for presenting "data"
but as it is Rassmusen, I have to wonder about its credibility. It is Ireland who has been elected statewide.
[ Parent ]
What are you talking about?
For them to approve the special election he needs two thirds of the state legislator. He had to make a compromise so we could get the election and do you really think that this is practically giving the seat away? Being overly pessimistic I would rank it at lean D if Capito runs, no worse. He most certainly is not giving the seat away, that is a foolish statement.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Was LordMike being sarcastic?
That's how I read it?
[ Parent ]
This comment suggests otherwise
[ Parent ]
Mistake #1 on his part...
...to be so obsessed with having a special election.  Forcing a special election when it wasn't necessary shows recklessness on his part.

Now, he's so desperate for a special election that isn't necessary, he's accepting a deal that is literally giving his opponent 20 points.  Capito will have at least 20 points on whatever nobody that would have run against Manchin.  Madness!

Errors in politics are like errors in baseball.  If you give the other team more than 27 outs, they will most likely win the game.

Right now, Manchin is throwing the ball away and giving the GOP a real chance at taking this seat.  His ambition is so blind, he's not realizing the serious errors he's making.

Absolute craziness! I've never seen a candidate actually give their opponent gifts like these deliberately... never... it's insane!  Does he really want to lose?  Apparently so!

And, yes, Capito is running... She has nothing to lose by trying... Who's advising this guy?  They are total idiots!


[ Parent ]
You are very wrong
I am not a lawyer but it seems like he has to have an election in 2010. That is what the Attorney General said anyway and that is the way I read the law as well. However it is politically best for us to have the race in 2010 as well, it absolutely is. Manchin is the Dick Blumenthal lifesaver of candidates, it may sound easy to just file WV away to worry about in 2012 but in all reality is better to do it now while Manchin still has Jesus like approval ratings. A lot of things can happen in two years as Governor and that 70 percent could turn into 30 like that. And if it is Capito verses someone else in 2012 then write the seat off, no one else has Manchin's approvals. If the election is three months away Capito will have very little time to fundraise and will not likely be able to make much a race of it. It is politically smart to peal the band aide off and get this thing over with. We have the advantage. Manchin has done everything right so far and I can not disagree with you more. The guys who are advising him are most certainly not idiots at all. I do not like the running two races at once but he had to do it to get it passed and honestly I think it may not be the smartest thing to do politically but legally I think he almost has to. Also Capito has a lot to lose by running. She has an EXCELLENT shot of getting elected Governor in 2012 or Senate in 2014 but could jeopardize that by running a bad campaign right now. I am not expecting her to run to be honest. Why would she run a race she knew she would lose when she can walk into the Senate in four years or the Governs mansion in two. I am honestly starting to wonder if you want Manchin or us for that matter to lose, as your advise could lose us this seat while Manchin's  choices so far are likely to save it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He's not giving the seat away
West Virginia is full of old school Democrats and Joe Manchin is the perfect fit for them. Capito is strong, but not she's strong enough to overtake Manchin in the special election, the old school Democrats aren't going to tilt toward her. I see Manchin winning 56-44.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
I agree with that prediction
For now. I may change mine once the race starts and see how fundraising goes and what kind of campaigns they run. However, 56-44 is enough to make the DSCC spend money. Then again, its enough to make the NRSC spend money too...
[ Parent ]
WV-Sen: Special Election on Tap... With a Safety Net for Capito? | 111 comments

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