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GA-Gov: Handel Surges, Oxendine Plunges

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jul 19, 2010 at 4:33 PM EDT


Magellan Strategies: (7/18, likely Republican primary voters, 7/8 in parentheses):

Karen Handel: 38 (32)
Nathan Deal: 20 (18)
Eric Johnson: 17 (12)
John Oxendine: 12 (18)
Ray McBerry: 3 (3)
Jeff Chapman: 3 (3)
Otis Putnam: 0 (0)
Undecided: 7 (14)
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspapers (7/15-16, likely Republican primary voters, 7/8-13 in parentheses):

Karen Handel: 29 (23)
John Oxendine: 22 (31)
Nathan Deal: 20 (18)
Eric Johnson: 13 (6)
Ray McBerry: 2 (2)
Jeff Chapman: 1 (1)
Undecided: 13 (19)
(MoE: ±5%)

InsiderAdvantage (7/14, likely Republican primary voters, 7/1 in parentheses):

Karen Handel: 24 (18)
Nathan Deal: 16 (12)
John Oxendine: 15 (18)
Eric Johnson: 13 (8)
Jeff Chapman: 6 (6)
Ray McBerry: 3 (3)
Otis Putnam: 1 (1)
Undecided: 22 (34)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Three different polls are out today of the Republican gubernatorial primary (to be held tomorrow). If one thing's certain, it's that Karen Handel, the former SoS, is likely to be one of the participants in the runoff. There's now a pitched battle for 2nd place, between Nathan Deal, John Oxendine (falling out of a solid first just weeks ago), and even state Sen. Eric Johnson (who went on a last-minute TV ad binge).

Handel's recent success has lots to do with Sarah Palin and Jan Brewer endorsements, but also with a good ad strategy: branding herself the "reformer" and hitting her opponents' corruption. With Deal having bailed out early from the House to avoid getting nailed on ethics problems, and now with allegations just emerging over the last few weeks regarding linkages between Oxendine's regulatory activities as insurance commissioner, and big payouts from those insurers he's supposed to regulate, the ads wrote themselves.

Pollster.com's regression lines paint a pretty clear picture of the last few weeks:

Crisitunity :: GA-Gov: Handel Surges, Oxendine Plunges
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GA-Gov: Handel Surges, Oxendine Plunges | 45 comments
Wow
Barnes must be loving this.  Not that he can pick up votes from a fractured Republican primary but I'm not sure the entire Republican vote can coslesce behind whoever wins.
The Rat outlasts the Ox?!?!
   I still remember that ridiculous web video that Oxendine had a while back. So long, sucka...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
I love the ad
I'm pulling for the Ox just at the chance we get another ad like that.
[ Parent ]
Bye, Ox
Hello, King Roy voice suddenly deepens the Rat.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
the amount of undecided LV's
 are so different between those three polls... not sure what that means.
Magellan 7%
Mason-Dixon 13%
InsiderAdvantage 22%

With Handel's considerable current momentum, if the election were held next week rather than tomorrow she maybe could have avoided a runoff.

Oh, it's easy to see what it means......
It means a competitive primary is exceptionally difficult to poll, especially with late movement among several very strong candidates.

These pollsters are struggling to figure out who among the GOP rank-and-file will show up to vote, and those very voters' preferences are shifting quickly.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Georgia GOP Gov. Polls
Haven't there been like tons of polls on the GOP primary showing each of Deal, Handel and Oxendine in the lead at some point??? How can they be all over the place???

That being said, if it turns out that Handel takes it (either now or at the runoff), any GA folks out there who know of her chances against Barnes? I fear that there are still a lot of Barnes haters out in middle GA and Handel may be seen as fresh and different (read woman) but if elected (as in Brewer and likely Haley) will turn out to be so incompetent and outmatched for the job that the state will (rightly) suffer for it.

Now I'm saying this not because they are women, preposterous as that sounds, but because everyone seems to be getting in on the "freshest is bestest" act without thinking of experience or governing competency, which, for me at least, is something I've been concerned with since Obama's election.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

What are you trying to say Shinigami?
Your saying that fresh is the best take on politics is not the best way to decide on who to vote for because since Obama has been elected everyone has decided to take that path and that may not be a good thing because not every pol is like Obama. Because if your right I agree because it may not be the best approach because some pols with less expierence may not be up to the task of a executive position like Nikki Haley in SC.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Well kinda...
Immitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but a profoundly foolish way to run a government like ours.

It seems to me, at least on the GOP side, the anti-incumbency/establishment fervor is so high that their one-note spur-of-the-moment single-issue tunnel-vision voters are pushing candidates who are completely unprepared for government. On the one hand, that is a good contrast for 2012 but with a deflated Dem base in 2010, these pyschos will get a louder voice at the ballot box and their Palinista high school antics will be the death of the states and districts that were cursed to elect them into office.

Look at Jan Brewer for example, she has NO FREAKING CLUE what being Gov of a state like AZ is. Now by a stroke of luck she's hawking the immigration ticket to an undeserved elected term in office. The state will go backwards when it should be going forward, which tells you the fickle nature of the American voter when under economic stress and the quality of nitwits that are today's GOP.

It's like stupid and spontaneous eloped and spawned mayhem. Sad...so sad.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

[ Parent ]
It's not just lack of governing competence
It's a hatred for intellectualism.
[ Parent ]
I also personally think Handel
would be the strongest GOP candidate for the General; she could make up for lost South Georgia votes with her increased margins in Atlanta metro.

Nathan Deal is the best Republican for Barnes to face; it'd be likely Dem then, so I'm crossing my fingers for him to get into the run-off and then consolidate the support of the other Conservatives.  

[ Parent ]
Karen Handel doesn't even have a college degree.
If I remember correctly.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
good for her!
Besides being SoS, seems like she has non-trivial executive business experience, if her Wikipedia page is accurate.

Not that I'd support anyone endorsed by Sarah Palin...

[ Parent ]
Mostly
Oxendine has had the lead in a vast majority of the polls. Only the past few polls showed how soft his support really is. You've got to remember though, Oxendine announced before anyone else on the GOP side, and he's been the Insurance Commissioner for almost two decades. Basically, he had the name ID.

I would not be worried about Barnes' detractors in Middle and South GA. He's traveled the state at an insane pace. He's put a big focus on rural teachers, which will help a lot as they were the ones who went out in droves to vote against him 8 years ago.

[ Parent ]
Handel's rise if true is mind boggling
I have always heard from my political science days that endorsements don't really matter that much and that grassroots support and a media presence were much more important.

But Handel's rise is completely the opposite; it is all due to Palin's endorsement. Just look at the trajectory after Palin's endorsement and how many polls now show Handel leading. I just don't get it. Handel has the least ads up of any major candidate D or R and she is not more visible than the other GOP candidates in any significant way (yard signs, bumper stickers, field operation, etc.)

What is going on?

Well think about your first sentence
Don't you think Palin's endorsement brought media attentions and the support of the grassroots tea party movement?

Can you name another person who endorsed Handel?  If not, then the Palin endorsement brought media attention.

Can you name a grassroots organization supporting any other candidates?  Then the backing of the tea party via Palin gives her the grassroots.

Also, don't forget a fractuered 4-way primary may not have been exactly what your poli-sci prof was talking about when he made his statement.  In such a thing, an endorsement alone could trigger something bigger.

[ Parent ]
No, Palin helped Nikki Haley more than Handel. Handel is much higher-profile on her own...
...than Haley ever was.  Haley was just a state legislator, Handel a statewide elected official.  Handel was considered one of the frontrunners from the start, and if you compare to SC-Gov, Handel started out a lot more like Henry McMaster than Nikki Haley.

Handel might have rallied and won the primary anyway.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
One of the frontrunners in a 3way race?
That's like saying I'm the most handsome person in my house (I'm alone right now).

Oxendine had been polling better than Handel all along.  Pretty sure the endorsements coincide pretty nicely to the improved polling of Handel and Deal....

[ Parent ]
Sure, and Handel was polling 2nd all along, unlike Haley who was a distant 4th. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
She had always
Been in second, except for the occasional Heal-Danel dead heat, which we hardly ever saw. She was usually considered likely to beat Ox in the runoff.  
[ Parent ]
Based on what?
Why was she always favored to win a runoff?  I haven't seen any poll that ever gave her more than 25% until last week.  Somehow she already had a coalition to get to 50% in a runoff?
[ Parent ]
Deal and Oxendine are corrupt.
With their ethics problems, you'd have to figure Handel would have an advantage against either one in the runoff.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Even though until a week or 2 ago
More than 50-60% of people polled were voting for the corrupt?  In fact they still are voting more the corrupt than Handel by far today.

Sorry, but this is all Palin.  I'm giving Handel nothing to be honest.  SoS is great and all but she was foundering and honestly I don't even know what Handel is doing aligned with Palin when its Deal who wants the Arizona immigration law to come to Georgia.

I'm all for Handel.  I think there's nothing that can help Democrats more in 2012 than to see the Tea Party tested in a real statewide race with a candidate who isn't someone who seems so out of the mainstream.  

Unless we can get Oxendine and his "Rat vs Ox" ads to come back LOL

[ Parent ]
Not all Palin
She started moving up before then. The Palin endorsement happened last Monday. She went up on TV a week before and negative ads started against Ox.  
[ Parent ]
Anti-Ox field
Most of the voters were Anti-Oxedine, meaning whoever was in the run-off against him was favored.
[ Parent ]
Endorsements don't matter?
it's been a year and people have already forgotten about Creigh Deeds, the Washington Post candidate?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Following
I'm not sure Palin's endorsement has had that much to do with it.

Lately we've seen more and more attacks against Oxendine and if the polls are believed, his base is quite soft.

Handel's the only woman in the race.

Handel was the Fulton County Chair.

Handel is thought of as a social moderate (even if she's not).

She decided not to debate McBerry.

I really think it's a number of factors adding up at the right time.

[ Parent ]
I'm an idiot...
I just realized that I'm going to be flying into Atlanta tomorrow for work and that tomorrow is the primary.  I'm in the northern suburbs of Atlanta so I can try to gauge what people think about everyone politically while I'm there for the week.
Which northern suburbs?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I hope I got it right
The town/city is called Suwannee, they all use the term Gwinnett County.  I guess county identity is important in the South.
[ Parent ]
Gwinnett seems unusually weird about that.
You'll hear radio ads from local chains where they list off their locations.  They'll list cities (Alpharetta, Kennesaw, Morrow, etc.), but seem to always say "Gwinnett" instead of a particular city in Gwinnett like Norcross or Lawrenceville.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yup, and the local Minor league team
Is the Gwinnett Braves to if I'm not mistaken.
[ Parent ]
Yep
Also have/had a team called the Gwinnett Gladiators.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Nice polls for Deal
I had left him for dead a couple months ago but he's built his campaign around a single issue (brining a version of AZ SB1070 to Georgia) and struck a cord with a good chunk of the primary electorate. At this point, I see him as the second strongest GOP choice after Handel because he can best consolidate the rural vote. Oxendine comes off as too slick for rural Georgia, and I think he would lose some of the southern counties to Barnes.

Handel, I believe, is the GOP's best shot at a hold here. She can hold down the margins in the Atlanta area, and the Palin and Brewer endorsements will help her in the Bible Belt region.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Curious
What's her appeal in Atlanta that will hold down margins in your opinion?  I wouldn't have really though that to be a strength for her in comparison to Oxendine and Deal.
[ Parent ]
I don't know
It's just the general buzz that I've read both here and on other blogs. She was Chairwoman of the Fulton County Commissioners, so metro Atlanta is her home turf. Other than that, I'm not sure what makes her better for that area than Deal or Oxendine. Anyone on here more familiar with GA politics who can answer this?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I think its Barnes to lose
If he loses it will either be a major gaffe/disaster in his campaign or he will get out-hustled.  I think this is the best set-up Dems have had in a deep south state in a while (I for whatever reason don't count FL and TN as deep south states).
[ Parent ]
Only Johnson would not have a logical effect in Metro Atlanta
Oxendine is from Duluth (Gwinnett County).  Deal is from Hall County, which isn't in Metro Atlanta itself, but is just outside it, and Deal's old district includes parts of Metro Atlanta (like Forsyth County).

FWIW, Barnes is also from Metro Atlanta (Mableton, in Cobb County).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
The Fulton GOP thing is big
Also before the Palin endorsement she spoke more about economic conservatism than social conservatism but that's all changed now to who can be the most anti-gay/ anti-immigration among Republicans and she was wise to change to speaking to those issues as well to survive her primary.

Country-club conservatives are more important in metro GOP circles than the rest of the state and Handel seems the most acceptable to that set but Barnes has unique crossover appeal to moderate Republican business folks so that could be neutralized come November (he raised $20 million from these folks in 2002).  

[ Parent ]
Barnes raised $20M in 2002
Really?  That is crazy.  God bless him if he can hit that number this time.  Am I crazy or is that a lot for Georgia?
[ Parent ]
That's as much as Jerry Brown has raised so far I think
in California, which is about 4 times the size of Georgia.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
He's raised the most so far I believe
He has the most COH besides Oxendine and he definitely well have the most after the bloody GOP run-off.  
[ Parent ]
definitely will* n/t
n/t
[ Parent ]
So?
As I mentioned in another thread, that number is quite deceiving.

Yes, he raised a boatload of money, but he still got trumped by Perdue, who barely raised any.

You've also got to remember that in 2002 the old machine was still active, the Democrats were in power, and no one thought Barnes would actually lose.

Fast forward to 2010, I will say this though, Barnes knows how to raise money.

When he first announced, I laughed at the idea of him running. After that first disclosure hit though, I realized he was serious.

It's not necessarily how much he raised, it's who he raises money from.

A lot of liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans want to proclaim our old coalition of urban liberals and rural conservative-leaning Democrats as dead.

Barnes is reviving that coalition. He's raising money from Democrats in all areas.

[ Parent ]
Deal is a worse candidate
than Oxendine; he's just as corrupt only without the financial resources. Plus he's a long time Washington insider, that makes it really easy for Barnes to turn it into a Georgia versus Washington debate.  
[ Parent ]
GA-Gov: Handel Surges, Oxendine Plunges | 45 comments

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