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NV-Gov/NV-03: Republicans' Support Falls, but Dems Still Face Tough Races

by: DavidNYC

Mon Jul 19, 2010 at 10:16 AM EDT


Mason-Dixon (7/12-14, likely voters, 6/1-3 in parens)

Rory Reid (D): 36 (37)
Brian Sandoval (R): 47 (51)
Other: 3 (1)
None of these: 7 (1)
Undecided: 7 (10)
(MoE: ±4%)

Sandoval's lead is down from 14 points to 11, but it's not like Rory's made any kind of gain - rather, everyone's favorite candidate, "none of these," is the beneficiary of Sandoval's drop. Still, there ain't nothin' wrong with winnin' ugly, and if none-of-the-above helps Rory win what is still a major uphill battle, I'm sure he won't be complaining.

NV-03 (4/5-7 in parens):

Dina Titus (D-inc): 42 (44)
Joe Heck (R): 40 (49)
Other: 5 (N/A)
None of these: 4 (N/A)
Undecided: 9 (7)
(MoE: ±5%)

That's actually a pretty steep drop for Mighty Joe Heck, and there's no clear explanation for it. Pollster Brad Coker claims Heck got a bounce last time around (which, you'll note, was all the way back in April) thanks to Titus's support for the just-passed healthcare reform bill. Color me skeptical. I'll note that M-D seemed to alter its methodology in the interm, apparently prompting now for "other" and "none." All of Heck's shrinkage can be attributed to the appearance of these alternate options. Once again, it looks like Nevada's quirky none-of-the-above feature might wind up doing Dems a big favor here.
DavidNYC :: NV-Gov/NV-03: Republicans' Support Falls, but Dems Still Face Tough Races
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NV-Gov/NV-03: Republicans' Support Falls, but Dems Still Face Tough Races | 24 comments
Titus
I wonder if her chances depend on Reid. Maybe Angle hurts Heck as well as herself.
That's what I think
I had NV-3 going red mostly because of up-ballot coattails from Sandoval and the republican Senate nominee, with the assumption that both would be winning, and winning big.  Now with Sharron Angle imploding, that has a huge effect on the NV-3 race as many of the independents that couldn't stomach Angle and democrats that wouldn't have turned out had a complete loon not been on the GOP ballot line might just save Titus.

Still, with Nevadans feeling very grumpy in general, it's hard to say what will happen.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Shows that voters aren't that thrilled with any candidate
The Republicans haven't exactly offered much, except rhetoric, I imagine many people are starting to see that. If Dina Titus survives this year, she has a great shot at sticking around in cycles to come, Nevada will gain a district after the census and she could benefit from having a reduced sized district, much the same as Shelley Berkeley did.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Call me crazy
or call me stupid, but not crazy-stupid cos I am never both, but I'm just not seeing a GOP wave in 2010. I personally expect a net GOP pickup of about 15-20 seats, even though I expect folks like Titus may very well go down

I do hope that come the 112th congress, we are more aggressive in our whip operation (cos we really suck in messaging) and force test votes to rattle the new GOP reps who take Dem seats. We've cleaned up as best as we could in '06 and '08 and a lot of the GOPers who could have taken out in 2010 were experienced pols who could vote 100% with their party in Congress and still fool their constituents back home about their record.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

Possible
But personally I still see a loss of around 30 and 5-7.
[ Parent ]
Right now, that's what I see too

[ Parent ]
15-20 is kind of wavish
If not it is still a  decisive and clear loss, which is what everyone is predicting.  So I'd say you are neither stupid nor crazy, just optimistic
[ Parent ]
Ripples perhaps?

[ Parent ]
Wave might be a bit too strong of a word
Sure, there will be lots of gains for them, sort of a medium to small wave, but nothing like the GOP would really like.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
bucking the conventional wisdom
I think 15-20 is too high. I'd say single digits. Of all the Democrats who first got elected in 2008 in tossup districts such as NV-03: some will continue to win very close elections, and some will become popular incumbents who outperform their PVI's, but very few will lose.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
pass what you're smoking!
Just kidding, but I wish I had more of your optimism.  I think the 2008 class are going to get thrashed while the 2006 class I think will do okay, and that's how we'll keep the House.
[ Parent ]
Im too in the optimistic side

I would tell 15-20 loses for the House, not more than 25, and for the Senate I think the republicans will get with 42-43 seats.

I smoke not, Im social drinker only lol

I can give you some wine :) maybe from my native country

[ Parent ]
Ralston
Knows of at least three polls that show Angle trailing Harry Reid.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/new...

One is Mason-Dixon, another is Patriot Majority so what of the third?

PPP?

[ Parent ]
Could be
That one is due today isn't it?
[ Parent ]
Reid vs Angle

These are the favorable polls for Reid, against Angle, what I know:

Mason-Dixon (July): +7%
Fairbanks Maslin Maullin Metz (D) (June): +4%
Research 2000 (May): +6%
Mason-Dixon (May): +3%
POS Public Opinion Strategies (R) (February): +5%

[ Parent ]
The 3rd is a private poll, based on his Twitter feed......
Look at Political Wire from last week, they got an e-mail from Ralston about the Patriot Majority poll in which he said he also saw another "non-Dem" poll the same week with "nearly identical numbers" as the Patriot Majority poll.  His point was that the Democratic-partisan Patriot Majority numbers were corroborated by a non-partisan or even private GOP poll, and therefore believable.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Ugh, forget my subject line reference to "Twitter feed," I meant just Taegan Goddard's Political Wire site. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
One thing all Nevada Dems have going for themselves is Sharon Angle
Every Republican, from Sandoval to Heck to whoever is running for Bumfuck County Dog Catcher needs to be flat-out put on the spot and asked if they are supporting Sharon Angle for Senate.

I think we're just in the beginning stages of her implosion, and the best part is she doesn't even see it as an implosion, so the crazy is going to just keep on coming.  I'll predict that she doesn't get to 40% of the vote in November, and needs to be hung around the neck of every Nevada Republican.

Hahahahaha, that question really does need to be posed to every GOPer
in NV.  What a damned if you do damned if you dont question to answer.
[ Parent ]
Titus
sent out a press release titled "The Heck-Angle Agenda -- Leaving Nevada Behind."

http://www.dinatitus.com/press...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I'd like to think...
that us Bruin Democrats doing road trips to Nevada to canvas for Obama in the weeks leading up to the election helped push Dina Titus over the top too.  We hung "vote for Obama and Titus" door hangers on a LOT of doors.

And this move from Titus, hanging Angle around Heck's neck, is simply smart politics.  Good to see Titus's campaign capitalize on Angle's lunacy.

[ Parent ]
While this is the outer edge of what's plausible, I wouldn't be shocked if Reid's margin is...
...something like 51-39.  It could be that dominating.

The thing is, there's no sign of any reversal in the trajectory of this thing.  Angle has shown no signs of life at all.  Karl Rove's "American Crossroads" group can't keep it close for her if she's doing everything wrong.  And she's done everything wrong.  Even her first ad was a disaster.

Now, if Angle actually gets the wake-up call at some point and agrees to do whatever the NRSC tells her to do, then she'll start to recover at least enough to give Reid a real dogfight.  With some luck, from current events taking another unexpected turn against Democrats and/or Reid screwing up somehow (most likely if he drops his guard on his rhetorical discipline which has been superb post-primary), Angle still could actually win.

But right now she's actually on a path to end up getting blown out, without any indication she realizes that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I don't think
Angle is an actual Republican. You know how Democrats used to say Ralph Nader was a Republican? I think Angle is secretly a Democrat. She's been such a gift to our side.

My theory is that she was created in a lab by the NV Democratic Party to sabotage the NV Republican Party. It's all part of a sinister but brilliant plot. On a similar note I also believe Alvin Greene was created in a lab by the SC GOP.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
NV-Gov/NV-03: Republicans' Support Falls, but Dems Still Face Tough Races | 24 comments

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