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California Redistricting: 48 Democrats in Compact Districts

by: silver spring

Sat Jul 10, 2010 at 10:10 PM EDT


In a previous diary, I said that I was not going to post this plan for California because I thought it's a "dummymander" in terms of Democratic prospects ... I still think that (at least when compared to the previous map I drew for the state) ... However, when I looked at the plan again, it appears to guarantee no less a number of Democrats than the current (2002) plan.  So, while the plan here may be a "dummymander", it is not a bigger "dummymander" than the existing plan.  In other words, if this plan were adopted, Democrats would still be assured of having at least as many seats in California as we have today -- BUT with the added possibility (and in many cases, a probability) of an extra 14 Democratic seats.  So, I will post the map I drew after all.
silver spring :: California Redistricting: 48 Democrats in Compact Districts
This is my second attempt at California since the partisan data by precinct became available in Dave's Application.  My first attempt is here ....

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

I decided to do the new map to see just how many Democratic districts you can create using a lower Democratic "threshold" -- in this plan, I wanted each Democratic district to be at least 55% Obama (maximum 44% McCain), as opposed to the 62% Obama (maximum 37% McCain) I used in my first map.  Under the "55% plan" you can create 48 Democratic districts for California (as opposed to 43 Democratic districts under the "62% plan".)

I still strongly believe that having the 62% Obama minimum is a better plan for California, as the "55% plan" might lead to the partial "dummymander" (a good number of the 55-57% Obama districts here would have voted for Bush in 2004, whereas every single one of the 43 Democratic districts created under the "62% plan" would have voted for John Kerry).  Nevertheless, the "55% plan" results in generally more compact districts, and of course, 5 more possible Democrats than the "62% plan".  Also, even under the "55% plan" a total of 34 districts are at least 58% Obama, which is better than the current (2002) plan that has only 33 districts that are at least 58% Obama.  So, in that sense, in a worst-case scenario, we would still have 34 districts pretty much as solid Democratic ones, even if the other 14 districts that are 55%-57% Obama somehow went GOP (actually, there's one 54% Obama - 44% McCain district that I left as such because that's the max. Democratic percentage you could do in that area without messing with county lines / compactness; only two districts are 55% Obama, while the remainder are all at least 56% Obama).

The 5 GOP districts that remain under this plan all went 58% - 62% McCain: they are CA-2 (Wally Herger); CA-21 (Devin Nunes); CA-41 (Jerry Lewis); CA-42 (Gary Miller); and CA-52 (Duncan Hunter).

The plan produces more compact districts, in terms of keeping counties and communities intact.  It has only 112 "county-fragments" (please see my first attempt above for the lengthy explanation if you're not sure what those are), as opposed to the current (2002) plan that has a total of 120 "county-fragments".  (The 112 includes one tiny sliver of Santa Clara Co. that has only 130 persons but is needed to connect the Alameda and Stanislaus parts of CA-11.)  The 1992 plan that was a non-partisan commission-drawn plan based largely on geographic compactness also had only 112 fragments, and this was when California only had 52 districts, so the plan here with 53 districts is technically more geographically compact -- in terms of keeping counties and communities intact -- than the non-partisan commission-based plan of the 1990's (of course, my goal is still to produce as many Democratic seats as possible, which was not the goal of the 1992 plan !).  

The "55% plan" also creates a total of 15 Hispanic majority districts and 4 Hispanic plurality districts (there are currently only eight Hispanic representatives from California), three Asian-plurality districts, one African-American-plurality district (currently there are none in California), and 13 additional seats that are minority-majority (with no particular racial / ethnic minority dominant) ... so a grand total of 36 minority-majority districts for the state (68% of the 53 districts).  The population deviation per district is +/- 2,000 persons.  Demographic info. is shown only as far as the majority or plurality racial/ethnic group.

Under this new plan the districts of most Democratic incumbents remain very safe Democratic seats.  McNerney's district becomes safer (goes from 54% Obama to 60% Obama).  The only exceptions are Blue Dogs Cardoza and Costa, whose districts go from 59% and 60% Obama, respectively to 54% and 55% Obama; but the Blue Dogs should be able to handle this.  Matsui, Baca and Loretta Sanchez also get districts that are only 56% Obama/42% McCain - but I think they should be able to handle those also with good campaigns.  Last, but not least, Howard Berman also gets a 56% Obama/42% McCain district that now includes a good part of the current CA-22 (Kevin McCarthy); a match-up between the two would likely produce a race with a massive infusion of money.  On the bright side for Berman, the district I create for him is not Hispanic-majority, and perhaps he would see a Hispanic Democratic primary challenge against him as a bigger threat that a potential match-up with a high-profile Republican ?  The trade-off to all this is ofcourse that many new Democratic districts are created out of current GOP districts - several of the new districts are ones where a Democrat is virtually assured of winning: for example, Gallegly (CA-24) and Dreier (CA-26) both become 61% Obama districts, while Calvert (CA-44) becomes 62% Obama.

Anyhow, here's my "55% Obama plan":

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District 1:

Incumbent: Mike Thompson (D)
Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32
Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 35

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 68% white

Includes all of Napa, Lake, Glenn and Butte Counties, and part of Sonoma Co. - Santa Rosa, Sonoma, Rohnert Park

District 2:  

Incumbent: Wally Herger (R)
Current District:  Obama 43; McCain 55
Proposed District:  Obama 40; McCain 58

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 76% white

Includes all of Modoc, Shasta, Tehama, Lassen, Plumas, Sierra and Yuba Counties, and western part of Placer Co.

District 3:  

Incumbent: Dan Lungren (R)
Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49
Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% white

Includes all of Colusa, Yolo and Sutter Counties, and part of Sacramento Co. including part of City of Sacramento

District 4:  

Incumbent: Tom McClintock (R)
Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54
Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% white

Includes all of Nevada, El Dorado, Amador, Alpine and Mono Counties, eastern part of Placer Co. and part of Sacramento Co. including part of City of Sacramento

District 5:  

Incumbent: Doris Matsui (D)
Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28
Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 58% white

Includes part of Sacramento Co. - including Folsom, Citrus Heights and part of the city of Sacramento

District 6:

Incumbent: Lynn Woolsey (D)
Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22
Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 75% white

Includes all of Del Norte, Siskiyou, Humboldt, Trinity and Mendocino Counties, and most of Sonoma and Marin Counties

District 7:  

Incumbent: George Miller (D)
Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 27
Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 31

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 41% white

Includes all of Solano Co. and northern part of Contra Costa Co.

District 8:  

Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D)
Current District:  Obama 85; McCain 12
Proposed District:  Obama 85; McCain 13

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 45% white

Includes most of San Francisco

District 9:  

Incumbent: Barbara Lee (D)
Current District:  Obama 88; McCain 10
Proposed District:  Obama 80; McCain 18

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 39% white

Includes part of Alameda Co. - Berkeley, Dublin, Livermore and most of Oakland, and part of Contra Costa Co. - Moraga, Orinda, San Ramon

District 10:

Incumbent: John Garamendi (D)
Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 33
Proposed District:  Obama 69; McCain 30

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 55% white

Includes central part of Contra Costa Co. and San Rafael in Marin Co.

District 11:  

Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D)
Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44
Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% white

Includes part of Alameda Co. - Pleasanton and part of Oakland, almost all of Stanislaus Co. and sliver of Santa Clara Co.

District 12:  

Incumbent: Jackie Speier (D)
Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24
Proposed District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 47% white

Includes part of San Francisco and most of San Mateo Co.

District 13:

Incumbent: Pete Stark (D)
Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24
Proposed District:  Obama 75; McCain 23

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 33% asian

Includes part of Alameda Co. - Fremont, Newark, Union City, Hayward, San Leandro, Alameda, and part of Oakland

District 14:  

Incumbent: Anna Eshoo (D)
Current District:  Obama 73; McCain 25
Proposed District:  Obama 71; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 42% hispanic

Includes part of San Mateo Co. - Menlo Park, Atherton, East Palo Alto, Portola Valley and part of Redwood City, part of Santa Clara Co. - Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills and part of San Jose, and most of Merced Co.

District 15:  

Incumbent: Mike Honda (D)
Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30
Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 42% asian

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. - Milpitas, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Saratoga and part of San Jose

District 16:  

Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren (D)
Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 29
Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 31

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 39% white

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. - Campbell, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill, Gilroy and part of San Jose

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District 17:

Incumbent: Sam Farr (D)
Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 26
Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 65% white

Includes all of Santa Cruz Co. and San Luis Obispo Co., and coastal areas of Monterey Co.

District 18:  

Incumbent: Dennis Cardoza (D)
Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39
Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 47% Hispanic

Includes all of Calaveras, Tuolumne, Mariposa and Madera Counties, and most of cities of Fresno and Merced

District 19:  

Incumbent: George Radanovich (R) (retiring)*
Current District:  Obama 46; McCain 52
Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 61% hispanic

Includes all of San Benito Co., inland part of Monterey Co. (including Salinas area), and western part of Fresno Co.

* District is completely "relocated" to another part of the Central Valley

District 20:

Incumbent: Jim Costa (D)
Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 39
Proposed District:  Obama 55; McCain 43

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 55% hispanic

Includes all of Kings Co., western part of Kern Co. including part of Bakersfield, and part of Los Angeles Co. (Lancaster, Palmdale)

District 21:  

Incumbent: Devin Nunes (R)
Current District:  Obama 38; McCain 60
Proposed District:  Obama 36; McCain 62

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50% white

Includes all of Tulare Co., eastern part of Fresno Co., and part of Kern Co.

District 22:  

Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy (R)*
Current District:  Obama 42; McCain 56
Proposed District:  Obama 55; McCain 44

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 39% white

Includes all of San Joaquin Co. and Riverbank in Stanislaus Co.

* District is completely "relocated" to another part of the Central Valley.

District 23:  

Incumbent: Lois Capps (D)
Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32
Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50% white

Includes all of Santa Barbara Co. and northern part of Ventura Co.

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District 24:  

Incumbent: Elton Gallegly (R)
Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48
Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 56% white

Includes southern part of Ventura Co., and part of Los Angeles Co. - Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice part of Los Angeles

District 25:  

Incumbent: Howard McKeon (R)
Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 48
Proposed District:  Obama 57; McCain 41

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50%+ hispanic

Includes all of Inyo Co., and part of San Bernardino Co. - Ontario, Fontana, Adelanto, Victorville, Hesperia and Barstow

District 26:  

Incumbent: David Dreier (R)
Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47
Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 56% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co., including El Monte, La Puente, Irwindale, Baldwin Park, Covina, Azusa, Glendora, San Dimas, LaVerne and Claremont

District 27:  

Incumbents: Brad Sherman (D)
Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32
Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 43% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. - including part of San Fernando Valley and northern part of the county

District 28:  

Incumbent: Howard Berman (D)
Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22
Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 48% hispanic

Includes eastern part of Kern Co. (including part of Bakersfield), and part of Los Angeles Co. (including part of San Fernando Valley)

District 29:  

Incumbent: Adam Schiff (D)
Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30
Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 45% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. - Burbank, Pasadena, and part of City of Los Angeles

District 30:  

Incumbent: Henry Waxman (D)
Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28
Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 36

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 69% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. - Beverly Hills, West Hollywood, Calabassas, Hidden Hills, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, part of City of Los Angeles, and most of Santa Clarita

District 31:  

Incumbent: Xavier Beccera (D)
Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 18
Proposed District:  Obama 81; McCain 17

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 71% hispanic

Includes part of City of Los Angeles, Huntington Park, Cudahy and Maywood

District 32:  

Incumbent: Judy Chu (D)
Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30
Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 44% asian

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. -  Monterey Park, Alhambra, South Pasadena, San Marino, Temple City, San Gabriel, Rosemead, Arcadia, Walnut, Diamond Bar, La Habra Heights

District 33:  

Incumbent: Diane Watson (D) (retiring)
Current District:  Obama 87; McCain 12
Proposed District:  Obama 82; McCain 16

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. - Lawndale, Culver City, and parts of City of Los Angeles, Inglewood and Hawthorne

District 34:  

Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)
Current District:  Obama 75; McCain 23
Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. -  Downey, Bellflower, Bell Gardens, Commerce, Vernon, Glendale and part of City of Los Angeles

District 35:  

Incumbent: Maxine Waters (D)
Current District:  Obama 84; McCain 14
Proposed District:  Obama 81; McCain 17

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 38% black

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. -  Palos Verdes peninsula, Santa Catalina Island/Avalon, and parts of Carson, Inglewood, Hawthorne and City of Los Angeles

District 36:  

Incumbent: Jane Harman (D)
Current District:  Obama 64; McCain 34
Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 53% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. - Torrance, Gardena, Lomita, Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, El Segundo, and part of City of Los Angeles

District 37:  

Incumbent: Laura Richardson (D)
Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 19
Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 37% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. -  most of Long Beach, and part of Orange Co. - Westminster, Cypress, La Palma

District 38:  

Incumbent: Grace Napolitano (D)
Current District:  Obama 71; McCain 27
Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 29

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 77% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. -  Norwalk, Whittier, La Mirada, Santa Fe Springs, Montebello, Pico Rivera, East LA, and part of City of Los Angeles

District 39:  

Incumbent: Linda Sánchez (D)
Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 32
Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. -  Lakewood, Cerritos, Paramount, Lynwood and South Gate, and part of Orange Co. - Buena Park, La Habra and parts of Fullerton and Anaheim

District 40:  

Incumbent: Ed Royce (R)*
Current District:  Obama 47; McCain 51
Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50%+ hispanic

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. - Chino, Chino Hills, Montclair, Upland, Rancho Cucamonga, and part of Los Angeles Co. - Pomona, La Puente

* District is completely "relocated" from Orange County to part of San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties

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District 41:  

Incumbent: Jerry Lewis (R)
Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54
Proposed District:  Obama 39; McCain 59

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 62% white

Includes central and eastern parts of San Bernardino Co. (Apple Valley, Yucca Valley, Twentynine Palms, Needles) and part of Riverside Co. (Calimesa, Norco, Murrieta, Temecula, Canyon Lake)

District 42:  

Incumbent: Gary Miller (R)
Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53
Proposed District:  Obama 40; McCain 58

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 69% white

Includes part of Orange Co. - San Juan Capistrano, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, Lake Forest, Vila Park, Yorba Linda, Brea, and parts of San Clemente, Fullerton, Anaheim and Orange

District 43:  

Incumbent: Joe Baca (D)
Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30
Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 51% hispanic

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. - City of San Bernardino, Colton, Rialto, Highland, Loma Linda, Redlands, Big Bear Lake and part of Yucaipa

District 44:  

Incumbent: Ken Calvert (R)
Current District:  Obama 50; McCain 49
Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 51% hispanic

Includes part of Riverside Co. - City of Riverside, Moreno Valley and part of Corona

District 45:  

Incumbent: Mary Bono (R)
Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47
Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% hispanic

Includes part of Riverside Co. - Perris, Lake Elsinore, Palm Springs, Desert Hot Springs, Cathedral City, Indio, Coachella, Blythe, Banning, Beaumont and San Jacinto

District 46:  

Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher (R)
Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 50
Proposed District:  Obama 57; McCain 41

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 42% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. -  Compton and parts of Carson and City of Los Angeles, and part of Orange Co. - Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley and Newport Beach

District 47:  

Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez (D)
Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 38
Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% hispanic

Includes part of Orange Co. - parts of Santa Ana, Orange, Tustin, Garden Grove, Stanton and Anaheim

District 48:  

Incumbent: John Campbell (R)
Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49
Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 47% white

Includes part of Orange Co. - Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Hills, Laguna Woods, Aliso Viejo, Dana Point, and parts of Santa Ana and San Clemente

District 49:

Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R)
Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53
Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 61% white

Includes part of San Diego County - Camp Pendleton, Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar and part of San Diego (La Jolla, Mission Beach, Ocean Beach, UCSD area, Hillcrest)

District 50:  

Incumbent: Brian Bilbray (R)
Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47
Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 43% white

Includes part of San Diego County - San Marcos, Escondido, and part of City of San Diego

District 51:  

Incumbent: Bob Filner (D)
Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 35
Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 56% hispanic

Includes all of Imperial Co., and part of San Diego County - southern part of San Diego, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, El Cajon

District 52:  

Incumbent: Duncan Hunter (R)
Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53
Proposed District:  Obama 37; McCain 61

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 74% white

Includes part of San Diego County - Poway, Santee, and part of Riverside Co. - Hemet, Indian Wells, Palm Desert

District 53:  

Incumbent: Susan Davis (D)
Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30
Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 51% white

Includes part of San Diego County - part of City of San Diego, Coronado, Lemon Grove, La Mesa

Poll
Which plan do you think is better ?
“62% plan”: 43 Dems. guaranteed
“55% plan”: 34 Dems. guaranteed; + maybe 14 more

Results

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Nice job
Seeing how Berman controlled the process for the last redistricting, I doubt he'd weaken his district this much. California Dems need to be ambitious, but maybe not this ambitious. Still, good job!

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

thanks ..
I didn't go into greater detail in the diary, but Berman would also have the option of running in the new CA-29 under this plan (that district is a lot more Democratic here) as a good chunk of Berman's current territory becomes part of the new CA-29 -- actually, the new 29th has slightly more of Berman's current territory than Schiff's current territory ... while setting up Dem. primary battles was not a goal here, the primary objective was to see how many Dem. districts you could get out of CA, w/ incumbent protection somewhere in 2nd or 3rd place as a goal ...

[ Parent ]
A very interesting read.
I loved your first job on California, and I love this one. Props, props, props to you for the hard work and effort this took.

Some comments.

On gerrymandered districts: since I'm a good-government type of guy, I feel that I have to comment on compactness and communities of interest, even though this map doesn't have that as its main purpose.

I feel that this map is definitely better than the previous one with regards to that. Many of its districts do a better job of representation than the current map. In NorCal, the only remotely bad districts are CA-11 and CA-14, which tie the East Bay suburbs and San Jose (respectively) with unrelated Central Valley communities.

SoCal is a lot worse, however. You have several classically bad gerrymanders such as CA-41 - which is absolutely terrible - and things like CA-25, CA-50, and CA-52 (although I think these are actually better than they look). These are easy to see.

But you also have, in SoCal, several more subtle, relatively compact districts that combine communities that are as polar as night and day. CA-28, for instance, starts in Central Valley and then stretches an arm in the LA suburbs. I'm suspicious of CA-34, which looks like it goes from well-off Glendale to take a bite into inner-city LA. I'm also suspicious of the three districts which connect inner-city LA and Orange County. CA-37 and CA-39 look like they're mixing some quite impoverished communities with wealthy OC suburbs. I'm not an expert on SoCal, so I'm not entirely certain of this.

But I am certain that CA-40 does this when it mixes inner-city LA with the OC. It literally combines Compton and Newport Beach, which according to the Census has a median household income of $115,011. Those two places should not be in one district.

On whether this is a dummymander: A lot of the weakest Democratic districts here are in Central Valley. On the one hand, I can see many of these places going Republican - given extremely low Latino turn-out coupled with mid-terms.

In the longer run, however, I'm not worried. I feel that by the end of the decade, with the slow churn of demographics and Latino build-up, these districts will be safely Democratic. They're like the opposite of Georgia, where a Democratic district in 1990 might have voted 60-40 for McCain.

http://mypolitikal.com/


you're right ...
the map here is basically a very Dem. gerrymander ... the concept of compactness is true in the sense of trying to keep counties and individual communities intact and minimizing "county-fragments" and "community-fragments", but in many areas (esp. SoCal) not really about keeping like communities together (although you could argue that CA-41 here, even though it "looks" very gerrymandered, isn't so in terms of keeping "similar" -- in this case, wealthy white "inland empire" GOP communities together ...)

On the other hand, other districts don't "look" as gerrymandered, but really are more so when you look at the demographics of particular communities put together into one district ...

(re. CA-46, btw, I figured if the current plan can combine a part of OC w/ LA Co., so can this plan -- I use basically the same part of OC as the current plan, and use the same sliver of waterside Long Beach to connect it to a part of LA Co. -- just a very different part, instead of the Palos Verdes peninsula, it now is attached to Compton !)

think this was more of a theoretical map for me, but the point in all this remains that Dems. really need to do a better job in the next round of CA remapping (assuming Brown wins), as even with a perfectly neutral map the state should have at least half a dozen more Dems. than under the current map (I think if the commission-drawn "neutral" 1992 plan was in place today, there would be half a dozen more Dems. in the delegation)

thanks for you point re. central valley; yes, I think that area will be moving our way w/ the build-up of Hispanic numbers ... as well as areas in SoCal


[ Parent ]
compromise
Didn't the Dems pass a compromise gerrymander in 2002 because of the fact that they needed 2/3 to pass a budget and the Republicans promised to support them if they passed a map that protected all incumbents? That's what I heard at least. That's sort of irrelevant now though, since Republicans would probably still not support a Dem budget even if it meant more seats for them in Congress; they've really gone insane.

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
Pretty much
But Democrats won four seats in California from the Rethugs in 2000, and going into the 2002 redistricting Gary Condit, a Democrat with a reddish district, was imploding. The redistricting made all four freshman safe, and strengthened CA-18 enough so that another Democrat, Dennis Cardoza, could hold it.

[ Parent ]
I like this map
 I can definitely tell you spent alot of time on it which is great. I like it that it is pretty compact and it seems to go with the VRA. I also like it that you found a way to get rid of Tom McClintock although once one of the Republican seats open, he will probably go and run there.

The only part of the map that bugs me is that you split Marin County. The communities there go really well together and they need to stick together. Since you added Richmond to the 10th, I think the 10th should be safe enough for Garamendi.

Overall though, great map!

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Good map
A lot of potentially competitive districts, I like the fact that Laura Richardson's district was significantly weakened, she is the kind of incumbent who needs to get a kick in the butt to do her job.  

Personally, I would have liked even more competitive districts, which would include GOP-favored gerrymandering in some areas to make competitive districts.  I'd like to see a map that would have no more than 20-25 safe Dems.  But I recognize that this is hard, I tried to draw a GOP-favorable district in San Mateo and Santa Clara, and the best I could do was 61% Obama.


Wow
You want less than 50% of seats to be safe Dem in a what, D+8 state? Now that's what I call California dreamin'.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I like competitive seats
not seats that belong to one party.  I am also for relaxing the VRA requirements in places where white voters have proven that they will elect minorities (i.e Chicago area)

My map for Texas that I'm working on has just 10 safe GOP districts out of 36 (and just 5 safe Dem districts).


[ Parent ]
Nice clean lines
This is Democratic map, but it doesn't look messy like gerrymanders usually do. Giving Lancaster and Palmdale to Jim Costa is very interesting, I wouldn't have thought of that.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Los Angeles Area
I understand what you were doing and that you were just trying to gerrymander your way to a bunch of Democratic districts, but man, you gerrymandered the hell out of LA (in this context, that should be taken as a compliment). The Bay Area part works quite well, in my opinion, it's just the bottom half of the map that might ruffle some feathers.

#27, for example, seems to be random bits of cities that are mostly in other districts, and would be inappropriate for Brad Sherman, who reps almost none of that area currently. I would think he'd run in #28 or #29. He and Schiff and Berman would all have districts that at least half-new, if not moreso, assuming they could be convinced not to run against each other. And as stated by another commenter, #34 is a bit redonkulous with wealthy surburban Glendale & working-class, urban Downey & Bellflower.

That said, you certainly maximized the Democratic lean in areas where I didn't think it could be accomplished. For example, your #48 combining Irvine with Laguna, Costa Mesa, part of Santa Ana, and coastal areas was quite brilliant. A reasonably moderate Democrat like Irvine Mayor Beth Krom, for example, could easily win there, I would think.  

Very interesting map overall, which is what I've come to expect (with glee) from you, Silver Spring.  :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


You're right on the money …
Re. CA-28 & CA-29 ... they're very scrambled here, and as I replied in comments to nycyoungin above, the map here might provoke a primary battle between Berman & Schiff, although my overall intention was to create as many Dem. districts as possible w/ incumbent protection lower down on the ladder of importance (nevertheless, the lines in this area are perhaps the weakest part of this map and in a real-world situation would have to be reworked) ...w/ CA-34, I don't feel too bad there b/c the resulting district is still around 60% Hispanic & 70% Democratic, and the incumbent still gets to keep almost 60% of her current territory ...

Re. CA-27, the district "looks" quite different, but population-wise, Sherman still gets to keep 58% of his current territory ...


[ Parent ]

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