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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 22

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 5:16 PM EDT


Hey, have you ever noticed that if you dressed Scott Rasmussen in Tea Party garb, he'd look exactly like the guy on the Quaker Oats box?

On a more serious note, we're sad to say this is our final volume of Rasmussen Reports, You Decide. Nobody here enjoys the mind-numbing, Hercules-cleaning-the-stables task of putting them together (and that only looks to get worse, with the demoralizing news that they plan to further up their output as election season progresses). But rather than jettisoning Rasmussen entirely (tempting as it may be), we're just going to start doing what Steve Singiser at Daily Kos already wisely does with "Ras-A-Poll-Ooza," which is to eat the elephant in bite-sized chunks and keep each day's Rasmussen polls in their own little containment pool at the end of each day's digest. If you're even more obsessive than us, and you absolutely need to know trendlines, sample dates, the breakdown between "Some Other" and "Not Sure," or MoEs, well, you probably already know where Pollster.com is.

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 35%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 53%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 15%, Marco Rubio (R) 36%, Charlie Crist (I) 34%
• FL-Sen: Jeff Greene (D) 18%, Marco Rubio (R) 37%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%

• HI-Gov: Neil Abercrombie (D) 58%, Duke Aiona (R) 32%
• HI-Gov: Mufi Hannemann (D) 52%, Duke Aiona (R) 30%
• HI-Gov: Neil Abercrombie (D) 59%, John Carroll (R) 30%

• HI-Sen: Dan Inouye (D-inc) 68%, John Roco (R) 20%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 39%

• KS-Gov: Tom Holland (D) 31%, Sam Brownback (R) 59%

• KS-Sen: David Haley (D) 25%, Jerry Moran (R) 60%
• KS-Sen: Lisa Johnston (D) 25%, Jerry Moran (R) 61%
• KS-Sen: Charles Schollenberger (D) 25%, Jerry Moran (R) 59%
• KS-Sen: Robert Conroy (D) 23%, Jerry Moran (R) 60%
• KS-Sen: David Haley (D) 27%, Todd Tiahrt (R) 58%
• KS-Sen: Lisa Johnston (D) 29%, Todd Tiahrt (R) 57%
• KS-Sen: Charles Schollenberger (D) 30%, Todd Tiahrt (R) 55%
• KS-Sen: Robert Conroy (D) 29%, Todd Tiahrt (R) 53%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 42%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

• LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon (D) 36%, David Vitter (R-inc) 52%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 48%

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall (D) 37%, Richard Burr (R) 52%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Rick Lazio (R) 28%
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 25%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 40%, John Kasich 47%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman (R) 43%

• OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 39%, Mary Fallin (R) 48%
• OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 44%, Robert Hubbard (R) 31%
• OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 46%, Randy Brogden (R) 35%
• OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 45%, Roger Jackson (R) 29%
• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 32%, Mary Fallin (R) 55%
• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 38%, Randy Brogden (R) 47%
• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 38%, Robert Hubbard (R) 43%
• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 40%, Roger Jackson (R) 42%

• OK-Sen: Mark Myles (D) 27%, Tom Coburn (R-inc) 62%
• OK-Sen: Jim Rogers (D) 26%, Tom Coburn (R-inc) 65%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 39%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%

• UT-Gov: Peter Corroon (D) 31%, Gary Herbert (R-inc) 58%

• WY-Gov: Mike Massie (D) 22%, Matt Mead (R) 49%
• WY-Gov: Leslie Peterson (D) 23%, Rita Meyer (R) 51%
• WY-Gov: Leslie Peterson (D) 28%, Colin Simpson (R) 44%
• WY-Gov: Leslie Peterson (D) 27%, Ron Micheli (R) 47%
• WY-Gov: Pete Gosar (D) 23%, Matt Mead (R) 51%
• WY-Gov: Pete Gosar (D) 23%, Rita Meyer (R) 52%
• WY-Gov: Pete Gosar (D) 24%, Colin Simpson (R) 51%
• WY-Gov: Pete Gosar (D) 28%, Ron Micheli (R) 46%
Crisitunity :: Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 22
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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 22 | 35 comments
Quaker Oats
Now that I think about it, if Scotty was to dress up in Tea Party garb, he would be the Quaker Oats dude.

Your comment has me laughing uncontrollably...security is about to escort me out the door.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Hilarious Crosstabs
I'm managing the Kansas Gov race. We saw that "poll," a friend who pays for the "crosstabs" sent them to me, and we broke out laughing. They're not really crosstabs, because they only show how each demographic answered a question, but they don't show what share of the whole that demographic represents.  In other words, you know how voters 18-29 answered a question, but you don't know if they're 1% of the overall sample or 99% of the overall sample.  

But, whoo whee, the results were hilarious.  According to Rasmussen, 100% of Kansas voters between the ages of 18 and 29 want to repeal the health care reform bill, and 100% of these same under-thirty voters strongly disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama.  

Just in case you thought you read that wrong, 100% of voters under thirty in the KS Gov poll strongly disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance.  

Riiiiight...

[What was interesting, however, is that Rasmussen had Tom Holland beating Brownback among self-identified moderates 47-42.  If we beat Brownback among moderates 47-42, we probably win.]  

47-42 isn't good for Kansas
Obama won self-described moderates 52-47 (same margin as this poll) but lost the state by 15 points.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Yeah,
Democrats don't just have to win among moderates, they have to, like Sebelius, dominate them on a scale of 2:1 while getting 95% of liberals and a decent 15-20% of conservatives.  
[ Parent ]
I Misspoke
I meant to say that "if we're beating Brownback 52-47."  Right now, few people know Tom Holland. If before the race even begins the de-facto incumbent is already losing moderates--who were 45% of the 2008 electorate, compared to 38% conservative--by five points, he's in deep trouble.

Of course, I would never stake much on the sub-samples of a Ras poll, so I'm not declaring much here. But it intrigued me, because even if we do absolutely nothing between now and the election day, we still probably run ten points better than this Ras poll.  And any serious campaigning should eat in to his margins among moderates and boost our margins among liberals.  

[ Parent ]
Brownback is surprisingly
disliked among moderates in Kansas for some reason; it's why if he had run for reelection I would have banked on Sebelius beating him.  
[ Parent ]
Well, I Came to Kansas to Run The Campaign Because...
...I'm banking on Tom Holland beating him.  

If it were Roberts or Moran running for governor, I wouldn't be here.  But Brownback is much weaker, because few people trust him, and he'd be the first ever conservative Kansas governor.  

[ Parent ]
Brownback is unpopular with moderates because...
Objectively, Brownback is unpopular with moderate Republicans in KS because he's long been the de facto leader of the conservative wing of the party they've been battling for decades. Swept in by the Republican wave of 1994, Brownback defeated Democrat Jim Slattery to take over KS-02 (take it back, Sean Tevis!)  Then, not even through with his first term in Congress, he managed to defeat Sheila Frahm, the then-LG who was appointed to Bob Dole's Senate seat by the then-leader of the moderate wing of the party, Governor Bill Graves, in 1996... by running to her right, of course, and mobilizing social conservatives in the primary. Brownback is a true hardcore social conservative, and only bolstered his "true believer" credentials with his pick of state Sen. Jeff "Creepy Eyes" Colyer, who is so far to the right, some of his supporters think he might fall off the edge of our 6000-year-old Earth.

Tom Holland can win. Moderates are starting to realize that if Brownback wins, the conservatives will effectively control all the levers of state government. Goodbye nice schools and biotech jobs, and prepare to become a national laughingstock...again. Holland also has the best slate running with him KS Democrats have put up in a long, loooong while. In all 4 congressional seats, there are pretty top-tier candidates (1-4 respectively: Alan Jilka, Sean Tevis, Stephene Moore, Raj Goyle). And Dems have 3 "incumbents" (all were appointed) running for statewide seats...including a former House Minority Leader (Treas. Dennis McKinney), a former judge (AG Steve Six), and a thrice-elected former Geary County prosecutor (SoS Chris Biggs).

And remember, Kansas is one of those conservative states where lower turnout actually seems to help Democrats, because it ups the relative percentages of well-informed voters who will at least consider cross-over voting. It was in 2006, after all, that Sebelius romped to her 57% victory, while Dennis Moore hit his career high score of 64% and Nancy Boyda upset Jim Ryun. Plus, the state is getting more blue: Between the 2006 & 2008 elections, Johnson County, easily the state's biggest & fastest-growing county, added 24,000 more voters, of whom about 13,500 were Dems, 8500 were unaffiliated, and just 1000 Republicans. So good call, Dana Houle, because Tom Holland can with this thang.

Disclosure: I'm don't work for the campaigns or party or anything. I'm just a born-and-raised Kansas Democrat & politics geek... in exile in California.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I Hope You'll Be Back in Kansas in November
Great comment. Your comment is very perceptive, and there's not much to add other than pointing out that to a degree that may not exist anywhere else in the country, there really are two very distinct blocs of Republicans, both in terms of the electorate and in terms of Republican elected officials. Kansas is a strongly partisan Republicans state, but it's not tremendously conservative. There are conservatives in large numbers, no doubt, but they have been in an extended pitched battle with the moderates, who've typically been a sufficiently large and independent bloc in the legislature that they've controlled the Senate and have big influence in the House. But the moderates are under siege from the conservatives, and some of them are likely to lose in primaries, and the moderates mostly despise Sam Brownback. Sebelius won both times by splitting the moderate Republicans off from the rest of their base, enough voted for Biggs in 2002 against Phill Klein that it was close, and they almost all voted for Morrison against Klein in 2006, when Morrison got more votes than Sebelius.  

To the degree that voters see it as Brownback=Phill Klien, and that they actually believe Tom has a chance, that will determine our fate in November more than anything.  Tom's a solid candidate, much in the mold of the reasonable, pragmatic moderates of both parties--Carlin, Graves, Sebelius, Parkinson--who've held the governor's office.  Right now our main opponent isn't Brownback, who few outside the ultra-conservative bloc like or trust.  Our main opponent is despair and low expectations that run the risk of being self-fulfilling prophecies if people who want Tom to win don't do their part to make it happen.  

[BTW, one minor quibble: Brownback didn't beat Slattery. Slattery vacated the seat to run for governor (which he lost to Bill Graves), and former Dem governor John Carlin lost to Brownback for the open seat.]

[ Parent ]
In my defense with your quibble
I was 12 when that election happened. But yeah, you're right.

But no, Dana, I'll be out in California voting against eMeg. I'm one of the thousands upon thousands of young Kansans who've left the state due to a lack of high-tech economic opportunities.

And we should remember that Holland's win is dependent on him running a kickass campaign, so bring your A-game. Best of luck.

PS- I donated, and I'll make my Mom & Dad do the same and get yard signs.  :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
They get PAID for this crap?
I can tell you- those Ohio numbers are a joke.
Rasmussen has no paying clients, just online subscribers......
Their customers are political junkies with internet access and $20 or more to spare per month.

I subscribe, I signed up back in 2004 when they were more reputable even if already known for a GOP lean in their numbers.  I've thought all cycle about dumping them, but then I get curious about their crosstabs even if only for entertainment value and to share info here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
IMO
$20 is not worth it.
[ Parent ]
You're probably right. What is really driving my behavior is...
...(1) I am a creature of habit; (2) it's on autopay, and I'm a lazy fuck who routinely proscratinates on far more important yet equally simple chores and errands as canceling a Rasmussen subscription.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Consider this: that $20 makes you a partial enabler of Ras
and his dirty work. Feel guilty yet? ;)
[ Parent ]
Take that $20 a month and donate it to candidates!

[ Parent ]
I agree re: Rasmussen
Rasmussen was the bomb back in 2000 and 2001 because they were the only outfit doing consistent polling, the results of which you could read daily without paying for their service.

Now, I wouldn't even ping their web site if they were the last server on earth.

[ Parent ]
Ras Missed Out On IN-Sen and WI-Gov
I would love to see numbers for those two races. I'm guessing IN-Sen is a Lean R and WI-Gov is a Likely R at this point, though I'm interested to see if Tom Barrett can actually consolidate Democrats in the Badger State, since based on previous numbers there's still a lot of undecideds out there.
If even Ras has Alexi up in the IL-Sen race,
Kirk is in big trouble. I think the Dems will hold this seat.
I was thinking that same thing
The numbers on the above post also have Quinn within one or two points of Brady. This is a Ras poll, reminder. It looks like the Republican Party screwed the pooch in Illinois.

The PA numbers are laughable, though. If Toomey is leading, it's no more then by a couple of points.  

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
WV-Sen
Manchin 53 Capito 39
Manchin 65 Ireland 26
If Manchin runs
And Capito says no it is Dem favored. Capito runs against Manchin it leans Dem. Manchin says no, Capito says yes means leans Republican.
[ Parent ]
Sounds right
Although if Capito doesn't run, wouldn't it be safe Democrat? I thought the Republicans didn't have much of a bench in WV?  
[ Parent ]
They'll come up with someone
The environment is too juicy just to concede the race.
[ Parent ]
Especially
since after the debacle at Massachusetts they hope Manchin would go into Coakley mode and they could score a Scott Brown like victory.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Manchin is no Martha Coakley
In fact, it feels like there won't be any Martha Coakley's for the Dems anymore. I think they learned their lesson.  
[ Parent ]
Id certainly hope so!

[ Parent ]
Safe Dem
End of story, unless he appoints Charlie Manson as a placeholder.
[ Parent ]
Quinn gets within 3
I think SSP should start it's own polling firm
You guys seem to have done your research better than some of the other firms out there. Get rid of the Democratic bias and you'd be the ideal replacement for Research 2000.
I think this is a great idea
SSP, you guys need to start a polling firm.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Steve Singiser's Ras-A-Poll-Ooza
I'd go even further: just post a link to Steve Singiser's (almost daily) Ras-A-Poll-Ooza diaries as he writes them, and call it a day.
If he likes to be a masochist and type them up, so be it

(BTW, I stopped reading your "Rasmussen Reports" diaries many many volumes ago. I'm really not sure what caused me to click on this one to learn that it would be the final edition).

Going to disagree...
I like seeing what Rasmussen is polling, even if I don't always buy it. Like it or not, he hasn't become R2K yet, and if this site is going to be comprehensive, I think it needs to be reported.

Just my two cents.  

[ Parent ]
I'm guessing the decision is based in part on limited resources
I wonder if a prominent user were to volunteer, whether the Rasmussen dumps could / would continue. (I am not volunteering.)
[ Parent ]
I skim through it pretty quickly
At this point, I can ballpark where Rasmussen will say a poll is, but I skim to check for new trends.
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 22 | 35 comments

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