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SSP Daily Digest: 7/8 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 8:14 AM EDT


  • AZ-Sen: Props to the Hotline's Sean Sullivan - and to the McCain campaign! Thanks to them, we know that the size of J.D. Hayworth's first ad buy is an amazing $2,100 - and that "the ad will only run on Fox News in Tucson for the entire month of July." This is incredibly pathetic, and it's really too bad that this Matthew Lesko wannabe is going nowhere. A McCain flack gets in a good dig:
  • "That's actually less than he spent on bumper stickers and lapel pins in the first month-and-a-half of his campaign. Sounds like Hayworth really could use some of that free government money he hawked in his infomercial."

  • CO-Sen: Jane Norton says she raised $900K in Q2 and has $600K on hand. Her primary against Ken Buck (who hasn't released any numbers yet) is on August 10th.
  • FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek raised another million bucks in Q2, essentially the same as his hauls in each of the previous two quarters. He has about $4 million on hand - which, as Shira Toeplitz points out, is less than the $5 mil that zillionaire asshole Jeff Greene has already spent on the race.
  • IN-Sen, MO-08: Speaking of bullshit ad buys, Politico's Dave Catanese takes a good close look at several attempts to "earn media" by spending just a few bucks on the airwaves. Catanese's piece includes that quip about Hayworth cited above, and also some digs at Brad Ellsworth (IN-Sen) and Tommy Sowers (MO-08) for their less-than-impressive ad time purchases. A consultant for Dan Coats says that Ellsworth's buy is "very light and brief - not statewide - and about evenly split between cable and broadcast." Meanwhile, Sowers bought "just $6,400 in air time, with most of that on cable television in two counties."
  • SC-Sen: Just click the link. A mouth-agape must-read.
  • FL-Gov: Zillionaire whacko Rick Scott is challenging Florida's version of the "millionaire's amendment," which provides matching funds to candidates whose opponents exceed a certain spending cap - in this case, a pretty portly $25 million. You may recall that Crazy Jack Davis successfully challenged the federal millionaire's amendment before the Supreme Court in 2008, and that the SCOTUS blocked Arizona from distributing matching funds last month, so I'd give Scott decent odds of prevailing.
  • GA-10 (via email): Russell Edwards (no, I'd never heard of him either) is a Democrat running against Rep. Paul Broun in this dark red 61% McCain district. Still, he managed to raised just over $100K (from "nearly 500 individual donors") in the second quarter, which seems pretty good for a guy running in these circumstances.
  • ID-01: Rep. Walt Minnick kicked some fundraising ass last quarter, pulling in $410K and leaving him with $1.1 mil on-hand. Anyone care to guess what GOPer Raul Labrador will show?
  • SC-02: The otherwise seemingly invisible Rob Miller will be in DC today, doing some relatively low-dollar fundraisers. But it's not like the guy - who lucked into millions thanks to Joe Wilson's undying outburst - is really hurting for money (he had $1.7 mil on hand as of Q1). No word on his Q2 haul as of yet, though.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/8 (Morning Edition)
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    And they Greene has no political instincts.  Somebody with that much self-centered narcissism is bound for politics.

    I would totally buy an Alvin Greene doll!!!
    An Alvin Greene action doll would not only make a great Christmas gift it could also be an excellent addition to my collection of political memorabilia!

    So somebody please tell me where I can pre-order one!

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Sigh
    Time was that a post tagged with "SC-Sen" and described as "a mouth-agape must-read" would link to some hilariously loony Jim DeMint anecdote.

    Amazing the things a low-turnout primary will do.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large


    So who's crazier, DeMint or Greene?


    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Greene, I'm sorry to say
    But DeMint is a lot more dangerous

    [ Parent ]
    Greene is a disaster
    The GOP are using the tag line "Greene-Sheheen Democratic machine".  The worst thing is the rest of the Democrats ticket is remarkably strong.  Gov., Lt. Gov., Atty General, Super. Education all have potential to win.  

    The AG candidate reported 350k raised this quarter.  More than the GOP candidate (Alan Wilson, son of Joe 'you lie' Wilson) raised since day one.  A strong 'establishment' GOP candidate lost in the primary, and that support should end up with the Dem, Matthew Richardson. Richardson has a great resume too.  

    Hopefully, SLED finds something that forces Greene from the race.  


    SC Dems should hope Greene fades away quietly, which could happen......
    There's good reason to think Greene won't actually wage a campaign, since he hasn't waged one the entire cycle.  He's getting interviews because he's a sudden curiosity, but that will fade if he doesn't actively nurse it.

    If Greene finally leaves the news, I think his association with Democrats will fade from voters' minds.  That doesn't mean we won't lose everything anyway, because South Carolina is a conservative Republican state in a Republican year.  But at least Greene doesn't have to further narrow whatever path to victory might exist for Sheheen and others.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    FL-Sen: Rasmussen strikes again with another foul ball to the right......
    They now have Rubio up 36-34 on Crist, with Meek at 15.  They previously had a 37-37 tie, and Crist with a small lead before that.

    They still have Crist at 56-42 favorability and 53-45 job approval, both down slightly from before but yet very healthy.

    If Rasmussen has Rubio up 2, then in reality Crist is winning.

    My metaview on this race is that if Crist maintains personal favorables and job approvals both above 50, he'll end up winning going away on election day.  He won't break 50 in vote share, but he'll break 40.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Some races he seems to get
    Others he goes way out on a limb. This one perhaps more than any other. No other outfit has found Rubio ahead since March.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...


    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen disappoints me
    Up until about a month or so ago, you could just add on 5-10 points for the Dem in their polls and get a pretty good idea of where the race was, but now, with some of their overly D-team friendly results (such as NC-Sen) they aren't even reliable in that way anymore, really.

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

    [ Parent ]
    Alvin Greene's Jobs Plan
    You gotta hand it to him for at least being creative.

    Well,
    even if those dolls would be successful, they wouldnt lead to jobs in SC, they would be manufactured in China...

    33, living in Germany  

    [ Parent ]
    Boxer is 41/52
    favorable/unfavorable in California according to the Field Poll:

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...


    She is also leading
    Despite no campaign and her opponent spending millions already. Leans Dem.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't think that's true
    What you wrote would be true for Brown/Whitman.

    The financial disparity and media attention isn't as extreme with Fiorina/Boxer.

    Besides, Brown actually is fairly popular in California (or at least less hated than Whitman).

    The same cannot be said about Fiorina.


    [ Parent ]
    By november Fiorina will be hated
    She has been such a screw up the ads write themselves. Right now nobody knows about her awful tenure at HP, by november everybody will.  

    [ Parent ]
    Seriously?
    It won't matter.  Int he past decade, every company on earth has made bad decisions, laid off workers, harmed the so-called common man.  Everyone blames the govt and corporations.

    So a battle between a long-time senator and a former CEO is a wash.


    [ Parent ]
    Not as extreme
    Only because Whitman's spending is way beyond extreme. Fiorina had to spend to beat Campbell in the primary and did so.

    [ Parent ]
    conspiracy is right. It's not quite the same extreme as the Gov race, but still the same basics......
    Fiorina blanketed the airwaves with TV ads to win the primary, and unlike Whitman there was no strong and effective pushback by her primary opponents.  Campbell just didn't have the money, and DeVore just wasn't very effective.  Poizner tore down Whitman much more effectively than DeVore attacked Fiorina.

    Meanwhile, while Boxer is a serious campaigner and not following an eccentric path like Brown, she's neither blanketed the airwaves yet.

    So Fiorina has had much more of a free pass than Whitman.

    Really, all things considered Boxer and Brown both are in OK shape.  I worry about Brown because he could piss it away, but Boxer is a tough campaigner who peaks at the right time.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    And that time is after Labor Day
    All candidates need to do is maintain over the summer.  Once Labor Day comes around campaigns really need to get their act in gear.

    I'm worried neither about Boxer's campaign skills nor fundraising/spending.  This race doesn't really worry me much at all to be honest.


    [ Parent ]
    ID-01
    "Anyone care to guess what GOPer Raul Labrador will show?"

    20 bucks and a sandwich?

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


    I'll be surprised if he doesn't have decent fundraising totals......
    I'm not necessarily expecting anything great, but his numbers should be decent.  He's not Some Dude, he's a state legislator.  And this is a prime pickup opportunity that I can't imagine Republican donors will just let slip away.  Remember, it wasn't Labrador who screwed up in the primary, it was the NRCC-backed guy who he crushed.  I see no reason not to take Labrador seriously unless he shows weak Q2 fundraiser numbers.  If his numbers really are weak, that validates the NRCC having shunned him in the primary, even though their choice of Ward proved a folly.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    If his post-primary fundraising is weak...
    It'll definitely swing this election in favor of Minnick.  According to an Idaho native, Dems in Boise and the panhandle are calling him "The Labrador Deceiver" after this: http://www.idahopress.com/news...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Alvin Greene
    I'm starting to think he was planted by the DSCC as comic relief in a seat they knew they were going to lose anyway.

    26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

    Two tea leaves of midterm hope re the economy......
    Initial unemployment compensation claims down a whopping 21K, down to 454K total for the week.  It's just one week, but it's a big drop, and since it coincides with the Census Bureau still shedding temp workers who I'd expect to file claims if they don't have something else lined up, I hope it's the start of a trend.

    Second tea leaf is the Dow and other indexes popping back up this week.  Hopefully fear subsides and hope digs in a little more.

    In my view we need to see 6-figure job growth monthly the rest of the cycle to have a chance of making people believe the tide is really turning.  Really, probably 150K per month is what I'm guessing we'll need to give real hope.  But I just don't know if we'll get numbers like that conssitently.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Yup, I saw that earlier, that is GOLD! The only problem attacking Angle is...
    ...it's so hard to remember all the material available to use against her.  Sometimes I forget completely she wants nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain or that she wants to criminalize abortions for rape victims and incest victims.

    I'm all aboard with Team Reid and allies focusing first on social security and Medicare, as it takes time for a message to sink in, but I hope all this other stuff also makes it into TV ads.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Libertarian my ass
    These whack jobs just love government when it suits their crazy views.

    [ Parent ]
    It wouldn't suprise me if
    popular former Republican governor Kenny Guinn endorsed Reid, which would be big. She sparred with him a lot as a legislator too. It's strange to think the GOP has finally found a candidate worse than Bill Sali.

    [ Parent ]
    Yep, I think were on the cusp in terms of the election...
    It's not too late to see some positive news about the economy help turn things around for the Democrats. But it's almost too late. We probably need a decent August jobs report, and more of a stock market climb.

    Still, as you pointed out, there is hope!  


    [ Parent ]
    Yikes
    There are only three more reports before election day! But since "3" is my lucky number I'll take that as a positive.

    [ Parent ]
    Devastating Democracy Corps poll depresses me, shows we're almost dead......
    If there's going to be a turnaround that helps us, it's gotta be real big and real fast, because this is very, very, very bad news.

    http://www.democracycorps.com/...

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Worst case scenario
    There are better polls out there than that one. Still, if people are stupid enough to believe the things they do as illustrated in the internals there then fair play to them.

    [ Parent ]
    I view Democracy Corps as one of the best polls out there......
    This gang is very comprehensive and know what they're doing.  And the pollsters involved are all good Democrats, they're not short-changing us or trying to "overcompensate" for their own personal politics.

    The only thing in the internals that surprises me is the "socialist" meme sticking, IF the graph is corret and not an error in production, and I read it right; supposedly, by a 55-39 margin likely voters think "socialist" is appropriate to describe Obama.  That one is very hard to believe.

    But everything else rings true and is consistent with other polling.  People by a mid-to-high-single digit margin disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy and the oil spill, and think the stimulus was a useless waste of borrowed money.  This all reflects very poor messaging strategy by the White House.  They put almost $300 billion in tax cuts in the stimulus, and people think it was all a spending orgy.  Did you know that Bush got a $150 billion tax cut stimulus in 2008 that Obama as a Senator voted for?  So we've had nearly $500 billion in tax cuts over 3 years in "stimulus," only a slightly smaller amount than the spending in the 2009 stimulus.  No one knows that, but it's the truth.

    On health care, too, we lost the messaging war during the legislative battle, and only very slowly and very recently are we starting to gain a few converts in the voting universe.  Claire McCaskill, for her part, said bluntly theh health care reform won't be popular by November or even by 2012, but a decade from now it will be popular.

    Messaging fail has been very big in the Obama Administration.

    For the record, I do really try to understand where the broader public is coming from, I do try to understand how people who are not liberals or Democrats see things.  And I can't say I do that great a job.  But Bill Clinton does, and I think he said it all when he said until people feel like they're winning, they're not going to give you credit.  It's not hard to see that with the economy struggling, recovery in doubt in many people's minds, and the oil spill disaster, most Americans don't feel like they're winning.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    They didn't do very well in NJ
    But I agree with much of your post.

    [ Parent ]
    Please remind me, I don't remember NJ. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Corzine ahead when he obviously wasn't
    Nate also rates them as below average.

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

    I have no doubt the GOP are ahead with likely voters but I doubt it is by six points. I also think active campaigns will get many Democratic voters out of their stupor and out to vote.


    [ Parent ]
    I agree with you...
    The Democracy Corps poll is not good news, but there's still time to turn things around. Also, it helps that we get to run against the likes of Paul, Angle and Kirk (among others), in the Senate, although I'm beginning to really worry about the House.  

    [ Parent ]
    Rumor: Palin may replace Steele
    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...

    And, reports CBS News Senior White House Correspondent Bill Plante, there's talk in GOP circles that Sarah Palin should replace him.

    Replacing one kind of crazy with another?


    The man himself says
    "I ain't going anywhere"

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...


    [ Parent ]
    And he's not...
    At least until after this election cycle/or he finally crosses a bridge too far.  

    [ Parent ]
    Palin would actually be a perfect pick
    If she's kept in the back and used only for publicity and fundraising.  And when she makes gaffes, hers are a rallying point for conservatives, not a palm to forehead moment like Steele's usually are.

    [ Parent ]
    I disagree completely. It's a bad marriage for both sides......
    Regarding the RNC, she's just too inflammatory.  She rallies Democrats against Republicans at least as much as she rallies Republicans, and moreover nonpartisan voters overwhelmingly dislike her so she just further hinders the party's image rebuilding effort.  Plus, a party committee chair has to make a lot of important political judgments, in-house and externally, that I don't think Palin has the skill-set to handle.  You need strong infrstructural organizational skills and also a lot of discipline, and Palin doesn't have those things.  Steele has shown what can happen when you lack that skill set, although his rhetorical explosions overshadow those problems.

    From Palin's angle, although I doubt Palin ultimately will run for President, I get the sense from her behavior and Marc Ambinder's well-informed reporting that she wants to keep the door open.  Being RNC Chair kills that.  And there's no other reason for her to want that job that I can think of.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Given the source
    I'll more than take this.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


    Is Scotty starting his trend to the accurate early this cycle?


    [ Parent ]
    No, he's always been half-and-half between "correct ballpark" and "crazy outlier"......
    Scotty has done this all cycle.  Half his polls make sense, half are outliers.  Actually, the outliers include not just crazy ones, but some relatively mild outliers, like his new FL-Sen poll that came out this morning showing Rubio up 2 on Crist.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    "correct ballpark" and "crazy outlier"
    Which leads to his five point average GOP lean. And I think that is also true of his generic ballot and presidential approval too. I think that is borne out by the totality of polling which says quite clear to me that the Republicans have a small lead with likely voters on the former and Obama is roughly even on the latter.

    [ Parent ]
    Anyway, this is really good news...
    Considering many of us had given this seat up for dead a couple of months ago.  

    [ Parent ]
    I never gave it up for dead, on the contrary I thought Alexi was in good shape when...
    ...polling after Broadway Bank was seized still showed him down only mid-single digits, and Kirk was nowhere remotely near 50.  I figured if Giannoulias didn't implode then, he was still very much in the game.  It's Illinois, it's Obama's home state, and they still support him and his party there.  They want their favorite son of their favorite party to succeed.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    RE: GA 10
    We released our new website today as well so you can find out more about Russell


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