Field Poll (pdf) (6/22-7/5, likely voters, 3/9-15 in parens):
Jerry Brown (D): 44 (43)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (46)
Undecided: 13 (11)
(MoE: ±3.2%)
The Field Poll is back after a hiatus with its first look at the general election in California in more than three months; the news for Jerry Brown is so-so, with a negligible lead over Meg Whitman. Of course, that's a definite improvement over the previous poll, where Whitman led by 3 (taken during that brief period where Whitman had the airwaves to herself and several other pollsters found a narrow lead for her). Nevertheless, the general reaction of the punditry today is that the poll is a negative for Brown (take TPM for instance, where the headline is "Bad News for Brown" and the teaser reads "The latest poll of the California governor's race shows Whitman pulling to within one point of Jerry Brown."
Brown's favorables are mediocre, at 42/40 (not much changed since March, where he was at 41/37, but certainly a change from March 2009, when he hadn't been besmirched by negative ads and was at 50/25). Whitman, though, has taken much more of a pounding: she's underwater now at 40/42, down from 40/27 in March, having gotten hit by both Steve Poizner and Brown's surrogates. Although he should be cheered by the collateral damage to Whitman, there are some red flags here for Brown, in terms of how he performs among what should be the strongest Democratic constituencies: Latinos (among whom he leads by only 11, 50-39 perhaps thanks to some Spanish-language advertising by Whitman... he led 54-25 among Latinos in March) and the 18-39 set (among whom Whitman actually leads, 45-42, though that's a drop from her 46-36 lead in March). Brown's strength comes from those 50 and older, who are the ones old enough to remember his last turn in office, which happened to coincide with a time when California seemed to suck a lot less. If Brown can solidify his standing with young and Latino voters, he should be in more solid shape for November. |
