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SSP Daily Digest: 7/7 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Jul 07, 2010 at 8:09 AM EDT


  • IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Nothing like collateral damage on the campaign trail. Mark Kirk has been trying to make a weird issue out of the fact that Alexi Giannoulias didn't pay any income taxes last year. It's weird because Giannoulias lost millions of dollars last year, and it would be a little hard to tax a negative number. But it's also been a foolhardy crusade, because Kirk's ticket-mate, gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady, is in the exact same position as Giannoulias - and so Kirk was compelled to criticize his fellow Republican as well, for a total non-issue. D'oh!
  • Meanwhile, Giannoulias fired back with a hit of his own, attacking Mark Kirk for pulling a Kasich and refusing to release his tax returns. But wait, there's more! Kirk's also been busy pulling yet another Kirk, too:

    Also during Kirk's news conference, the congressman would not discuss the latest question about his military career, this time from a statement he made in a Sun-Times questionnaire that he was "shot at" while serving with a Dutch armor unit in Kandahar.

  • IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth is out with his first ad of the campaign. As always, NWOTSOTB (that's "No Word On The Size Of The Buy" in English - get used to seeing that around here).
  • OH-Sen: Cap-and-trade has proven to be perilous territory for more than one Republican candidate this cycle, with flip-flops as persistent as vuvuzela blasts at a World Cup match. That's because trading emissions credits had long been one of those rare non-insane Republican ideas that a lot of Republicans had cottoned to. But because Dems have embraced the idea, too, it's now political poison in GOP circles. So, no surprise to see Rob Portman blasting cap-and-trade a "job killer" - and then getting instantly hammered by Dems for having supported it during his career in Congress. Whoops!
  • GA-Gov: Dem Roy Barnes is out with a new ad whaling on the idiocy regularly perpetrated by Republicans in the state legislature - like attempting to ban stem cell research, passing bills "about microchips in the brain," and talking about seceding from the union - which he says makes it hard to recruit jobs to the state. NWOTSOTB.
  • HI-Gov: Outgoing Gov. Linda Lingle (R) vetoed a civil unions bill yesterday, her final day to do so. Whether this becomes a potent issue on the campaign trail remains to be seen, but at least two of the big three candidates in the race have come out with statements on Lingle's action: Neil Abercrombie (he's for civil unions) and Duke Aiona (he's against them).
  • FL-25: GOP state Rep. David Rivera, a hardline extremist when it comes to supporting the Cuban embargo, has taken some heat for his alleged friendship with businessman Ariel Pereda. Pereda has been an active proponent of trade with Cuba, and Rivera has denied that the two have a relationship. But Mariana Cancio, another Republican candidate, posted a video of Pereda standing behind Rivera at Rivera's campaign kick-off.
  • IN-09: Republican Todd Young has an internal out from Public Opinion Strategies (feel like I've been seeing that name a lot) which shows him trailing Baron Hill by 41-34. Note that the poll had just 300 respondents. (When you click the link, scroll all the way to the bottom for the poll press release.)
  • LA-03: In a bit of a throwaway sentence in a bigger article about the start of the candidate qualifying period in Louisiana, the Times-Picayune notes that Dems are still trying to recruit interim Lt. Gov. Scott Angelle to run for Rep. Charlie Melancon's open House seat.
  • LA-05: Teabagging businessman (but I'm guessing Some Dude) Todd Slavant is planning to challenge notorious Democrat-cum-Republican turncoat Rodney Alexander in the GOP primary. I tend to doubt that Alexander will meet with Parker Griffith's fate, though.
  • MO-08: Dem Tommy Sowers is out with his first ad, a semi-biographical spot which features his "combat bible." NWOTSOTB.
  • MT-AL: This is a weird echo of something in the not-too-distant past of Montana's political world. Denny Rehberg is suing the Billings fire department for allegedly failing to contain a fire that occurred on his property almost exactly two years ago. The fire chief is saying that saving, you know, lives is their number one priority (none were lost) - and pointing out that the folks who worked to put out the blaze had given up their holiday weekend. Oh, and that odd rhyme? Folks with keen memories will recall that former Montana Sen. Conrad Burns went out of his way to insult bone-weary firefighters to their faces who had schlepped all the way from Virginia to put out blazes back in 2006.
  • Iowa: Ugh: Iowa SoS Michael Mauro reports that the 100,000 voter registration edge Democrats held in the Hawkeye State just six months ago has been cut in half. However, Mauro points out that the Dems had a 40K deficit in 2002 and yet both Sen. Tom Harkin and then-Gov. Tom Vilsack won re-election.
  • Maryland: Candidate filing closed in Maryland yesterday. Click the link for a full list of candidates. Incidentally, only five states still have open filing periods: LA, WI, NY, HI, and DE, which brings up the rear with a July 30th deadline.
  • Fundraising: Reid Wilson has a few fundraising nums we haven't seen before, including figures from AL-07, LA-03, and MA-10. Shelia Smoot's weak haul in AL-07 is disappointing but not surprising.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/7 (Morning Edition)
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    New Field Pol
    The gubernatorial race is almost a dead heat.

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

    Lots of quotes there but I agree most with the one that says "...it is a sign of Brown's strength that he is running even with Whitman despite a significantly smaller and quieter campaign."



    Brown's key problem is Whitman's overperforming among Hispanics
    He's only up 50-39, when he really oughta be up 65-35.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Jerry Brown
    I hope Brown wins this race, not because I think Brown is a great candidate, but because Whitman scares the hell out of me.  Brown will have his work cut out to win this race, but I imagine he will pull it off.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    She, like many of these GOP women candidates
    Have very little working knowledge of politics and/or issues.  Who the hell runs for Governor having not voted most of the past decade?  That's absurd.

    [ Parent ]
    The news story on the poll was badly misleading b/c it omitted that Brown has IMPROVED...
    ...since the last Field Poll in March, which had Whitman leading 46-43!  So Brown up 1, Whitman down 3!  Of course, this is really margin-of-error movement, which means not necessarily any movement at all.

    But the news report made a big deal of Brown's lead with Hispanics getting cut down from 29 to 11 since the last poll, and if you're going to compare a subsample trend, an honest disclosure would note that the topline has moved the opposite direction!  That means other racial demographics must have trended toward Brown in the polling, but that's not mentioned.

    The whole tone of the news story narrative was how Whitman's campaign was working well, particularly with Hispanics, but the poll doesn't demonstrate that at all.  Rather, it shows movement among subsamples that may or may not be real since the margins of error are extremely high, and a largely static toss-up race overall.

    I'm disappointed in the news story, and it just illustrates how poorly political journalists understand polling.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    First Read
    Was worse saying it is evidence of "blunders" by the Brown campaign. No it isn't. It is a tie because she has spent millions and millions and he has spent jack. I suspect they have an actual strategy here. He will start spending when people are paying attention.

    [ Parent ]
    I actually don't necessarily challenge that Brown is bungling, but this poll...
    ...actually supports the opposite argument that you just made.

    That's the thing, the picture isn't necessarily clear.

    I think it's right to believe that if Whitman is airing positive and negative ads while Brown is dark, that hurts Brown.  I think it's right to believe that if Brown isn't doing anything to make himself more acutely visible in a state where it's hard to make yourself visible, then that hurts him.

    That said, yes, the fact that Whitman has spent so many scores of millions of bucks and still has made ZERO headway in what is the state's best poll (the Field Poll reigns supreme in California), suggests that at worst for Brown, even if he's making mistakes he's getting away with it scot-free.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Isn't that what I said?
    He is saving his resources and the best she can get is a tie.

    [ Parent ]
    Just hope Brown has airtime reserved
    in Sept and Oct.

    (If his campaign is not on the ball, I would not be surprised if eMeg has bought out all CA TV airtime already)


    [ Parent ]
    I think we'd probably know that, since that's what Hickenlooper just did......
    Hickenlooper in CO-Gov just blew his entire wad, all but $36K, on advance-purchase TV time.  You get a discount if you buy now, so that's what he did.

    I'm guessing if Brown did that, we'd know.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    May I ask how?
    I have no idea if such time can be reserved with deposits in CA, as opposed to full payment.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm guessing it would come out any of several ways......
    First, I suspect reserving TV time is publicly-available information.  There are media watchers who monitor political ad buys and reveal that stuff in political news reports and on blogs.  If someone made that big an advance-buy, it probably would get noticed and get out.

    Second, campaigns have to reveal what they've spent money on in their filings, and the quarter just ended on June 30.  So if Brown made a big buy before July 1, we'll know very soon from examining his spending.

    And campaigns might actually like to publicize a big ad buy to get some mojo for it.  That can cut either way, and they often want to hide it as proprietary campaign information as long as possible, but sometimes they like to advertise it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, and didn't I just say you just said that? :-) (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    HI-Gov
    Excellent, now people can stop pretending that Lingle is a moderate. Hopefully if she tries to run for Senate or anything else there will be lots of "pink money" slamming her down.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Her popularity has dropped
    She's at something like 47-51 favorable in the last Rasmussen poll.

    What a surprise, though, that Mufi Hanneman hasn't issued a statement. He's trying to tiptoe through the primary without taking a stand on the issue, when in reality he's anti-gay rights.


    [ Parent ]
    Have Any Background News
    On the House's decision to not even attempt to override this veto?

    [ Parent ]
    They didn't have the numbers
    My guess is they're expecting that Abercrombie will win in November, so they can just re-pass it next year without having to whip the conservadem contingent (which probably wouldn't have worked anyway, given that they didn't pass it with a veto-proof majority in the first place).

    [ Parent ]
    SC-sen greene's plan to bring jobs to SC
    make action figures of HIM.  oh my monkey fighting god...

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl...  

    hat tip taegan goddard politicalwire.com

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


    At this point, all we can do is laugh
    I looked at his website (he at least does finally have one).  It looks like a 9 year old did it.  Under his issues page, he has such in-depth discussion of the issues that under "Justice" he advocates "Making sure the punishment fits the crime" -- and that's the extent of it!  As for education, he's for "better facilities.

    Remember that really embarassing video with ETV?  Yeah, that's there, too.  

    Oh, dear ......


    [ Parent ]
    Greene
    Greene claims to have a B.A. in Political Science from the University of South Carolina, is this true or did I read that incorrectly?  

    Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

    23, Democrat, IA-2


    [ Parent ]
    That's what his website says


    [ Parent ]
    Not to be insulting to the guy
    But what are the chances that this is true?  For the record I do not have a Bachelor's and am not seeking one so I have no room to talk.  

    Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

    23, Democrat, IA-2


    [ Parent ]
    I sort-of had the same thought
    Maybe not right, but so much seems a mystery about this guy.  For what it's worth, the Wikipedia page on him also mentions a BA from the University of South Carolina in 2000.

    [ Parent ]
    You need to spend time on college sports message boards......
    There are a lot of stupid people who graduate from college, a lot of people who make Alvin Greene look very good.  I'm on CycloneReport.com daily, and it's a great site with a lot of smart people, but there are some Cyclone fans who are actual college graduates and yet just total dimwits.

    South Carolina is not a great school, it's a garden variety state university.  "Genius" is not the norm there.

    It's completely believable that Greene has a BA in poli sci from South Carolina.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I believe that all members of congress
    Have at least either a BA or a BS, and many of them are idiots (I'm looking at you, Mr. I-took-one-too-many - baseballs-to-the-head!)

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Actually, no
    http://www.allgov.com/Unusual_...
    Currently, there are 27 representatives and one senator who do not have a college degree. Some of those identified by the Scripps Howard News Service as serving without a degree are Representatives Solomon Ortiz (D-TX), Steve King (R-IA) and Doc Hastings (R-WA). The lone senator is Mark Begich of Alaska.


    [ Parent ]
    Huh, you learn something new every day
    Still, my point remains, there are plenty of idiots in Congress who have degrees, after all a college degree isn't really proof of intelligence but proof of being able to pass classes (so says the guy who just graduated from UNM :P)

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    I suspect there are a number of congressmen without college degrees
    who are smarter and more successful than some congressional idiots with random letters after their names.

    [ Parent ]
    Michele Bachmann even had a JD
    Dont need common sense to be book smart to the say the least

    [ Parent ]
    In fact, Bachmann has an LL.M.
    An advanced law degree--in her case, in tax law.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually, don't need to be book smart to get the degree, either!......
    There's a reason why people who graduate toward the bottom of their class, or go to an acutely crappy school, do so.

    You can have substandard intellectual capacity and still get those letters after your name.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Valid point
    I didn't want to get caught somehow making a statement that might insult the school or the educational system.  

    Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

    23, Democrat, IA-2


    [ Parent ]
    n=300
    A sample size of 300 is pretty standard for a Congressional District.

    Hell, that's also improvement for Hill compared to...
    ...a SUSA poll commissioned by Firedoglake months ago, which showed Hill getting crushed by Mike Sodrel.  I vaguely recall that poll had Hill in the 30s, and Sodrel breaking 50.

    Now Young's own internal shows better numbers for Baron Hill than independent SUSA showed months ago.

    It just goes to show how erratic and unreliable disclosed House polling can be.  I don't doubt House members and challengers have very good internal polling, but what gets released isn't necessarily reliable, nor is public House polling necessarily reliable.  Still, at least it's something to chew on.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    And Sodrel had an internal that had him behind
    Those FDL were not to be trusted. If POS can't even show a GOP lead here then perhaps Hill isn't in as much trouble as we previously thought.

    [ Parent ]
    MT-AL
    Looks like we have someone non-crazy this year:

    http://montanaformcdonald.com

    While Rehberg will be hard to unseat, it's always good to have someone competent running in case this issue (or another one) starts to to damage him.

    For those of you who don't remember, our 2008 nominee's strategy was to backpack around the state and to "talk to people he met on the trail" about the issues of the day and his bid for office.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08


    Ehhh
    still better than Bob Kelleher for the Republicans. I usually like Democrats, but I was rooting for him...

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

    [ Parent ]
    Ellsworth Ad
    I think the Ellsworth ad is pretty good, and sets up how he's going to broadly frame this campaign -- the local law man vs. the corporate lobbyist.  I'm still waiting for the bombshell ad (probably will come early fall) that incorporates Dan Coats saying North Carolina is a better place to live than Indiana.

    Maybe it's just me, but......
    KNOWING he's a sitting Congressman, Ellsworth's talk of being a sheriff and his attacking Washington as if he's never been there, that just struck me as very misleading and didn't work for me.  Now, I realize that not everyone knows he's a sitting Congressman, but he is, and he can't really run from that.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm on Ellsworth's side, and maybe this ad ultimately works.  This is one ad that as a deep-in-the-weeds campaign junkie, I'm not equipped to read how it would play to an audience of persuadable Indiana midterm voters.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Remember Dave Reichert (WA-08)
    I get the impression that the Sheriff schtick still works for him too.

    [ Parent ]
    Very different, Reichert's became a celebrity AS a sheriff......
    Reichert was sheriff when the Green River killings were solved.  That's what made him.

    Ellsworth doesn't have anything like that.  Not that he should, because few people do and it's completely out of one's control whether any crisis occurs on one's watch.

    But Reichert did have that, and it's the sort of thing that can be milked for a long time to remind people why they like you.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Ellsworth's campaign seems to depend on it
    at least so far. So the viability of his campaign depends on people buying his "heritage" in law enforcement.

    So either you're incorrect or Ellsworth's campaign is flawed.


    [ Parent ]
    Did Reichert really have any hand in solving the murders
    Or was he just the guy in charge at the time?  Rudy Guiliani is the most extreme example and hell, even Bush won pretty much because of his shit hole response to 9/11 by looking decisive and like a leader.

    Crisis really does bring about opportunity, and in politics, it's a largely undeserved boost.  On the flip though, if a crisis happens under your watch and it all goes horribly wrong and it isnt really your fault, you are effed.

    The people who ruined the economy are the ones who are about to be voted back into office.


    [ Parent ]
    Yes he did
    He was on the Green River case something like 15 years before he became Sheriff, from at least 1984 according to Wikipedia.  

    The killer wasnt't even arrested until 2001, nearly 20 years after the killings started.


    [ Parent ]
    Point taken
    And you're right, from his ad, website, speeches, etc. -- one would never know he was a sitting Congressman from what he says about himself.  But, he's only been there for less than four years, and from his 2006 campaign that sent him to Congress onward, his experience in law enforcement has always been what he's used as his major selling point.  But I agree he can't pretend he doesn't know where the mens room in the Capitol is!

    I do think the comparison to Coats still will work, in that he's a guy who was in the House for 8 years, the Senate for 10, and now a long-time lobbyist.


    [ Parent ]
    Being a Sheriff is like being a Marine
    You are always one.

    [ Parent ]
    Curious
    Did you type this on purpose?

    Democrat-cum-Republican turncoat Rodney Alexander


    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    While I don't speak much Latin
    I think "cum" in this context is a Latin term for "become" or "turned"

    [ Parent ]
    From my year of Latin
    Cum=along with.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Cum usually means with
    like cum laude (with honors), but in this case it seems more like it should mean turned, just judging from context.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    My understanding
    is that cum didn't mean "with" until the Middle Ages. But I think in this case, the usage of "cum" is probably inapt. I don't think I've ever seen it used before except in cases where someone did both things concurrently, perhaps such as "President-cum-author, Barack Obama."

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    What a wonderful birthday present for me
    Thank you Republican Party, you guys really know how to make my day :D

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    Iowa registration numbers
    It's worrying, because so much of the Democratic advantage came from new registrants in 2008. Don't bank on most of those people voting in an off-year election.

    No-party voters are still a plurality in Iowa and in most of our state legislative districts. If Democratic incumbents are able to hold their own among independents, they can often overcome a small GOP advantage in registrations. Not only were Harkin and Vilsack re-elected in 2002, we picked up seats in the state legislature.

    Direct voter contacts and the success of our early voting program will determine whether Democrats hold the Iowa House and how much our majority shrinks in the Iowa Senate.


    Delaware
    Politico says July 30 is the primary, not the filing deadline. I assume they made a mistake?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Looking further
    yep, they did, seeing as how they also put Delaware's primary on 9/14. They also list VT's primary as both 8/24 and 9/14.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Did those states change their dates
    and it was never updated?

    [ Parent ]
    OH-Sen: Brunner unlikely to officially endorse Fisher
    Jennifer Coakley
    She will be very much to blame (not totally) if Fisher loses. Imagine how much better his CoH would be in comparison to Portman without her quixotic campaign.

    [ Parent ]
    That's no excuse
    Ohio's primary was on May 4.  Fisher has six months between then and the general election, and if he can't raise the dough in that span of time, well, that's not anybody's fault but his.  That's basically what everybody was saying about Brunner in the primary, that if she couldn't raise money than she couldn't win.  Well, as it turned out, everybody was right.  

    Part of the problem with Fisher is that people just...don't...like him.  He's cold and clammy, and doesn't do a good job in debates or stump speeches for the most part.  He doesn't fire up the base.  That's the biggest reason for his fundraising woes.

    Based on the primary results compared with the polls, it's too bad that Brunner didn't have enough money to contend because if she did, she'd probably be the nominee right now.  Fisher has to do better if he's going to win this race.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    "Excuse"
    Now that is a bit rich. An example being her reasoning for not endorsing him when she has encouraged her supporters to back Elaine Marshall in another state.

    [ Parent ]
    And I made no reference
    To his fundraising from now on. I have no doubt he will raise enough money. My point was about Portman having the post-primary period all to himself because Fisher had to waste his CoH on Brunner.

    [ Parent ]
    Brunner needs to suck it up and endorse
    She lost the primary, that's a shame for her and I sympathize, but that's life as a politician, sometimes you don't win the primary. There's simply not a good reason for her not to endorse Fisher and just be a good soldier for the party. This borders on infantile behavior.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Regarding HI-Gov
    I believe she cited the sanctity of marriage as part of her reason to veto - She's been divorced twice >.<  sigh

    But remember
    she's SOOOOOO moderate!!!!1

    lol, Republican Party.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Oh Mark Kirk
    Hey, do you guys remember when Mark Kirk was supposed to be the awesomely formidable, near-ideal candidate who could win a Senate seat even in blue Illinois? Ah, those were the days....

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    Weak sauce, Tommy Sowers
    I hope the ad buy's not too big with that ad--did anyone watch it? It's a good idea, but why does he talk so slowly? His delivery is just ... off. Maybe it's just me.

    On the plus side, he reminded voters he's a Christian and a veteran (and a hottie), and I actually like that he's attacking Emerson directly. He's gonna need to to knock off an incumbent that regularly wins with 70% of the vote. But hey, anti-incumbent fever, baby, catch it.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    Rasmussen clockwork
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Man, this dude irritates me.


    I buy Marshall at 37
    Burr at 52, not as much, 45-46? Yes, that is what I believe to be accurate enough.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

    [ Parent ]
    I believe it
    Though I suspect he is under 50 in reality. It was the previous one that was unbelievable and we all said so. His new rankings are almost a bigger joke - he just moved this all the way from tossup to solid. Based entirely on his own polling of course!

    [ Parent ]
    It occurs to me this election might be a battle of two pollsters...
    PPP (which feels like with the implosion of R2K has become our default pollster) vs. Rassmussen. In the case of North Carolina, I sorta believe the Rassmussen poll more, mainly because the PPP poll had the electorate as too Democratic for this election cycle.

    But I need to add that I don't have a huge amount of faith in Elaine Marshall in any event, at this point. So my biases might be coming through.  


    [ Parent ]
    Problem is, their numbers will dovetail with all the numbers after Labor Day......
    That's what happens with Rasmussen, they have outliers all cycle until late, when they mysteriously dovetail with everyone else.

    I was just looking at a Real Clear Politics chart of 2008 Presidential election polling, and it was striking how Rasmussen was such a pro-McCain outlier for most of the year.  This was when Democratic enthusiasm was sky high and Republicans were depressed, so partisan intensity didn't explain Rasmussen's polling results.  Then, the last 2-3 months, Rasmussen's numbers moved toward the mean.  And they still blew it in a bunch of the closest battleground states, missing the winner in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Indiana, and calling Pennsylvania and Nevada a lot closer than they proved to be.

    I expect we'll start to see almost everyone providing reliable numbers in September.  Rasmussen might still have a GOP house effect, but it will lessen.  If not, then Scotty will see his reputation far apart.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Oh, and the big problem with PPP was NOT their sample......
    PPP uses a soft likely voter screen, and they've done well with it.

    But their inclusion of the Libertarian candidate as a choice really threw off the results.  They had the Libertarian at 10%, which is bullshit.  The Libertarian will be lucky to get 1%, and probably less.

    A reliable 2-way poll is what we really need to gauge the state of the race.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah but...
    If their sample tended to portray a more Democratic electorate than is likely in November, isn't that a problem? Totally agree with you on the libertarian thing, however.

    Also, that's interesting about your research as to the Rasmussen polls in 2008. As I recall, PPP had much better results that year (and Rasmussen had good results in 2006)


    [ Parent ]
    Like most southern states, North Carolina has a large number of "Reagan Democrats"
    Especially given that this sample of Democrats still gives Burr 14% (compared to Marshall who only gets 5% of Republicans).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    DGM is right about party ID, it's very reasonable. One thing to consider...
    ...is that in a lot of these states that have large numbers of soft Democrats, it's smart to look at both party ID and ideological self-identification in the crosstabs.  In this PPP NC poll, you'll notice they have conservatives outnumbering moderates, and that tells you that a lot of the Democrats are, indeed, conservaDems.  So it's a good sample.

    Also, PPP's soft screen doesn't prejudge what the electorate "should" look like.  And they've had a very slight GOP-leaning house effect this cycle per Nate Silver, although not bad at all, but certainly no Democratic bias.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yes, this makes sense.


    [ Parent ]
    Only SurveyUSA were better
    http://www.publicpolicypolling...

    According to that measure even ARG and Zogby were better than Rasmussen.


    [ Parent ]
    PPPs sample was overly *Republican*, not Democratic
    PPP's poll has 120,000 more Obama voters not turning out than Mccain voters.  How in the hell can that be "too Democratic".

    LOL, back to reality, PPP in NC has 6% of Obama voters not voting.  Of the projected turnout sample, Marshall only underperforms Obama by 2%.

    At the same time, Hagen got a net 100,000+ Mccain voters to vote for her, so there is significant room for Marshall to improve... especially given the significant Republican lean of PPPs sample.


    [ Parent ]
    I dont know the ins and outs of polls and stats
    But it doesnt seem that accurate to take that number and say it shakes down to that % of Obama voters not showing up.  You got margin of error to puts the poll where it would be and it reflects the lack of enthusiasm for Obama,

    [ Parent ]
    No, it is a precise number
    The sample has an exact percentage of Obama voters.
    The 2008 election had an exact result.

    Enthusiasm and margin of error don't enter into it.  The numbers are objective and known, so not voting is the only option possible.


    [ Parent ]
    No matter how many times you say it
    It is faulty to use 2008 Presidential numbers as a baseline for an off-year election where the other side is more motivated.

    [ Parent ]
    No matter how many times you deliberately mistate what i have said
    I asked you before, now stop being a freaking dick.

    Read real slow... I am not making the comparison.  PPP is!

    I tried to give you the benefit of the doubt, but nobody can sincerely post as much as you do about this without actually having read the poll, so either read the polls, or have the courtesy to not make up nonsense over and over.


    [ Parent ]
    another case
    of the RassmussenPrimaryBounce (TM) wearing off.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Again...
    Love that trademark!  

    [ Parent ]
    AL-07 fundraising
    Thank God Shelia Smoot can't raise any money.  She has been on the Jefferson County Commission during the sewer bond refinancing mess (she was the third and decisive vote in several of those disastrous decisions) which has left the county's finances in truly dire straits.  They are on the brink of being the largest municipal bankruptcy ever, furloughed county employees and had to put everyone on a 4 day workweek.

    We do not need more Democrats with ethics problems.  William Jefferson all over again.  

    Progressive voices for Alabama at Left In Alabama


    Vallejo, eat your heart out!


    My blog
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    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    wow...
    this whole time I thought her name was Sheila. and the sad thing is I had looked on her website before and still kept reading it as "sheila". how is her name pronounced anyway? Shelly-uh? Like Sheila but with an extra syllable?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Pronounced like Sheila
    She-la.  But spelled Shelia.

    Progressive voices for Alabama at Left In Alabama

    [ Parent ]

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