Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 7/6

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jul 06, 2010 at 3:37 PM EDT


AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth may have sunk his own ship, not so much with his history of shilling for free-grant-money scams but with his flip response ("Buyer beware!") when the accusations first came to light. Sensing some traction on the issue, Team McCain is out with a second ad on the topic, this time outright calling Hayworth a "huckster."

MO-Sen: Roy Blunt is out with his first TV ad in his Senate campaign; it's a feel-good intro spot that seems mostly oriented toward the primary audience. It's the story of a humble high school teacher and university president, with no mention of how he just happened to be the House minority whip (or even a Republican). Blunt is very likely to prevail against teabagging state Sen. Chuck Purgason in the primary (who just got the coveted endorsement of Samuel Wurzelbacher), but would naturally prefer a convincing margin.

NV-Sen: You know the best way to make sure that people don't go back and look at all the ridiculous things that you said earlier? Don't jump up and down saying "OMG! Don't look at those ridiculous things I said earlier!" Well, that's what Sharron Angle is doing, having scrubbed her website of all the ridiculous things she said back in the GOP primary as part of having "softened" (her words) her image, but having found Harry Reid's campaign preserving her old website as part of his website (ah, the wonders of the cache...). They've now issued a cease-and-desist letter, ordering Reid to stop publishing the ridiculous things she said earlier. Meanwhile, Angle (last seen comparing herself to Abraham Lincoln) is facing a new problem: the possibility that the NRA (unenthused about the much-less-gun-friendly Dick Durbin or Chuck Schumer as majority leader) might actually endorse Harry Reid.

OH-Sen: Jennifer Brunner reflects back on her Senate primary campaign, with no regrets about her running a shoestring-budget, ground-game-oriented campaign, and also with a few of the same complaints (of behind-the-scenes fundraising blackballing, for which she still offers no proof).

SC-Sen: Linda Ketner seems like a savvy businesswoman, and the possibility of an independent Senate bid to save SC Dems from Alvin Greene probably didn't strike her as a good investment. The former SC-01 candidate made it official over the weekend that she wouldn't run, telling her petition-gathering supporters to stand down.

WV-Sen: Following the West Virginia story is a bit like watching a game of ping-pong, because today the story has rapidly bounced back to the likelihood of there being a special election this year to replace Robert Byrd after all. SoS Natalie Tennant, who interpreted the law to say that there won't be an election until 2012, is now saying that's, practically speaking, too long and that the legislature should take that up in a special session this year. Of course, the decision to call a special session is up to Gov. Joe Manchin, the likely eventual occupant of that seat, and it's a question of what timing he thinks is best for him, perception-wise.

Interestingly, there's increasing pressure from both labor (AFL-CIO, UMW) and business (Chamber of Commerce) for Manchin to get it over with and appoint himself to the seat right away rather than using a seat-warmer, suggesting that the perception wouldn't be that bad (compared with many other states, where governors appointing themselves to the Senate has frequently backfired catastrophically). Everybody in West Virginia seems to know how their bread is buttered, and that's facilitated by getting Manchin in there as quick as possible so he can start accruing seniority. The state GOP is moving toward a lawsuit to compel a special election this year, but that may not be necessary if all the state's establishment is already on board with the idea.

GA-Gov: Insider Advantage is out with new polls of the Republican Georgia gubernatorial primary, and it offers quite a surprise: ex-SoS Karen Handel has shot into a tie with Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, who has had a significant lead for most of this cycle. Handel and Oxendine are both at 18, with ex-Rep. Nathan Deal at 12, and state Sen. Eric Johnson (who's hitting the TV airwaves to attempt a late move) at 8. There may be two factors at work here: one, the increasing public perception that Oxendine is an ethically-challenged sleaze (the Handel camp has taken to calling him "the Rod Blagojevich of Georgia politics), and two, an endorsement for Handel from unusual quarters -- Arizona's Jan Brewer (a fellow former SoS), suddenly promoted from dead-woman-walking to right-wing heroine after her signing of that state's immigrant-bashing law -- that Ed Kilgore thinks have some of the same galvanizing effect as Sarah Palin's embrace of Nikki Haley in South Carolina.

NE-Gov: There's a lot of backstory behind the strange Mark Lakers dropout that we didn't know about until after he bailed out. It turns out that in May, there was a brouhaha after a number of people were listed as Lakers contributors on his campaign finance reports, some of whom weren't even Lakers supporters at all. This led to calls in June from several prominent Democrats (including a former state party chair) for Lakers to get out of the race, and with his fundraising subsequently stymied (leaving him with $3,293 cash on hand on June 23), he seemed to have no choice but to bail. A replacement can be picked at the state Democratic convention, July 23 to 25.

TX-Gov: The Supreme Court of Texas (can I just abbreviate that as SCOTex?) has given the Greens a lifeline, and by extension, the Republicans. (Not really a coincidence, seeing as the Texas Supreme Court is a partisan-elected, Republican-controlled body.) They blocked a lower court's order that the Greens be kept off the ballot, letting them meet the certification deadline, although it left open the possibility that they will remove the Greens from the ballot later. The controversy, you'll recall, is over whether the Greens' petition drive was funded by out-of-state corporate money, an illegal in-kind contribution.

FL-24: Craig Miller, the rich guy running against two underfunded elected officials in the GOP primary, has the lead according to his own internal poll (conducted by McLaughlin & Assocs.). Miller is at 17, with state Rep. Sandy Adams at 11, and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel (who had been considered a good get when she got into the race) registering all of 3. The winner faces off against Democratic freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in the Orlando 'burbs.

KY-06: Attorney Andy Barr, who's running against Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler in the 6th, is enduring some bad PR over his membership in a Lexington-area country club that, until last year, had never had a black member. His response? It's "not an issue," as he's "a member of a lot of organizations." (As an aside, that first member will be familiar to NBA history fans: Sam Bowie, the consensus pick as the worst draft disaster in human history.)

NY-01: It's usually not good news when your entire advisory infrastructure up and quits all at once, but that's what happened in the campaign of Chris Cox, the Richard Nixon grandson and, more importantly, (state party chair) Ed Cox son who's running a carpetbaggery campaign to represent the Hamptons. Much of the former McCain operation (John Weaver, Mark Salter, etc.) was working for Cox, but left en masse last week. Cox still gathering petitions to get on the GOP ballot (due in five days), so it'll be interesting to see if that even happens now.

OH-17: Trafican't! (A few other wags have already used that joke today, so don't credit me for it.) Ex-Rep. (and ex-con) Jim Traficant's comeback bid in the 17th came to an ignominious end today, after it was revealed that he didn't have enough signatures to petition onto the ballot as an independent, as over 1,000 of the 3,138 signatures he turned in were invalid. Beam him up, Scotty. (I'm not the first to make that joke either, sorry.)

TN-08: It's remarkable that the rural, dirt-poor, cheap-media-markets 8th is turning into one of the highest-dollar House races in the whole country. State Sen. Roy Herron, the likely Democratic nominee, had another big quarter, pulling in $350K over the last three months, which gives him $1.2 million CoH banked while the GOPers hammer each other.

WI-07: The Democratic primary field was once again cleared for state Sen. Julie Lassa in the open seat race in the 7th to replace retiring Rep. David Obey. Joe Reasbeck (on the Some Dude end of the spectrum and not likely to give Lassa much trouble anyway) dropped out, citing family concerns. She'll likely face Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy, who does still face a contested primary.

Redistricting: Redistricting in Florida in 2012 is dependent on what happens with the two Fair Districts initiatives (Amendments 5 and 6) on the ballot in November this year, which would limit the Republican-held legislature's ability to gerrymander to their liking. (Unless Amendment 7, backed by a coalition of Republicans and minority Democrats, also passes, which would largely neuter 5 and 6.) The Orlando Sentinel looks at some of the difficulty the GOP may have with drawing favorable maps amidst burgeoning population growth in central Florida even if they can gerrymander at will, though; Hispanic populations there have been growing and Democrats have moved into a registration advantage in many areas.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/6
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

registration gains for Iowa Republicans
Lots of people switched to vote Republican in the primaries, where they had more competitive races. Iowa Dems' registration edge down from 100,000 to about 55,000.

Governors Who Appoint Themselves Senators
Can you provide some examples? I just can't recall any off the top of my head at the moment. Blago doesn't count, since that was a probable attempt to appoint himself; he didn't actually succeed.

Wendy Anderson
in Minnesota in 1978 is probably the best-known example; I'm sure the SSP readership can come up with a few others.

[ Parent ]
From an Old NPR Story
Montana, 1933 - Sen. Thomas Walsh (D) died. Gov. John Erickson (D) appointed self, lost 1934 primary.

Kentucky, 1939 - Sen. Marvel Logan (D) died. Gov. Happy Chandler (D) appointed self, won elections in 1940 and 1942.

Nevada, 1945 - Sen. James Scrugham (D) died. Gov. Edward Carville (D) appointed self, lost 1946 primary.

Idaho, 1945 - Sen. John Thomas (R) died. Gov. Charles Gossett (D) appointed self, lost 1946 primary.

Wyoming, 1960 - Sen.-elect Keith Thomson (R) died. Gov. John J. Hickey (D) appointed self, lost 1962 election.

New Mexico, 1962 - Sen. Dennis Chavez (D) died. Gov. Edwin Mechem (R) appointed self, lost 1964 election.

Oklahoma, 1963 - Sen. Robert Kerr (D) died. Gov. J. Howard Edmondson (D) appointed self, lost 1964 primary.

South Carolina, 1965 - Sen. Olin Johnston (D) died. Gov. Donald Russell (D) appointed self, lost 1966 primary.


[ Parent ]
With Anderson, that makes for a really low success rate
1 of 9.

By that rationale, it would be rather stupid for Manchin to appoint himself.


[ Parent ]
Interesting...
But hardly recent.

I agree with the article. I doubt there would be much blowback if Machin appoints himself to get a headstart in seniority. WV loves it pork. And Capito, the only Republican who could really challenge Machin, would probably just run for the open Gov's seat.


[ Parent ]
Depends if the current Lt Gov runs for seat after being made Gov
runs for the seat, then it wouldnt be open.

[ Parent ]
I believe
The WV Lt. Gov. is the President of the State Senate.  

[ Parent ]
Wendy Anderson appointing himself not....
... only brought him down it brought down the whole DFL party in 1978. Dems lost both US Senate seats (both seats were up because of the death of Hubert Humphry), the Governorship and large numbers of state legislative seats. Manchin MUST NOT appoint himself.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Exactly
he can tell those labor/business people wanting him to appoint himself they can hold off until the special election or 2012.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
In fairness, though
West Virginia != Minnesota, at least by stereotype. WV has a more pork-obsessed image, while MN is seen as more good-government (probably these have some basis in reality).

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
Brad Ellsworth
His first ad:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


Zero tolerance for bull?
I had to replay that clip a couple of times because it just didn't sound right to me.  I guess he couldn't say "bullshit" in an ad....

Anyway, I think that message will resonate well in Indiana.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Anyone else notice Ellsworth's campaign logo?
It's almost exactly the same as John McCain's 2008 presidential logo. An odd choice to imitate, for sure.

[ Parent ]
WV-Sen
have a special and Manchin can just run in it.  

Joe the Plumber endorsement
This endorsement solidifies my opinion of Joe the Plumber:  He's an opportunist in the mold of Palin.  It blows me away that an idiot who has never served public office could endorse a candidate of another state (a state that doesn't even border his own state).  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Who cares?
I really do not care for blue collar idiots on either side including Joe the Plumber whose not actually a Plumber.  Why don't they just all go back to whatever the great unwashed do?

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
The idiots of the world
Unfortunately, many people who don't understand taxation will listen to the "Joe the Plumbers" of the world and take such an endorsement seriously.  A lady in my office has "Joe the Plumber" on the background of her laptop.  She's an idiot too.

As far as being blue collar, I could care less.  He could have been "Joe the Teacher" and I would feel the same way about him.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Blue collar idiots?
Guess what, we don't care for your smug arrogant elitist attitude either.  

The reason why fake plumbers play well is because of people like you.


[ Parent ]
Smug
Joe the Plumber plays to the worst of the stereotype.  I really have not met an educated person, regardless of their ideology, that could care what people like Joe the Plumber says.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Would you cut it out
They are called voters.  Everyone else here cares what they all think to some degree.

More to the point, this guy is pretty much the original teabagger, and his confused, contradictory views are shared by a meaningful amount of the voting population.


[ Parent ]
Even the Bard of Avon understood
what happens when the working class is ignored:

"The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers"
. - (Act IV, Scene II).

[ Parent ]
Which play is that (n/t)


überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
I have
Joe the Plumber symbolizes a lot ofthe anger from the Tea Party enthusiasts, and I wouldn't classify everyone in the Tea Party as uneducated.  I work with highly educated people who loves Joe.  

And to state my position again, I could care less that he's blue collar worker, and I really don't give a damn about his education, either.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
And Ryan is a fairly centrist
suburban ex-Republican, (he might even still be a Republican), who as far as I can tell has left that party due to it's attempts to appeal to lowest common denominator plants, liars, idiots, and partisans like Joe the Plumber, who not only walked up to a major Presidential candidate off the streets, but then proceeded to lie about buying a business in order to try and get a gotcha moment from him and instead got an eloquent, polite, and truthful answer, a straightforward, "Yes, I would raise your taxes." I have no use for useful blue collar idiots, who vote Republican because they don't want to pay higher taxes in the future when they "get richer" like they expect themselves to.

What you call elitism I call merely not celebrating and glorifying cultural and political ignorance. These days if you don't quietly listen and smile and be polite towards prideful ignorance and open hostility to more educated, and cultural values, then you are an elitist. It's bull and it's the same type of tripe being pushed and driven by Republicans like Sarah Palin.  


[ Parent ]
As a gay man who went through hell in high school because of "real America"
I will say HEAR HEAR, Jwaalk.  I listen, I understand their point of view, I've put in effort; but I dont respect it one bit.  We get called elitist because we cant appreciate close-mindedness and the desire to never live in a town with a population over 5,000?  And you know what, they think the same type of things about us, just opposite.  Bunch of annoying averagists.  (As if living in small-town America is average any more.)

But I do think people need to do their research and not just simply look down upon their opposing ideologies.  I dont revile them, I dont think less of them (unless we get into gay issues) because I get where they are coming from.  And that is not the same respect many of them would give me because many are naturally not intellectually curious and would not give my belief the time of day, which only speaks to the initial "elitist" divide that is the root of this problem.

Sarah Palin and her "real America" can shove it.  


[ Parent ]
Good response, especially
But I do think people need to do their research and not just simply look down upon their opposing ideologies.  I dont revile them, I dont think less of them (unless we get into gay issues) because I get where they are coming from.


[ Parent ]
The celebration of ignorance is sickening
It's very different than indifference of blue-collar issues. It's about the celebration of ignorance and the hatred of education. I not only find disheartening but disturbing.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...


[ Parent ]
My thoughts
Jim Valvano used to say that education is not a race to the finish line;  instead, it's a process that lasts an entire lifetime.  An education doesn't just take place in the classroom, but in the world itself.

My grandfather-in-law never got out of grade school, but he was about the smartest man I ever knew.  He was always willing to experiment with his ideas, listen to other people's point of view, and revamp the process as needed.  He was hardly ignorant, but because of his appearance, accent, etc., many people would dismiss him as a result.  Such people are the same ones who dismiss "Joe the Plumber" because he is supposedly "blue collar", and that's sad.  I dismiss him merely because he's not willing to listen to the opposing point of view, understand the merits of taxation, and then spout hatred as needed.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
We who are educated
should know how to talk to and communicate with those who fear us.

We who are educated should have the tools, the knowledge, the understanding on how to communicate.

If we throw up our hands and call it "bull," I think it is us who are the failures.

I've spent some time on boards with mixed groups of users - including numerous wingnuts. It takes significant intellectual discipline to communicate with such people, to remain based in fact and reality, to always provide background information to help others understand.


[ Parent ]
Different situation, but maybe relevant to Manchin
Sen Frank Murkowski R-Alaska was elected governor Murkowski and then appointed his daughter to the Senate to replace himself.  Lisa Murkowski is still a US Senator, but the blowback saw her dad lose the next primary to Mama Grizzly.  As I remember Frank Murkowski made a show of considering a whole range of applicants before appointing his daughter.  People were put off by that.  Maybe the lesson for Manchin is that if he is going to appoint himself, then just do it without pretending that there was any other option under consideration.

he should just run in the special himself
No one can complain if the man legitimately tries to get elected in his own right.  Where is the chorus of pissed of North Dakotans about how Hoeven is quitting mid-term?

[ Parent ]
I'm starting to think that Manchin is going to drag this out as long as possible
then change the law to have an election this year, so he can run as abbreviated a campaign as possible. He would most likely benefit from a short campaign as opposed to an extended one, as the Democrats have a much better base from which to run a statewide race, and there would be less time for his record as governor to be gone through with a fine-toothed comb.

As long as he
campaigns.....well you can fill in the rest. ;)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
VT gov
Disclaimer, I intern for GOP lt gov and gov candidate Brian Dubie

Shumlin launches first ad.  Linked through green mountain daily.

http://www.greenmountaindaily....

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


You've been a Republican this whole time?


[ Parent ]
really I thought he was a liberal guy
And Dubie is very conservative, more so than Douglas.  

[ Parent ]
I don't know Dubie that well,
personally or as a candidate, but his website doesn't seem all that conservative.  

[ Parent ]
You mean he doesn't advertise being conservative in an uber-liberal state???!!!......
I'm shocked!  Shocked I tell you!

I'd think a state that voted 67-31 for Obama and elected a legislature that overrode a Governor's veto of gay marriage would love conservatives!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
jwaalk said, "Dubie is very conservative"
I was hoping for some examples of said conservatism. I'm not from Vermont or the New England region, so the website was all I had as a reference. It is not everyday that a Republican is touting the merits of green energy even if it is Vermont. I never said I was shocked he ran as a moderate just that he didn't seem uber conservative.  

[ Parent ]
not republican or democrat
not sure anymore.  used to be basic liberal, progressive democrat.  Now, I'm not so sure.  seeing what the other side is like.  Also, the work is at least a little selfish, as I plan on working in policy and i need to start somewhere and at least with Dubie, I know he'll win, wheras with the dems i wouldn't even know if they'd make it through the primary.  Plus, I think the general social/economic balance of vermont has gone akilter and needs to be set back a little.  I'd say more, but that's not the point of SSP.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Oklahoma Senate
Tom Coburn might as well have been unopposed.

Good thing (for Democrats at least) is that Coburn champions term limits and will be retiring in 2016.


He pretty much is
Rogers is a perennial candidate. Myles is a complete unknown.

[ Parent ]
susan collins also pledged term limits
Granted coburn's intensity in the matter might be a lot greater, but i wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he has some excuse in 2016 for why he's running again.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
If White doesn't win the gubernatorial race...
he can take on KBH in 2012, whose approval crashed to the 30's.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Better unopposed
Than an Alvin Greene.

[ Parent ]
GA-Gov: GOP Primary is going to runoff.
Advantage: likely Oxendine

Roy Barnes must be a happy man right now.  This gives him more time to campaign and raise money while the GOPers hammer it out amongst themselves.

Roy Barnes has the support of teachers, unions, and businesses and is the Dems best shot at getting the governor's seat.  Although teachers disliked his policies as governor, 8 years of Perdue makes Barnes seem great.

IMHO, if the GOP primary goes to runoff, I put this race at "lean Dem".  If it doesn't go to run-off (unlikely), I put this at "toss-up."

Although Thurbert Baker is the more progressive Dem, he is way behind in the primary polls and would swing this race in favor of the GOP if he won the primary.

I doubt Nathan Deal will win after he fled the House to escape an ethics investigation.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I still don't get why Baker isn't getting more traction
Not only do African-Americans make up a majority of the Dem electorate, but this guy's been elected statewide THREE times. And, his progressive record is probably no setback, given 45% of Georgia Dems are self-described liberals.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I guess
Georgia Dems love Roy Barnes so much. Plus I love the campaign he's running right now. He's focusing solely on the economy while the GOP is focusing on out teabagging each other.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Is Baker really more liberal than Barnes
My impression is that Baker is pretty conservative, maybe even a tad more than Barnes.

[ Parent ]
Roy Barnes' politics is kinda like Zell Miller, minus the crazy.
And yes, he is ahead in the polls because he was a good governor and people want him back.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Another thing:
I think the main reason why Roy Barnes is as far as he is because people are nostalgic for him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Anyone seen this McCollum ad?
I'm in Florida right now and I saw this ad on TV today. http://www.youtube.com/billmcc...
Absolutely brutal IMO. Scott, McCollum, and Byrne commercials almost make up every commercial on the news.  

LA Filing deadline
A sign of how far Dems have fallen in LA. They may not even contest the LG race, a seat only 1 Republican has ever been elected too. Interesting article on potential LA-02 last minute filers: http://www.louisianaweekly.com...

I'm curious as to whether anyone will file for LA-01, 04, 05, 06, or 07
I haven't heard of any Dem candidates in any of these districts. It would be pretty incredible if only 2 out of 7 House races were contested in November.

[ Parent ]
GA-Gov: This ad from Roy Barnes hits GA Republicans for
making Georgia the laughingstock of the nation and alienating potential employers by pushing legislation in favor of secession and forming a legislative agenda in opposition to stem cell research and...microchips in the brain.

A pretty strong indictment of the status quo.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!



Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox