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SSP Daily Digest: 6/29

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 3:16 PM EDT

FL-Sen: As much as Charlie Crist seems to have benefited from his switch to an independent bid, he still has to deal with blowback from a lot of ticked-off Republicans. A group of GOPers, led by state Rep. Tom Grady, has filed a class action lawsuit against Crist to get back their contributions which they thought would be used to support a Republican. Meanwhile, with Crist running around looking gubernatorial amidst the oil spill crisis, and the media having lost interest with the Republican primary settled, Marco Rubio now finds himself in an unusual position (which may be reflected in recent polls): the guy who isn't getting any attention.

IL-Sen: Well, it took Mark Kirk a couple months to do what Richard Blumenthal took a few days to do, but he finally got around to apologizing today in a press conference for his various "careless" embellishments of his military and teaching records.

KS-Sen: SurveyUSA (6/24-27, likely voters, 5/21-23 in parens):

Jerry Moran (R): 53 (52)
Todd Tiahrt (R): 33 (29)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 9 (15)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

SurveyUSA also looks at the Democratic Senate primary (where little-known college professor Lisa Johnston is the surprise leader, at 24, followed by somewhat higher-profile candidates like former newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger at 16 and state Sen. David Haley at 11), and at the Republican gubernatorial primary (where I didn't even know there was a contest anymore, but where Sam Brownback leads Joan Heffington 76-17).

KY-Sen: With the primary resolved and with Rand Paul having gone into media-related hiding, his fundraising seems to have dwindled accordingly. He held another online moneybomb yesterday, which used to be his bread and butter, but the bomb was more of a dud this time: he banked only $90K by yesterday evening. That's was off from the $400K generated by his largest one last August.

NJ-Sen: A couple items of good news for Frank Lautenberg: first, he's announced that, after having been treated for lymphoma, his cancer is now in remission. And today, he got Robert Byrd's gavel for the Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle, in contrast to Rand Paul, is at least temporarily breaking her media silence tonight... and she's doing it not exactly the friendliest environment either, going on local reporter Jon Ralston's TV show. (Ralston is one of the best left of the dying breed of state-level political reporters; his Twitter feed is highly recommended.) Meanwhile, Nevada Dems are hitting Angle for her decidedly extreme position on abortion (legal under absolutely no circumstances), while the once-thought-ominous Karl Rove 527 American Crossroads is out with a new ad attacking Harry Reid over unemployment.

WV-Sen: There's quite a long list of potential temporary appointees developing in West Virginia, but ex-Gov. (and current College Board president) Gaston Caperton won't be one of them; he took his name out of the running. In addion to former state party chair Nick Casey and current chair Larry Puccio, other names, all of whom are well-connected with Gov. Joe Manchin, bubbling up today include former Manchin counsel Carte Goodwin, businessman Perry Petropolis, former state Supreme Court justice Richard Neely, and first lady Gayle Manchin.

AL-Gov: Robert Bentley is touting an internal poll from Dresner Wicker & Associates giving him a substantial lead over Bradley Byrne in the GOP runoff; Bentley leads 46-27, and has 59/9 favorables. Bentley has also pledged no negative ads from his camp, which may be a relief to many Alabamians (and which may have been the secret to Bentley's surprise success in the primary, as he dodged the heavy crossfire between Byrne and Tim James).

CA-Gov: There's a clear difference in strategy in California's governor's race, with Jerry Brown (who needs to draw Meg Whitman out into the open) agreeing to ten debates and Whitman (who needs to hide behind her ads) agreeing to one. New ads run by Brown surrogates seem to be taking increasing aim at Whitman's tendency to hide behind her large piles of money, too.

RI-Gov, RI-01, RI-02: The Rhode Island Democratic party issued its endorsements yesterday, and the results weren't good for the party's former state chair (or his brother). Bill Lynch lost the RI-01 endorsement to Providence mayor David Cicilline, while AG Patrick Lynch lost the RI-Gov endorsement to state Treasurer Frank Caprio. In the 2nd, incumbent Jim Langevin got the endorsement over primary challenger state Rep. Betsy Dennigan.

TX-Gov: The situation with the Texas Greens ballot line isn't quite going away yet. A lower court decided last week to block them from the ballot because their petition drive was illegally funded with an in-kind corporate contribution (with roots tracing back to Rick Perry's former chief of staff). The decision, however, was just appealed to the Texas Supreme Court (which, of course, is Republican-controlled and not averse to the occasionally nakedly political decision).

ID-01: Here, maybe, is another instance of the Chamber of Commerce realizing that conservative Democrats do a better job of addressing big business's needs for a functioning physical and educational infrastructure than do the group of anarchists who seem to have seized control of the GOP? The US Chamber of Commerce just gave freshman Dem Walt Minnick their endorsement.

LA-02: Rep. Joe Cao has had to back down on a fundraising letter that strongly implies that the local Catholic diocese and Archbishop Gregory Aymond backed his candidacy. Cao apologized for taking Aymond's praise for him out of context.

MI-03: Well, at least we now know who to cheer against in the GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers. The Club for Growth announced yesterday that they're backing state Rep. Justin Amash, meaning that Amash must have impressed the far-right group with his level of disdain for public spending. (JL)

PA-07: Philly's just a short Amtrak ride from Washington DC, and Joe Biden will be there July 19 to host a combined fundraiser for the DCCC and for the Dem candidate in the 7th, state Rep. Bryan Lentz.

TX-17: Here's an article that's an interesting reminder of how all politics is, in the end, local, and how it can turn on stuff that's a million miles away from inside-the-Beltway concerns. Politico looks at the race in the 17th, which is very much a Waco/Baylor (Chet Edwards) vs. College Station/Texas A&M (Bill Flores) contest, with the recent (now irrelevant, though) proposal to break apart the Big 12 a key flashpoint.

WV-01: Old man yells at cloud? Initially, the idea of a legendary West Virginia Democratic politician setting up a PAC with the pure intent of stopping Democratic nominee Mike Oliverio from winning in November sounds like a game-changing impediment. From the backstory, though, it sounds like former SoS Ken Hechler may not have that much oomph behind his vendetta, which seems mostly motivated by Oliverio's 2004 failed primary challenge to him in the SoS primary, where Oliverio's entire argument seemed predicated on the fact that Hechler was 89. (If you do the math, that makes him 95 now. I guess the secret to longevity is to become a Democrat in West Virginia!)

CA-Init: Don't count on California making the switch to the Washington-style top-two primary just yet, despite the passage of Proposition 14 earlier this month. The major and minor parties are weighing legal challenges to it, and they're watching with interest the latest round of litigation on the matter in Washington. (The US Supreme Court has already upheld a state's authority to switch to a top-two primary, but there's a new suit pending on new grounds.)

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/29
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Landrieu vs Lautenberg for Byrd sub-chair
Landrieu is next in line for Homeland Security appropriations subcommitee chair, but Inouye gave it to Lautenberg. Mary's pissed.

Weird story
When I saw Lautenberg got that sub-committee Chairmanship, I was happy someone from the area got it, so that New York might not continue getting shafted in funding, but really, what the f---? Homeland Security disaster management is very important to Louisiana and Landrieu has seniority. Give her her damned Chairmanship!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
if I was Landrieu I would be pissed off as well. She deserves it, I am not saying that Lautenberg doesn't but this could really help her state out a lot. Really bad move.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Your gonna be shocked to hear this
But I AGREE. Yes, I am actually taking up for Landrieu. Hell just froze.  

[ Parent ]
Cue the extemists
Saying she doesn't deserve it cos she is DINO Blue Dog!

[ Parent ]
No but in all reality after all your state has been through it really does deserve that small comfort I would think. It's really not about politics, I would say the same thing if Landrieu was a Republican as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Between through and it place "a lot and" I suppose I was still so shocked I did not edit.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
it was right after all. I am really off today.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I'm not shocked at all
First of all, you have a sense of fair play, and secondly, she represents (however imperfectly) your state, which desperately needs all the help it can get.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
She's gone Jan 2015 most likely anyway
But yeah, she should be pissed.

[ Parent ]
Never count Landrieu out. In 2002 the Republican candidates got a majority of the vote combined, and headed into the runoff black turnout would be lower, Bush was still wildly popular, one democratic senator had already lost in the deep south, and no one gave Landrieu a chance. She still came from behind and beat Terrell.

The only way she'd likely be certain of losing is if Jindall ran, and I can't see him running for Senate then because 2016 is probably when he'll launch a Presidential campaign. He can better use 2014 setting up the infrastructure rather than running a campaign against Landrieu.  

[ Parent ]
Depends on How You Count Seniority
Lautenberg is senior on the subcommittee, while she's senior on the full committee. So I could see an argument for either one.

[ Parent ]
Oh, well that makes a lot more sense to me
He should get the position then, he's got top seniority for the body that has the open senior position.

[ Parent ]
I want to see SSP's take
on the erupting firestorm between R2K and DKOS. Some pretty interesting stuff going there. R2K was a legitimate and respected pollster, and now a statistical analysis, done in the weeks after Dkos decided to break relations due to accuracy issues, has revealed that the Weekly Tracking polls are almost certainly fabricated, and lawsuits are being initiated, etc.  

I wonder if a tight voter screen
And strict demographic weighting could cause similar results. I think Rasmussen mentioned one of the reasons for the lack of movement in his daily tracking during 2008 was because he was basing party ID on his own polling. Though that doesn't seem to be the case this cycle, at least not as noticable. Remember how we always used to comment on Research 2000 assuming an electorate too much like 2008? Maybe that has something to do with it. At the end of the day we will have to leave it to the courts and stats experts to work it out. At least Del Ali seems intent on fighting it which is more than can be said for Strategic Vision.  

[ Parent ]
I got the impression by reading
that it really didn't matter who they spoke to.  There were problems in the comparision between M/F numbers for favorability and in the overall shifts in favorability from week to week.

It's worth a read - I have no stats background and I could understand most of the important bits.

[ Parent ]
Devil's Advocate
I've read it and it is persuasive. But I have an open mind so I'll wait to read a rebuttal.

[ Parent ]
The M/F odd and even thing seems very weird
But the shift from day-to-day, maybe it's my unfortunate lack of statistical knowledge but I didnt think that seemed too weird.  

[ Parent ]
Does anybody have the data
From Rasmussen's presidential tracking during 2008? That was also very strange. Very little movement from day-to-day.

[ Parent ]
Problem is, Rasmussen is the opposite now, much more erratic......
A week ago or so they had Obama's job approval at 41-58 one day, and just yesterday it was 49-50.  In between it jumped all around.  That level of erratic behavior isn't good polling to my naked eye.

And a 3-day rolling average, which is what Ras' daily track is, is supposed to have very little daily movement.  That's the point of a multiple-day rolling average, to smooth out the numbers for a clearer, more stable picture of the polling result.  Gallup isn't much different with what I think is a 4-day rolling average, and this year they've been more stable than Rasmussen.

I'm a subscriber and can dig up the old Rasmussen 2008 data, but my off-the-cuff recollection is I didn't find it particularly suspicious except for the Republican lean.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And what I didnt get about the Dkos post
was that they were essentially saying you want that type of variance.  Although maybe here's where it's clicking for me since you used Rasmussen as an example.  One-day polls do have more variance as you are capturing the swings in public mood based more off of every-day political occurrence vs the over-all average mood of Americans.

Hence why we are always looking for ups and downs based off Obama's national address on BP or a bump from HCR.

[ Parent ]
You do not necessarily want variance, however, variance is certainly expected for any random sampling polling. I definitely think Rasmussen's polling is biased, although there is nothing wrong with having numbers that vary each day, while at other times remaining about the same. The three statisticians, in fact, showed that Gallup's polling shows a traditional expected level of variance.

[ Parent ]
Rebuttal is essential.
I was merely commenting that it appears these allegations would not be effected by R2K's voter screen or things like that which you mentioned in your post.

This isn't about results that don't match results.  This is about alledgedly statisically impossible results.

[ Parent ]
I just read the articles on
Strategic Vision, R2K, Zogby, Rasmussen - between incompetence and fraud, are we reaching a point where opinion polls are in very serious question, generally?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Yes and No.
I have always been skeptical of polling.  My political science education tells me to have faith in polling, but my historical education makes me wonder if they are a means of fabricating events.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Ive generally been more skeptical of the people giving the answers
than the ones giving the polls.  Polls can show all sorts of weird crap, like that the US populace is against the public option but is for a government option to compete with private insurance companies.  The polling firm is being legit, it's the people getting interviewed.  And then you have the gay marriage polls where people clearly lie to make themselves look more tolerant.  Which is so ironic because obviously they are the ones in the majority and should be more open about their opinion!

Although I have started to believe that less and less as Rasmussen has now shown that a single polling firm can control and even create narratives by putting out bad but legit polls.

[ Parent ]
Aside from Internet search engines
there is significant money business with as big an opening for a quality national outfit than polling.  A good case can be made that any political poll about an event more than three weeks away is close to useless.

[ Parent ]
Rand Paul's Money Bomb goal was only $100,000 yesterday
According to his twitter campaign.

"Rand Paul raised over $172,000 in 24 hours yesterday in the worst political month (June)."

"says Rand Paul has raised over $100,000 today. Meanwhile, Conway continues begging to hit $100,000 by June 30th."

that doesnt mean $100,000 was his goal though
He just said he hit that bench mark.

[ Parent ]
It was his goal on June 23, 2010
Rand says, "Raising money in politics has two purposes: the most obvious is you need the money to campaign but the second, sometimes less obvious reason, is to send a message. If we can get to $100,000 by June 30th, that sends a louder message."

[ Parent ]
Uh yeah
Except that his normal Paultastic moneybombs usually pull in like $400 or $500k. Those numbers seem awfully weak-sauce for a guy who's going to need a heckuva lot of money to get people to forgot about all his crazy...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
At one point, retiring Ehlers had declined to endorse, saying that either of two candidates (Heacock and Hardiman) would be a good choice -- and declining to say that of Amash when asked on followup.  That said, Amash does seem to have local support as well, so he probably wouldn't be an overreach by Club For Growth.

"Politico looks at the race in the 17th, which is very much a Waco/Baylor (Chet Edwards) vs. College Station/Texas A&M (Bill Flores) contest, with the recent (now irrelevant, though) proposal to break apart the Big 12 a key flashpoint."

Edwards is a Texas A&M alum....... hence his ability to win.

I thought he was both.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Texas A&M and Harvard.

I remember when Van Taylor challenged Edwards, a big focus was made on how Edwards wins in part because of the extreme loyalty of A&M students and alumni.

Some of the other schools might be in the district, but Edwards is an A&M guy.

[ Parent ]
it's wrong in more than one way
it's pretty much a Hood and Johnson County versus everybody else contest. Those two solidly Republican suburban counties just don't ticket split like the rural ones, and they are what keep Edwards from cruising.  

[ Parent ]
Holy Crap: Clinton Endorses...ROMANOFF
Very surprising.  

Not really
He supported Hillary. It may make a dent but I doubt it. Colorado isn't one of the places I would think Clinton would be a game changer.

[ Parent ]
could be a game changer. Romanoff might actually raise some big bucks since Clinton can clearly rake in the dough, as we've seen with Meek. Then again, Clinton endorsed Newsom when he was running against Jerry Brown and his fundraising never took off. Anyway this is a surprise though....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Nah, Romanoff is a weak candidate. I'm happy with Bennet......
From all outside appearances Bennet so far has been competent as a Senator and candidate.  He's got a nice campaign bank and is pulling away from Romanoff in polling, and he's competitive with Buck and Norton.  I don't think Bennet is or will be viewed by voters as an "incumbent" in the same way as any other incumbent since he was appointed and has never run for anything before, so I don't worry about him being "below 50%" or failing to meet any other artificial benchmark in general election polling.

And Buck winning the GOP nod is, like with Reid's and Blumenthal's and Conway's opponents, the best thing to happen for us and for Bennet.  Some wacky crap is coming out about Buck after all, that I didn't even know was there, about his wanting to abolish social security and Medicare and federal student financial aid.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
has been a real asset this cycle but some of his endorsements annoy me slightly. I mean he is his own agent and can do what he likes but Newsom, Lincoln and now Romanoff. Yuck.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Loyalty bonus
Nothing more.

[ Parent ]
I heard
Romanoff is against EFCA, if so, Romanoff can use Clinton to bash unions on TV like he did with Blanche!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I had that impression too
I believed that EFCA stance when the MSM reported it, but after I talked to Romanoff personally after the first Colorado Young Dems-sponsored debate, he said he absolutely supported EFCA.  He noted that he and Bennet both had some concerns and that he was more focused on the blatant illegalities of companies who hold "meetings" with employees pushing for unionization than with card-check per se, but he didn't seem averse.  I also talked to Bennet, but, whereas I had a good 5-7 minute chat with Romanoff, the Senator expressed his support of EFCA in a cursory fifteen seconds before going off to interview someone who isn't a 29 year old graduate student.  And, yes, I was/am a delegate for Romanoff and will be canvassing to the best of my ability, but not in direct (paid or unpaid) coordination with the campaign.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
if Romanoff's fundraising picks up between now and the primary, do you think he could score a Sestak like upset?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
It's conceivable
I hope so, but the odds are against it.  He'll be at a massive money disadvantage since he isn't taking a dime of PAC cash. The unions are also, unfortunately IMHO, split.  The SEIU, the Denver local of which I know quite well, is backing Bennet, though individual organizers seem sympathetic to Romanoff. If the youth vote doesn't match what I'm seeing among friends of mine (many of whom are backing the official Party candidate because, at least in part, they want a future in the system), then Romanoff could have a chance.  

If more people met him, he'd do better...his problem is that he's known to the activist base in the Denver area but not to many others.  

Nonetheless, he comes off (to me) as far more interested and genuine in the conversations I've had than Bennet does (it's almost like Bennet's enthusiasm...and that of Bennet forced).  To put it more succinctly, Romanoff is a wonk's wonk.  He's a guy who could and probably would sit with a voter talking policy for forty-five minutes or more. He loves the intricacy of the stuff and is deeply rooted in it.

As for a voting record, there might not be much of a difference, but I'd hope long-time Colorado voters would remember what a thoughtful and talented Speaker of the House Romanoff was and how he combined principled progressivism with far more bipartisan civility than I or anyone I know could muster.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Personal bit on Rural MN
Just came back from visiting my wife's family in rural west central MN (just beyond Bachmann territory, MN state district 11). Couple of small town parades included a number of local state rep/senate candidates. None of them (and none of their lit) included party designations.

Finally saw some party trucks on the parade. Only later did I realize that the GOP truck did not include a poster for Tom Emmer (the R candidate for Gov).

The DFL truck included a poster for President Obama, Senator Klobacher, Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D candidate for Gov), along with the local state legislative candidates. It didn't include Senator Franken, but he isn't up until '14.

Nobody cheered or booed either truck, but the number of people waving at each truck seemed even.

On our way home (at MSP), we were nearly run over by Norm Coleman, walking alone in the central area past security (behind the ticket counters). I asked my wife "wasn't that Norm Coleman?" At that point, she told me, "I'm glad I wasn't looking. I would have told him that he's the most arrogant..." (remainder of the comment deleted).  

Where out in SD11?
My grandparents own land on a lake that I'll someday get to partly own with my cousins up in SD11, tiny town of Pine River which is 10 minutes north on whatever main hwy that is from Pequot Lakes.  Going up there for the 4th in fact.

[ Parent ]
Various spots, west of Alec
though we did visit another relative of hers in Pequot (up 371 from Brainard). Be warned, the traffic on I-94 was down to one lane thru the 101 interchange.  

[ Parent ]
good to know! that area has been a shit storm of traffic for years now
There is something about seeing "Paid for by the America Recovery Act" out in exurban conservative hell holes that make me smile.  Im from the town over from that interchange so I know my back routes and will definitely be using them then!

[ Parent ]
Disappointing .....
... that the political parties in California are more interested in their own power than following the will of the people.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

They are like that in most states
For example the Boston machine sitting on their hands for Coakley since they thought it better to wait for one of their own. Not that she deserved their support but you see what I'm saying.

[ Parent ]
It's hard to respect direct democracy oriented votes
considering on these type of ballot initiatives, most people have no idea what they are voting for or the only information they go on is what the text plainly says.

This isnt an issue that will end up with egregious consequences so it's no sweat off my back but direct democracy can have scary results.  And furthermore, there is a fabulous book called Stealth Democracy that proves through focus groups that we as citizens dont really want direct democracy.  We much prefer representative democracy, with the exception I spose to anti-gay marriage people who think we should get to vote on that issue.  And that's only because that's the best way for them to win, which even proves my point more so.

And from a constitutionalist stand-point, direct democracy is not what the Founding Fathers wanted for us.  They were definitely all about representative democracy and making sure the voices of the people are covered up by those in power, with an education, and money.  Hence why we have the electoral college.  Not that Im a constitutionalist but well, it's an argument nonetheless and even if one doesnt agree with the Founding Father's crass initial reasoning, there is wisdom in having people whose job is to be knowledgeable on issues be the ones to vote on them.  Just gotta prove to us your the girl or guy we should have.  (How many things did I just say that'd cost someone their political career if it ever re-surfaced, hahahahhahaha!)

[ Parent ]
This one was direct democracy at its best
because the issue was crystal clear.

Initiatives only become a problem when they are deceptive, like "Clean Energy Initiative" sponorsed by oil companies.

[ Parent ]
The Founders created a Government with three branches
   but in California we now have four. "Direct Democracy" is the newer branch, around for about 100 years but now more prominent in CA politics. Just as Legislative and Executive Branch actions are subject to judicial review, so should legislation from initiatives. We have passed some stupid and unconstitutional crap laws by initiative over the years which have sometimes been overturned by the courts. That is as it should be, otherwise if majority rule is absolute then we will have mob rule.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Well, it looks likely that the "will of the people"
will just lead to the party insiders choosing candidates.

"As a result, the state GOP plans to change its rules to caucus, vote and endorse a candidate before each primary. "We're going to have to concentrate on one person ... to hopefully run unopposed," Standriff said."

No comments from the Democrats, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did something similar.

[ Parent ]
... mean nothing if candidates ignore them. The parties can try to play kingmaker but if multiple candidates from a party want to run there is nothing stopping them.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Completely Wrong
Rand Paul raised $172,000 yesterday: which was more than his previous money bomb on April 19th ($101,000.)

Meanwhile his opponent Jack Conway is trying desperately to hit $100,000 by 11:59 PM CT on June 30th (the end of the second quarter).  Paul beat Conway's totals in mere hours.  Seems like $172,000 in a single day from individuals over the internet for a Seante candidate is always a win...unless of course you're a democratic 'Baghdad Bob-esque' spinster.

This too seems like sockpuppeting

[ Parent ]
something is telling me that it will not be a daily user.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Look up "spinster" in the dictionary, buster
And "welcome" to Swing State. Hope you enjoy your stay, however brief.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Paulist alert

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Weird-o alert

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Rand Paul's
supporters could make some good trackers if they weren't so busy trolling the internet. I would hate to be Conway if I know that I was being constantly followed by Rand Paul's supporters with video cameras.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I cant wait til uttering Paul's name
doesnt arouse a rabid group of moronic trolls.

Ugh, cant we just discuss politics in peace?

[ Parent ]
did anyone catch Orrin Hatch mention Blanche Lincoln winning even though the unions spent 10 mill against her when he was questioning Kagen on Citzens United today at the confirmation hearings?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Regarding Walt Minnick
Considering that the Tea Party Express endorsed him for reelection (to date, the only Democratic Congressman that the Tea Party has endorsed), I'm wondering which group of anarchists that you're referring to that have taken over the state GOP. Is it the Bill Sali Fan Club?

Before people flip out
Minnick has voted for a few bits of important Democratic legislation, and against the Stupak amendment. The main reason for the Tea Party endorsement is that he took a really strong line about voting against all bills that had "pork barrel" projects inserted into them. His stance on that and fiscal restraint is the main reason for that endorsement and probably the Chamber now. He stands a good chance of getting reelected to, especially against an underfunded highly conservative opponent.  

[ Parent ]
Does not matter for most tea party types.  There is a clear evidence the tea party types are not social conservative along the Huckabee line of theocrats.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Theoretically, you're right
I'm guessing social issues will eventually dissolve the Tea party.

[ Parent ]
Mike Huckabee got angry when Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana suggested that social issues should be put aside. I kinda agree with him, people should really forget about social issues at the ballot box. Especially with the economy in the tank, social issues aren't really that important if your losing your job and house!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I mean, it's true I might be unemployed...
but dammit man, gay people are getting married on the other side of the country! I stay up at night just thinking about it! the horror!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami."

[ Parent ]
I personally think that's bullshit
And wish I could remember where that whole conventional wisdom came about, it was some poll or study IIRC.

Tea-baggers give me a lot of trouble to be honest.  I get their ideology but them as a demographic is extremely contradictory to so many of my personal experiences and what is common sense.  I personally think that there are entirely too many different types of tea-baggers to really categorize them, with it being wide discrepancies.  Or am I just being stereotypical thinking that I'm seeing a bunch of uneducated people who can't even spell moron?  For me, none of it adds up to what has become conventional wisdom save for.....

The racism component; the fact that they came about because they feel like they are being taxed without being represented, well, so you dont feel you arent represented because who is representing you is black?  The such simple thing as filling out your census being controversial is troubling, and on Redstate many complained about the fact that they were asking for their race because that's none of their business.  (Thanks for making it easy.)  Saw that comment several times.  But then Erik Erickson says fill the whole damn thing out.

They are a puzzling crew and that's I think because they can't be defined.  They are who they are.  Some have common sense and are just Club for Growth uber anti-taxers and some are just dumb racists who are solid social conservatives.

Cant wait for 20 years from now when there is just a whole volume set on the tea-baggers.

[ Parent ]
While I agree with you
I wonder whether there will be a time where elections will be more like those in the UK -- where social issues aren't discussed, where even a acknowledged atheist (Nick Clegg) can have a major role in political discourse.

In that kind of political environment, I think the Tea party can work as an amalgamation of Club for Growthers and Paulists.

However, I do not know of such a time in US politics. So I believe that the Tea party will eventually dissolve.

[ Parent ]
Racism element
I actually doubt it is racism driving these groups.  If racism was driving it, the tea party movement would be strongest in Appalachia.  The tea party groups in Pennsylvania are actually weak in what would consider the more racist areas of the state.

What the tea party groups represent is a faction of the Republican Party that was practically ignored during the Bush years trying to assert themselves.  There is nothing historically different about the tea party groups when compared to other anti-tax groups in the past.  Throughout our history, anti-tax crusades have been led by middle age white males with better than average education who own property.  

The tea party is not new.  It is the same group who fades in and out of political relevance every so many decades.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Just because Appalachia
voted less for Obama than it did for Kerry doesnt make it the most racist area of the country.  That title is reserved for the Deep South and this area most certainly is tea-bagging central.

[tea partiers are a] faction of the Republican Party that was practically ignored during the Bush years

Bush's entire cabinet and crew were of the tea-party wing that is described in the MSM; care little for social issues and more about tax and defense issues.  And these people didnt start flipping their shit when Bush got TARP passed, the TARP issue was tacked on as an after-thought because how dare a black man get a stimulus bill approved!

And what other examples do you have of these same anti-taxers springing up and practically forming their own political party?  I cant think of any such movements save for when the South revolted and voted for Wallace in 1968, which only proves my point moreso because they sure werent revolting over tax issues.

These are people whose main political issues are filling out their census form, the 17th amendment, paying their taxes, having birth certificate-oriented proof for the President, the 10th amendment and they are people who honestly believe that our government would put grandma on trial to see if we should kill her or not to save money.  The underlying message of their entire ideology is we dont trust the government and their ideology kicked into high gear when a liberal black man became President.  (I do think there is something about racism/sexism amongst conservatives that comes out only when said minority or female is a solid liberal and that that needs to be looked at.)

[ Parent ]
Its not the fact he's black
If Hillary did it, we still wouldn't like it. If McCain was black and Obama was white, I still would have voted for McCain, and I'm sure a most of the Tea Party people would have too. I didn't like Bush's spending and I don't like Obama's.

[ Parent ]
It isn't you
it is more the older whites, many of them working class, who showed considerable resistance to voting for Obama. Now among hard core Republicans, it doesn't matter because they would vote GOP.  But it did matter among those who sometimes or mostly vote Democratic, and you could see that in the South, where supposedly in some states a majority of white Democrats voted for McCain.  

I found considerable resistance to Obama among white union members whom I deal with.  Part of it was race, but a lot of it was that they simply didn't trust the Democrats anymore on trade and protecting jobs.  Obama here has been better than the previous Dem in the WH, he has forced China to stop currency manipulation but he still continues to shill out for failed trade deals like NAFTA.

[ Parent ]
Bush did not care about fiscal issues
Bush was obsessed with the war.  The congressional leadership was obsessed with pandering to the social cons.  The best evidence of this is that the Club for Growth was started during the Bush presidency by some malcontents who disliked the reckless spending.  

One of the reasons I will never be registered as a Democrat while living in Pennsylvania is that every racist I have ever encountered is a registered Democrat.  As long as the Pennsylvania Democrats have no problem allowing they very racist rank and file union members in their coalition, it dilutes the progressive nature of the coalition on social issues, which is where I am in agreement with the Democrats.

While I have ideological issues with the tea party groups, I have attended some events at the request of a friend in central and eastern Pennsylvania.  I did not hear a single racist word.  I did hear a lot of people who had long term concerns that felt like they should remain quite when their own team was in power out of loyalty to their own side.  The tone is remarkably different from the tone I heard at union halls, community events and churches when I lived in southwestern Pennsylvania.

I suspect this is why many people have no problem voting Republican for a local or state race, but tend to vote more Democratic at the top of the ballot.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
CA-Gov/Sen: Boxer, Brown with slight leads
I think we can file this under good news
for Alex Gianoullias.

Blagojevich called him a "motherf*****" in a recorded conversation about possibly replacement candidates.

That and more harmless information is coming to light about Obama pressing, gently, to get Valerie Jarrett appointed.  

Score for Alexi!!!
I can just imagine the ad.

"Im running for US Senate to be an independent voice for Illinois, to stand up against the business as usual that is paralyzing progress.  I have a strong record of independence, disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich even called me a mother-fucker."


[ Parent ]
I love it
They don't pay you enough Andrew.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
RI-01: Stick a fork in Bill Lynch?
if he can't get the establishment to support him who can he get on his side?

At this point despite my issues with Cicilline I'm almost thinking of voting for him just because there are no real alternatives. And I suppose the added bonus of sending a gay half-Jew to Congress would be nice.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami."

Lynch doesn't have a prayer
The only danger to Cicilline is from David Segal, who is a young progressive activist type that could easily outflank him on the left. I'm honestly not sure who I would support in this situation; I would love to see another openly-gay representative, but I'm a little skeptical at Cicilline's progressive credentials, since his issues page is barebones and just includes boilerplate about how mayors get things done.

[ Parent ]
is not that great. He's fought with quite a few unions here which personally doesn't bother me but annoyed many liberals. He also took a fair amount of blame for the December 13, 2007 snowstorm which basically shut down the city. What bothers me the most was his idea to tax out-of-state students at colleges in Providence, that was a boneheaded idea to put it nicely. Segal is a possibility, but I'd like to learn more about his positions (especially on foreign policy) before I get behind him. I guess this is the one nice thing about our stupid ridiculously-late primary.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami."

[ Parent ]

More weak placeholders. I dislike. Source of troubles.

Nobody turns down a Senate opportunity like Gaston!!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Meaning, per Quinnipiac, Fisher's outperforming Strickland by 4
If Ohioans are more anti-incumbent than anti-Democrat come the fall, I could conceivably see Fisher and Kasich claim narrow wins.

For daily political commentary, visit me at and

[ Parent ]
PPP had Kasich up 2
Q had Strickland up 5.

[ Parent ]
I think the country in general is much more anti-incumbent
than anti-Democrat and that a Kasich/Fisher win is possible and maybe to me even a little likely.

[ Parent ]
Not a chance
Fisher and Strickland are tied at the hip, and Strickland is a stronger campaigner and is much more charismatic than Fisher is.  If anything, it would be Fisher losing and Strickland winning.

One thing I do know is that there won't be much crossover voting in this race.  If Strickland wins by 5%, which is what Quinnipac says, I don't see any way in which Fisher loses.  Likewise, if Strickland loses, Fisher's toast.  This whole idea of anti-incumbent but not anti-democratic year is just plain bogus.  If that was the case, then how come Michelle Bachmann isn't fighting for her life?  How come Jim Gerlach isn't on the verge of getting ousted?  And closer to home, how come Patrick Tiberi isn't in serious danger of losing his seat?  

Face it, we're the ones having to fight for our lives this cycle, not them.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
I have to agree
Strickland's handsomer (which counts), he hunts and shoots (and is NRA-approved) and basically I think the Republicans gave him a pass by putting up Kasich of all people.

I think Fisher wins on Strickland's coattails here.

[ Parent ]
HI-Gov: Ras finds Abercrombie up almost 2-to-1 over Aiona

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