2:27 am: With 100% of precincts reporting in CA-SD15, Blakeslee has 49.71% of the vote. The AP hasn't signaled a runoff yet, with Blakeslee catching a runoff by about 750 votes.
2:14 am: That last set of precincts bailed us out here - Blakeslee's at 49.93%, but everything else has reported and the remaining Monterey precincts should keep him under 50.
1:56 am: Pick your poison - things are looking bad whichever source you choose. Laird ends up losing Santa Clara by 3%, 7% off the pace. Model is suggesting 50.1% or 50.3% for Blakeslee...
1:40 am: With a few more Santa Clara precincts trickling in, the SoS model projects Blakeslee finishing at 49.7% but the AP model sees him finishing at 50.3%. This'll be a nailbiter (as to whether or not we do the whole thing over again).
1:32 am: A few more precincts in, we're now at 44% by the AP. Blakeslee's at 49.47%, but the model has that improving to 50.03% by night's end. Laird's staying consistently 11% off the pace in SLO and Santa Barbara. All of these jurisdictions have pretty diverse precincts, but without significant shift, thing's still aren't looking good.
1:12 am: There's a slow trickle of precincts in from California, either 117/362 or 143/399, depending on whether you believe the SoS or the AP. Regardless, Laird's still 7.5% off the baseline, and we'll still be lucky to get a runoff here.
12:51 am: AP calls UT-Sen for Mike Lee, who is maintaining his 3% advantage.
12:49 am: In CA-SD-15, Laird's performance against the baseline is varying quite a bit. He's 11% off the pace in Santa Barbara and SLO, 6% off in Santa Clara, 4% off in Santa Cruz, and running even in Monterey. SSP Labs thinks we'll be fortunate to have a runoff here.
12:46 am: Surfing around the county websites and aggregating the total, we're at 83% reporting. Lee has a 4,500 vote (or 3%) edge on Bridgewater, with little shift from the status quo in Utah County or SLCo.
12:35 am: With Weber County (Ogden) all in, we're at 72% and only three major players are left: SLCo, Utah County (Provo/Orem), and Washington (St. George). SLCo is quite diverse, so it really depends where these precincts have come in. Bridgewater continues to do marginally better along the Wasatch Front, with 55% in Box Elder, 54% in Weber, 51% in Davis, 51% in SLCo; the exception is his 47% in Utah. For the first time tonight, though, the SSP Mainframe is telling us that the outstanding precincts will be more favorable to Bridgewater than Lee.
12:22 am: This is like watching paint dry, except there are interesting variations in how fast the paint dries in different places. We're close to 2/3rds in Utah, and it's crept up to Lee 52, Bridgewater 48. That's odd because Bridgewater has pulled into the lead in SLCo, now up 51-49, but Lee's going the other way in Utah County, now up 53-47. Only real hope for Bridgewater here is that SLCo is still half out (400 precincts remain, which is more than half of all outstanding precincts throughout the state), while Utah is 2/3rds in and the rest of the state is already basically done and gone to bed.
12:04 am: We've passed the 50% mark in Utah, and there's still no change: Lee 51, Bridgewater 49. The only development that seems worth noting is that Salt Lake County (which was 52 Lee, 48 Bridgewater) is now 50-50. Are late-reporting urban precincts more Bridgewater-favorable?
11:52 pm: The AP has called UT-02 for Matheson. The tally right now, with 234 of 850 reporting, is Matheson 68, Wright 32. Fairly convincing, but Aaron Blake points out that Matheson spent $800K to make sure of it.
11:45 pm: Past the one-third mark in Utah, and it's still Lee 51, Bridgewater 49. About a 1,400 margin between them.
11:37 pm: We're getting some Monterey and Santa Cruz numbers, and the trend's moving back in our direction: Blakeslee 49, Laird 41. I don't know if Laird can pull into the lead, but he can probably keep Blakeslee under 50 and force a do-over.
11:30 pm: Over 20% in in Utah, and it keeps narrowing: 51 Lee, 49 Bridgewater. It's 52 Lee, 48 Bridgewater in both Salt Lake and Utah Counties (the two biggest counties by far... both of the candidates are from Utah Co.), but Bridgewater seems to have an edge in the majority of the smaller counties.
11:25 pm: It didn't occur to me that SD-15 would be such a NoCal/SoCal rivalry, but that's what's happening. Blakeslee has pushed past 50 (to 52, with Laird at 37), but that's because a lot more reports have come in from San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara (Blakeslee's Assembly district). Laird's saving grace may be that none of Monterey's 110 precincts have reported.
11:23 pm: Up to 15% reporting in Utah, gap has narrowed to Lee 52, Bridgewater 48.
11:15 pm: We're seeing a little progress in counting in Utah; we're up to 5% in for Sen. and 7% in for UT-02. The needle hasn't really budged, though. It's still Lee 53, Bridgewater 47, and Matheson 68, Wright 32.
11:08 pm: Wow, things are happening fast in California; maybe they'll lap Utah. With nearly 10% reporting, it's 46% for Blakeslee (R), 44% for Laird (D). Remember that this somebody needs to break 50 to win, though, so if this keeps up we'll just be doing the exact same thing in mid-August.
10:52 pm: Is it time for a ganja fry sauce break? Still very few precincts in; Lee's keeping his 53-47 edge for UT-Sen and Matheson's now up more than 2-1 in UT-02.
10:27 pm: A smattering of early votes and precincts are reporting in Utah, with Mike Lee out to a 53-47 lead over Tim Bridgewater. Bridgewater is doing marginally better on the more heavily-populated Wasatch Front. In UT-02, Jim Matheson is sporting a 65-35 lead over Claudia Wright, including an identical advantage in the relatively-liberal part of the district, Salt Lake County.
Polls have now closed in Utah (we've got another hour to go in California). Let's bust a move.
