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NC & SC Results Thread

by: James L.

Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 7:08 PM EDT


9:20pm: 100% is now reporting in SC-03. Duncan's sporting a 3% or 2,100 vote lead over Cash, but still no call from the AP after a short delay, the AP has called it for Duncan.
9:00pm: Given that the Ark of the Covenant is in Arizona, Tim D'Annunzio can try his next congressional run there. AP calls NC-08 for Johnson.
8:57pm: Duncan continues to hold his lead over Cash in SC-03; this territory went for Cash narrowly by 0.4% in the first round. This is a swing of 3.7% to Duncan, who needs a swing of 2.3% to win. In NC-08, Johnson continues to whomp D'Annunzio 62-38.
8:47pm: AP calls SC-01 for Tim Scott. He will likely become the first black Republican in Congress since JC Watts left office in 2003.
8:40pm: It's over for Rep. Bob Inglis - the AP calls it. Trey Gowdy has beaten him soundly. Inglis is the third House incumbent and fifth member of Congress to lose a primary/convention so far this cycle.
8:37pm: Man, maybe SSP HQ needs to take a ganja break this time! The two biggest races have been called (NC-Sen and SC-Gov), and NC-08, SC-01, and SC-04 all look like blowouts. And SC-03 isn't exactly a barnburner. We may not have much real action until Utah starts coming in later tonight.
8:33pm: Really bad news for fans of Raiders of the Lost Ark: Tim D'Annunzio is getting smashed by Harold Johnson, 68-32, with about 18% reporting. This represents an almost 15% swing to Johnson, which means Timmy D might wind up with a smaller share than in the first round. Pretty pathetic, but if anyone could pull this off, he could.
8:31pm: The one real barnburner tonight might be SC-03, the seat being vacated by gubernatorial loser Gresh Barrett. Duncan leads Cash 52-48 with over half the vote in. This represents a nice swing toward Duncan from round one, though, so it might not wind up being this close in the end.
8:30pm: Yeah, it's officially official - We Are Marshall. She'll take on Richard Burr this fall.
8:29pm: Buncha people on Twitter are saying the AP has called NC-Sen for Elaine Marshall. Really gotta wonder what the DSCC was thinking here. Time for them to embrace her fully.
8:22pm: AP calls SC-Gov for Nikki Haley. She'll face Dem state Sen. Vincent Sheheen in the fall. Unlike in SC-Sen, we definitely got the candidate we wanted in our primary.
8:19pm: Meanwhile, in SC-01, Tim Scott is cruising with a 73-27 lead with a quarter of the voted reporting. Hard to see him losing this one. I guess Paul Thurmond can go commiserate with Ethan Hastert.
8:17pm: With about 30% of the vote in, Nikki Haley is crushing Gresham Barrett 64-36. Gotta wonder what folks like Andre Bauer and the local Chamber of Commerce were thinking.
8:16pm: Terrible sign for Inglis - he's down 60-40 in his purported "base" of Greenville. He was a dead man walking for the last couple of weeks. Tonight is just the grand finale.
8:11pm: 1% of the vote has trickled in in NC-08, and Harold Johnson leads Tim D'Annunzio 70-30. This represents a 13% swing to Johnson from the first round (based on the two-candidate share of the vote).
8:04pm: True to the Greenville v. Spartanburg divide in SC-04, the one precinct from Greenville in has closed this to 70-30 Gowdy.
8:02pm: Cash has retaken the lead in SC-03 over Duncan narrowly at 50.3-46.7, but this is territory that went for him 26-19 in the first round.
7:59pm: In NC-Sen, Elaine Marshall continues to sport her 64-36 lead over Cal Cunningham. This is territory that went for Marshall 39-30 in the first round. In SC-Gov, Haley's lead is 62-38 over Barrett; this territory went for her 49-23 in the first round.
7:55pm: In SC-01, Scott's lead remains an impressive 70-30 over Thrumond. Further west in SC-03, Duncan now has a 52-48 lead over Cash.
7:49pm: Marshall's lead has ticked up slightly to 64-36 with 6% reporting in NC. Johnson is whomping D'Annunzio 75-25 with two precincts in.
7:47pm: Duncan's now taken the lead in SC-03, a slim 89-vote lead over Cash.
7:42pm: 1% reporting in North Carolina now, Marshall is up on Cunningham 63-37.
7:30pm: We only have five precincts reporting in South Carolina, and Nikki Haley leads Gresham Barrett by 61-39. In SC-01, Tim Scott leads Paul Thurmond by 67-33, and ice cream truck driver businessman Richard Cash leads state Rep. Jeff Duncan by 54-46 with one precinct counted in SC-03. Trey Gowdy is also crushing Bob Inglis by 85-15 in the early vote.


Polls have now closed in South Carolina. (North Carolina will close at 7:30pm ET.) We'll be using this thread to follow the returns.

RESULTS:

James L. :: NC & SC Results Thread
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YAY
Five precints in, Haley up 21%, and everything else a landslide expect Duncan v Cash and Harrelson v Pratt.

Inglis = 15% with 2 Spartanburg precints


Ouch...Colbert bump failing thus far.


[ Parent ]
Spartanburg is Gowdy's base, while Greenville is Inglis's
However, Inglis is doing worse in Spartanburg than he did in the first round, where it went 60-19 Gowdy.

[ Parent ]
ice cream truck driver
wtf! you can call yourself a businessman even if your an ice cream truck driver?!!!

Marshall's up 3:2 with 2 precincts


Urghh
It takes SC 40 minutes for 15 precincts.
It takes NC 10 minutes for 27 precincts.

There's a guy named Bill Crosby running for the State House in South Carolina
and he's winning 2-1!

Now Bing Cosby I could vote for!


[ Parent ]
Maybe
Bobby Crosby although he is an overrated baseball player.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Good job, Wake County
They've just reported 2/3rds of their precincts. Marshall winning there 2-1.  

How is she doing
relative to her performance in the first round?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
In Wake, Cunningham barely moved from the first round
It went 43-32 for Marshall in round one, now it's 66-34 Marshall.

[ Parent ]
...Wow.
Either we're seeing a big swing in other parts of the state or it's time to say hello to Democratic Senate nominee Elaine Marshall.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Two other counties are pretty much done:
Beaufort went from 37-28 Marshall to 60-40 Marshall.
Lincoln went from 41-27 Marshall to 65-35 Marshall.

[ Parent ]
More
Bertie flipped from a Cunningham county to Marshall, 37-26 Cunningham to 53-47 Marshall. It's looking like a fairly-uniform 20-25 point increase from the first round for Marshall.

[ Parent ]
Currituck
Marshall won 40% there in the first round, now 70-30.

[ Parent ]
ok yeah, stick a fork in Cal Cunningham
this election's over. next!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Some more results
Carteret, 45-30 Marshall to 65-35 Marshall.
Gaston, 28-24 Marshall to 64-36 Marshall.
Orange, 39-32 Marshall to 67-33 Marshall.
Transylvania (blah! blah!), 44-32 Marshall to 73-27 Marshall.

[ Parent ]
If Cunningham
can't even win over the Dracula vote, it's impossible to see where his gains will come from.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Finally, some relatively good news for Cunningham
Nash went from 41-28 Marshall to 56-44 Marshall.
Rockingham went from 39-35 Cunningham to 59-41 Cunningham.
Wilkes went from 40-39 Cunningham to 55-45 Cunningham.

[ Parent ]
Hopefully it will stay that consistent
A nice, big, solid win is what we need here, not a nailbiter.

[ Parent ]
Marshall off to a big early lead
She has 64% with 159/2763 precincts in, mostly on the strength of Wake County.

Ugh, D'Annunzio's getting crushed...
NC needs to have earlier runoffs/crazy Republicans need to wait till after they win their primaries to go crazy. Look at Rand Paul, he knows how it's done.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Alot of the counties he is leading in
Are only reporting early votes so there still is hope. Still, I think Tim will lose but it should be closer.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Looks like the expected no drama
but it is kinda nice to see legacy Thurmond getting thumped.

Marshall/Haley
Looks like Marshall is picking up Lewis' vote, with turnout surprisingly strong (at least in Wake), so that should be enough to win if the pattern persists.

In SC, Haley's early margin is being held down by returns from a couple of Barrett's best counties.  She will win pretty big.  


[ Parent ]
in SC-AG
Joe wilson's stepson is leading

Durham reports Elaine up 3-1
First 10 precinets

Elaine 77% 2,029
Cal 23% 620


Half of Durham in now
31 of 61 precints

Elaine 73% 3858
Cal 27% 1510


[ Parent ]
hey, baby, I'm your ice cream man.
late endorsement by David Lee Roth will put cash over the top.

Where's the power oif the Ark
thought was supposed to make him invincible.

just wait
patience, my friend, patience...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
ahhh...
forgot it had to be a cliffhanger.

[ Parent ]
burned
I think the power burned D'Unnzio to a crisp.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, not any surprises
Perhaps the strength of Marshall's victory, if she continues to hold the current margin, could be a shocker.

For Scott, the final margin will probably be a bit closer after Horry and Georgetown come in, although it's certainly looking to be a comfortable victory for him. I am not too surprised, as this is a coastal South Carolina district - the same one that almost elected Ketner two years ago - that would presumably me more culturally moderate.


Non-racist Republicans
and at least a fairly non-homophobic general electorate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
SC House races
Gowdy's winning Greenville, Inglis' base, handily.  Inglis is toast.

And I wouldn't read too much "moderation," cultural or otherwise, into Scott's win; he's a serious wingnut. Indeed, no one should buy tonight's certain GOP story line that Haley and Scott represent some sort of big tent party.    


That's definitely true
Haley and Scott are extremely right-wing candidates, and they will not do much to fix the image of the Republican Party as a party proposing ideas that are designed for corporations and the wealthy. That's also a huge key to Scott winning in this district. If he had been a "moderate" Republican, he certainly would not have won.  

[ Parent ]
It takes more than a few tokens to show inclusion......
The fact is people of color of almost very non-white ethnic group, save maybe a couple, overwhelmingly vote Democratic.  And candidate recruitment and election victories reflect that reality.  And besides history, it's because Republicans welcome confederate flags and birthers and all kinds of other hard and soft white racism.  Haley and Scott don't change that.

Really where people like this help Republicans is not with nonwhite voters, but with nonpartisan and soft partisan whites.  That's how a TV ad starring Sheila Johnson helped Bob McDonnell, and it's how electing Scott and probably Haley (assuming no Sheheen surprise) helps SC Republicans.  It's about going after white voters with the facade of equivalence.  And it can work to some extent.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Politico calls it for Haley
Also, Scott's totally obliterating Thurmond.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Looks like a good night for black Republicans
Not only is Tim Scott winning, William Randall is beating his better-financed opponent in NC-13, and if Bill Marcy wins in MS-02, they'll have won three nominations.

Half-in in
SC-03: Duncan 52
NC-13: Randall 67

I guess that's progress, but only 5.3% in TDA's district.


Outgoing Rep. Henry Brown loses primary... for County Supervisor
Apparently he was running in Berkeley County, and lost.

Well done Marshall
I think that she will be a good candidate for Democrats to hopefully take back this haunted seat. We have a great chance for victory, especially if Marshall can increase her fundraising. Campaign support from Bill Clinton of course would not hurt either.

Mitt
Romney's smiling now, he might actually win South Carolina in 2 years now.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Teabaggers 3, Sanity 0
(counting Wayne Gilchrest and Bob Bennett)

AP calls it for Trey Gowdy in SC-04.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Poor
Bob Inglis. He's one of the few Republicans including Lincoln Chafee when he was one I would of voted for.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Same here
I don't think the cleansing of the Republican Party is healthy, and while I'd support it perhaps in a district like NY-23 where we have a shot, SC-04 isn't electing a Democrat anytime soon. (I actually would have voted for Whitehouse over Chafee if I had been 18 in 2006, but only because control of the Senate rested on it.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Paul Corden
What's up with Paul Corden?  He ran last time and didn't make much impact.  Now he's running again.  I have no idea what he plans to do differently to get a win this time, if anything.

[ Parent ]
Not healthy at all
And I see a tough path for Republicans becoming more moderate again, since conservatives will always dominate the voting in Republican primaries. I suppose eventually the party will have to adapt with the times at least on social issues, but it will definitely be a long path. It's amazing to think that even in the 1990s, some members of the Republican Party in the Senate were proposing decent health insurance reform bills, while 30-40 years ago, Republicans were probably more like a European conservative party. It would actually make sense for a third party to form that is more like the  the Christian Democrats of Germany or Switzerland, but our system of FPTP obviously makes that extremely difficult, as well.

[ Parent ]
Not healthy for the Republicans
As for me, what worries me the most is whether or not this teabagger version of the Republicans could actually WIN elections.  I don't want USA-2010 to be a repeat of Germany-1933.

[ Parent ]
And most likely...
And most likely they will win elections. The idea that a party has to be moderate to win elections seems to be flawed. Whether Democrats or Republicans choose to be conservative, moderate, or progressive, there will likely always be swings between different elections. I think most swing voters think about the general direction of the country and reflect on the past, regarding who is to blame for a mess or credited for prosperity, when they are voting. Of course as Rep. Reichert pointed out, Republicans in moderate districts will probably throw some bones to the Democrats. The real scary part about the Republican drift to the right though is that the definition of "moderate" seems to shift to the right in the media as the definition of conservative moves to the right, as well.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I've noticed that too.
it's scary because you don't actually have to be that moderate to get away with being anointed moderate by the media.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
The draw of jungle primaries
The Dem third of the electorate could have supported Inglis.

[ Parent ]
Negative
In SC, you have to have voted in the first round of the party's primary to vote in the second round:

http://scvotes.org/files/2010-...

No D-to-R switching allowed.


[ Parent ]
As I said
the draw of jungle primaries.

[ Parent ]
However
If this had been Washington, Democrats and more moderate Republicans could have supported Inglis, perhaps providing him enough votes to win in November.

[ Parent ]
I'll be interested to see what's next for him.
He is a thoughtful man. I could see him being a professor or/and a commentator.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
AP calls it for Scott in SC-01


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


MS-02 may be a record for lowest Congressional primary turnout
12% is in out of which only 310 votes were cast.

I take that back
30% in and there's about 1,090 votes, but in NC-12, it's 79% in and there's about 2,500 votes, so the latter may end up being even lower.

[ Parent ]
Re Inglis
Has any scandal-free incumbent ever lost a primary by this margin? He's running like "some dude."

Vincent Sheheen?
I don't know if Sheheen is really the candidate we wanted to win.  He won mainly because Jim Rex didn't seem to run much of a campaign.  So it was all Sheheen all the time.

But what about now?  Sheheen seems to have disappeared.  I would've expected him to be having high profile campaign events right after his win, so that the Rep primary didn't push him out of the spotlight.  But I've seen zilch.


Well are you IN South Carolina? Just because we don't hear anything out-of-state...
...doesn't mean Sheheen isn't doing what he needs to do.

Maybe he's not, maybe he really is quiet.

But maybe he's doing what he should be doing?

South Carolina Governor doesn't get a lot of national media attention except when there's melodrama, and all the melodrama is on the GOP side.  I'm sure the Democrats, as much as they hate their decreasing ability to win elections, don't mind being out of the spotlight on the
kind of crap that's getting the GOP attention.  If Sheheen is appropriately courting the in-state media, that's all that matters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Yes, I am.
Been a SC resident since 2003.  I now live in Simpsonville; Inglis is now my lame duck representative.  As a former resident of Clemson, I was at least glad to see Barrett fall flat on his face.

On the evening news, I haven't heard anything about Sheheen since two weeks ago.


[ Parent ]
Anybody who's anybody wanted Sheheen ....
... and he won easily, which is great.  Sheheen would be an idiot to try to raise his profile during the last two weeks. It would be futile and pointless. The behind the scenes stuff like courting the Business leaders and raising money is what he should be doing.  I assume he has been.

I really wanted Haley to get less than 60% but it is still a winnable race.  Just yesterday there was a disclosure that she earned a huge chuck of her income for consulting for an engineering firm.  She had not previously disclosed this. Her transparency image got a little tarnished.  

The biggest fight is still ahead of her, believe me.

I was shocked at the SC-1 margin.  I was hoping for the ice cream truck guy too (Cash). I guess Joe Wilson is the only shot for a pickup now, even a longshot.  BTW, his son won the AG nod.

Ok, Marshall fans, lets see what she has to offer.  Needless to say, I am skeptical, but hope she proves me wrong.        


[ Parent ]
For skepticism on NC-Sen, Cunningham earned mine, Marshall lost it......
Cunningham was supposed to be the charismatic star.  But his fundraising was just OK, not great, certainly nothing to tout over Marshall.

I'm really OK with the DSCC recruiting candidates, and I'm OK with their recruiting over announced candidates.  It's appropriate and healthy.  They don't handpick nominees, contrary to the foolish conspiratorial complaints of some people such as Jennifer Brunner sycophants.  The DSCC folks just make their best judgments about who are the best general election candidates, and the primary is an opportunity to prove them wrong when they've made a mistake.  That's what happened here.  And that they make a few mistakes doesn't invalidate their practice.

But that said, Marshall clearly is a stronger general election candidate.  She might not be strong enough to win, but Cunningham wasn't strong enough to put up a respectable performance against her or otherwise demonstrate he's ready for the Big Show, and that's pretty underwhelming.

If Elaine Marshall wins, that'll be a huge get for us this fall.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Can't disagree with you...
... I was hoping for a better Cunningham campaign too.  I think the national mood just killed his chances.  He definitely had more charisma than Marshall though.  I hope she can put Burr on the defensive somehow.

[ Parent ]
How did the "national mood" hurt him? I don't follow. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Cunningham
Cunningham was the DSCC favorite, and he supported the War in Afghanistan.  

[ Parent ]
There's NO "national mood" against the war in Afghanistan......
People are ambivalent about Afghanistan, they're second-guessing whether we should stay there or leave, but they haven't turned against the war like they turned against Iraq in 2006.

I know today more Democrats favor leaving than staying, but it's not a strong sentiment, and Democrats remain very divided and ambivalent as a party.  And there's no indication that Afghanistan is a voting issue in Democratic primaries.

I think ultimately Cunningham just didn't have enough political stature to beat Marshall, and he didn't run a strong enough campaign to overcome the lack of stature.  I think the DSCC was betting on some intangibles, such as personal charisma, but that didn't pan out this time.  It wasn't a crazy bet, since John Edwards beat an incumbent Republican in 1998 based on personal charisma alone.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
How did the "national mood" hurt him? I don't follow. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
By National Mood, I meant that 2010 will be a GOP year.
If Cunningham were running in 2008, as Kay Hagan did or 1998 as John Edwards did, he would have got more support financially.  

I suspect the powers that be in the NC Dem power base felt Cunnigham was the right type of candidate but just the wrong year.  Keep in mind Perdue's numbers have tanked, as have Hagan's.  The former Governor Easley has been caught up in scandal too.  

I suspect the big givers felt this was the year to just keep the wallet closed.  A bad economy only makes it easier to do that.  

Without the money, the  ads don't run and Marshall's higher name recognition remains to put her in the driver's seat.  

The point someone made about low turnout is pertinent too, I think.      


[ Parent ]
What accounts for Hagan's loss of popularity?
Anything she did, or just a souring on Obama and Perdue?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
That didn't take long
Blaring headline on the top of Yahoo's news page:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_...


Nooo, Timmy D!
:'(

(I guess I'm off to play video games until the polls close in Utah.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Nearly everyone on this blog
predicted Thurmond.  You guys must really have a negative feeling about the South Carolina GOP electorate.

I wouldn't believe all the stories about the reason why McCain and Romney lost SC in 2000 and 2008, respectively.  It wasn't based on religion anymore than Huckabee's failure in New Hampshire was based on religion.


Um, what?
did someone actually say Romney lost SC because of religion? I think he lost because he barely campaigned there (he focused on Nevada instead). and the attacks on McCain had nothing to do with religion. he was claimed to have fathered an illegitimate black child (aka the child he adopted from Bangladesh).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I predicted him b/c
Of his race and the fact that Thurmond received most of the also-ran endorsements, and I'm pessimistic.  

[ Parent ]
Um what?
I was under the impression that Scott was the favorite. He's the Palin choice.  

[ Parent ]
I predicted a more narrow 53%-47% Scott victory
My suspicion was the endorsements by the losing candidates (for Thurmond) would mean more to the actual voters than the backing of national GOP-ers (for Scott).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
?
That's a mighty odd comparison you made.

There are plenty of places in the United States, particularly in the South, where the white electorate has historically been unreceptive to black candidates. This is a Republican primary (where the electorate is almost uniformly white). Pointing this out is simply pointing out reality.  


[ Parent ]
Well Huckabee's performance in NH
after his win in Iowa was largely based because he was a evangelical Southern Baptist preacher.  They don't really like those types in New England at all.  Also, Huckabee was perceived to be the least fiscally conservative of the candidates, and New Hampshire Republicans are very conservative on fiscal issues.

[ Parent ]
I think most people here
have predicted a victory for Scott. He was always the favorite.

[ Parent ]
It was even/even in the predictions thread
In the predictions thread earlier Tuesday, 4 SSPers waged a guess on whether Scott or Thurmond would win.

Kretzy was closest:

Scott: 55
Thurmond: 45

You predicted a narrower Scott win:

Scott 52, Thurmond: 48

Spiderdem and GOPVoter both figured a Thurmond win:

Thurmond 51, Scott 49

The actual result saw Scott doing much better than any of these numbers. As others have noted, that doesnt say anything about the electorate's radical or moderateness ideologically. Might it suggest that race doesnt play as big a role anymore as one may have expected?


38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


[ Parent ]
Please
do not tell me that you are calling us all reverse racists or anything of that nature. I did not know enough about the race to make a call but I though Scott was the favorite and really not a lot of people posted predictions on that race. I for one am very happy to see Scott win, I may be in the minority here but I think having more minorities and woman in power is a positive, even if they are not on our side. Way to go Scott and Haley.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
SC-House
Four incumbents (3R, 1D) were forced into runoffs.

One seat is finally all-in, and the GOP incumbent won 57-43 after having finished ahead 46-33.

Another is being Inglissed, one is really close and the Dem is hard to tell.


Another one all-in
and the incumbent lost 30-70, Inglis's current margin.

[ Parent ]
Last GOP incumbent goes down 51-49


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the numbers...
... I couldn't get a result on the D one beyond 33% in.  BTW, 3 GOP House incumbents lost two weeks ago as well.

A 4th GOP house member won 51-49 against a 21 y.o. college student, and he was WAYS & MEANS Chairman!


[ Parent ]
Pathetic that GOP turnout is much higher in SC than Dem turnout in NC
350,000+ GOP votes in SC
150,000+ Dem votes in NC

And North Carolina has a bigger population than South Carolina.


Just at a guess
looks like black turnout dropped like a rock. The Black Belt counties look to have only had a fraction of the voters come out in the second round compared to the first.

[ Parent ]
Black Republicans get the trifecta
William Randall won in NC-12, and Bill Marcy has just been called the winner in MS-02. Not that it matters in November, of course.

Check out the
SC-06 runoff for the right to get eaten alive by Jim Clyburn. With 99.3% in they're apart by only 6 votes!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Wow!
Only 2 votes part with 3 precincts left.  I smell recount.

[ Parent ]
Utah Sen
Lee takes an early lead over Bridgewater, 53.6 to 46.4 with .4% in.

Cal Cunningham
What a big disappointment. Guess all t'at hype wasn't worth the paper t'was written on. Losing by 19 points wasn't even close. Maybe Marshall just got lucky because this is supposed to be one o them 'year of the females', t'ain't it?

Judging from Marshall's weakness as a candidate, at this point it looks like Richard Burr may be on the way to be breaking the dreaded 'one term only' curse on his seat there.  


Tom Jensen of Public Policy polling disagrees with you....
He feels that Marshall is a way more electable candidate...

http://tinyurl.com/2u62xhr


[ Parent ]
He worked for her
Not sure how unbiased he is.  

[ Parent ]
I've Heard Cunningham Speak
He comes off more like the John Edwards type of candidate (minus the infidelity, of course). How much politicking does a Secretary of State do anyway to get elected?

[ Parent ]
Inglis
Did he set some sort of record for losses of non-corrupt incumbents in a primary?  

Nothing unexpected
Initially i was surprised by size of Marshall's victory, but only until i noticed a patheticaly low turnout in NC. Less then 160.000 voters came to Democratic runoff in whole state, more then 2 times less then in neighbouring South Caroline for Republican gubernatorial runoff. Taking into account that North Carolina's population is about 2 times of SC - that speaks volumes. Especially - about extremely low interest of potential Democratic voters in this year elections. On the other hand, as SC shows, Republican electorate is very motivated and quite ready to go to the polls. All that bodes ill (so far) for Democratic chances in November.

Devil's advocate
It could mean that there are a slew of NC Democrats who didn't really care which Democrat won the primary because they're happy to vote for either one and didn't feel the need to choose.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Possible
But with every passing week, lookong at very weak state of US economy and low motivation of Democratic voters compared with Reoublican ones, i become more and more sour about Democratic chances in November. A couple of month ago i would rule out a Republican landslide with 99,9% confidence. Not so now.. Even despite the fact that Republicans nominated far from best candidates in number of races (CA-Sen, NV-Sen and so on)

[ Parent ]

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