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TX-Gov: White Catches Up to Perry in New PPP Poll

by: James L.

Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 11:39 AM EDT


Public Policy Polling (pdf) (6/19-21, Texas voters, 2/4-7 in parens):

Bill White (D): 43 (42)
Rick Perry (R-inc): 43 (48)
Undecided: 14 (10)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

For a Texas Democrat in 2010, those are some very strong numbers. Jensen has more:

In almost every race in the country right now Republican voters are more unified around their candidates than Democrats are and independents are leaning toward the GOP. Texas is running against the national grain on both of those counts- White is winning 15% of Republicans while Perry gets just 10% of Democrats and White also has a 42-36 advantage with independent voters.

Perry's job approval is underwater at 36-49, but that's actually a slight uptick from February, when Perry's rating was a dismal 33-50. Among independent voters, Perry's approval is a brutal 27-55. With an A-grade recruit in former Houston Mayor Bill White at the helm, that all adds up to the rare opportunity for a Democratic pick-up in a solid red state like Texas. While the odds are still steep, this should be a fun race to watch.
James L. :: TX-Gov: White Catches Up to Perry in New PPP Poll
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TX-Gov: White Catches Up to Perry in New PPP Poll | 35 comments
I "liked"
Bill White's profile on Facebook and following his campaign through that. His updates are sometimes campaign updates, but a lot of them are thoughtful messages about education, his personal life, and sports. He seems like a genuine guy, a really impressive public servant. Though many will be rooting for Perry to lose just because he's Perry--I can't blame them--I will do anything I can from NY to make sure that White becomes governor.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
I've heard it said that Texas is like New Jersey...
...where Republicans always look like they are about to become competive but always end up falling short no matter what.  Given the Republicans have finally snatched New Jersey perhaps it's time for the other half of the paradigm to catch up?

The problem however is always anemic turnout by the Democratic base and in particular poor voter registration and turnout by Hispanics.  The demographics are shifting our way but a lot of work needs to be done on the infrastructure on the ground.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

We got 2 major infrastructure changes wince 2004
Dallas and Harris counties now have functional, winning, top to bottom democratic parties. Dallas Dems are now winning by giant margins and Harris is White's base, so expect an extra boost on top of what he's got. Additionally, the genius who ran the Harris county coordinated campaign is Bill White's campaign manager.

For those who don't know about Harris County, here's what you need to know, it's Houston as the main city, and dems held 0 county wide offices as of Nov 1, 2008. Obama carried it with 51%, about 39 county wide judges were elected with 3 missing and 3 of the 6 executives won as well, including Adrian Garcia for Sheriff with 57%.

So, there's that.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Yes, lots of expensive work needs to be done
And it's probably going to take a few election cycles, but we have to start somewhere, and even in a Republican year, I think this is the race to do it with.

If we can put Texas in play with this gov's race, and in a few cycles really put it in play at the Presidential level (and keep big states like California, New York, Pennsylvania, and Michigan pretty solidly to solidly in our column), the Republicans are screwed.

[ Parent ]
There really isnt much of a path to victory
without Texas for the GOP.
[ Parent ]
Happy EFFING Dance!!!!!!!!
I'm checking the crosstabs, White has 39% unknown, which sounds right, but the sample is a bit more Democratic than should be expected.

A 43 Republican, 37 Democratic, and 20 Indy sounds right, BUT the 51 McCain, 40 Obama, 9 other does not.

This does seem REALLY close to where it really is. My bet on the real numbers: 45 Perry, 42 White. Which is still EXTREMELY good results.

Side note, I went to a Bill White event on Saturday for organizing Denton County. It's taken them long enough, but it sounds like we're finally going to get our own county office either next month or in August. It's been 2 years since I've dedicated myself to a campaign, I'm ready to go*!!!!!!

*Unless dang grad school wants to get in my way.  :-(

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Yeah,
the sample was a bit high on the D side, all the same the results are encouraging especially when you consider White still has room to grow.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
The McCain-Obama breakdown is reasonable......
McCain won the state by 11, I suppose you might think a more Republican sample this year should produce a stronger McCain bias, but I think that's trumped by very reasonble party ID and ideological breakdowns.

Compare, the 2008 exit poll showed party ID at 34R-33D-33I, and ideological breakdown as 46C-39M-15L.  And race was 63W-20Hispanic-13Black.

The PPP poll has a higher vote share of whites, a far more Republican sample than 2008, and a smaller liberal vote share.

PPP has been very good in its voter turnout modeling this cycle and in fact has shown no Democratic bias, and if anything a slight Republican bias per Nate Silver.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Hrm, I currently see it as...
Indie - 35%
GOP - 33%
Dem - 32%

Perry - 54/87/10 = 51%
White - 46/13/90 = 49%

We do have a real shot here, but I suspect the environment may be too difficult.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Ehh, you're indy numbers are too high
I think PPPs are right at 43 R, 37 D, 20 I.

Also remember, in TX, there are many a Indy for are conservative but don't identify are GOP. Suburbanites, but persuadable after hard pressure from White.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
If
this was 2006 then we would more than likely win. I do not want to get overconfident, but the poll did show White winning independents by a sizeable margin and he is still relatively unknown but you can't put too much stock in one poll. The R lean of the state and the year may save Perry but all the same he has Corzine/Quinn approvals right now and it does look pretty good for us.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Uh, "the environment" favors us
Perry is an incumbent, who got a primary challenge.  We got a strong candidate.

Once again, this race fits with the overall national mood... incumbents are in trouble.  Texas is a red state, but it is definitely in play because of the both the national mood and to a lesser degree Latinos everywhere moving a bit more Dem.

[ Parent ]
Agree it is play
But the upside for Perry is an older, whiter electorate that wants to give the national party in power a kicking. Gonna be tough for White to run against his own party and president.
[ Parent ]
How much has obama messed with Texas the last year and a half?
This being a governor's race and not a senate race, I think White can keep the race about state issues.  
[ Parent ]
TX Dem State Convention
Talk about a good poll going into the state convention this weekend in Corpus Christi.
Hey, I'm going too
I'm heading out Thursday, leave Sunday. Planning on hitting the Blogger and Youth parties Friday night.

Anyone else going to Corpus this weekend?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I yam
going to the clean elections caucus, maybe drop in at the bloggers. Have any thoughts about the Bsrnes/Ritchie race?
[ Parent ]
Do what now?
I figured Ritchie (who I like) was gonna cruise and had nothing more than gadfly opponents. You don't mean Ben Barnes, the former Lt. gov do you?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Michael Barnes
I got a postcard in the mail from him, as well as an email.

Richie should cruise to re-election.

[ Parent ]
Oh him.
Yeah, I got a card from him too. Didn't click his name was barnes. Seems like a nice enough guy, but yeah, Ritchie should cruise. I'll hear Barnes' pitch, but I'm inclined to re-elect Ritchie.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
I'm from Corpus
I've been volunteering all week for the convention.  The city is abuzz for it!

Conservative Democrat, Tx 27
[ Parent ]
I will be there.
I have not decided if i want to go to the young democrat caucus. I am also interested in hearing about Barnes, but I will probably vote for Ritchie again.  

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
PPP Tweet
"Rick Perry's best friend is Obama. If he gets reelected it's because of the President's unpopularity"

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/st...

unpopularity?
Obama lost by only 11% in 2008.  I think that due to changing demographics Obama could flip Texas to blue by 1% or 2% in a best case scenario, making Texas the Indiana of 2012.
[ Parent ]
You lie!
Chuck Norris is Rick Perry's best friend!

Obama is just a convenient political foil.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
So
White should make the race a referendum on Obama. Shouldn't be too much of a problem in Texas, especially if the oil spill reaches Texas' beaches. Bradley Byrne down in Alabama is already airing ads vowing to hold "Obama and BP accountable for their incompetence."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I meant
Perry should make the race a referendum on Obama.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Bill White
Bill White is arguably the best candidate we have in the country.  Even during bad times Houston as a whole did grow.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

Just looked up the other big-city, big-growth mayors in TX
Houston: Lesbian, never gonna happen statewide
Dallas: GOP
Arlington: GOP
Austin: 71 years old
Fort Worth: Mike Moncreif is a Democrat but I cant figure out how old he is.  He looks young enough, maybe between 50-65.
[ Parent ]
As of right now it's San Antonio or bust
Julian Castro is the only mayor with the profile we need for statewide bids. Mike Moncrief of Fort Worth is a Democrat, but he's teetering on Ralph Hall territory with his ideology.

Dallas has their next mayor election in 2011. It's always hard to beat an incumbent, and this will be no exception, but remember how Leppert got there. His opponent was an openly gay city councilman. He reached out to the African Americans in Dallas and won their votes on a social conservative line. There are plenty of dems chomping at the bit to be mayor of Dallas. State Rep. Rafael Anchia is the obvious choice and he becomes farm team material if he gets it.

There is one other. My friend, who is young, skilled, personable, and populist. The recently elected mayor of Galveston, Joe Jaworski.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
More Texas from PPP
Headline: Immigration Bill Fallout in Texas

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Just posted in some thread yesterday
that I really wanted to see how the bill was affecting TX.  Thanks PPP, you heard me calling!

And everyone needs to read that, it's only 4 paragraphs and will take you 5 minutes at most.  Very stark contrasts since the AZ bill was passed.

[ Parent ]
Would love to read it
but blogspot is blocked in China >:(

does it say that the immigration bill is helping us with Hispanics in Texas?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
White has turned
A 53-41 deficit in February into a 55-21 lead with Hispanics.
[ Parent ]
Other data from the PPP Link
Hispanics moving toward Democratic candidates since the Arizona immigration bill was signed is becoming a trend in our polling of western states. Previous races where we polled before and after the signing of the immigration bill showed Rodney Glassman going from a 17 point deficit against John McCain with Hispanics to a 17 point lead, Michael Bennet going from a 12 point lead to a 21 point lead against Jane Norton with them, and Terry Goddard going from a 20 point lead to a 46 point lead with them.

[ Parent ]
TX-Gov: White Catches Up to Perry in New PPP Poll | 35 comments

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