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SSP Daily Digest: 6/18 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jun 18, 2010 at 2:50 PM EDT


CA-Sen: Business Week is out with an interesting list of all the Silicon Valley CEOs who are backing Barbara Boxer... or maybe more to the point, the ones who aren't backing Carly Fiorina, being in the best possible position to evaluate her legacy of fail at HP. Pro-Boxer names include Yahoo's Jerry Yang, Oracle's Larry Ellison, and even Cisco's John Chambers.

FL-Sen: Well, if nothing else, maybe this'll help Marco Rubio's teabaggin' average-guy cred: like so many other Americans, he's facing foreclosure on his home. Well, make that "one of" his homes, so maybe that's not so average. Court documents show he's facing a foreclosure suit on a house he co-owns in Tallahassee along with FL-25 candidate David Rivera. Rubio contends that he and Rivera just paid off the $9K delinquency yesterday (after Politico started asking questions).

NV-Sen: So here's why the GOP is keeping Sharron Angle under wraps while giving her the Eliza Doolittle treatment behind the scenes: an impromptu interview with a KLAS TV reporter turned into Angle getting tied into knots over Social Security "transitioning out" and then cutting the interview short when getting asked about UN withdrawal. It was followed up by a denunciation from a nameless campaign spokesperson who called the reporter "an idiot" and "another term that can't be repeated." Meanwhile, the whole massage/sauna thing keeps being an issue, with Angle now saying that the wacky rehabilitation program that she backed has nothing to do with Scientology... it's a natural homeopathic method that just happens to have been developed by L. Ron Hubbard.

WA-Sen: Here's some more momentum for Clint Didier's tea-flavored campaign: Sarah Palin is doubling down on her backing. He'll be getting at least two appearances with her, who previously endorsed him before Dino Rossi's entry into the race. He also got some sort-of good news from the NRSC, saying that they promised (having gotten burned on the Crist/Rubio and Norton/Buck fronts) that they wouldn't take any sides until there was actually a nominee. (He also took a few whacks at the EPA in the interview, fed up with their "unburdensome regulations.")

MD-Gov: I'm not sure what Brian Murphy, the random right-wing businessman who's running in the GOP primary against Bob Ehrlich, had in mind when he released this internal poll, taken for him by a polling company called Polling Company; it shows him trailing Dem incumbent Martin O'Malley 44-25. The more interesting number is that Ehrlich trails O'Malley by only 1, 44-43. Perhaps the most salient number (the Ehrlich/Murphy matchup) doesn't even get mentioned. Gee, I wonder why?

OK-Gov: The newest Sooner poll has Republican Rep. Mary Fallin looking large and in charge in the open-seat gubernatorial race. Fallin leads state Sen. Randy Brogdon 59-10 in the GOP primary, and leads both Democrats by double-digits: 50-35 against AG Drew Edmondson and 49-36 against LG Jari Askins. The Dem primary is super-close, with Edmondson leading Askins only 37-36. Want to see a Dem win this race? Make sure Brodgon somehow wins the GOP primary. Edmondson leads Brogdon 41-40, while Askins leads 44-36.

AL-07: Terri Sewell is out with an internal poll (from Anzalone Liszt) giving her a lead coming out of the primary and heading into the runoff against Shelia Smoot. Sewell, who's the only candidate who's done much advertising, now claims a 53-33 lead over Smoot (after winning the primary with an 8-pt. margin). The difference maker is that Smoot Sewell is winning the majority (48-38) of backers of third-place finisher Earl Hilliard Jr. (Hilliard has said he won't be endorsing either one in the runoff.)

FL-08: I'm not even sure where to begin with this weird story, but apparently Bruce O'Donoghue, one of the various Republicans in the primary in the 8th, is accusing the Florida Tea Party of being in cahoots with Rep. Alan Grayson, to run Peg Dunmire on their line and split the conservative vote. He's pointing out connections between Grayson and local talk radio host and local Tea Party co-founder Doug Guetzloe, but both Grayson and Guetzloe say those connections aren't meaningful. Recall that the loudly liberal Grayson actually did appear at a teabaggers' rally last summer, but that seemed to mostly be about their common cause over the issue of auditing the Fed.

NC-02: Here's a sign that maybe we don't need to take the Renee Ellmers campaign that seriously, at least not yet: her consultant, Carter Wrenn, is stepping on the NRCC's message management after having gotten gifted a video of Bobby Etheridge's freak-out with trackers. Despite the NRCC's protestations that they have no idea who these innocent "college students" are, Wrenn says that his own conversations with the NRCC indicate that they know who they are.

TX-23: Another slightly stale GOP internal poll (this one by OnMessage, taken in mid-May) shows, big surprise, a competitive race in the 23rd. Incumbent Dem Ciro Rodriguez leads self-funding GOPer Quico Canseco 48-45. Given that internal polls tend to get released only when they show a candidate's best-case scenario, this may actually make me feel a little more confident about Rodriguez, whom we always knew was in for a rough ride this cycle. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

VA-05: Huh, here's a rapid about-face from GOP nominee Robert Hurt. Last Saturday, he said he'd "absolutely" be willing to participate in three-way debates with not just Tom Perriello but also tea-flavored independent Jeffrey Clark. Perhaps Clark was wondering why Perriello seemed very pleased with that (or maybe somebody smarter about this stuff from the NRCC gave him a call and pointed out that Clark's votes are coming only out Hurt's column), but now he's reversed course and says he "cannot allow the important debate in this election to be sidetracked by a candidate who is not serious about his campaign."

WV-03: Here's one other sketchy poll: an internal poll from the camp of Spike Maynard, the GOPer in the race, taken by somebody called Mark Blankenship Enterprises. (Steve Singiser wonders if there's any familial connection to Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship, the travel buddy of Maynard, but this article seems to think not.) At any rate, long-time Rep. Nick Rahall leads Maynard 42-36.

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Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/18 (Afternoon Edition)
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NV-Sen: Patriot Majority's new ad blasting Angle (link)......
I posted this in a comment in another diary, but here it is again so it doesn't get lost in the shuffle:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Patriot Majority is a liberal 3rd-party group who bought real airtime for attack ads against Lowden in the primary.  Now they're going after Angle.  I hope they put real money and points behind this.  This is a killer ad, actually better than Reid's own attack ad.

Angle is getting hammered across the board with no defense whatsoever.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


My jaw literally dropped
Those first 5 seconds are absolutely brutal!  Makes me wonder what she all really said because it's clear they cut and spliced up what she said.  But wow, what kind of fucking moron would literally say "that's not my job as a US Senator" when it comes to a policy question.  If it isnt your job, then you give the response the person whose job it is would give that you would also agree with and move onto the next question.

This race is practically Likely Dem for me already, although maybe I have too much faith in people.


[ Parent ]
One
thing to consider though is Nevada has the highest unemployment in the country. That provides the potential for a nut like Angle to slip by. I have this at tossup tilt Reid at the moment.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Which is why that ad is so brutal
If Reid just plays those first 5 seconds over and over he will win by double digits.  

[ Parent ]
I ditto lovespolitics subject line, that's why the ad is so good......
That's a bad clip for Angle.  Patriot Majority knows what they're doing, they're attacking Angle's very strength, the fact of a bad economy hurting Reid.

To me, this ad actually takes advantage, to hurt Angle and help Reid, of the very same perception hurting Democrats, that Obama and Congressional Democrats have not been "focused enough" on the economy and job.  It's bullshit, in reality they've done what government can do, which is very limited and in the form of fiscal policy.  The stimulus did about as much as government can do, and its size and makeup was what was politically possible.

But this ad turns the same thing against Angle by saying she won't make jobs a priority and instead has a side agenda in mind of pushing her ideology and abolishing social security and Medicare.

It's a great ad.  I hope they bought big points.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
NV senate primary turnout republican
Has anyone done any checking on the republican senate primary turnout?  Can anything be learned from the figures?  Like the turnout in the diehard conservative counties?  And when can we expect a new poll? and not that dippy Rasmussen crap.  I think tea leaves or astrology would be better than Rasmussen.  

Rollo "Rob" Weems

[ Parent ]
I doubt much can be learned since Dem primares were not competitive......
The Democratic gubernatorial and federal office nominations were locked up except maybe for the challenge to Dean Heller, but nothing major there since he's not a viable target this year.

So Democratic turnout was predictably way down from Republican turnout, since the GOP had Senate and gubernatorial nominations up for grabs.

I doubt we can glean anything for November from any of this.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
NV senate, republican primary
What I was wondering was the level of interest among republicans during the primary.  Was this an average primary for them?  Or was there more turn out?  Did the tea bagger victory come from a larger, more energized base?  

Rollo "Rob" Weems

[ Parent ]
He said previously he's voting for Boozman, too, so no surprise, except why did he run...
...in a Democratic primary?  I don't doubt he's a registered Democrat and assume he must be in order to run in a Democratic primary, and I realize that even today there are a lot of white conservaDEms in the South......but if you're really going to vote Republican as a rule anyway, then why not just make it official and switch?

Morrison's prognostication is eyebrow-raising, though, as, before the runoff, even in the same breath as he said he'd vote for Boozman, he predicted that Lincoln would be reelected to the Senate, beating Halter and then Boozman.  He got one upset right, but methinks he'll end up 1-1.  Lincoln's only chance is to run a great campaign while Boozman simultaneously runs a Godawful campaign.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Three way debate could potentially help Hurt
If Clark also attacks Perriello, it could strengthen Hurt's message.  This was what happened in the Massachusetts Governor debates in 2006.  Mihos and Ross both came out gunning for Healey, allowing Patrick to take the high road.  On the other hand, Clark probably wants Perriello to win, and may leave Hurt sandwiched between attacks from both sides. (The theory being that its better to be stuck for Tom for two more years than Rob for twenty)

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

I think you're dead wrong in saying Clark wants Perriello to win......
Clark doesn't want either of them to win.  He despises both, and Perriello more than Hurt.  That's why Clark is running, or else he'd endorse one of the other two.

I think Clark's inclusion helps only Perriello.  It doesn't matter who Clark attacks, it matters only that his conservative message is heard and he's visible.  That's what voters react to, and he can peel away a few rightie voters with enough visibility.  Inclusion in debates is one way for that to happen.  I'm not sure it's enough I think Clark is going to have to raise enough money to buy visibility, and I don't think he'll be able to do that.  But I'm all for his success, as much of it as possible!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Error
Smoot is not winning Hillard's supporters, Sewell is.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Sorry
I tend to avoid posting this trash but Scotty has overdone himself.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Isn't this in line with about everyone else short of some higher than expected GOP numbers?


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
It's off a little from everyone else, but not a lot......
Yes, the high Republican numbers are the outlier compared to all other polling in this race.  But Gillibrand's numbers in Rasmussen also are down maybe a couple points from what the latest other polls say.  So there's some error in both directions.

This really isn't the worst for Rasmussen, but their polling has been soooooo bad for so long that it's plenty bad enough.

I'd say Rasmussen's worst polls have been AR-Sen and KY-Sen post-primary.  And they also showed a dramatic shift to Toomey in PA-Sen in a short time post-primary.  The inaccuracy of Rasmussen's snapshots is matched only by their irrationally erratic trendlines.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Smoot picking up key support of CBC members (AL-07)
NV -This is who they are going to replace Harry Reid with??
   She is such a fool.  And dead wrong about Narconon which is just Scientology by another name.  If you are in doubt about if something is connected with Scientology just look for the court cases.  
  The St. Pete Times just did a series of articles on forced abortions in Scientology, I wonder how that will play with pro-life endorsed Angle?

http://www.xenu-directory.net/...

   

Rollo "Rob" Weems


LOL@the consultant in NC-2
I'm not sure much more needs to be said.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


EPIC-MRA Poll of MI-Gov
Shows Cox now leading the primary, 26 to 24 for Hoekstra, 20 Snyder and 16 Bouchard. Dillon leads Bernero 34-24 among Dems:

http://www.freep.com/article/2...

Oddly enough, the article says that they only polled Snyder and Hoekstra against the Dems. Each is reported to have a lead of 8+ points, though margins aren't reported.


[ Parent ]
Sorry, didn't mean to make that a reply


[ Parent ]
Best new name for a polling firm since POS
The Polling Company.

It's like The Electric Company, but for polls. Or something.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


HEEEEEY YOU GUYS!
I'm behind by 20 points!

[ Parent ]
FL Chamber of Commerce Poll Shows
Crist ahead of Rubio and Meek 42-31-14.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!



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