| So this is my most ambitious and most speculative exercise to date. Below are my predictions for the TWO WAY vote in every House race that I expect to be within 20% (plus three pickups in AR-02, LA-03, and TN-06 that I expect to be greater than 20%). Unlike my previous efforts, this is almost entirely unscientific and subjective, except that I have tried to make a reasonable distribution of margins of victories (not too many close ones, not too many blowouts).
Overall, I have a net of 25 seats to the Republicans, with 29 Republican pickups and 4 Democratic ones. Pickups are in bold.
AK-AL - Young (R) 59, Crawford (D) 40 - Crawford underfunded and AK too red.
AL-02 - Bright (D) 50.3, Roby (R) 49.7 - Bright scrapes by with conservative record.
AL-05 - Brooks (R) 59, Raby (D) 41 - Northern Alabama going red fast.
AR-01 - Causey 50 (D), Crawford (R) 49 - AR Dems able to focus here for lack of other competitive races.
AR-02 - Griffin (R) 60, Elliott (D) 40 - This one was decided by the Dem primary.
AZ-01 - Kirkpatrick (D) 53, Gosar (R) 46 - Republican field somewhat unimpressive.
AZ-03 - Quayle (R) 59, Hulburd (D) 41 - R+9 open seat too much to ask this cycle.
AZ-05 - Mitchell (D) 51, Schweikert (R) 48 - Rematch of 2008, where Mitchell won by 9.
AZ-08 - Giffords (D) 52, Paton (R) 47 - Paton a strong candidate, but Giffords has lots of $$$.
CA-03 - Lungren (R) 55, Bera (D) 44 - R+6 seat too tough in this environment.
CA-11 - McNerney (D) 52, Harmer (R) 48 - McNerney wins a squeaker. Bluing part of Cali.
CA-18 - Cardoza (D) 56, Berryhill (R) 43 - Cardoza needs to raise more $$$.
CA-20 - Costa (D) 59, Vidak (R) 41 - No problem for Costa.
CA-44 - Calvert (R) 59, Hedrick (D) 41 - Calvert not taken by surprise this time.
CA-45 - Bono-Mack (R) 58, Pougnet (D) 41 - Bono-Mack prevails in favorable environment.
CA-47 - Sanchez (D) 58, Tran (R) 41 - Have never taken this one too seriously.
CO-03 - Salazar (D) 54, Tipton (R) 46 - Substantial $$$ advantage for Salazar.
CO-04 - Gardner (R) 53, Markey (D) 47 - Tough HCR vote in this district.
CO-07 - Perlmutter (D) 56, Frazier (R) 43 - D+4 district. Perlmutter has fundraised well.
CT-04 - Himes (D) 56, Debicella (R) 44 - Himes a super fundraiser.
CT-05 - Murphy (D) 56, Caliguiri (R) 43 - Murphy notches relatively comfortable win.
DE-AL - Carney (D) 55, Urquhart (R) 45 - Glad Carney got in the race early.
FL-02 - Southerland (R) 51, Boyd (D) 48 - HCR vote seals Boyd's fate.
FL-08 - Grayson 50 (D), Webster (R) 49 - Grayson spends huge to win.
FL-10 - Young (R) 59, Justice (D) 40 - Poor Charlie Justice. Fundraising embarrassing.
FL-12 - Ross (R) 57, Edwards (D) 43 - Once-promising race goes by the wayside due to environment.
FL-22 - Klein (D) 53, West (R) 47 - West has raised tons of $$$, but thankfully Klein has too.
FL-24 - Miller 50 (R), Kosmas (D) 49 - Another tough HCR vote for the district.
FL-25 - Rivera (R) 55, Garcia (D) 44 - Rivera had monster first fundraising quarter.
GA-02 - Bishop (D) 56, Keown (R) 43 - Bishop is pretty entrenched in this heavily AA district.
GA-08 - Marshall (D) 54, Scott (R) 45 - Scott starting from scratch in fundraising.
HI-01 - Hanabusa (D) 54, Djou (R) 46 - Djou can beat two Democrats but not one.
IA-03 - Boswell (D) 54, Zaun (R) 45 - Zaun has a lot of catching up to do in fundraising.
ID-01 - Minnick 50.4 (D), Labrador (R) 49.6 - Tough year to rely on crossover votes.
IL-08 - Bean (D) 58, Walsh (R) 41 - This one could be worse. Walsh is a joke.
IL-10 - Seals (D) 50.1, Dold (R) 49.9 - Seals squeaks by in 20%+ Obama district.
IL-11 - Kinzinger (R) 53, Halvorson (D) 47 - Kinzinger an outstanding candidate.
IL-14 - Hultgren 50 (R), Foster (D) 49 - Top of the ticket hurts Foster.
IL-17 - Hare (D) 58, Schilling (R) 42 - Schilling raising decent money in D+3 seat.
IN-02 - Donnelly (D) 55, Walorski (R) 45 - Jacky too wacky to win.
IN-08 - Bucshon (R) 52, Van Haaften (D) 47 - Van Haaften a good candidate, but tough district.
IN-09 - Young 50 (R), Hill (D) 49 - Another tough HCR vote.
KS-03 - Yoder (R) 55, Moore (D) 45 - Big fundraising head start for Republicans.
KS-04 - Pompeo (R) 59, Goyle (D) 40 - Way too red for this cycle.
KY-03 - Yarmuth (D) 59, Lally (R) 40 - Lally only semi-serious competition.
KY-06 - Chandler (D) 54, Barr (R) 45 - Barr is a decent candidate, but Chandler should win comfortably.
LA-02 - Richmond (D) 58, Cao (R) 41 - Huge Dem lean too much for Cao.
LA-03 - Downer (R) 61, Sangisetty (D) 38 - Easy pickup in Cajun country.
MA-05 - Tsongas (D) 59, Golnik (R) 40 - Golnik has raised some decent $$$.
MA-10 - Keating (D) 55, Perry (R) 45 - Don't think this hyped race will be all that close.
MD-01 - Harris (R) 53, Kratovil (D) 46 - Really tough district for Kratovil to defend.
MI-01 - Allen (R) 52, McDowell (D) 47 - Tough district for Dems to hold.
MI-07 - Walberg (R) 52, Schauer (D) 48 - Schauer barely got by Walberg in 2008.
MI-09 - Peters (D) 55, Welday (R) 44 - Peters has huge financial edge.
MN-01 - Walz (D) 57, Demmer (R) 42 - Big financial edge for Walz.
MN-06 - Bachmann (R) 57, Clark (D) 43 - PPP poll did not bode well for Clark.
MO-03 - Carnahan (D) 56, Martin (R) 43 - Martin has raised some serious $$$.
MO-04 - Skelton (D) 54, Stouffer (R) 45 - Tough race but Skelton pulls through comfortably.
MS-01 - Nunnellee (R) 53, Childers (D) 46 - Wish Nunnellee had to deal with a runoff on Tuesday.
MS-04 - Taylor (D) 57, Palazzo (R) 43 - Taylor very well entrenched in incredibly red district.
NC-02 - Etheridge (D) 58, Ellmers (R) 42 - Don't think the fisticuffs will have a tremendous impact here.
NC-07 - McIntyre (D) 58, Pantano (R) 41 - McIntyre has gone as far as any Dem to act Republican.
NC-08 - Kissell (D) 54, Johnson (R) 46 - PPP polling suggests Kissell will be OK here.
NC-11 - Shuler (D) 55, Miller (R) 44 - Shuler a very good fit for the district.
ND-AL - Berg 51 (R), Pomeroy (D) 49 - Hoeven coattails carry Berg.
NE-02 - Terry (R) 57, White (D) 43 - Too much to ask for in this cycle.
NH-01 - Guinta (R) 50.2, Shea-Porter (D) 49.8 - Tough year for Dems in NH.
NH-02 - Bass (R) 52, Kuster (D) 48 - Bass has strong polling leads.
NJ-03 - Adler (D) 54, Runyan (R) 45 - Runyan better at pass blocking than politics.
NJ-12 - Holt (D) 56, Sipprelle (R) 43 - Sipprelle has just about matched Holt fundraising.
NM-01 - Heinrich (D) 56, Barela (R) 44 - Heinrich should hold on in Dem district.
NM-02 - Pearce (R) 51, Teague (D) 48 - Tough district, tough opponent.
NV-03 - Heck (R) 52, Titus (D) 48 - Polls show Titus down.
NY-01 - Bishop (D) 54, Altschuler (R) 46 - Altschuler spending scary money.
NY-13 - McMahon (D) 55, Allegretti (R) 44 - Republicans in this district are a mess.
NY-19 - Hall (D) 53, Hayworth (R) 46 - Hall needs to get on the fundraising.
NY-20 - Murphy (D) 57, Gibson (R) 42 - Murphy lucky to have lackluster opponent.
NY-23 - Owens (D) 53, Hoffman (R) 46 - Owens widens lead in re-match.
NY-24 - Hanna (R) 52, Arcuri (D) 47 - Arcuri a poor candidate and Hanna a good one.
NY-25 - Maffei (D) 58, Buerkle (R) 42 - Maffei should be OK against subpar opposition.
NY-29 - Reed (R) 58, Zeller (D) 42 - Easy pickup for the GOP.
OH-01 - Chabot (R) 56, Driehaus (D) 44 - Afraid the awful polls are right on this one.
OH-06 - Wilson (D) 58, Johnson (R) 42 - Wilson has not had any problem in this Appalachia district.
OH-12 - Tiberi (R) 59, Brooks (D) 41 - Big financial edge for Tiberi.
OH-13 - Sutton (D) 55, Ganley (R) 45 - $$$ isn't everything. Sutton wins Dem district.
OH-15 - Stivers (R) 56, Kilroy (D) 44 - Kilroy only swept in because of strong 2008 environment.
OH-16 - Renacci (R) 53, Boccieri (D) 46 - Tough HCR vote for Boccieri in this district.
OH-18 - Space 51 (D), Gibbs (R) 49 - Huge Space fundraising edge.
OR-01 - Wu (D) 57, Cornilles (R) 43 - Should be enough Dem votes here for Wu to get by pretty easily.
OR-04 - DeFazio (D) 58, Robinson (R) 42 - Only a D+1 district, but no problem for DeFazio.
OR-05 - Schrader (D) 56, Bruun (R) 44 - Swing district, but Schrader should win.
PA-03 - Dahlkemper (D) 54, Kelly (R) 46 - Republicans failed to land big-time opponent here.
PA-04 - Altmire (D) 55, Rothfus (R) 45 - Altmire in a decent position for re-election.
PA-06 - Gerlach (R) 57, Trivedi (D) 43 - This isn't the year to finally take out Gerlach.
PA-07 - Meehan 51 (R), Lentz (D) 49 - Meehan financial advantage gets him through.
PA-08 - Murphy (D) 52, Fitzpatrick (R) 48 - Worried about this one. Fitzpatrick raising $$$ fast.
PA-10 - Carney 51 (D), Marino (R) 49 - Carney a good politician with a strong financial edge.
PA-11 - Barletta (R) 50.4, Kanjorski (D) 49.6 - Kanjorski barely got by in 2008.
PA-12 - Critz (D) 53, Burns (R) 47 - Critz takes the re-match.
PA-15 - Dent (R) 55, Callahan (D) 44 - Tough to take out Republican incumbents this cycle.
PA-16 - Pitts (R) 59, Herr (D) 41 - PPP showed a 9-point race here.
PA-17 - Holden (D) 57, Argall (R) 42 - Holden survived 1994. He'll survive this.
SC-02 - Wilson (R) 59, Miller (D) 40 - "You lie!" outburst goes unpunished.
SC-05 - Spratt (D) 51, Mulvaney (R) 48 - Spratt barely holds on.
SD-AL - Herseth-Sandlin (D) 52, Noem (R) 48 - Don't see the fireable offense for Herseth-Sandlin.
TN-04 - Davis (D) 53, Bailey (R) 47 - Republican internal had Davis up 11 in March.
TN-06 - Tracy (R) 63, Leming (D) 36 - Dems giving this one away.
TN-08 - Herron (D) 50.1, Fincher (R) 49.9 - Strong candidate squeaks by in tough district.
TX-17 - Flores (R) 53, Edwards (D) 47 - R lean of the district finally catches up to Edwards.
TX-23 - Rodriguez (D) 54, Canseco (R) 46 - Moderately competitive race for Ciro.
TX-27 - Ortiz (D) 58, Farenthold (R) 41 - Not much trouble for Ortiz.
UT-02 - Matheson (D) 57, Philpot (R) 42 - Matheson has enormous financial advantage.
VA-02 - Rigell (R) 51, Nye (D) 48 - One of those districts that sweeps in and out with environment.
VA-05 - Hurt 51 (R), Periello (D) 49 - Periello needs Teabagger to draw from Hurt.
VA-09 - Boucher (D) 54, Griffith (R) 45 - Big financial advantage for Boucher.
VA-11 - Connolly (D) 52, Fimian (R) 47 - Fimian ran reasonably strong in 2008, losing by 11.
WA-02 - Larsen (D) 57, Koster (R) 42 - Koster reasonably well-funded.
WA-03 - Heck 51 (D), Herrera (R) 49 - Heck has early financial edge.
WA-08 - Reichert (R) 56, DelBene (D) 44 - Too tough a year to beat Reichert.
WI-03 - Kind (D) 57, Kanapke (R) 42 - Big financial edge for Kind.
WI-07 - Lassa (D) 51, Duffy (R) 48 - Maybe it's just hard for me to take reality TV stars seriously.
WI-08 - Kagen (D) 52, Ribble (R) 47 - Kagen goes into his pockets to win another tough race.
WV-01 - Oliviero (D) 50, McKinley (R) 49 - Incredibly conservative Oliviero squeaks by.