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NV-Sen: Reid Scores GOP Endorsements, Launches First Anti-Angle Ad

by: DavidNYC

Sun Jun 13, 2010 at 11:01 PM EDT


Is Harry Reid the luckiest mofo in politics? Fresh off getting the craziest imaginable opponent, he scored two big endorsements, both from Republicans. Reno Mayor Bob Cashell had backed Sue Lowden in the primary, but after Chicken Lady's goose got cooked, he switched to Reid instead, calling Angle "wild" and "an ultra-right winger." He's right!

The other boldface name newly in Reid's corner belongs to Dawn Gibbons, the estranged and soon-to-be-ex-wife of lame-duck Gov. Jim Gibbons. Dawn Gibbons, you may recall, came in third against Angle in the NV-02 GOP primary in 2006, and describes her as a tough campaigner. (Angle lost to now-Rep. Dean Heller by fewer than 500 votes.) But Gibbons says she thinks Reid is better on the economy. (She also declined to endorse Brian Sandoval, the man who beat her husband in the gubernatorial race.)

While we're on the subject of Reid's good fortune, a piece in the WSJ suggests he might be able to win this year with less than 50%. That's because there are multiple independent candidates, at least two third-party candidates, and Nevada's famous "none of these candidates" option on the ballot. Interestingly, Todd Palin-like, Angle was once a member of one of these third parties, the Independent American Party, which, according to the WSJ, "opposes gun control, illegal immigration, abortion, gay rights and 'global government'." There's probably a treasure trove of dirt on these nutters.

Meanwhile, Reid has a new ad up absolutely lacerating Angle for wanting to do away with Medicare and Social Security. And I think it even uses a clip from that gonzo Sue Lowden ad attacking Angle for her "massages-for-cons" proposal. (Relatedly, Angle surfaced in a 2007 video touting this Scientology-backed program.) No word, as per usual, on the size of the buy, though the AP says it's "airing statewide." See it for yourself:

For her part, Angle just hired Scott Brown's web consultants, hoping to recreate his sui generis success in Massachusetts - but I know I don't need to list the myriad ways in which Angle and Brown are nothing alike. She's also jetting off to Manhattan to parlay with the "Monday Meeting," a right-wing cabal of NYC plutocrats, modeled after Grover Norquist's DC-based Wednesday meetings. While I'm sure the cultural differences will be extreme, as long as Angle sticks to her plan to abolish the 16th amendment, she'll get along fine with this gang of banksters.
DavidNYC :: NV-Sen: Reid Scores GOP Endorsements, Launches First Anti-Angle Ad
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NV-Sen: Reid Scores GOP Endorsements, Launches First Anti-Angle Ad | 49 comments
Sharron
Angle: Too extreme for Nevada and America. Cornyn should of badgered Dean Heller or John Porter 24/7 until they agreed to run against Reid. This is what you get when your so confident that you'll beat someone you nominate anyone, including complete nutjobs.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Who is Porter?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Porter
served as Congressman from NV-03 until 2008 when Reid started getting rid of possible "early opponents" by getting Dina Titus to run (who won)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
So did Reid also push out the guy who was our candidate before Titus
Ive always heard he's the one who got her into the race so he could have Porter taken out, but never bothered to ask if that also means he got the other guy to drop-out
[ Parent ]
Beautiful, BEAUTIFUL Ad!!!!
It hits the crazy right from the start, ties into previous accusations of crazy (and makes Scientology more prominent than Lowden did in hers) AND leaves and open ending to make a whole of series of ads like this that will always reference the last ones. I look forward to the eventual Fluoride one with clips from Dr. Strangelove inserted into it.

Jack Conway, take note. This is how you take down the stupid/crazy republicans.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

That's exactly what I thought
The "What's Next" at the end makes it clear this is going to be a series of ads, ramping up the crazy with each one.  Who knows, with Angle the floruide one might not even be the craziest.
[ Parent ]
Reid, Conway, and Tarryl Clark from MN-6
should form a fundraising committee; they'd be able to play-off each other really well in fundraising letters about having to beat Angle, Paul, and Bachmann.
[ Parent ]
The Sanity PAC
n/t

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Hypocrisy
I love when these issues come up because it really shows how politically bipolar the electorate is.  People will think it is horrible she opposes Social Security, but they will think it is just as horrible if Reid came out in favor of some tax to adequately fund it.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
Bingo!
and that is why I have very little respect for the electorate as a whole.  Everyone agrees we need to fix Social Security, but the electorate will not tolerate the two options we have to fixing it, taxing more or cutting it.  That's why we'll wait til the last minute and have it to be a giant shit show.
[ Parent ]
On the whole a very good ad.
Postives:
Using Angle herself to read the quote.
The "What's Next" Tagline.
Images of Senior citizens. Especially the empty plates.

Negatives:
The Scientology thing seems disjointed and slightly offputting especially to Democrat-Scientologists in Nevada.  I am sure that there are 50 or so (maybe more) in Nevada who could make the difference.  Reid could have been more subtle.  Makes an excellent ad "very good" instead.

Scientologists will vote for Angle
anyway, I would think.

I don't think that focusing on kooks is a bad thing to do, politically.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Scientologists Vote For Angle
If she got the entire adult Scientology population of Nevada to vote for her it would be about 300 votes.  Regardless of that lies they say about membership there are only about 25,000 in the US at the very, very most.  And those are concentrated mostly in CA with a few more thousand in Fl.  At most there are 100,000 in the whole world.  They have been in decline since the late 1980's.  There is no evidence to suggest that they ever had anything like a million members,not even if they included their dogs, gold fish and cats. Rollo Weems

Rollo "Rob" Weems
[ Parent ]
I admit to being a bit put off
by the "your religion is the crazy one" implication. But, well. . . I'm not touching that one.  
[ Parent ]
I really wasn't put off by it
I'm with you in "not touching" the whole "criticizing someone's religion" thing ... but I think he's pretty politically safe in going after scientiology with all guns blazing.  I think most people recognize scientiology not as a religion, but as a ponzi scheme.  Further, being a Mormon, I think Harry Reid is pretty sensitive to this.
[ Parent ]
Agree, there's zero risk in attacking Scientology......
It's a cult, it's the butt of jokes, and I've never been in a circle of people socially or professionally where making fun of scientology risked offending anyone.  No one acknowledges it as a legitimate religion.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
And I really cant think of another religion where you can get away
with such open mocking.  Definitely not Mormons (even if many do to their friends) and while many mock Jehovah's witnesses because of their door-knocking, they are still Christian so tv ads saying, you're crazy, wouldnt fly.

Scientology has to do with aliens or something; people dont view that as a legitimate higher being.

[ Parent ]
Plus
you know whenever most people think of Scientology you think of Tom Cruise who's one of the biggest assholes ever to walk on the face Earth.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Endorsements
I remember reading something a few months back, maybe it was on here, about Reid's GOP endorsements. It seems he's doing quite well with some big name GOP friendly Nevada businessmen and local GOP elected officials (municipal, county, and I think a few former state legislators).

Really, I think everyone is underestimating Reid.

I don't think a candidate who
said those things could win a Senate race in a single state in the country. You DO NOT propose phasing out Social Security and win.

I have to believe that Reid is strongly favored at this point--shockingly.  

I believe he is favored as well
If Angle wins, that's going to say about this cycle in general.
[ Parent ]
Angle seems
like a goldmine for opposition researchers.
That ad is exactly the reason I've always been pretty optimistic about Reid
Especially relative to Blanche Lincoln (who has nothing on Reid on campaigning).

Reid might be unpopular, but he knows how to use negative ads to his advantage (and when it's all said and done, I think it's entirely possible that Reid wins against Angle in the mid-single digits).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

I
never thought this would happen but I am moving this race from leans R to leans D, tossup at the worst.

My current Predix

Reid-44%
Angle-39%
NOA/Tea Party/other-17%

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Reid might win by 5, but I can't imagine 17% voting third-party
Right now, I suspect the race looks more like...

Dem - 36%
Indie - 34%
GOP - 30%

Reid - 90/43/7 = 49%
Angle - 5/40/85 = 42%
Ashjian - 0/2/3 = 1%
None - 3/10/7 = 5%
Other - 2/5/3 = 3%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I don't agree with your turnout model, but...
...the end result of a Reid win is what I think will happen.  And from what I've read, quite a few D.C. Republican strategists now think Reid will win.  There's an understanding among people who know who Angle is that a good campaign against her will make her unacceptable, she crosses a line for too many voters.

But that said, Angle will have enough enthusiasm from the right-wing extremist base, combined with the Republicans' broader enthusiasm advantage, to keep the turnout model much friendlier than 36D-30R.  I think it will be much more even, perhaps with a slight Republican edge.

But I do think Reid ends up with more crossover support than Angle, and at least breaks even with indies for a narrow win.

I just saw the new 3rd-party attack ad by "American Crossroads" this morning, and it's a good ad.  It's a reminder that Reid is plenty vulnerable, that voters will be reminded why they dislike him and the Democrats just as much as they'll be educated to dislike Angle.  So this thing is not going to be easy at all, it will be competitive for a long time, perhaps right into election day.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Dawn Gibbons
Thats not really new. IDK why he is releasing that endorsement again. She endorsed him earlier last year. http://www.harryreid.com/ee/in...
June 3 2009 she joined Republicans for Reid.  
The more important endorsement is Cashell

He is one of the more important republicans in the state. He was previously Lieutenant Governor (like Krolicki now).

I know not exactly his age, but if he is under 70 years old still, I think he would be a serious candidate for this race if he run.

[ Parent ]
If you don't know why, you don't know much about campaigns......
This is exactly the time to re-release endorsements, and frankly pretending one is new when it's not is perfectly safe.  It's about garnering positive press when people are paying a little attention, hard on the heels of the primary.

No one was paying attention when Dawn Gibbons endorsed Reid last year.  But they're paying attention now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It got me to read about it earlier yesterday
I believe it was an MSM outlet (so very effective) and in it, the article said how she's been supporting him for a year now, so re-releasing it gave Reid the shot for the free article and the chance to show that she's been with him all along, if you read the whole article.
[ Parent ]
Sorry guys
Unless Obama and Reid's favorable numbers improve in this state, Angle wins this thing by a good 8-10 points.

Nevadans don't like Obama and Reid personally and I don't see any other explanation for their low favorable numbers other than the fact that it's personal.

If Corzine wasn't able to do it in a state where Obama was personally popular and a state much more advantageous to Democrats than Nevada, Reid won't be able to do it.  Angle's personal numbers were better than Christie's as well and Christie is a guy who comes off as a very unlikable politician.

You place too much emphasis of favorability
At this stage Christie had good numbers and a big lead. Corzine tore him down and came up short. Here Angle has good numbers but fewer people know her and they are basically tied. She may still win but you are too confident.
[ Parent ]
Yup, Reid is in a much stronger position than Corzine ever was. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Re. Angle vs. Christie
This comment by DCCyclone in another thread spoke to me.  I think it's right:

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Oops - Meant to post this one.
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Dont feed the troll everyone
:)
[ Parent ]
Do campaign committees copyright their campaign ads?
If so, that would imply that Sue Lowden gave permission to Reid to use that except from her Scientology spa massage ad. (Unless those four seconds might be considered fair use.)

Notice though that in Reid's ad the clip ended before it got to the framed picture of Tom Cruise.
I guess Reid didn't want to go there...

Fair use...
...it applies here.
[ Parent ]
Harry had a lot to do with
that luck.

The Reid political operation has been preparing for his re-election since the day after his last re-election race.

Reid brought the 2008 presidential caucus to NV in part because it would be a good party building exercise for the NV Dem Party. He brought in professionals to NV to run the party, too. He made sure that those state Republicans who weren't crazy, were defeated or maneuvered out of the way prior to this election cycle. (In other words, some targeted Republicans in 06 and 08 were targeted because that way they couldn't run against Reid in 2010 if they lost.)

And of course, Reid has always benefited from the fact that you can vote "none of the above" in NV. This is one state where your win number doesn't have to be 50+1, and Reid's won with less than 50 before.  

Scientology Fun in Nevada pt. 2, Narconon & Snow White
Since I wrote last week* following the primary about Narconon, Scientology and Sharron Angle I have heard from a source close to her campaign, or at least a lot closer than myself, that she is not willing to throw this destructive and highly aggressive cult under the bus.  Apparently she has a stubborn nature and Scientology's position on drugs, we are talking about legal drugs here, appeals to her.  There is talk among her advisors that since she can't or won't run away that maybe Scientology could be rehabilitated to some extent for the purposes of this election.  They think that since few people have any real idea of what Scientology is that they can soft peddle things by saying they are just a bunch of well meaning, but confused people, who have gotten a bad rap from the liberal media.  There is no end to the arguments along these lines that could, and will, be made.  After all, they plan on saying, if John Travolta is a member just how bad can this be??
Just let me make a few more comments about Narconon.  Besides being Scientology under another name it is junk science founded on L. Ron Hubbard's understanding of 1950's era literature on vitamins and borrowed regimens of steam and sweat.  No scientist or clinician of any stature would stand up for this pile of crap today.  The favorable reviews are almost all written by Scientologists or people who lack any real credentials in the field of addiction.  The success stores that are waved about are mandatory and done before the so-called treatment is finished and are worthless as such.
Of special interest is the fact that the two main Scientologists, Arte Maren and Henning Heldt, who were responsible for helping Hubbard put Narconon together were both fingered in the infamous Scientology scandal, "Operation Snow White."  Hubbard's wife and Henning both did hard time in the federal pen for orchestrating the burglary of the Justice Department and other government agencies.  Arte Maren, was listed as an unindicted co-conspirator.  Both of these men are still active Scientologists  A low point was reached even for Scientologists when they drowned a judge's dog in an effort to make him recuse himself.
These are the fine people that Sharron Angle helped out.  To read more about Snow White there are a lot of good web sites but here are some of the better ones.  Thanks, Rollo Weems.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O...
http://www.xenu.net/archive/go...
http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dst/Nar...

* http://www.swingstateproject.c...



Rollo "Rob" Weems

Can you document or describe your source?
That's relevant to the campaign. Your expose of Scientology, while somewhat interesting and certainly not offensive to me (I made my views of the so-called religion clear in an off-hand way), is not analysis of the campaign as such.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Angle & Scientology. What was she thinking??
   In order to understand the magnitude of Sharron Angle's gaff in getting involved with Scientology it is important to understand that she did not just get involved with "Just Another Religion."  What she did, more than once, was carry water for a group that did things the Mafia wouldn't have the balls to do.  
  In any election a key question is judgement.  That is what we are electing people to use.  If they fail to use their noodle and do stupid things we have a right to know about it.  And her mistake in this case is monumental.
  She must have known about the scandals of Sciengology.  She would have to be blind, deaf and dumb not to.  The same goes for Narconon.  Any amount of checking would have shown it for what it for the farce it is.  
  I have a few conservative freinds who hate the cult every bit as much as I do.  And they are active in this campaign, that is all I will say as to my sources.  
  Again, judgement is the issue here.  Anyone seeking high office must show why they deserve that office.  In this case she failed repeatedly. Rollo Weems

   

Rollo "Rob" Weems

[ Parent ]
I certainly agree with you
So you know some moles who are working for Angle's campaign in order to leak stuff and damage her? Wow.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Moles?
   I think we are talking here of mice, not moles.  I don't have any link to her inside advisors but finding out what goes on in any campaign is easy as hell if you are a)a good listener, b)have a car or better yet a van or truck, c)have time on your hands as in being retired, and willing to run errands and pick up people for the airport, etc.  
  There are few secrets that can be held for any length of time in any campaign.  I once worked for a state senate caucus back in my youth and I can say you need not be Sherlock Holmes to find things out.  
  In the end it is my opinion that with a person like Angle all you need do is wait and listen, she will do the rest herself.  She can't help it, it is her nature. -Rollo Weems, Humboldt Co.

Rollo "Rob" Weems
[ Parent ]
Forced Abortions in Scientology, St. Pete Times 6/13/10
There have been stories about forced abortions in Sciengology for years but this is the best recent story.  I wonder how well this will play among the conservatives??  This is the group Sharron Angle is in bed with.  

http://www.tampabay.com/news/s...

Rollo "Rob" Weems

I predicted this
For as toxic as Harry Reid is, he's smart, and he knows how to brand somebody. Harry Reid will look like The Great Hope before it's said and done, because Angle will look so bad in comparison

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
A few notes
About this talk about Heller: I've read  that he's good buds with Reid, and will almost surely run for (and, let's face it, almost surely win) John Ensign's seat. He's the best candidate in either party, in my opinion, in all of Nevada and wouldn't have to run against the zillions of dollars and national backing of Reid. If he won, nevada would also two have LDS senators, so maybe thats important to him too. Seems like a really good strategy to me.

Also on Heller, he slammed Angle on Scientology in 2006 and only won by a small margin. I don't know if it helped or hurt...

By the way, the most important thing about Angle's win is that it will mobilize all Democrats. As someone who will always vote Democrats, I have always had a "meh" opinion of Reid. If I lived in NV, I'd be working my tail off to make sure Angle doesn't read the Senate.

Reid is going to win thing by a lot. Quote me on thAt.  

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

I still wonder why Porter passed on the race
With Heller and Porter still as big names who would run for a Senate seat, I doubt they both would have allowed themselves to run against each other for Ensign's seat.
[ Parent ]
I wonder if the Independent American Party
is related to the American Independence Party, which was the third party that George Wallace founded to run for president in 1968.
NV-Sen: Reid Scores GOP Endorsements, Launches First Anti-Angle Ad | 49 comments

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