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Redistricting Alabama: Two VRA Districts

by: TheUnknown285

Sun Jun 13, 2010 at 6:37 PM EDT


There are a few scenarios which could give rise to this map. If control of redistricting is split, then I could see this as a compromise map. As you'll soon see, Mike Rogers' life gets easier while the Second District becomes solidly Democratic (albeit with Bobby Bright is serious trouble in the primary, assuming he's still around).

 Even if Democrats have the redistricting trifecta, the fact that only one of the state's seven districts can be counted on to go Democratic and only one another saw Obama get more than 40% of the vote has got to be worrisome. So, a map such as this can also be seen as a Democratic gerrymander of sorts in that it makes two solidly Democratic districts.

I could even see this as a Republican map, especially if Bobby Bright survives. If that happens, they could concede the Second in return for shoring up their most vulnerable member: Mike Rogers.

Finally, this map could result from a decision by the courts or the Justice Department mandating that Alabama have another black-majority district. 2005 Census estimates put Alabama at 26.7% black. That amounts to just under two districts, and considering that adding another majority black district to Alabama is fairly easy as the heavily black areas tend to be clustered or at least fairly close to each other.
TheUnknown285 :: Redistricting Alabama: Two VRA Districts

State Map

 

First District (Blue)
Old District: 67.8% white | 28% black
Old Demographics: 82% white | 13% black
New Demographics: 81% white | 13% black

The First exchanges heavily black areas in Mobile for rural, white areas along the Florida border. The net result is a significantly whiter and probably more Republican district, as if Jo Bonner needed it.  

Second District (Green)
Old District: 67% white | 29% black
Old Demographics: 44% white | 53% black
New Demographics: 41% white | 55% black

Previous attempts to move the black areas of Mobile to the Seventh District and move extra black areas from the Seventh to the Second were unsuccessful as it left the First and Second underpopulated with nowhere to gain that wouldn't negate the whole purpose. But moving this area into the Second does work. The Second also picks up heavily black areas from the Seventh and Third and loses whiter areas to the First and Third. As a result, the district is now majority black and, I would assume, pretty solidly Democratic. Bobby Bright would likely have trouble in the primary, though.

Third District (Purple)
Old District: 65% white | 32% black
Old Demographics: 74% white | 22% black
New Demographics: 73% white | 23% black

Things get easier for Mike Rogers. Not only has the district been pushed northward out of the black belt (or at least the blackest parts of it), becoming almost three-quarters white, but Rogers' Democratic opponent Josh Segall is now in the Second District.

Fourth District (Red)
Old District: 90% white | 5% black
Old Demographics: 90% white | 6% black
New Demographics: 88% white | 6% black

The Fourth remains Alabama's whitest and least diverse districts. I tried to make it a heavily rural district, which you may can see in its loss of Fort Payne and Gadsden. That effort may have been futile as I had to put Florence and parts of Tuscaloosa in the district. I would be shocked if Rob Aderholt had any problems here.

Fifth District (Yellow)
Old District: 78% white | 17% black
Old Demographics: 79% white | 15% black
New Demographics: 76% white | 16% black

With this one, I tried to make it more urban (or at least less rural) as well as concentrate the military interests in one district. The new Fifth picks of Decatur and Fort Payne, among other areas, and sheds some more rural areas.

Sixth District (Teal)
Old District: 89% white | 8% black
Old Demographics: 88% white | 8% black
New Demographics: 85% white | 10% black

With the loss of Tuscaloosa County, the Sixth loses much of its former serpentine shape. With the addition of Autauga County, the district becomes more of a Birmingham to Montgomery district.

Seventh District (Gray)
Old District: 36% white | 62% black
Old Demographics: 37% white | 60% black
New Demographics: 35% white | 61% black

Not a whole lot has changed here. It loses some of Clarke County, giving the district a more compact look, as well as parts of Pickens and Wilcox Counties. In return, it gains some Birmingham-area precincts. The story is still the same: heavily black and solidly Democratic.
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Redistricting Alabama: Two VRA Districts | 39 comments
Good Job
I played around the application a little bit, and could get the two black-majority districts, but yours look much more plausible and less gerrymandered than anything I came up with.  I'm sure as you found out, the hard part was linking the black parts of Mobile to Montgomery County.

I'd take this map any day -- the reality is that we took a shot or two at Mike Rogers in a good Democratic year with a good candidate, and didn't come all that close.

Is it really necessary for the seventh to be over 60% black?
It could contribute a few counties to the second so you don't have that weird tentacle into Mobile.
I'm not sure how the VRA treats it.
At what point does it become diluting the minority vote?  

Plus, if the Second doesn't go into Mobile, the first can't go into SE Alabama to pick up those white, Republican areas.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
It's an issue of overall population as well
Not very many people live in the Alabama Black Belt, and a second AA majority district is going to have to dip into Mobile just to get enough people.

For example, I was just playing around with the app, and in central city Mobile, you can come up with 105,000 voters in a compact set of precincts, 83% of them black.  That's more than the total population of Greene, Sumter, Marengo, Chocktaw, Clark, and Wilcox Counties together.

[ Parent ]
I really really really like this.
I think it's very very well done, and for a VRA map in the South is pretty damn compact!
With this map
Alabama will never elect a white Democrat to Congress again.
We're pretty damn close to that already.
The lone white Alabama Democrat in Congress is in a precarious situation and not really a Democrat.  I'll take two black Democrats over splitting the black vote between several districts that at best will elect faux-Democrats and are just as likely (if not more likely) to vote Republican anyways.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
It's a bigger benefit to us legislatively
politically, electorally, and it does make our party look more minority friendly by adding another Congresscritter to our ranks.  Id still rather make a district Bright can win a bit though and just force him to vote a bit more like a liberal.  But at what point do you add enough blacks to make it a likely D seat and not make it extremely likely as well that an AA will win the primary.  They dont seem to go hand-in-hand, especially not for Bright's voting record.  He'd have very little time to reposition himself.
[ Parent ]
Haha
More minority friendly?

I'd say we're very minority friendly.

Bright voting "more like a liberal"?

Haha, right. You also make the false assumption that blacks in the new district will be liberals. Those black voters are likely staunch social conservatives.

[ Parent ]
So what is (are?) the lesson(s) of AR-Sen runoff
w/r/t African American voters?

Seems to me that in general, they voted for the more conservative Democrat.

What are the consequences of this apparent split between activist Ds and African Americans?

[ Parent ]
That's Probably The Future
..at least the forseeable future.

At least until the racial polarization in Alabama lets up a bit the way it has in Virginia, North Carolina, and, to some extent Georgia.

Not that I think we need to encourage such a thing; it's what the Delaymander in Texas was trying to accomplish in one fell swoop. It didn't quite work there because Austin is liberal, Chet Edwards is a survivor, and because non-Hispanics can often survive in majority-Hispanic districts.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
great job ...
I like it a lot
This map makes sense for all sides
The only way something like it won't be enacted is if Bright loses in 2010. In that case the new incumbent Rethug will be protected.
I'm not sure if Bright would want this plan if he wins
I'm sure he wouldn't mind some additional Democratic voters in the district, but majority black?  He'd need to change his voting record awfully quickly or open himself up to a serious primary challenge.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
He probably wouldn't want it.
The thing is, he doesn't draw the map.  Present in possible all of the scenarios I mentioned in the diary is the influence/effect of the state's black legislators.  I would imagine there would be some push by them to add another majority black district, both out of the perceived need for more black representation and, at least for some, out of their own political ambition.  I looked through the member lists for the two houses of the state legislature.

Blacks make up a significant portion of the Democratic caucuses, especially in the House.  So, I would expect at least some push if the Democrats get the trifecta.  I could also see at least some join with the Republicans to get another majority-black district.  This has happened in Georgia, IIRC.

Plus, Bright is powerless if the courts or the Justice Department demand another majority-minority district.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I'd see that happening only in complete Republican control.
Democratic trifecta: they go after the frosh Republican.

Split control: save Rogers and his seniority at the cost of losing a freshman Republican.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Question on numbers
What's the difference between "Old District" and "Old Demographics"?
Sorry. I should have explained that.
"Old District" refers to the district bearing that number on the map that was/is in place from 2002-2010.  

"Old Demographics" refers to the new district using the 2000 Census demographics, in other words, before "use new population estimates" is selected.  I do that to get a feel for how those areas are trending demographically.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Appreciated. Second question w/r/t race
Are there any areas of White D strength in AL, at least w/r/t statewide/congressional races?

In part, if Rs had control of redistricting, could they go for a 6-1 map? Or would that lead them to be potentially vulnerable in other districts?

Just brainstorming; my first instinct is that your map is the best we can do in AL.  

[ Parent ]
I don't know.
I'd assume the most likely places to look for Democratic strength in Alabama are the places to look anywhere else: the cities, the college towns, and the suburbs.

Mobile County looks to have some white Democratic strength.  It's 31.1% black, but Obama got 45.3% there.  Montgomery County is the same way, but to a lesser extent: 52.9% black, 59.35% Obama.  Ditto Jefferson County (Birmingham): 40.9% black, 52.15% Obama.  Lee County (Auburn): 22.7% black, 39.57% Obama.  Tuscaloosa County: 30.6% black, 41.56% Obama.  Madison County (Huntsville): 23.8% black, 41.93% Obama.

Where that white Democratic strength is, whether it's concentrated or scattered, and whether it's close enough to areas of black votes, I don't know.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Democratic white areas
North Alabama, which is fairly white, is still fairly Democratic on the state/local level due to the legacy of the Tennessee Valley Authority. There are also pockets of Democratic strength in other parts of the state. Here is a map of state senate districts by party that I made back in December (although apparently one of the members has become a Republican since then):
Photobucket
[ Parent ]
Didn't mean to
Use the word fairly twice in the same sentence like that. I usually proof-read my comments for things like that, don't know why I missed that.  
[ Parent ]
Funny thing about English
In English writing it's considered poor style to use the same word repeatedly, which is usually not true in other languages.  I'd guess this is because English has such a huge lexicon, so there is almost always at least three or four ways to say the same thing. In effect, you show off your erudition by demonstrating that you can rotate between synonymous phrases.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
wow that is a lot of blue
Maybe not as much as it looks like if they are large rural districts.  

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
How did you get these pictures up
without using Photobucket? I don't like photobucket if there is any other way to post pictures to diaries I would like to use it.
Good try, but rather theoretical one
Right now i foresee exactly one Southern state, where Democrats will fully control redistricting in 2010-12 - it's Arkansas. And i am not sure that there will be more 10 years from now. So - ....
Well
I think North Carolina will likely retain Democratic control of the state legislature. That will be an important state in terms of these state legislative elections, as the Governor has no veto power and the difference between a Republican map and a Democratic map could be as many of five congressional seats (9D-4R map or 9R-4D map depending on who draws the lines).  
[ Parent ]
I doubt that
Republican year, 5 seat majority in state Senate and 8 - in state House, substantional number of retirements in Republican-leaning districts, no coattails from US Senate race. Really doubt.
[ Parent ]
Probably.
But as I said in the diary, there are several scenarios that could give rise to this map, including divided control.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
If you decided to start reply to my posts a new..
i will mention that under "divided control" Republicans will prefer present districts configuration, where they can easily get 6-1 majority (for example - if Bright will not run) then this one, under which they will never go better then 5-2. And here i would fully agree with them: i hate gerrymandered disrricts so much that if i could - i would legislatively ban them throughout all country. And i would remove redistricting authoruty from legislaturea altogether and transfer it either to courts or independent comissions.
[ Parent ]
I'm not against "gerrymandered" districts
i.e. ugly looking districts, if it means more competitive districts.  I'm against partisan gerrymandering and even more than that pro-incumbent gerrymandering, which allows corrupt ones to stay in office forever.
[ Parent ]
Theoretically i would agree.
but estetically - no))). An ugly looking configurations ("snakes", "tentacles" and so on) always  trouble me)))
[ Parent ]
Not to start a big war over redistricting in general
but there are several great reasons for partisan redistricting.  One main one is that the population and partisan spread may result in needing crappy looking districts to make the end-partisan outcome reflect the population as a whole.

Another is the giant misconception that we need to adhere to county lines .  We should follow lines set-up centuries ago that mean absolutely nothing in terms of population divisions or patterns?  The Independent commission did MN's map so stupidly where the districts are all hybrids of blue suburbs and super red rural and really make no sense, they just follow pretty county lines.

And after playing with redistricting extensively, it is apparent that Democrats need gerrymandered districts to stay afloat in many cases.  NC is a great case, Obama won it 50/50, and yet only 6/13 of the CDs.  If it werent for the heavy gerrymandering in the metro areas, and us winning two districts Obama lost by 5% apiece, we'd probably have a 4/9 GOP delegation resulting instead.

Lots of pros and cons for both approaches.  

[ Parent ]
And still i would easily prefer
a COMPETENT independent comission, which knows how to draw a districts, to hyperpartisan legislatures, mainly concerned with "party balance" and "incumbent protection". In addition - a geography isn't everything, but to draw a district out of pieces, located hundreds miles from each other, only because "they vote alike" is a nonsense for me. When these areas located neaeby - why not?

P.S. And more: i am an Indie, and there is not a single "Independent-leaning" district in country, so i am not so concerned about "party balance" as my more "partisan" friends...))))

[ Parent ]
The most likely scenario
is if the Justice Dept or the courts demand two VRA districts.

Even if the Dems have complete control, it will be with a lot of conservative Dems who would rather have the opportunity for two conservative white Dems rather than one more liberal black Dem.  

It's funny because the Bush Sr admin originally demanded two black VRA seats in Alabama (when the Dems had a 5-2 and almost got to 6-1 in 1990) to give the GOP more seats, but the courts only required one.

[ Parent ]
Nice map.
I've tried my hand at Alabama before, using the principle that a 2-1 Republican controlled process would probably result in a compromise (Bright gets a safer district in exchange for Rogers getting a totally safe district). My problem was the SE corner, easily one of the most conservative parts of the state, which I couldn't figure out how to get out of Bright's district. Drawing the black parts of Mobile into the 2nd and putting SE into the 1st works great, in a headslap "seems pretty obvious to me now" sort of way.

Of course, I'm assuming that Bright survives in 2010, the Republican (I forget his name) gets elected over Sparks, and the AL House stays fairly solidly Democratic.  

I would love to see that happen
Bright can run for the Senate against Sessions in 2014.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
Elegant, but a minor quibble
First off, let me just say as someone who's done my share of Alabama maps that yours is probably cleaner than I ever imagined a 2 VRA-seat map could be. Seriously, it seems...elegant, somehow. Which brings me to my first quibble: this map is not nearly gerrymandered enough!  :)  The VRA basically gives you free rein to gerrymander--heck, it even encourages it!

One problem I did have with your map: do you realize the extent to which you turned the 5th from a marginal district that could elect a white Blue Dog Democrat into one that probably wouldn't? DeKalb & Morgan counties are more reliably Republican all the way down the ticket, while other parts of northern Alabama are much less so. Like, for example, the counties you removed... Colbert & Lauderdale. Griffith won both of them solidly in 2008. He got 14184 votes to Wayne Parker's 10045 in Colbert and got 20068 votes to 17215 in Lauderdale. These counties are 16% and 10% black, respectively, btw, and Obama lost them massively.

Meanwhile, in DeKalb, Obama & our weak-sauce congressional candidate (Nick Sparks) were again losing by massive margins, like 17951-5654 and 16590-6669. The best any Democrat did here was Supreme Court Justice candidate Deborah Bell Paseur, who still lost by about 2,000 votes. Paseur, btw, got eerily similar margins to Griffith throughout the 5th in 2008 (except Lauderdale, Paseur's home county, where she WAY overperformed).

In Morgan County, the way it's currently designed, the voters in the 5th were basically evenly divided, with Griffith winning by about 150 votes out of 26700. The part of the county that's in the 4th, however, saw Republican Aderholt win 17782-4456. And bellweather Deborah Bell Paseur did the best among down-ticketers again, but still lost by over 6,000 votes countywide.

In the current 5th, a Democrat won 52-48 in an open seat, a margin of roughly 9500 votes. Had Griffith run in your 5th, by my back-of-the-envelope calculations, he would've lost by about 5000-6000 votes.  (-7000 for Colbert & Lauderdale, 2000 for DeKalb & 6000 for the rest of Morgan)

And while I know we all hate Parker Griffith (enjoying the Republican Party there, Parker?) .... there doesn't seem to be much of a rationale for moving things around the way you did (Florence-Muscle Shoals is just as "urban" as Fort Payne) However, all this is easily remedied....just shift things back to the way they were, exchanging the relevant parts with the 4th. The population growth in the 5th is right on target to keep it the same size, anyway. ...Wow, that was a long explanation for a minor point. At any rate, the rest of the map is very well done, methinks.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

-
Truthfully, I made this map months ago but only posted it recently after alternating forgetting about it with not feeling like writing the diary, so I don't remember exactly when I was thinking when I made it.  I think my Fifth District reflects my pessimism about this area of the state and the country, so I didn't bother trying to make a Democratic district.  I think it also reflects my view that we probably won't get anyone worth a damn out of it anyways.  Plus, I was hoping to concentrate the military interests into one district.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Redistricting Alabama: Two VRA Districts | 39 comments

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