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June 8th Primary Roundup

by: jeffmd

Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 3:07 PM EDT


A super Tuesday of primaries means a super-sized Primary Roundup the day after!

Arkansas:

  • AR-Sen (D): Blanche Lincoln's 52-48 victory in the runoff over Bill Halter is being spun as a comeback, but she did, y'know, win the primary too, by a similar margin. A series of R2K polls plus the incumbent rule were the main reason most people mentally gave Halter the edge going into the runoff, but in the end, a pretty similar universe of voters showed up the second time, while the D.C. Morrison voters either split evenly or just stayed away. (C)

  • AR-01 (D): Chad Causey, the former CoS to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, eked out a 51-49 runoff victory over former state Sen. Tim Wooldridge in a battle of conservadem vs. very-conservadem. Causey's late endorsement by Bill Clinton may have helped push him over the top. (C)

  • AR-02 (D): In another Dem runoff, liberal African-American state Sen. Joyce Elliott won a 54-46 victory over state House speaker Robbie Wills. They went hard negative on each other, meaning a lot of damage control before facing well-financed GOPer Tim Griffin in November. (C)

  • AR-03 (R): In the dark-red 3rd, Rogers mayor Steve Womack won the GOP runoff against state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, 52-48; Womack is almost certain to win in November. Bledsoe was the only Sarah Palin endorsee to lose last night (but then, Fiorina and Branstad were gimmees). (C)

California:

  • CA-Gov (R): With only one outlier poll to the contrary, the primary between former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and current Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner wasn't expected to be close. Poizner's attempts to outflank Whitman on the right netted him only a 64-27 defeat; Whitman now goes on to face former Governor and current state Attorney General Jerry Brown. (JMD)

  • CA-Sen (R): Yesterday wasn't a dream for Carly Fiorina, who romped to a victory with 56% of the vote over former San Jose congressman Tom Campbell and Orange County Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. CarlyFornia gets to take on three-term incumbent Barbara Boxer. (JMD)

  • CA-Lt. Gov (D): In just one of yesterday's showings of the Northern California dominance of the California Democratic Party, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom beat LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn 55-32, winning all but six counties. (JMD)

  • CA-Lt. Gov (R): Incumbent Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado, appointed to replace now-Rep. John Garamendi, beat back a conservative challenge from term-limited State Senator Sam Aanestad by a 43-31 margin. Aanestad won the counties in his district and the OC, but not much else. (JMD)

  • CA-Att. Gen (D): In this seven-way primary for the Dem nod to replace Jerry Brown who's running for governor, San Francisco DA Kamala Harris withstood an aerial assault from Facebook Chief "Privacy" Officer Chris Kelly. Harris ended up more than doubling Harris' vote totals, 33-16. Behind them were East Bay Assemblyman Alberto Torrico at 15%, LA County Assemblyman Ted Lieu, Santa Barbara Assemblyman Pedro Nava, and LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo at 10 apiece. All three Assemblyman were term-limited - better luck next time at musical chairs, guys. (JMD)

  • CA-Att. Gen (R): Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley, the lone moderate in the field of three, scores a convincing 47-34-19 victory over his more conservative opponents, Chapman University Law School dean John Eastman and Orange County Assemblyman Tom Harman. This sets up yet another NorCal-SoCal matchup for AG in November, LA County DA Steve Cooley against San Francisco (City and County) DA Kamala Harris. (JMD)

  • CA-Sec. of State (R): O, RLY? No, not really. Some insiders were worried that Birther Queen Orly Taitz would inexplicably earn the GOP nod for Secretary of State, but she ended up getting thoroughly pasted by ex-NFLer Damon Dunn 74-26. While Dunn's busy facing off against incumbent Dem SoS Debra Bowen, Orly can go back to getting thoroughly pasted (and fined) in court for filing frivolous suits. (JMD)

  • CA-Init: The good news: Props 16 and 17 -- pet projects for the private utilities and insurance companies, respectively -- have both failed, both losing 52-48 after leading much of the night. The bad news (well, as far as most blogosphere chatter goes; as a Washingtonian with first-hand experience with the 'top two' system, my own feelings are a firm 'meh'): Prop 14 passed 54-46, meaning California switches to a 'top two' primary system. (C)

  • CA-02 (R): Longtime Republican incumbent Wally Herger survived an attempted teabagging from retired Air Force Col. Pete Siglich by a 65-35 spread. Siglich criticized Herger for his TARP bailout vote, earmarks, and, going all the way back to 2003, his support for Medicare Part D, but only spent $45,000 on the race. (JL)

  • CA-11 (R): Attorney David Harmer, who carpetbagged across the border from the 10th after establishing his GOP bona fides in the special election there, captured the GOP nomination with a middling 36%. The publicity Brad Goehring got over his lib'rul huntin' remarks seemed to catapult him into 2nd place, ahead of the other two more normal candidates, Tony Amador and Elizabeth Emken. (C)

  • CA-19 (R): As in the 11th, the establishment GOPer (here, state Sen. Jeff Denham) was the victor with 36% against a fractured field. Denham, who got the backing of retiring Rep. George Radanovich, beat former Fresno mayor (and Club for Growth guy) Jim Patterson and slimy former CA-11 Rep. Richard Pombo. (C)

  • CA-33 (D): Former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, who's LA-based 47th AD overlaps quite a bit with CD-33, beat out some minor opposition with 85% of the vote to win the Democratic nomination to succeed outgoing Dem. Diane Watson. Bass faces minor GOP opposition in November and will almost certainly be the next Congresswoman from this D+35 district. (JMD)

  • CA-36 (D): Marcy Winograd's second challenge to Jane Harman was better organized than her first run in 2006, and Jane Harman's had her share of scandal since then, but the needle barely moved. Harman scored 58.8%, down from 62.5% in 2006, but Harman never looked like she was in any real danger last night. (JMD)

  • CA-37 (D): In another case of an incumbent under 70%, scandal-ridden Laura Richardson scored a suprisingly weak 68% against three miscellaneous Democratic opponents in this Long Beach based district. (JMD)

  • CA-42 (R): Who (other than Swing State Project, of course) would've guessed that out of all the dozens of incumbent House members up for re-election, the night's second worst performance after Bob Inglis would come from Orange County's Gary Miller? With problems including war record embellishment, ethical clouds, and a pro-TARP vote, Miller beat Phil Liberatore only 49-37. (C)

  • CA-47 (R): Despite the presence of another Vietnamese candidate on the ballot, Garden Grove Assemblyman Van Tran still got a majority of the vote to challenge incumbent Democrat Loretta Sanchez in this majority-Hispanic district that went for Bush in 2004, but also went by 20% for Obama. (JMD)

  • CA-50 (D): If Francine Busby takes another run after this one, she's in serious danger of landing the kiss of death of being called "perennial candidate" in the press. Nevertheless, she won the booby prize of the Democratic nod against GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray over attorney Tracy Emblem with two thirds of the vote. This marks her fourth run for this seat, and her third against Bilbray (counting two races in 2006). It's not quite Sodrel-esque, but it's getting close. (JL)

Georgia:

  • GA-09 (Special): Tom Graves was hit with some late scuttle in this race to succeed retiring GOPer Nathan Deal who resigned to run for Governor. Despite some weakness in Gainesville (Hall County), the former state Rep. beat out fellow Republican former state Senator Lee Hawkins by a 56-44 margin. The House now stands at 255 D, 178 R and 2 vacancies. (JMD)

Iowa:

  • IA-Gov (R): Terry Branstad, to no one's surprise, won the GOP primary for a fifth (!) term as Governor. The only surprise was the tepid margin; he beat social conservative Bob Vander Plaats 50-41 (with 9 for Rod Roberts). Unfortunately for Chet Culver (who may be ruing not trying some Gray Davis-style manipulation in the GOP primary), a weak Branstad win is still a Branstad win. (C)

  • IA-02 (R): Move over Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky and M. Myers Mermel, because Mariannette Miller-Meeks is back in town. The ophthalmologist and 2008 nominee against David Loebsack won the GOP primary surprisingly easily (with 51%), considering she was against NRCC pick Rob Gettemy and two former Senate candidates. (C)

  • IA-03 (R): The NRCC also hit the Fail jackpot in the 3rd, where their pick, former wrestling coach Jim Gibbons, lost decisively to the better-organized state Sen. Brad Zaun (who won with 42% to Gibbons' 28%) in a race that had been expected to go to convention to be decided. desmoinesdem has a good diary up detailing the NRCC's Iowa double-faceplant. (C)

Maine:

  • ME-Gov (D): State Senate president Libby Mitchell seems on track to becoming Maine's first female governor, winning the Democratic primary with 35%; a Bill Clinton endorsement may have helped her stand out from the ho-hum pack. She was followed by former AG Steve Rowe at 23, businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli at 22, and former state Conservation director (and former Avengers star) Patrick McGowan at 20. (C)

  • ME-Gov (R): Waterville mayor Paul LePage, the Republican who'd been most closely associated with local Tea Partiers, won the GOP nomination with 38%. He finished ahead of a gaggle of moderates, including businessman Les Otten at 17, state Sen. Peter Mills at 15, ex-Collins CoS Steve Abbott at 13. Will a race between the very liberal Mitchell and very conservative LePage give a legitimate opening to centrist independent Eliot Cutler in November? (C)

New Jersey:

  • NJ-03 (R): Former Eagles offensive lineman and establishment favorite Jon Runyan dispatched Tabernacle Township Committeeman and insurgent Justin Murphy by a 60-40 margin for the right to take on freshman Dem John Adler in this Burlington County-based R+1 district. (JMD)

  • NJ-06 (R): Back in the egg-on-NRCC's-face department, one of their "on the radar" candidates, Monmouth County GOP Vice Chair Diane Gooch, finds herself 61 votes behind Highlands mayor Anna Little. Winner takes on 11-term Dem Frank Pallone. (JMD)

  • NJ-07 (R): Frosh GOP Rep. Leonard Lance was held to only 56% in his primary against a four-pack of underfunded teabaggers. His closest foe, businessman David Larsen, received 31% of the vote. (JL)

  • NJ-12 (R): NRCC favorite Scott Sipprelle had a surprisingly close call (59-41) against the teabaggish David Corsi for the right to take on Dem Rush Holt in this central Jersey district. (JMD)

Nevada:

  • NV-Gov (R): A pathetic end for a pathetic man: GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons claimed only 27% in his primary against ex-AG Brian Sandoval, who won the nod with 56%. Sandoval will try to take on Rory Reid's lunch money in the fall. (JL)

  • NV-Sen (R): Harry Reid must be doing the Angle Dance tonight, as the Dirty Harry Hand Cannon-packing, crypto-Scientologist, prohibitionist, Club for Growth-backed nutcake Sharron Angle trounced former NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden and ex-SoS candidate Danny Tarkanian by an absurd 40-26-23 spread. Harry Reid, you are one lucky bastard. (JL)

South Carolina:

  • SC-Gov: State Sen. Vincent Sheheen easily claimed the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in South Carolina with 59% of the vote against the briefly-hyped SC School Superintendent Jim Rex (23%). He'll have some time to replenish his reserves by the Republican race goes to a runoff, as state Rep. Nikki Haley weathered her recent controversies in fine form with 49% of the vote to TARP-loving US Rep. Gresham Barrett's 22%. (JL)

  • SC-Sen (D): This is just embarrassing. South Carolina Democrats had been hyping the candidacy of Charleston County councilman and ex-state Rep. Vic Rawl for months, but Rawl ended up losing to Alvin Greene, a 32-year-old unemployed ex-military guy who lives with his dad and somehow found the ten grand necessary to file for office. (And it wasn't even close, either, at 59-41.) Do we have another Scott Lee Cohen on our hands? The morning-after news seems to suggest so, with court records confirming that Greene was charged with showing obscene pictures to a college student. This is now the second cycle in a row where SC Dems have nominated the less-than-ideal choice for Senate. (JL)

  • SC-01: Oy. This is pretty damn embarrassing, too. Perennial candidate Ben Frasier (0 for 19!) upset the mildly touted Robert Burton, a former member of the Board of Commissioners of the State Housing Finance and Development Authority, for the Democratic nomination in this open seat. For the Republicans, we're looking at a run-off between state Rep. Tim Scott (the Club for Growth's choice), who won 31% of the vote, and legacy candidate Paul Thurmond, who placed second with 16%. (JL)

  • SC-03 (R): This was a bit of a surprise. In the race to succeed Gresham Barrett in the House, businessman Richard Cash finished first with 25%, with state Rep. Jeff Duncan also advancing to the run-off with 23%. That's something of an upset, as state Rep. Rex Rice, who placed third at 19%, was seen as a strong bet to make the run-off. (JL)

  • SC-04 (R): Bob Inglis is utterly doomed. The increasingly sane GOP incumbent only won 28% of the vote in his primary against Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy and other teabag also-rans. Gowdy ended the night with 39%, meaning that these two are headed for a run-off, but it's hard to imagine how Inglis can survive this one. (JL)

South Dakota:

  • SD-Gov (R): Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard easily sowed up the Republican gubernatorial nomination with 50% of the vote in a five-person field. He'll face state Senate Minority Leader Scott Scott Heidepriem in November. (JL)

  • SD-AL (R): This was always a hard race to fit into the usual Republican primary template, since all three of the GOP candidates (SoS Chris Nelson, and state Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem) were establishment types, despite some teabaggish behavior (most notably Nelson, who'd been birther-curious). In the end, Noem prevailed, beating Nelson and Curd without a runoff, 42-35-23. Did Noem's advertising make the difference, or did Nelson's birtherism cost him his early frontrunner status? (C)

Virginia:

  • VA-02 (R): Auto dealer Scott Rigell wrapped up the Republican nomination to face Dem Rep. Glenn Nye the Freshman Guy with 40% of the vote. Businessman Ben Loyola placed second with 27%. (JL)

  • VA-05 (R): Despite being absolutely despised by the teabagging base in the district thanks to his vote for the tax hiking Mark Warner budget many moons ago, state Sen. Robert Hurt easily won the GOP nod against Democrat Tom Perriello with 48% of the vote. Hurt will have to look out on his right flank, though, as Danville businessman Jeff Clark has said that he would run as an independent if Hurt wins the nod. (JL)
jeffmd :: June 8th Primary Roundup
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Sorry I missed all the fun
Last night with everyone. As I said in the previous thread there was a good and bad in the results. The best being Fiorina, Angle and Causey the worst being Elliot and Lincoln. Since Boozman was always gonna win anyway I'd give it to the light side narrowly.

I Assume You Define Good According to "Electability"
But after the kind of campaign Wills ran in the Arkansas 2nd, I can't see Elliot's win as anything but good.

[ Parent ]
I can't comment on specifics
But he had a point on electability when you look at her base in Pulaski County and the fact she has no support anywhere else.

[ Parent ]
VA-05
It appears, as noted by someone last night (not looking through all that to find it), that the filing deadline for indies in VA was also yesterday.

I think/hope Clark is running
He has a website: http://www.crashtheirparty.com/

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
ooh, and it has some gems too
For instance, this paragraph:

"As conservatives we take issue when we feel federal or state governments overreach their constitutional authority. We do not appreciate the intrusion into our personal matters seemingly ever eroding our individual liberties. However, we as conservatives often are more than willing to support an overreaching and intrusive federal government when it suits our own social or domestic ideals on any given issue. We must understand that we cannot have it both ways we either stand in support and defense of the constitution or we do not."

The irony being that this is literally right under the section calling for a federal amendment to ban gay marriage.

Run, Jeffrey Clark, run! Tom Perriello will thank you...:)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Apparently, he does not stand in
defense of the constitution.

[ Parent ]
Gotta take issue with the diary's take on AR-Sen runoff expectations......
It wasn't just DK/R2K polling, all the nonpartisan pundits were saying in the lead-up that Halter really was winning per private polling.  Lincoln's people expected her to lose, and Halter and the unions expected him to win.

I pay attention to the Chuck Todds and Marc Ambinders of the world and other similar analysts I trust for such tidbits of information and thought, and in fact they validated the R2K polling as consistent with what insiders saw.

The fact is Lincoln pulled a rabbit out of her hat.  And good for her, I hope only that maybe we can make lemonade out of lemons in the form of learning from her experience what maybe can be translated to the general election for troubled Democrats everywhere.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


I still blame Bill Clinton
Even if he lives in NY now, I think he's still a local boy in AR eyes, who happened to make good. So his word, perhaps more than President Obama's, held sway with enough of the D primary electorate.

[ Parent ]
Yes
I think he swayed a number of Democrats, particularly in AR-2.  That runoff may have made the difference.  Had there not been a runoff in that district, Halter might have won.

[ Parent ]
I prefer to think of it
As giving him credit for being able to work his magic even if it was for a candidate most of us opposed. He is a great surrogate for Dems and I suspect he will get requests for the fall to go visit places where the president cannot. If you think about it they could be a formidable team come the homestretch, Obama can rally the base in blue districts and the Big Dog can do his thing is less hospitable territory.

[ Parent ]
Points well taken
The Big Dog is the best weapon Ds have in most areas where McCain outperformed Kerry. And I think his ability to bring out the African American / Hispanic vote is underrated, in light of President Obama. (And that can help in certain Senate races, e.g. NV, CO, NC, maybe even KY).

But I'm still unhappy about Halter's loss.  


[ Parent ]
Sure
Me too. Just saying there is always a silver lining.

[ Parent ]
Credit?
For union bashing?  But that's old hat for NAFTA Bill.

[ Parent ]
The evidence I saw
Was him talking about Arkansas having an independent voice. The focus was on outside interests (yes, unions are special interests) rather than union bashing.

[ Parent ]
What makes me hopeful
is that can win an upset last night, maybe she can in November, too.  Much less likely, but this is politics.

[ Parent ]
I think she's got a good shot
in Nov.  If anything this fight proved to her state that she is a moderate and independent, which is a much stronger position in AR then if Halter had won.

[ Parent ]
I'll believe it when I see it
She never polled less than a few points behind Halter. Boozman leads by more than twenty.

[ Parent ]
She lost
the rural swing voters though. Blanche Lincoln only won it by crushing Halter in the Little Rock area.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I do think Lincoln will get a poll boost
from this "upset" victory. I'm guessing that she'll pull to within 10 of Boozman. The question is whether that will last.

[ Parent ]
Tracking
polls in the last few days may of helped here. Its possible Lincoln surged in the last few days thanks her airing an ad of Bill Clinton doing some union bashing on her behalf. But seriously, this race completely contradicted what the polls and everyone else was saying for the last few days.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
An 8 point swing in a primary
is not that unusual.  If the MOE is four points, that would put the result (barely) within R2K's MOE.

[ Parent ]
Crazy night in SC
Vic Rawl barely won his home CHARLESTON COUNTY. The SC-1 Democrat was nearly as bad.  These inexcusable situations put a small gray cloud on Sheheen's big win.  The state party simply MUST do better.  Rawl did not even send out EMAILS !!!! NUTS !!!!

Many Haley supporters think Barrett should withdraw, but it looks like he won't, despite RGA's request that he do so. Haley's supporters will show up again, provided they don't rest on their laurels completely. Barrett/McMaster/Bauer not so much, IMO.  

SC-3 is a battle between two teabagger/Club for Growth types.  Cash came out of nowhere.  This has the potential to be a Race To Watch, despite the PVI.  

SC will have at least 3 new congressmen and 4 or 5 is possible.          

It was a VERY bad night for the GOP establishment, top to bottom.


Politically wackiest state in the country

right now, hands down.

SC Democrats have been in bad shape for a long time.  But 2006/08 seems to have set off a bomb in the basement of many of the Southern state GOPs too.  All kinds of floors and ceilings are crumbling and falling onto their regulars; the smart people are ducking out the back door.

In short, the Blue States are not making a whole lot of sense and the Red ones are not making any.


[ Parent ]
Loser of the night - SEIU
I hope these guys will give it a rest now and stop wasting their money.  Seriously let's use that money in the general election where it can do some good, or put it back into the union on organizing new members.

Who did this help?  Lincoln voted FOR the heathlcare bill, and with labor on more issue then Republican running would do.  

If I was her I would vote against every labor bill for the rest of my life.  Not sure how this helps anyone.


It helps by showing people
They won't get an easy ride in future by ignoring the needs of working families. But I think we should move on.

[ Parent ]
"Who did this help?"
Do you think Lincoln would have been forced into a runoff without it?  Democrats looking to stab labor in the back will now have to think twice before dong so.  And labor is not a member of the DNC.

And it's rather ironic that you mention using the money for organizing since organizing remains problematic specifically because of Lincoln's flip-flop on EFCA.


[ Parent ]
It shows every one else that the union isn't afraid of
putting their money whether their mouth is.  It shows that they're not going to support you if you don't support them.

Lincoln won last night, but it was contrary to what everyone expected.  Do you think others will be so lucky?  The unions have to play the game, otherwise they won't have the power to influence legislation.


[ Parent ]
makes no sense
to go all out against some one who is with you 80% of the time only to get some one who is with you 0% of the time.  It seems self defeating to me.  

I mean really how do these unions expect to work Lincoln or any other moderate dem in the future.  What incentive do moderates have in working with unions because unless they are with them 100% of the time, which most vulnerable dems can never be, then it doesn't matter because the unions will turn on you no matter what.


[ Parent ]
I think Lincoln
is a bad example of the "unions are shooting themselves in the foot" argument. as has been pointed out many times before, she was dead long before Halter.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I can buy that argument
For Arcuri, McMahon and Space where it means letting a Republican win. But not in a primary where both are likely to lose anyway but their guy at least has room to grow.

[ Parent ]
Few things:
1)  It's not about 100%.  From what I understand, Lincoln was a huge block to Labor's biggest priority, card check and the overall Employee Free Choice Act.  This isn't someone who bucked labor on minor points, easily overlooked.

2)  As others have noted, Lincoln was dead in the water anyway. In fact, I think they would have upgraded the race by removing the incumbant who had horrible favorables.

3)  You say:  

mean really how do these unions expect to work Lincoln or any other moderate dem in the future.

The same way they do now - carrot and stick.  Support Labor and you get cash and organization.  Oppose them, and you get challenged, or at the very least no support.  A) Carrot and stick is really the only thing that works.  B) It doesn't work if people don't believe the threats.  Well, now they will.


[ Parent ]
Huh?
EFCA was priority 1, 2 and 3 for labor.  And she screwed them on it.  What would you expect them to do, say, great thanks?

[ Parent ]
John Cole Has a Good Post on This
Over at Balloon Juice. This was definitely a race labor should have gotten involved in, and even Lincoln eked out a win, that doesn't negate it having been a good move.

[ Parent ]
"What Did It Help?"
It helped hand a former Democratic seat to he Republican Party, if that's any consolation.  

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
Yes because Lincoln was totally going to win prior to Halter entering


[ Parent ]
True
But instead of having a bruised Lincoln walking up to Boozeman and yelling "I have yet begun to fight!", you have Halter walking up to Boozeman with a dead body going "That should do it."

I wonder how the polls would have been if there wasn't such a nasty primary. Then again, the "what if" game can be dangerous to play, especially in politics.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


[ Parent ]
She was losing big before he got in
It was a huge part of Halter's rationale for entering.

[ Parent ]
Meh. Okay.
I see the point. Still, if I was the head of a group who spent hundreds of thousands of dollars against a candidate who "kinda-almost lost", I don't know if I could spin it in a positive light. If I was the head of the SEIU, I would have said "we got hosed" and moved on.

Them going after McMahon et al. seems to me like they're saying "fine, if you won't listen to us, we just won't talk."  

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


[ Parent ]
How?
Lincoln was doing that all by herself.

[ Parent ]
Neither of them were going to hang onto that seat
We might as well enforce some party discipline

[ Parent ]
What everyone above me said
I'll add that AR is one of the least labor-friendly states in the nation, and yet they managed to keep it very close.  

[ Parent ]
Halter was stronger than Lincoln against Boozman
if you believe the polls.
So if Halter had beat Lincoln then we'd claim the money was well spent.
Every time you spend money on an election it's a risk. You risk losing the election, and therefore wasting your money. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't try.
Lincoln was a worthy target. She killed the public option and she killed EFCA. These actions may have hurt the Democratic brand all across the country. Democrats in other parts of the country may lose their elections because there's no public option and no EFCA.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
CA post-primary rankings
Safe D: Secretary of State, Treasurer
Likely D: US Senate, Controller, Insurance Commissioner
Lean D: Governor
Tossup: Lieutenant Governor
Lean R: Attorney General

As tommypaine remarked in a previous thread, I wish the Dem ticket had more geographic diversity.  All but Bowen are from NorCal, and I worry that Newsom and Harris in particular could be sunk by a mediocre performance in Los Angeles County and heavy losses in the more Republican SoCal counties.


I agree about the need for geographic balance
   but also note that our state's Controller, John Chiang is from Los Angeles. He used to live in the San Fernando Valley but is now in Santa Monica, I believe.

  Boxer is from Marin County (where she represented in the House) but now lives in Riverside County, in the Palm Springs area.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
Chiang slipped my mind
but as for Boxer, I highly doubt even Palm Springers identify her with SoCal.  If we want to buff resumes, Jerry Brown could emphasize that he started his political career in L.A., but one would have to be nearly 50 years old to have firsthand knowledge of that... and of course, older folks in general might have memories of Brown that aren't so positive.

And speaking of Chiang, I should have put him at Safe D.  I don't see any way Strickland can make up 10 points from their first contest in 2006 (the margin of Chiang's victory had also slipped my mind, I thought it was more like 5).


[ Parent ]
SC-01
Kinda awkward in a way. Black candidate vs the grandson of Strom Thurmond.  

at the debate
"Tim, you remind me a lot of my sister."

[ Parent ]
I think it would actually be his aunt


[ Parent ]
Thurmond's daughter
I'm referring to the daughter Strom had with an African American mistress.  Strom took care of her, but he kept her secret.  She didn't publickly acknowledge her parentage until after Strom died.

[ Parent ]
his sister is old enough to be his grandmother


26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Thurmond's SON, not grandson ...
Strom's seed wasn't put to good use until his 70's.  

[ Parent ]
And that was about 50 years ago!


[ Parent ]
Realized that after
I went to his campaign website. When I typed that I thought it was son, but then I was like no way, but then after I remembered Strom not having his known kids till he was much older. Whats up with Republican senators having kids at really old ages? I mean, look at Fred Thompson and Al D'amato. Its sick!  

[ Parent ]
There is old
And then there is Strom Thurmond.

[ Parent ]
Texas Chainsaw Massacre
They were remaking "Texas Chainsaw Massacre" some time before Strom died.  Someone on a newsgroup made me laugh a lot by suggesting that Strom should play the grandfather in that movie.  He wouldn't need any makeup. :-)

[ Parent ]
NJ-06 Fun Fact
Just now learned that Anna Little was running for congress.  Last summer, as mayor of Highlands, she performed the marriage ceremony for my mom and step-dad.  Don't know how much of a chance she stands in the general, but still kinda cool as far as we're concerned.

Male, 23, NJ-12

Little chance in the general
it's D+8, Pallone is entrenched, and she's too conservative for the district. Nevertheless that is still pretty cool :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
SC-SEN
"...with court records confirming that Greene was charged with showing obscene pictures to a college student..."

To quote Adam Sandler, "again, maybe this is information you could have brought to my attention YESTERDAY..."


Pfft...
Who HASN'T been caught showing obscene pictures to a college student. It's actually not that bad...it could have been a high school student...

...I mean......what?

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


[ Parent ]
Yeah, he'll still probable outperform Inez Tennenbaum
The average Scarolinian probably knows more pervs in their parent's basement than Latina Jews.

Was that my outside voice?


[ Parent ]
Jerry Brown
challenges Whitman to 10 town hall debates. Bet you that she'll some up with some BS excuse when she declines to debate Brown.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


She'll probably drop another 80 mil
to get someone to construct a robot that is a perfect copy of her except programmed to be a great debater.

Moral of the story: in politics, anything is possible with enough money, even compensating for being a terrible candidate.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
A bit off-subject,
but does anyone have an opinion on Rose Institutes's redistricting write-ups?

LA and FL are the only ones out so far:
http://rosereport.org/20091124...
http://rosereport.org/20100222...

They're both pretty old, but will there be any more?


Bill's Still Got the Juice
Man, looking at how close these races ended up being, Bill Clinton probably saved Lincoln's bacon and pushed Causey over the top. But hey, as long as Clinton campaigns for Elliott in the general as hard as he did for the others in the primary, I am totally fine knowing that Bubba can still make some magic happen.

But seriously, the worst thing that could happen now is abandoning Elliott as unelectable. Yeah, she may be an underdog, but she's not totally unelectable. And she could potentially juice turnout (esp. black turnout) in Little Rock, which would boost Dems statewide and help keep Republicans shut out of statewide offices.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


Correlation Doesn't Equal Causation
The president was backing the candidates already backed by the AR political establishment. His enthusiasm for them was completely predictable. And in races that tight you can argue that anything was the "magic" behind the win.

I agree with you completely about Elliott though. First, she can win. Secondly, the optics of abandoning a competitive black female in a high-profile race, especially one running against a nasty spawn of Rove, that'd look stunningly awful.


[ Parent ]
Absolutely
She should get total and absolute support. But realistically I don't see her pulling it out.

[ Parent ]
sigh
after comparing CA-SOS (R) results and SC-SEN (D) results, I may regret saying this, but I wish South Carolina Democrats and California Republicans could trade logic/reasoning skills. Wouldn't life be great if we had Vic Rawl and Orly Taitz instead of Alvin Greene and Damon Dunn?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Say goodbye to Research 2000 and Kos
Markos dumped the pollster today and will not release polls for the next several months.

Thanks
ref http://www.dailykos.com/story/...
I have decided to part ways with our current pollster, and will be looking for a new polling partner to finish out this election cycle. The decision was made, in part, on the results of Nate Silver's new pollster rankings.

Apparently there were some detailed e-mails from Nate to Kos on R2K.


[ Parent ]
Nate Silver is Coming Under Fire for his lack
of transparency.  Looks like there is some pushback from the pollsters.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...


[ Parent ]
I see what they are saying
But I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt. He was very transparent about methodology which to me is most important.

[ Parent ]
I think they have a fair case
No one else was out there publicly polling the Ar-Sen runoff, and their result was within the margin of error, especially if you consider that Halter probably got screwed out of a few thousand votes in Garland County.

[ Parent ]
Garland
Wouldn't have made a difference to the result from what I understand. Plus Kos was clear that the decision had as much to do with Nate as it did Arkansas.

[ Parent ]
SC-sen
Low profile races can be a big disappointment, just because voters don't pay attention then feel that they should vote anyway.  In 2008, the incumbent Middlesex County (MA) Register of Probate was caught on videotape stealing money from copy machines, yet he was still renominated, easily.  Fortunately he declined the nomination and the dems were able to pick a new candidate by convention, but it just goes to show how little attention voters pay.  (In the voters defense, the crook, John Buonomo, was the only guy on the ballot, but several people were launching write-in campaigns and no one got even close.)

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

Looks like last night was underwhelming incumbent and surprising challenger night.
With the exception of AR-Sen.

I'm sorry, I looked at the results as they were coming in, once.

I should have slept through and forgotten the entire event.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


my sister volunteered for Marjorie M-M
way back in 1992.

Nevada Senate: Fun With Scientology, Conservative Style, #1.
Sharron Angle, while a state lawmaker, was a big booster for Narconon, a Scientology front group.  Like all things concocted by Scientology founder L. Ron Hubbard it was from the beginning steeped in scandal and controversy.  That is what makes looking at Scientology so much fun.  All you have to do is turn over any Hubbard rock and you find nasty looking creatures scurrying away underneath.
Narconon is heavily based on 1950's vitamin research, such as Hubbard understood it, along with traditional remedies like saunas and heat to sweat out impurities.  Huge doses, beyond what is now considered safe,  of vitamins, especially Niacin, B3, are used.  Naturally the wrongful death suits have followed apace.  The underpinnings of Narconon are pure  junk science of course and interestingly enough, can never be updated because in Scientology there is no mechanism for change,  alterations or improvements to anything the Great Genius L. Ron Hubbard wrote.  This means that they can never take advantage of new scientific discoveries, or clinical studies.  They are frozen in time forever, unable to avail themselves of the fruits of new knowledge or thought.  Yep, what Hubbard said back in the days of yore are written in stone for these people.
Yet Hubbard was no scientist and was hardly qualified to do any work whatsoever on drug addiction.  His grades in science in both high school and college were uniformly low.  He was never one to be held back by requirements though.  He did get an advanced degree, too bad it was from Sequoia University which was a diploma mill run by a Los Angles chiropractor.  His sense of adventure apparently got the better of him when he wrote the book, All About Radiation in 1957.  Too bad his compass failed him in these dark, uncharted waters for this important tome reaped much ridicule and laughter as he clearly demonstrated his lack of knowledge on the subject.  Yet last time I looked the book is still available from Scientology sources.  
I am not sure what the above facts mean in the Nevada election.  The followers of Sharron Angle have a real "anti-egghead" bias.  I suspect that other scientific theories such as global warming and evolution get short-shrift among her adherents.  
Independents might want to know why anyone would want to become entangled with Scientology and Narconon.  After all, isn't a candidate's judgment a central part of any election?  So what was she thinking when she repeatedly went to bat for Narconon?  Didn't she care?  How could she not know?  What additional damage could Scientology and Narconon do to society if they had the backing of a US Senator?? Rollo Weems.



Rollo "Rob" Weems


SC-ST

Well, after need more time than habitually for can look to all results, I think is interesting remember the second republican incumbent what lose the seat yesterday (after J Gibbons).

The appointed state treasurer of South Carolina lost yesterday the primaries. Converse Chellis (R) will lose his office. The next state treasurer will be republican because they are not democrats in this race.



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