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SSP Daily Digest: 6/8 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 3:20 PM EDT


CO-Sen, PA-Sen: Need some quantification that people just don't care about the job-offer so-called-stories in the Colorado and Pennsylvania races? It comes from Rasmussen, of all places, perhaps the pollster you'd think would have the greatest vested interest in finding that people do care. 44% of those sampled say this is business as usual for politicians, with only 19% saying it's unusual. And 32% say it's an issue that will be "very important" in their decisions in November (and what do you want to bet most of that 32% wouldn't think it was important if it was a Republican offering a job to a Republican?), Scott Rasmussen points out that's quite low compared with other issues in importance.

DE-Sen: It's been confirmed: Joe Biden will be heading back to Delaware to stump on behalf of Chris Coons. Biden will appear at a June 28 fundraiser in Wilmington.

NC-Sen (pdf): PPP is out with another look at the North Carolina Senate race, where the Democratic field has yet to be settled via runoff. Today's results focus only on the general election, though, where Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham both lost a little ground against Richard Burr as the bump wore off in the middle of the lull between the primary and the runoff. Burr is still at an unenviable approval of 35/37, but he leads Marshall 46-39 (up from a 1-point margin in the poll immediately post-primary) and leads Cunningham 46-35.

AL-Gov: The final count of all ballots in the too-close to call Republican gubernatorial primary is scheduled to be released today. The issue isn't who won, but who made second place and makes it into the runoff. Businessman and gubernatorial progeny Tim James, who was in third on election night by 205 votes, says he'll seek a recount regardless of what happens with the final count of provisional ballots, so it'll be a while before we know whether he or Robert Bentley faces Bradley Byrne in the runoff.

MI-Gov: One more big union endorsement for Virg Bernero in the Michigan Democratic primary; the Lansing mayor got the nod from the state AFSCME (not surprising, considering that public employee unions have little use for his rival, Andy Dillon).

MN-Gov: The good news: there's a new poll out showing all three potential DFL nominees handily beating GOP nominee Tom Emmer in the Minnesota gubernatorial race, contrary to the recent SurveyUSA (where Emmer was winning) and Minnesota Public Radio (super-close) polls. The bad news: it's a pollster I've never heard of, and I can't tell at whose behest they took the poll, so I don't know how much weight to give this one. At any rate, Decision Resources Ltd. finds that Mark Dayton leads Emmer and Independence Party nominee Tom Horner 40-28-18. Margaret Anderson Kelliher leads 38-28-17, while Matt Entenza leads 34-27-19.

MS-Gov: Hey, I know we haven't even gotten through the current election, but it's only a year and a half till Mississippi's off-year gubernatorial election. The mayor of Hattiesburg, Johnny Dupree, will seek the Democratic nomination. If he won, he'd be Mississippi's first African-American governor. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

TX-Gov: It turns out that it was too early to conclude (as the media did yesterday) that the Greens were actually going to get a ballot line in Texas this year, which could make a difference in a close gubernatorial race. An Arizona political consulting group collected the 92,000 signatures and, for campaign finance purposes, delivered them as "a gift" to the Greens. But while an individual could do that, a corporation can't, according to an election law expert.

VT-Gov: One other state where organized labor is starting to weigh in to the Democratic primary is Vermont, where the state AFL-CIO and the Vermont Education Association both have decided to back former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine. The good news here may be that the AFL-CIO isn't backing Anthony Pollina like they did last time, splitting the liberal vote (although there's no indication yet that Pollina will be running this time).

FL-24: One day after snagging Mike Huckabee's endorsement, Karen Diebel got the boom lowered on her by RedState (who don't have a candidate they're backing, but suddenly seem spooked about her electability issues). They reiterated the (already a known piece of oppo research that's been floating around for the last year, although perhaps not known to all readers here) story about Diebel's 911 call in 2007 where police were called to her house over reports of a dead snake in her pool and she subsequently told police she was afraid she was being monitored through her phone and computer.

NJ-04: With the exception of his hard-core anti-abortion stances, Chris Smith has usually been one of the most moderate House Republicans, so it's strange to see him enlisting the help of bomb-thrower Michele Bachmann in a re-election bid (in the form of robocalls). In fact, it's strange to see him sweating a re-election bid period, but facing a teabagger primary challenge from Alan Bateman in today's climate, he's not taking any chances.

WA-08: It's also see strange to see the Seattle Times going after their pet Congresscritter, Dave Reichert. But they also lambasted him in a weekend editorial for his cynicism, after he was caught on tape telling a Republican audience how he takes the occasional pro-environmental vote in order to throw a few bones to moderate or liberal voters in order to make himself safer in his Dem-leaning swing district. I suppose his brief moment of transparency upset their Broderite inner compasses and trumped even their need to keep him in office.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/8 (Afternoon Edition)
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Fl-24
So, I guess this means Diebel loses the primary? Huckabee makes some crappy endorsement. Let's see, tonight alone, atleast 3 of his backed candidates are going to lose, 1 of those will come in last place, possibly 2. Vander Plaats, DeVore, and Bauer. What other losers has he endorsed, and any winners?
BTW, thanks for the h/t!

Alan Boyd now supports health care

Boyd is a blue dog from Florida. Does this have anyhting to do with reelection?


But I take it he didnt vote for it?


[ Parent ]
No actually he did
Which is why he probably won't be re-elected, seeing as how this district is R+6 and is zooming away from us at the national level.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
He's a pretty entrenched incumbant.
I don't know if I'd write him off so quickly.

[ Parent ]
Biden
Castle will win, but I think Biden is trying to prevent any attacks on his effort to help Coons.

I have friends in the New Castle county police department and they hate Coons for various reasons, so I do not think Coons is such an optimal pick. The only reason why Coons won the elections for New Castle County executive was that he was a generic D facing a state Republican party that has not recruited a strong candidate for anything since Mike Castle (except maybe Ferris Wharton in 2006 for Attorney General).  


I think he'll do surprisingly well
I don't want to predict that he'll win yet. After Beau decided not to run, Coons was really about the best we could hope for unless John Carney had decided to switch races.

Castle's definitely in the driver's seat right now, but I think Coons is a serious enough candidate to make the national GOP sweat before all's said and done.  


[ Parent ]
Has Castle even done much campaigning yet?
I'm hoping his campaign skills are so rust-encoated he'll pull a Martha Coakley to some degree.
He was a much younger man back the last time he faced a campaign challenge...

[ Parent ]
I wonder what Castle could do
Campaign wise, that is.  He is certainly well known, and accepted by voters.  Is there anything people don't know about him already?  

I'm not sure if anyone loves him though, or if he's just acceptable.  And I'm not sure Coons can become beloved himself.  I do think Coons could win a ground game with Castle, I just don't know if that would be enough to put him over the top.

Coons will need to run a very good campaign, and maybe Castle missteps.  

What does everyone think would be the outcome if both run similarly good campaigns with no major falters?  I'm guessing Castle by mid-single digits.


[ Parent ]
If both run the best races of their lives
Castle wins by 12 or barely loses I think

[ Parent ]
I think he'll do surprisingly well
I don't want to predict that he'll win yet. After Beau decided not to run, Coons was really about the best we could hope for unless John Carney had decided to switch races.

Castle's definitely in the driver's seat right now, but I think Coons is a serious enough candidate to make the national GOP sweat before all's said and done.  


[ Parent ]
NJ-04
Smith represents the reddest district (R+6) of any Republican who voted for cap-and-trade, so he'd be theoretically vulnerable to a challenge from the right.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

In central and south jersey
Environmentalism is pretty strong due to the fact that the jersey shoreline quite literally drives the local economy during the warmer times of the year.  If memory serves, Frank Lobiondo of NJ-2 voted for Cap-N-Trade too.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Yep, he did
And so did the third central/south NJ Republican, Leonard Lance, meaning that almost half of the GOP yeas came from that area alone.

For the record, Kirk, Castle, Reichart, Bono Mack, and the now departed McHugh were the others.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Recount in AL
It's going to be a wild ride in AL.  The Secretary of State has sent out a letter stating that the law doesn't provide for recounts in primary elections, only in general elections.  If you remember the mess from 2002 when Bob Riley barely beat Don Siegelman, it was against the law to open the ballot boxes once they had been counted to do any sort of recount.  When they changed the law, they either didn't think about runoff situations or didn't care, but apparently they didn't change the recount law for primary elections.  I think it's because the parties themselves run the primaries in AL, and not the state government.  It's going to be interesting to see how that plays out.  

Re: Recount
Okay, I misread what the Secretary of State said.  It said that the state government wouldn't have to pay the costs for the recount.  The candidate can spend up between $300,000 and $600,000 to force a recount, but it has to come out of their own pocket.  I can see that happening.  

[ Parent ]
Thats the way it should be
No reason for the government to pay when a candidate refuses to see he has lost.  

[ Parent ]
As the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota showed,
recounts can change vote totals. Certainly if the final percentage is within some tiny margin of another candidate that determines the final result, a recount should be held. This should certainly be the case for general elections anyway.

[ Parent ]
VT-Gov
Enh, the thing is that in a state like Vermont that has a tiny population with minimal union membership, who the labor unions back has never really made much of a difference. The only union that has any political clout at all in Vermont is the teachers' union, and even they struggle sometimes. The AFL-CIO can endorse whoever they want, but in Vermont, it's a completely meaningless distinction - probably the only state where that's the case.  

In a five way Democratic primary, they can make a big difference
The AFL-CIO in VT represents about 10,000 workers.

The NEA represents about 12,000.

The total turnout for the Democratic gubernatorial primary is likely to be less than 100,000.

While unions may not hold huge sway over Vermont politics overall, in a multi-candidate Democratic primary, they can be a potent force.

Not simply because of the numbers of their members and their families, but because they can help provide volunteers, organization and infrastructure to a campaign.

In the past, the Vermont NEA has avoided primary endorsements in the past -- but the fact that this year they are breaking that tradition to endorse Racine has potential to significant.

With Racine nailing down these endorsements (as well as a pretty good cross-section of state legislators, party activists, and issue group leaders) he will have the strongest ground game of any of the Democratic candidates. The big question will probably be if Deb Markowitz will have a large enough financial advantage to run enough of a media game to win.  


[ Parent ]
But as we've learned in recent years
AFL-CIO and many other unions do not necessarily guarantee their workers votes, especially in rural areas and heavy blue collar and/or white populations.  The unions were pretty hard on Bush esp in 2004 but he still won areas with a lot of union voters due to other issues.

[ Parent ]
Agreed, but union activists in a low turnout Democratic primary
can make a big difference.

And despite their small size in Vermont, the unions definitely have a political impact. People were surprised when they endorsed the Progressive Party candidate for Governor in 08 -- and while Republican Douglas won easily, Progressive Pollina surprised everyone by placing second over the Democrat (who ran a crappy campaign). There is no question that the unions played a role in making that happen.



[ Parent ]
CA-Sen exit poll
Chuck DeVore supporters are so stupid its not funny. They are screaming about an exit poll showing him with 75%, Fiorina with 25% and Campbell with 0%.  

Hmm....
I'm seeing it more like this
Dale Peterson 76%
Chuck DeVore 75% (Dummy)
Carly Fiorina 25% (Thug)
Tom Campbell 0% (Criminal)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Yeah, who would want to be in a political party with those idiots?
GOPVOTER, you're too smart to be a Republican.

You should join us. We have cookies.

/joke

I can say this about CA-36: Marcy Winograd is on top of her turnout game. I got recorded calls from Ms. Marcy yesterday, today and a text message an hour ago, reminding me to vote.

I would also guess that she must have used Pacific Research for her polling. I got an automated poll from them like three weeks ago focused on CA-36, and indicated I was a strong Winograd supporter and HATED Jane Harman. Which is true.

Since then, I've been getting a recorded message from Marcy like every three days. Too bad I officially moved out of her district two weeks ago. Oops.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
CA-36 If Harman felt even the smallest bit in danger of losing
she could write to her campaign any size check that would be needed.
She is either the 1st or 2nd wealthy person in the House (I can't find my link to that list at the moment).

[ Parent ]
2nd I think
But only becuas ethey count Theresa Heinz Kerry's wealth in with John Kerry's.

http://www.rollcall.com/featur...


[ Parent ]
VT-GOV - Pollina isn't running
Just to clarify any question you have on the matter, Anthony Pollina isn't running for Governor of Vermont, and the Progressives aren't planning on competing for the position.

He announced today that he is running for one of the three State Senate seats in the Washington County district.

http://www.wcax.com/Global/sto...

As an even better piece of news, he is going to try to win the Democratic nomination for that seat and run as a "fusion" Democratic/Progressive candidate for the seat.

(This is a growing tendency in the state, where State Senator Tim Ashe, a former Burlington Progressive City Council member was elected last time using the same approach, and where Doug Hoffer is seeking both the Democratic and Progressive nominations for State Auditor, to challenge Democrat turned Republican erratic incumbent Tom Salmon. There are some ballot law challenges to doing it this way -- under Vermont law a candidate can only file in one primary, but if they win another party nomination as a write-in, they can be listed in November as the nominee of both parties.)

As for the Progressives plans for the gubernatorial race, state Progressive Party Chair Martha Abbott is running in the primary for the party nomination - but she told the AFL-CIO this weekend that she is only doing it to prevent anyone else from taking the nomination, and that she intends to withdraw after the primary to "prevent Brian Dubie from getting elected."

So it looks like whoever wins the Democratic nomination won't have a Progressive candidate in the race to worry about splitting the vote with (although there are still plenty of minor party and independent candidates running - always good for some entertainment here in the Green Mountains.)


Great news
Democrats need to win the Vermont governorship. Republicans have held that seat for too long. I have Deb on my list of "Endorsements" mostly because I think she's the best general election candidate.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
Burr
Its kind of sad that it looks like the streak of that seat switching parties will end with a Burr re-election.  He is eminently beatable in most any climate (and still may be) but I really like the idea of a consistently competitive Senate seat each and every cycle.  Its such a rarity.


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