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IA-Gov, IA-Sen: Branstad Looks Good; Grassley Leads Conlin by Varying Margins

by: James L.

Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 3:04 AM EDT


Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register (6/1-3, likely voters, no trend lines):

Terry Branstad (R): 57
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 29
Rod Roberts (R): 8
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (5/31-6/2, likely voters):

Terry Branstad (R): 44
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 29
Rod Roberts (R): 12
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Public Policy Polling (5/25-27, likely voters):

Terry Branstad (R): 46
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 31
Rod Roberts (R): 13
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rounding up the wave of Iowa polls that have been released over the past week, it doesn't look like former Gov. Terry Branstad has anything to worry about today. How about the general election? The results are pure yuck for Chet Culver.

R2K:

Chet Culver (D-inc): 42
Terry Branstad (R): 51

Chet Culver (D-inc): 43
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 42

Chet Culver (D-inc): 45
Rod Roberts (R): 35
(MoE: ±4%)

PPP:

Chet Culver (D-inc): 37
Terry Branstad (R): 52

Chet Culver (D-inc): 38
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 43

Chet Culver (D-inc): 38
Rod Roberts (R): 40
(MoE: ±2.7%)

The Senate race:

R2K:

Roxanne Conlin (D): 42
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4%)

PPP:

Roxanne Conlin (D): 31
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 57

Tom Fiegen (D): 28
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 56

Bob Krause (D): 26
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 56
(MoE: ±2.7%)

Pick your poison.

James L. :: IA-Gov, IA-Sen: Branstad Looks Good; Grassley Leads Conlin by Varying Margins
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I don't follow Iowa Politics often
But what did Culver do to be polling as an incumbent at 42%?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

long story
I hit some of the highlights here. He hasn't been visible enough around the state, he hasn't delivered much for key constituencies (especially organized labor), he's not seen as going to the mat to fight for some big priorities for the Democratic base.

Meanwhile, the economy has been crappy. Unemployment in Iowa is low by national standards, but people here perceive it as very high.


[ Parent ]
Sadly
I don't trust R2K, they've been terrible so far this cycle, missing badly on most of the general election contests after the 2008 election cycle.  PPP has been much better for the most part although they biffed on PA-12.  

Really, I think the truth might be somewhere between the two.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


PPP has been horrible on the CD level, but good otherwise
They did very well with NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, ME-Init, MA-Sen, and the primaries so far. On the flip side, they missed PA-12 by a big margin and NY-23 by an embarrassingly large one (admittedly, under strange circumstances.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]

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