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SC-Gov, SC-04: Haley Crushing, Inglis Slumping

by: James L.

Sun Jun 06, 2010 at 10:29 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (6/5-6, likely voters, 5/22-23 in parens):

Nikki Haley (R): 43 (39)
Henry McMaster (R): 16 (18)
Gresham Barrett (R): 23 (16)
Andre Bauer (R): 12 (13)
Undecided: 7 (14)
(MoE: ±3.1%)

Runoffs:

Nikki Haley (R): 51
Gresham Barrett (R): 35
Undecided: 14

Nikki Haley (R): 62
Andre Bauer (R): 26
Undecided: 12

Nikki Haley (R): 54
Henry McMaster (R): 35
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3.1%)

It looks like Haley's standing has not been impaired by the allegations of extramarital infidelity that have dominated the headlines this week. Her favorable rating among Republican primary voters sits at 58-23, an improvement over the 42-13 rating she had in late May. Moreover, by a 54-13 margin, Republicans don't believe the allegations are true, and are split almost evenly on whether she should drop out of the race if the allegations are proven true.

We should also give thanks to PPP for taking a look at the 4th CD primary, where conservative GOP incumbent Bob Inglis is being teabagged to death:

Bob Inglis (R-inc): 33
Trey Gowdy (R): 37
Jim Lee (R): 9
David Thomas (R): 9
Christina Jeffrey (R): 5
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±5.7%)

Despite a thoroughly conservative voting record, Inglis has committed a long list of verbal apostasies against the Glenn Beck wing of the Republican Party, and it seems that his occasionally moderate-sounding style is costing him big time among his party's base. I think it's worth revisiting one of the most astute pieces of analysis I've ever read on SSP, from a post by DavidNYC predicting Parker Griffith's demise back in December:

It's important to remember that to remain a member in good standing of the conservative movement, it isn't enough just to vote a certain way. You have to evidence a very particular tribal belonging - you need to hate the right people, be ignorant of the right facts, be fearful of the right bogeymen, and be arrogant about the whole enterprise. If you somehow fail this tribal litmus test, it doesn't matter how right-wing you are - that's how, for example, a wildly conservative guy like former Rep. Chris Cannon could lose a primary to another wildly conservative maniac.
James L. :: SC-Gov, SC-04: Haley Crushing, Inglis Slumping
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Inglis reminds me of the Snoop Dogg song
where he says "Dont ever let me slip, because if I slip, Ill be slippin".

This might be good short term politics
for the GOP in a year when their base is all riled up. But shunning thoughtful conservatives (Bennett, Inglis) who every once in a while work across party lines to get something done and be effective legislators in favor of someone who is just as conservative but has that extra crazy factor isn't sustainable. You can have a few Bachmanns and Joe Wilsons but when more and more members of the party are following that mold, the general electorate won't allow it for long.

Correct
It's why I worry about 2010 and not 2012 for the most part.  In fact, I feel like the GOP winning both chambers would be the worse thing they could for any long-term success for their party.

[ Parent ]
Poor
Inglis. He's a rare breed this day, people who are willing to work across party lines for the benefit of this country. Both parties have been missing that for a while....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

There is no such thing as working across party lines anymore
Republicans have refused to do it for the past couple of years with Democrats in charge.  I only hope that Democrats will return the favor when Republicans are back in charge.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe I'm still too optimistic
But I still want to see either party work with each other -- AS LONG AS YOU DON'T LET THEM STEAMROLL YOU!!!  And while the fall elections are going to be tough, I still don't think the GOP will take back Congress -- and I REALLY don't think there is anyone that can survive a Republican presidential primary than can take on President Obama.

[ Parent ]
I really dont care about 2012 right now
2010 is where the action is.  Obama is his own man and can take care of himself easily in 2012.  He can raise $100 million dollars at the flip of a switch.  I am worried about 2010, not 2012 and so should everyone else.  

[ Parent ]
This comment isnt meant solely for you
but I really hate when people say, lets focus on this election and worry about the next one when the time comes.  Many of us have talked the 2010 election to death and need to move onto next cycles to give us something to do.  :)

[ Parent ]
Don't worry about BenOberist
That username is no longer a member of this board.

[ Parent ]
Dear user BenObrist
You've registered today, and do not seem aware of the mission of this site -- cold-blooded election analysis, though with a progressive bent. Nevertheless, conservative members are also welcome here.

Policy analysis, without looking at the implications on specific elections, is generally verboten here. Users who digress into such have frequently been banned. And that practice by the moderators have led to a civil site, something that I hope will continue.  


[ Parent ]
I think this certainly has a connection to elections
2012 and 2010 specifically.  

[ Parent ]
And what would that be?
What are your numbers w/r/t the effect of not working across party lines?

[ Parent ]
ehstronghold kind of started that conversation
Are we not allowed to talk about issues here?  Im new here and if that is a rule, I will abide by it.  

[ Parent ]
We can talk about issues, but ...
... in the context of how they are going to impact politics.  This is a "horserace politics" website.  Of course, there is going to be some gray areas here, but stay on the "elections" side of it.  I remember discussions over health care, Israel, torture, and others, have led some long-time members from being booted.

[ Parent ]
He's not new
Don't feed the troll.

[ Parent ]
I don't think he's a troll
he has had other more relevant and interesting comments. I hope he hasn't been banned.  

[ Parent ]
Trust me
This guy has a long, long record of causing problems here.

[ Parent ]
And that's why we count on you to weed out the crabgrass, James!


[ Parent ]
Alrighty
I trust your familiarity in these matters a lot more.  

[ Parent ]
I wasn't quite sure
after he kept trying to bait one of the regular users...

but wasn't quite sure. He seems more skilled than the average troll. Nevertheless, his user account was created today, and he immediately went through maybe 30 messages in 3 hours, which is at least behavior worth flagging.


[ Parent ]
Of course james
might have recognized the URL, (if he has that ability, I don't know how adminstrator privs work on these sites).  

[ Parent ]
This is the GOP going around the bend
Bob Inglis is a solid conservative -- not moderate, not crazy, but willing to work with others.  Remember he was one of the first members of Congress to face the Teagabbing Town Hall crowd last summer -- and FOR NOTHING!!!  While I hate for members like him to be thrown out of Congress (I'd rather have someone like him to work on policy with -- we're never going to win that district), maybe it's going to take people like him to lose their jobs for the Republican Part to come to their senses.

Inglis, on rare occasions,
says something straightforward and logical, and doesn't hyperventilate into silly partisan screaming very often, especially not at boogeymen, and that is going to be enough to have defeated.

Democrats need to get the Mayor of Spartanburg, Junie White to run; he'd be far to the right of Gene Taylor and Bobby Bright, but he'd actually have a shot from what I understand.  


[ Parent ]
Is Liz Pattison still alive?
She held this seat for a few terms until getting defeated by Inglis.  

[ Parent ]
Liz Patterson is still around, but not an option...
... District is too crazy, and she is getting up in age.  A Greenville businessman would be a better choice.  Very difficult under any circumstances.  Gowdy is not a nut-job, so he should be able to hold the seat for as long as he wants.

Inglis, you are a true statesman.  Please keep the faith. History will prove you right.  


[ Parent ]
There's someone far to the right of Bobby Bright
who's a Democratic Mayor? He has a 72 score (out of 100) from the American Conservative Union. I thought it was impossible, nowadays, for a Democrat who'd run as such for Federal office to be far to the right of that!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Bright was actually more conservative
than Griffith was before he switched parties. Bright was just smarter; he only ran as a Democrat because he didn't want to deal with the bullshit litmus tests Griffith got hit with. That, and he was admirably straight-forward about wanting to join the party that could help him bring home the most pork to his district, (that and I think he didn't believe he could win the three-way Republican slugfest of a primary). I suspect he'll get more settled into his part over time, and he'd probably make a good candidate for Governor. I redrew his district recently, to make it 50% white, 47% black, making it fairly safe for him and any Democrat that followed. And the odd thing is it really wasn't even difficult.

I just adjusted it and AL-07. AL-07 now goes straight south along the border and takes in the large pool of black voters in Mobile that have been traditionally neglected and unmotivated to vote and now make up a crucial part of any winning Democratic campaign statewide.


[ Parent ]
I've played around with the Alabama Districts as well
And you're right, it's not that hard to keep AL-07 (or whatever number you want to give it -- the Birmingham/Black Belt District) majority black, and make Bright's district much safer.  Of course, that means giving up on the current Al-03, which has seemed like a tempting target for the decade its existed in its current form, but has never really even come all that close to panning out for us.

[ Parent ]
We may as well push for two black majority districts in Alabama
Turn AL-02 into a all of Montgomery county/Eastern black belt district that dips into Mobile, while making AL-07 a district based on most of Jefferson county and the black parts of Tuscaloosa while retaining the Westernmost part of the black belt.  This would probably create two 53%-ish black districts that would be safe for Democrats. I would just give up on AL-01 and AL-03 by making them just 10%-15% black rather than 30% black.  

[ Parent ]
Eventually yes
But it looks really bad to make two black-majority districts right now; give a decade or two for black population growth in those areas to make up for it. Plus, don't want to open up Bright too much to a primary challenge. I do think he'd make a great Governor in the future.  

[ Parent ]
He's very conservative
Why do you think he'd be a great governor, and what kinds of policies do you think he'd support? My feeling is that he'd be essentially a moderately conservative Republican except in name as governor, just as he is as a representative. I wouldn't expect any major initiatives on behalf of poor people from him, for example.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
On the contrary I think he'd
be a good independent Governor. He already has a strong record as Montgomery Mayor, a tenure which earned widespread popularity among a large group of people, from upper class white Republicans to the poor black Democrats. You can see this in his whopping 70% vote total there in 2008.

I've always felt him to be very independent minded, and rather old-school populist in style. I expect he would be center-yes, but I think he would be more moderate than a normal Republican and would bring the same competence he had in Montgomery as mayor to the Capitol. I also feel like he has the potential to become a very popular Democratic governor and to help rebuild the Democratic brand in Alabama for future elections.  


[ Parent ]
How have his votes in Congress
reflected concern for the poor? I don't know his record as Mayor of Montgomery. What did he do for the poor there?

This is a guy with a 72% rating from American Conservative Union. He is not a centrist, so far, in Congress.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
On the redistricting app we've played with here
I've tried exactly that, and it's REALLY hard to get to 50% in both of them -- BUT you're right that we can protect one as a VRA district, and make the other a 40%+ black district.

I think you're right that there's no reason to have 30%+ black districts that still don't have any chance of electing a Democrat, regardless how conservative.

Same thing in Mississippi.  Right now, MS-03 is like 30% or so black, and there is no way any Dem is even competitive.  I've got to think we could still keep a very reasonable looking map, keep MS-02 a black VRA district, and move some black areas into MS-01 and really help Travis Childers (if he hands on through this year).


[ Parent ]
Yeah
I made two 50% black districts, but it looks awful. I ended up having to send a Tendril to Mobile-Montgomery and split about 5 counties.

Strange thing is though making a 47% black district isn't hard at all, getting to 45% and making a reliably Democratic district is really easy, its getting it past that hump to 50% that is very difficult and perhaps unnecessary.

Democrats have had nothing but a long stream of failures against Mike Rogers, who wasn't supposed to win in 2002, I figure its time to give up on him and let Bright now the party has his back.  


[ Parent ]
33% is just not enough in the Deep South anymore
We need around 40% and probably higher as whites are just so Republican there these days.  

[ Parent ]
We should push for 45%-49% AA majority seats
Those are seats like GA-12(Barrow's) that are pretty close to being a lock for Democrats, yet dont unnecissarilly waste Democratic votes like AL-07 and MS-02 do.  Artur Davis could have easily survived in a district like Barrow's.

[ Parent ]
Would the Supreme Court uphold no majority AA districts in AL, though?


[ Parent ]
In a word: no.
Alabama's AA population is 26.4%, and you can create an AA majority district without serious gerrymandering, so they would almost certainly strike down a map that had no AA majority districts.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
After Artur Davis
I'd rather just go for more regular D districts in the south, especially in smaller states. Anyone with ambition to run statewide in redder states seem likely to underperform artificially created D+lots districts. Of course, that's limited by the requirements of the VRA.  

[ Parent ]
Giving up on AL-03 isn't a bad idea
If Democrats couldn't win it in 2008 with a well-financed candidate, we might as well admit we're not going to win it without a major overhaul, and such an overhaul would almost certainly hurt Bright.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
He may be able to survive a primary
in a district with a small black majority.  I believe he is quite popular in the AA community.  

[ Parent ]
I meant overhauling AL-03
Adding more AA voters to the 3rd would take them away from the 2nd, which hurts Bright.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
In Montgomery he is
which would possibly be enough. He'd certainly need to move a little to the left though, which is why I tried to keep his district a little more conservative and a little less black.  

[ Parent ]
I know this is extremely off topic
but I want to end this discussion.

The yellow district is 57% black and the gray district is 53%.

Photobucket

You have to be careful what you wish for, though. I know we've been able to hold them, but John Barrow's and Sanford Bishop's districts are harder holds because of fluctuating black turnout between mid terms and presidential races. The 53% district would seem to be extremely politically polarized, just like the aforementioned Georgia districts.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


[ Parent ]
Which is why Bright would play well there
as someone with a great deal of crossover appeal.

But that's exactly what mine turned out like, and I think two districts look very nasty.  


[ Parent ]
I want General Election numbers
Haley seems to be the second least electable Republican after Bauer; she's too much in the Mark Sanford mode of Republicans and it seems conservative Democrats and independents are tired of that crusader fiscal conservatism. I think Sheheen would have a real shot at beating her, shockingly. I mean who would have though it that these midterms, after Obama's performance in the deep south, could send in a block of Democratic governors from Alabama all the way up northeast to South Carolina, (Georgia in fact looks like the most favorable race of all, given the good campaign Barnes is running, the split Republican opposition, and the fact that the frontrunner, Oxendine, is not only extremely conservative, but he's quite a sleazeball from all accounts I have in that state).

Democrats would have to get a big black turnout
Akin to what happened in 1998, when all three states(AL, GA, SC) unexpectedly elected Democratic governors.

[ Parent ]
Agreed, and further ...
... we were aided by the fact that Fob James and David Beasley were flippin' idiots who at the same time pissed off a significnat number of conservatives (a difficult gymnastic accomplishment!).

I'm not completely writing off GA and AL, but even in good years winning statewide in the Deep South has become really hard, when so many whites now instinctively vote Republican.


[ Parent ]
Georgia is getting better
As the suburban Atlanta counties continue to get more Democratic, but Alabama is close to impossible.  The suburban counties around Birmingham that used to be rural and cast few votes keep growing and are getting even more Republican and now make up about one and a half Congressional districts(AL-06 and have even sept into AL-04).  

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call any of those races
a surprise. Roy Barnes was a political powerhouse and Georgia Republicans, despite some recent federal successes, were not nearly as organized or as potent; the coalition of rural white South Georgia counties and Atlanta-Augusta-Savanna black voters still existed. Barnes margin, 53-44, wasn't exactly close.

Siegelman's election should have been anything but a surprise; I mean he won with 57% of the vote, and Fob James had driven a lot of business interests away.

Jim Hodges was probably the only real surprise of the bunch. Speaking of Hodge, why has he abandoned his political career? The man is only 54, he could have run against Demint this year and had a real chance at making it a race, or even Lindsey Graham last time around, when with high black turnout he would have a real shot at putting together a winning coalition, seeing how lukewarm SC Republicans view Graham.  


[ Parent ]
I believe polls showed Barnes trailing in 1998
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/19...

Mason Dixon had Barnes down by three in their final poll and another poll had him down by six at the end of September.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/19...

Alabama was less of a surprise I guess, as most polls showed Siegelman with a high single digit lead at the end.  The fact that he won by nearly 20 points was a shocker.


[ Parent ]
I've always thought
that perhaps the impeachment of Bill Clinton drove up black turnout in the South that year, (it also help elect Edwards and helped Ernest Fritz Hollings beat Bob Inglis in 1998 to win one last term. Clinton is after all still affectionately referred to as "Our first black president" by many people I know in that community.  

[ Parent ]
That's exactly what happened
There were sick and tired of seeing him ravaged by the Republicans and struck back by turning out at the polls in bigger than expected numbers.  

[ Parent ]
Mississippi elected a Dem governor in '99
So unless the fallout from impeachment was still so strong that it was still present in late 1999, there has to be an independent explanation.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Technically
Musgrove was chosen by the State House of Representatives because he did not win a majority. It was a close race, I'll give you that. But Musgrove won a lot of a political points for his behavior as interim Governor during Fordice's recovery from a near fatal car wreck.

And you have to understand, Musgrove was quite conservative. He actually sent a letter congratulating and supporting Roy Moore in his quest to display the Ten Commandments and he pushed a bevy of Religious movement legislation against gays, abortion, and had In God We Trust put on everything the state could put it on. He only narrowly beat Mike Parker too, but people shouldn't think conservative Democrats aren't competitive in state and local elections in the south anymore, they most definitely are, and this was even more true in Mississippi a decade ago.

I still think Mississippians have never gotten over kicking out Ray Mabus, the best Governor the state has had in a long time. It's odd that he lost reelection, and yet in 2000 or so was voted the Governor of the Century in a newspaper poll, I seem to recall.  


[ Parent ]
Just looked him up
He's Secretary of the Navy now.

[ Parent ]
Nice
I've been wanting to see a poll from Inglis' primary for awhile. I saw him on Colbert awhile back, and he came across as a genuine, sane guy.

On another note, I think DavidNYC's analysis of Chip Cannon losing to a "wildly conservative maniac" is spot on. It's sad that Inglis is going to lose to another reactionary Chaffetzian teabagger.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


Nevada Senate Prediction
First-time poster here so I apologize if going off-topic is frowned upon.  I'll wait for the open thread next time.

But I'll go against the prevailing wisdom on this blog and predict that Angle wins big against Harry Reid, around 10 points.

Angle is actually pretty popular if you look at the Mason-Dixon favorable/unfavorable numbers.  Reid is very unpopular and Mason-Dixon has shown similarly bad favorable numbers for Obama in Nevada (even the Daily Kos shows Obama underwater with his favorables in Nevada).  The only real difference between the favorable/unfavorable numbers for the Daily Kos and for Mason-Dixon is the favorable numbers for the Republicans.

Caveat: I recognize that favorable/unfavorable is a very misleading number.  The argument that people do not vote for people they have an "unfavorable" opinion of is wrong.  A left-leaning or right-leaning voter will likely vote for the Democrat or Republican, respectively, even if they have an "unfavorable" opinion of the politician.  So I'll concede that favorable/unfavorable numbers are not dispositive as it often depends on why people have an "unfavorable" opinion about you.


Very wrong thread :/
And I can't agree with you. Simply put, Angle is a nutcase. That's a harsh assessment, and not good political discourse, but its the truth. Her favorable numbers are not that great, and they will tank when voters find out how far to the right she is. She holds a lot of aggressively far-right views, is abrasive, and has a bad record from the State House. She can't win over the Washoe and Clark county moderates, even if those voters do dislike Reid.  

[ Parent ]
And that's before you throw the scientology stuff into the mix!


[ Parent ]
Reid's going to win...
but it's strange how many "new" posters we have tonight.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
Agreed -- on both counts!


[ Parent ]
The key to me is Obama's number
The last Nevada Research 2000 poll had Obama at 44/46 favorable/unfavorable.  The last Mason-Dixon poll that polled Obama's numbers in late February had his favorable/unfavorable numbers at 39/47.

I just don't see any Democrat winning in a state where Barack Obama has favorable/unfavorable numbers that are a net negative even in Research 2000's polling, especially a Democrat who has similar or worse numbers than the President in the state such as Harry Reid.

It depends on why people have an "unfavorable" opinion of Reid and Obama in Nevada.  I personally feel its personal animus.  And I think it's tough to convince people who feel a personal animus towards you to vote for you based on the "she's too conservative" argument.  Because that type of argument likely will generate animus towards Angle.  What does generate animus in my opinion is what happened with Kirk (I'm surprised it hasn't in Connecticut).


[ Parent ]
When I mention Connecticut
I mean that even the first Rasmussen poll after the controversy showed his favorable/unfavorable rating at around 66%.  So Rasmussen seemed to show in that first poll that the controversy swung people to McMahon but didn't change how they personally felt about him.  That seemed to be the oddest part of the poll considering the reaction from the right and the left (see Nate Silver's initial reaction).

[ Parent ]
ok...
so how exactly did Mark Critz win in a district where Obama's favorable spread was something like -30?

another thing to remember is that Nevada is a somewhat difficult state to poll, and Obama outperformed the polling there in 2008.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Critz was an exceptionally strong candidate
The Democrat will need to be as strong as Critz if he or she is to win in an area where Barack Obama is personally unpopular.

[ Parent ]
I think you put too much store
in Presidential approval numbers, they aren't the sole indicator. In fact I think if Obama's spread is that narrow in NV, Reid will win quite easily. There are a number of other factors, not the least being the polling accuracy, as someone else was right in pointing out Obama's margin in Nevada was much larger than initially predicted by polling.

You also fail to see intensity of Presidential Disapproval; just because many moderates disapprove and and are unsatisfied with Obama, doesn't mean they vote for a candidate shown to be a far-right gadfly. These people may even dislike Reid, but I doubt a majority of them will end up being able to pull the lever down for someone with a collection of heated views so far from the political mainstream, like Angle.

Last of all, this is way too early to make predictions on such silly information. For instance two months ago Reid was being left for dead, now he's rebounding in all the polling as his opponents collapse. Angle will likely come into the General with almost no money, compared to Reid's 20 million or so. Reid is an experienced streefighter politician, no stranger to tough battles. He'll start hitting her immediately after the primary and he's never going to stop. By the end her Favorablity numbers will make Reid look as popular as Mother Theresa, and that, my friend, is what will likely carry Reid over the finish line by 4-5 points come November.  


[ Parent ]
There's a live open thread
that you should indeed have posted this to.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I agree


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
WELCOME!!!!
:)  

[ Parent ]
I also just noticed
That those were the most exhaustingly thorough crosstabs i've ever seen. Rasmussen would never give you that amount of detail.  

SC-04: Only thing giving me hope
is the large MoE, and as AL-Gov showed, polls can be terribly off.

Even so, not looking good for the sane wing of the GOP.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/



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