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SSP Daily Digest: 6/2 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 8:14 AM EDT


  • AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln's closing ad for her campaign is really, really sad-sack. "I know you're angry at Washington - believe me, I heard you on May 18" and "I'd rather lose this election fighting for what's right than win by turning my back on Arkansas." Gawd.
  • CT-Sen: Dick Blumenthal is out with his first TV ads of the cycle, featuring people he helped in his capacity as attorney general. You'll need to click over to his site to watch them. No word on the size of the buy (grrr).
  • FL-Sen: Boy, Joe Trippi sure has shacked up with one serious shitball. Jeff Greene, who spent his entire adult life registered either as "no party" or a Republican, donated five grand to Meg fucking Whitman's gubernatorial campaign just last year. Lately he's given a bunch of money to Dems, but jeez - to Whitman, of all people? Oh, and he also gave money to Pete Wilson back in 1988. That should help him with the Hispanic vote.
  • IL-Sen: Where to start with Mark Kirk? How about this: Liberal blogger Nitpicker first nailed Mark Kirk for misleading people about his military service record all the way back in 2005 (while chasing down a bullshit attack on Paul Hackett, interestingly enough). TPM also lists many more occasions where Mark Kirk did his best to make it appear he served in Operation Iraqi Freedom (he did not). Meanwhile, Bloomberg has another video of Kirk claiming to have won the Intelligence Officer of the Year award (he did not). And last but not least, the Navy itself is saying it alerted Kirk to the fact that the media was inquiring about the award story. Ouch.
  • KS-Sen: State Sen. David Haley officially kicked off his campaign to succeed Sam Brownback yesterday. Haley lost a bid for Secretary of State in 2006. He joins former newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger and academic administrator Lisa Johnston in the Democratic primary.
  • KY-Sen: Libertarian purity trolls in Kentucky have decided not to field a candidate to express their unhappiness with Rand Paul... mostly because they don't have, you know, a candidate. Meanwhile, Kentucky Republicans are pretty pissed themselves. The GOP-led state Senate adopted a resolution on a voice vote expressing support for the Civil Rights Act, and criticizing those (like a certain nameless senate nominee) as "outside the mainstream of American values" and part of an "extreme minority of persons in the United States" for their opposition to the law. Double ouch.
  • NY-Sen: Will it blend? The answer is always yes, whether you're talking about a blender from Blendtec or a Schumer from Flatbush. The NY GOP nominated former CIA officer Gary Bernsten, who vowed, a little too Jack Bauer-like, to "pursue Sen. Schumer in every town, on every street and every village." Political consultant Jay Townsend, who may be in this just to sell more DVDs on how to run campaigns, will also be on the primary ballot - as will anyone insane enough to try to petition his or her way on. Whoever the lucky winner is, they'll have to face the implacable Schumer whirling blades of death in November.
  • KS-Gov: Sen. Sam Brownback, running for governor, picked state Sen. Jeff Colyer has his running-mate. Colyer is also a plastic surgeon whose Google results lead with the fact that he performs breast augmentations.
  • NV-Gov: Jon Ralston points out that Rory Reid has $2.6 million in cash-on-hand, while likely Republican opponent Brian Sandoval has just $575K. Sandoval has had to fight a primary battle against incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons, while Reid's had the nomination to himself.
  • AR-03: Steve Womack has finally picked up an endorsement from one of the people he beat in the first round in AR-03, businessman Kurt Maddox. His opponent in the runoff, Cecile Bledsoe, has scored the support of also-rans Steve Lowry, Doug Matayo, and, of course, Gunner DeLay.
  • CO-07: Navy vet Lang Sias doesn't live in the 7th CD, and he also hasn't done something else there or anywhere else for the last decade: vote. In fact, the former Democrat (who donated to Mark Udall in 2002) didn't even manage to vote for John McCain when he was volunteering for his campaign two years ago. Sias is fighting for the GOP nod against Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier, who is whomping him in the cash department.
  • GA-07: GOP State Rep. Clay Cox is the first candidate on the air in the race to replace retiring Rep. John Linder. Amusingly enough, Cox's ad features his support for the "Fair Tax" - one of the key issues which sunk Tim Burns in PA-12. Obviously it's a different district, but I'll be curious to see if it flies in a Republican primary. Anyhow, no word on the size of the buy (of course). (Also, is it just me, or does the part of the ad in front of the heavy vehicles look greenscreened?)
  • NY-03: Howard Kudler, a Nassau County teacher, will likely run against Rep. Peter King, says Newsday. Kudler challenged GOP Assemblyman David McDonough in 2008, losing 62-38.
  • NY-19: Biden alert! The VPOTUS was seen yesterday doing a fundraiser for Rep. John Hall in Bedford, NY. No word on the haul, though the event was described as "small." In the evening, the elder Biden also did an event in NYC for his son Beau's DE-AG re-election campaign.
  • Polling: Mark Blumenthal tries to pin Scott Rasmussen down on why his firm hasn't been polling key primaries closer to the actual elections. When confronted with evidence that his patterns this cycle have changed from the last, Ras says that general elections and presidential primaries are "different" from regular primaries. He also claims that the AR-Sen race is only "of intense interest to some on the political left," which doesn't exactly gibe with reality, given how much ink has been spilled on this contest by the tradmed. Meanwhile, speaking of questionable polling, Nate Silver takes a look at Internet-based pollsters. While Zogby of course is the suck, Silver thinks that Harris Interactive and YouGov "are capable of producing decent results."
  • Passings: Former North Dakota Gov. Art Link passed away at the age of 96. He served two terms in the 70s, losing a bid for a third term to Republican Allen Olson in 1980.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/2 (Morning Edition)
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    OK - I'm sorry to be harping on this again..
    .. and I realise this is somewhat OT, but am I really the only one to see some discrepancy here?

    "The NYT lists many occasions where Dick Blumenthal did his best to make it appear he served in Vietnam (he did not)." <- This is a smear and a non-story, and a waste of journalistic ink.

    "TPM lists many occasions where Mark Kirk did his best to make it appear he served in Operation Iraqi Freedom (he did not)." <- This is a serious and legitimate concern, and shows you can't trust him.

    Keep in mind that even in the full Blumenthal video - which, it was argued here and elsewhere, exculpated him - the only difference was that it showed him, earlier on, not outright claiming he'd been in Vietnam, but merely making it seem like he had been there. The same thing Kirk is called out for in the above sentence.

    Can't we just call shenanigans no matter who pulls this kind of shit? I'm just flabbergasted that politicians think they can get away with this stuff.

    OK, back to lurking mode .. unlike my couple of posts on this particular bugbear may suggest, I do tremendously value your work at SSP, it's become my primary source for the nitty gritty of US election news.

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


    nimh, you needed to pay attention when the NYT story on Blumenthal broke......
    When the NYT story was first published, MOST of us here were calling for Blumenthal's head and hoping against hope he'd be replaced on the ballot.

    Things changed regarding Blumenthal because it came out that the NYT's work was a lot more sloppy than anyone initially realized or suspected.  The NYT was incomplete in its research, failed to uncover as later journalists did on follow-up the many times Blumenthal was honest and accurate about the nature of his military service, and the fact that many CT-based journalists had no notion at all that he ever misrepresented his military service.  Further, the NYT story claimed Blumenthal lied about having been on the Harvard swim team, when in fact the NYT was wrong, and Blumenthal was on the Harvard swim team as verified later by a former teammate.

    Regarding Kirk, the story is new, and it's coming from multiple sources (TPM; Bloomberg; others) separately doing their own research.  Who knows where it will lead?

    But yeah, in light of what Blumenthal went through, and what Republicans tried to do to him as they smelled blood in the water, it's fair to go after Kirk in response.  Politics ain't beanbag.

    Did you know, btw, that Orrin Hatch introduced a bill that would make it a crime (yes, with criminal, not civil, punishment) to lie about military service in order to seek pubic office?  This was in direct response to Blumenthal.  Now Hatch tries to claim the bill wouldn't apply to Kirk, even though the bill on its face clearly does so.

    This is a fair political battle for us to engage now.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Also,
    while the claims against Blumenthal are squishy and can arguably be explained by poor word choice, Kirk said very clearly he was the only member of Congress to serve in Operation Irqui Freedom, which 1) isn't true because he didn't and 2) if I'm remembering correctly isn't true because Rep. Murphy did.

    Plus there are other mistatements about the award and the command center in the Pentagon which adds to the mess.


    [ Parent ]
    Well said nimh, I competely agree!
    It really bothers me when people defend a scoundrel because he is "our" scoundrel.

    As you said we should call shenanigans no matter who does it and yes I cant believe any pol would be dumb enough (or egotistical enough) to think they could get away with it.

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    [ Parent ]
    What I havent seen is
    Kirk accurately describing his military record.  Blumenthal sucked it up, no doubt, but within that video of him saying he served in Vietnam is him also saying he served during Vietnam.  That's what I havent yet seen from Kirk, when he has has described his military record without lying or exaggerating the hell out of it?

    I think Blumenthal simply lucked out with that video, it could have been a lot of worse.


    [ Parent ]
    GA-07
    "Obviously it's a different district, but I'll be curious to see if it flies in a Republican primary"

    Well, considering Linder wrote a book and legislation centered around the Fair Tax, I'd think it'd be an issue a Republican must support in the district.


    MS-01: McGlowan won't endorse Nunnelee
    Political trivia, just for fun.
    Let's see if anyone can get these.  :-)

    1. Who is the only Quaker serving in Congress right now?

    2. George McGovern's personal campaign photographer had a child who is now a famous comedian.  Who is it?

    3. Which U.S. Senator has a sister who is a Hollywood film and music video director?

    4. Which state has had for the last 30 years non-stop a U.S. Senator who was also a former Governor?

    5. Who is the only member of Congress who has been convicted specifically for lying to the voters?

    6. Which Congressional district has had every single one of its Representatives (until the one currently in office) get divorced while serving in office?

    7. In the 2004 presidential primary, Dennis Kucinich won only one COUNTY in the United States.  What was it?

    8. Which current member of Congress was elected to Congress as the Democratic AND Republican candidate... in the same election?

    9. The founder of General Motors is a distant relative to which current U.S. Senator?

    10. Who is the only former Nixon administration staff member that is currently in Congress?


    the only one I can figure out pre-coffee is 1
    Rush Holt!

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    A few answers:
    4. I think (guess) it is Delaware.

    8. Without looking it up it's either VT's Congressman or Sen. Sanders.


    [ Parent ]
    You have...
    something right and something wrong there.  :-)

    [ Parent ]
    Hmmm...
    I really want to look up the VT thing, but I won't to uphold the spirit of the thing.

    [ Parent ]
    It's Rep. Pete Welch
    The Vermont GOP did not run a candidate in 2008 and he won the GOP primary on the strength of write-in votes

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Thank you.
    I couldn't even remember his name!

    [ Parent ]
    The two I know off hand...
    7. Maui County, Hawaii

    10. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho)

    The rest I'll have to think over for a little bit.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large


    [ Parent ]
    Ding ding ding!
    Spoiler alert: JFM110 got those two correct.

    [ Parent ]
    Only one I know...
    4) Kit Bond (Iowa)

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Ummm...
    Kit Bond is from Missouri, not Iowa.

    [ Parent ]
    Very true
    How did I screw THAT one up?

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Bzzt.
    Kit Bond (R-MO) assumed office in January 1987, which falls short of the 30-year mark.

    Notice I never said it had to be the same person for all 30 years.


    [ Parent ]
    4. Nebraska
    Exxon, Kerrey, Nelson

    [ Parent ]
    Ding ding ding!
    Yep.

    [ Parent ]
    Wild Guess on 6
    Alaska - AL

    (either that or one of the HI districts)


    [ Parent ]
    I think #8 is Charlie Rangel
    For years Charlie Rangel would always get the Republican and Democrat lines when he ran and am pretty sure they cross endorsed him when he ran for the 1st time too against Adam Clayton Powell.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    6. NV-03?
    Jon Porter and Dina Titus are the only 2 Reps ever elected from that district.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    I had the same suspicion
    And it was correct. Jon Porter got divorced in 2006.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large

    [ Parent ]
    3 & 9
    I went looked them up so I won't spoil it for the others who want to figure them out.

    Once I knew the GM founder's name, 9 was pretty easy.  For #3, some of the music videos were for the Material Girl.


    [ Parent ]
    I know 3
    It's Blanche Lincoln, whose sister is a horror movie director. (She did "Pet Semetary", although I can't remember her name. It's not Lincoln.)

    [ Parent ]
    Mary Lambert
    I'm eager to get the results of 5 and 6.  I've wasted lots of time today tracking the rest down.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    There are some jokes in there somewhere.
    Kinda sickens me to know that the kin of a senator I despise directed in adaptation of a book by my favorite author, Stephen King.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    You'll have to tell us 5 if no one gets it
    Because, well, that's the only one Im dying to find out.  :)

    [ Parent ]
    Just looked it up
    Thought it was a current Congresscritter, and that they lied about something policy wise or something, which would have been even more to see them go down!

    [ Parent ]
    I
    have somewhat impressed myself. I knew seven out of the ten without looking them up. Not too shabby.      

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Here's my attempt.
    1. Rush Holt (D-NJ)
    2. Sarah Silverman
    3. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)
    4. Nebraska
    5. ???
    6. NV-03
    7. Maui County, Hawaii
    8. Peter Welch (D-VT)
    9. ???
    10. Walt Minnick (D-ID)

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    Yep!
    #5 is Wes Cooley, former Republican from Oregon.

    As for #9, would it help if you knew that GM founder William Durant's middle name is Crapo?  ;-)

    As for #6, argh.  OK, NV-03 counts then.  But when Porter's the ONLY one... well, I was thinking of an older district that's had multiple Representatives get divorced while in office, not just one person.

    You are scary good at this.


    [ Parent ]
    NY-Sen
    There's also this news about American Idol judge Kara DioGuardi going to New York to support one of the Republicans seeking the nomination to challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

    Of course, it is her father, former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi.


    Incumbants going down
    So what's the records for incumbants going down in primaries in one cycle?

    There have been two Senators (Bennett and Spector) and two House members (Mollohan and Griffith).  Another Senator (Lincoln) is hanging by a thread.

    Also interesting is that two of those defeats were products of party switching.


    I'm sure you already know this
    but just for the record, Bennett never even made it to the primary--he was broomed at the pre-primary nominating convention.

    68, Dem-leaning indie, MI-8

    [ Parent ]
    Right. Yes. Thanks for
    correcting me.

    Still curious as to the record of successful intra-party challenges in one cycle.


    [ Parent ]
    It's got to be in a year ending in "2"
    With post-redistricting incumbent vs. incumbent primaries.

    [ Parent ]
    Looks like...
    Alabama Republicans didn't give a rip about Dale Peterson.  28% of the vote for last place.  Couldn't even make the runoff.  FAIL.  Here again is his hilarious commercial.

    So who on earth WOULD support "such a dummy" like Dorman Grace? Well, per last night, at least 144,747 Alabama Republicans (they're still counting), good enough to make the runoff with 35% of the vote. (He'll face John McMillan, who got 37%.)

    Yeah, I have no clue who Grace and McMillan are.  But I guess they must've gotten the "thugs and criminals" vote.  :-)


    I noticed he said
    He was a Marine during Vietnam, rather than in Vietnam. Too bad the guy is history, it could've been fun bashing him about that for a while.

    [ Parent ]
    KY-Sen - Awesome, 17-point Conway surge in Rasmussen polling!
    At this rate, Conway will be up 15 by next week!

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    LOL
    even Rasmussen has to admit that Paul's far far right positions on everything has harmed him.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    I wonder
    In the wake of the GOP standing in support of the Civil Rights Act (almost saying "screw off" to Rand Paul), coupled with Paul saying that he didn't think babies of illegals born in the US should be considered citizens, will his numbers continue to drop?

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Nice fudge from Ras
    Still has to have the widest margin of course!

    [ Parent ]
    AL-Gov: Nate Silver says...
    the DailyKos Research 2000 poll of the Democratic primary, which had Artur Davis LEADING Ron Sparks 41%-33%, was off by 33 points, which is the 5th LARGEST error in Nate's entire database of 4,500 polls.  He feels a disturbance in the force.

    Equating R2K with Rassmussen?
    It's a BIG problem that the two most prolific pollsters -- Research 2000 and Rasmussen -- are both producing work of marginal quality.


    [ Parent ]
    I trust Nate if that's what he's seeing.
    I'm hoping he lays it out more clearly in a full post.

    [ Parent ]
    No, only in terms...
    of prolifi... prolificity... prolificness... prolificitude.

    Ah, I give up.  (looks up dictionary.com)

    Ah.  In terms of prolificacy.  :-)


    [ Parent ]
    hahahahha
    I love when that happens, good ole English!

    [ Parent ]
    Nate owes an explanation for that, because it makes no sense......
    R2K has blown ONE race, that's it.  And Sparks' own internal poll showed a 42-41 race a week or two out!

    No one saw the 62-38 blowout coming.

    On all other races, DailyKos/R2K has been in the same ballpark as other credible contemporaneous polls.  Yes they've had a very slight Democratic bias, but as conspiracy smartly pointed out earlier this week, that was because DK/R2K was relying on 2008 turnout models, which they dialed back more recently.

    Rasmussen is the lone consistent outlier.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    As for turnout models
    the recent R2K polls of PA-Sen suggest otherwise, ref http://www.swingstateproject.c...  

    [ Parent ]
    That is a problem.
    They're way too optimistic.

    [ Parent ]
    That one is a problem
    But most of their recent polls certainly have corrected the problem. Trust me on that, I look for it every time.

    [ Parent ]
    Your word is good with me
    PA-Sen just happened to be the one that I researched.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually that skew doesn't matter as much as you think......
    If you re-weight for a more realistic party ID breakdown, that doesn't change the toplines much.

    In fact, that's true as a rule in polling, that fixing a problem with weighting usually changes the toplines only slightly; that's just the way the math works out.  There are exceptions to that, and obviously the worse the skew, the worse the poll.  But most skews are like the DK/R2K PA-Sen poll you cite, where the re-weighting needed is only a slight one.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Please elaborate
    Unless you believe that there's a difference in numbers of cross-over voters, that doesn't make sense.  

    [ Parent ]
    Let me explain by the example you cited......
    You cited that DailyKos/R2K PA-Sen poll.  It showed a party ID breakdown of 47D-39R-14I, and a topline of Sestak beating Toomey 43-40.

    The DK/R2K poll internals showed Sestak winning Dems 76-8, losing GOPers 82-6, and tied with indies 35-35.

    Using those internals, apply them to a sample with the 2006 exit poll party ID breakdown of 43D-38R-19I.  That gets you a topline of Sestak beating Toomey 42-41.  So compared to the DK/R2K poll, Sestak goes down a point, Toomey up a point.

    That's what I call a very small change.

    Now, in the closest races, obviously the smallest changes are a big deal, the difference between winning and losing.

    But this far out in what we all acknowledge anyway is a close race, a 42-41 margin isn't really any different from 43-40.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I was too lazy to run the numbers
    Thank you. I now calculate a ratio of

    2.5% in Sestak support for the 4% difference in D registration


    [ Parent ]
    What's even worse (more embarrassing)
    is that a lawyer just used numbers to prove a point to an engineeeeer....

    [ Parent ]
    If it makes you feel better, engineering is in my blood!......
    My late dad was a mechanical engineering professor at Iowa State for 31 years.  My late sister's husband has been an electrical engineering professor at Michigan Tech for 33 years.  My oldest brother double-majored in computer science and accounting.  My next-oldest brother has a math degree.  And my nephew has both a physics degree and a law degree.

    So I claim my smarts through osmosis.  :-)

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Nate's right - it's a big, annoying problem.
    Both of these pollsters show some signs of bias in their decisions about what to poll and how to poll it.  R2K is much better about this, but I hate that it doesn't poll Obama job approval for example.  Rasmussen is way off the reservation with its loaded issue polling and its use of likely voter models for non-election polls.  I don't think the two are comparable in terms of bias.  Rasmussen is much worse, but R2K is far less than perfect.

    And both of them are producing some odd duck numbers.  Hard to prove that the odd duck results are the result of bias.  All I can say in an informed way on this part is that at least R2K is putting its ass on the line by pumping out "final" polls for actual races.  Rasmussen is hiding, and that is far more sinister than bad results.

    And it's tough to judge R2K based on the AL-GOV poll.  Southern Dem primaries are very tough to judge.  Pollster after pollster screwed up the 2008 primaries in the South, always giving Hillary way too much support.  It's not easy to do, but at least R2K had the integrity to put its ass on the line.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    When Ras starts showing his work
    I will rank him in the same place as Research 2000. Full disclosure of crosstabs should be mandatory.

    [ Parent ]
    I actually subscribe to Rasmussen (know thy enemy!) and see the crosstabs, and...
    ...even with as much as he discloses, it's not fully transparent.

    One big problem is Rasmussen doesn't disclose the turnout model.  That is, the crosstabs show what % a candidate gets from, say, Dems, GOPers, and indies, but there's no disclosure of what % of the sample was made up of each group.  Same thing for race and other demographic breakdowns:  no breakdown for turnout model.  There IS a way to use the toplines and available crosstabs together to reconstruct what the turnout model might be, and I've tried to do that before, but it's inexact at best, and Rasmussen must be aware only the rarest of political junkies would go to that much trouble.

    The bigger problem is Scott Rasmussen refuses to disclose his likely voter screen.  The one time I found an interview question he answered no the subject, he danced around in defensive posture with a long-winded statement that never actually answered the question, "what is your likely voter screen?"  The only clue I've ever had about his likely voter screen was once when a DailyKos diarist got a Rasmussen poll call and transcribed the questions in the diary during the call; if that diary was accurate, the only screening question was a vague one that tested "interest" in the upcoming midterm election.

    DailyKos is much more transparent, showing the exact turnout model and exact number of responses to each question.  The only thing missing is full disclosure of the screening questions, but that's less an issue when you don't have frequent outliers, or if outliers can be easily explained from the crosstabs provided.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Just to make sure we differentiate
    The R2K polls we mainly see are for Dkos, obviously a very partisan organization.  R2K polls what they are paid to poll and so we mainly see polls that are showing where we as Democrats want to be looking.

    Rasmussen is supposedly non-partisan.


    [ Parent ]
    I get that but
    they should have the integrity to push back against misleading methods and presentation.  They should insist on polling Obama approval for DKos for example.  

    And they did that bullshit AR-Sen poll not for DKos but another organization where they asked a bunch of loaded issue questions and THEN polled the horserace.  R2K appears to be at least tolerant of potentially biased methods and presentation, and that's not a good thing.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    Also I think R2K was one of the most off in the VA-Gov election
    They only had McDonnell winning by 10 points. Actual margin was 19, I believe.  

    [ Parent ]
    18
    I predicted that McDonnell would win by 20 points before the election.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Disagree completely, R2K's job is NOT to push back......
    Research 2000 is a private business serving paying clients.  They do NOT purport to serve any public interest.  There is nothing unethical about their following a client's instructions on what poll questions to ask, and from what pool of the population ("adults" vs. "registered voters" vs. "likely voters" with a screen decided by the client).  As long as R2K follows all laws and regulations and whatever ethical guidelines the polling industry has established, R2K has an obligation to do what clients ask without "pushback" on things like what poll questions to ask.

    Regarding DailyKos in particular, the polls are the most transparent any pollster or client provides, right down to providing not just percentages but actually raw numbers.  The only other pollster I recall providing raw data is Insider Advantage, and they only on selected occasions.  The transparency itself meets any ethical obligations DailyKos can be argued to have.

    Now, that doesn't mean I don't agree with you on the some of the problems with DailyKos-commissioned polls, because I do.  But those are not Research 2000's problems.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Ha!
    Sorry, but that's a classic lawyer's perception: I was just doing my client's bidding...I have an obligation to zealously represent my client no matter what questionable things they ask me to do as long as it doesn't cross the line of illegal or unethical conduct.  I'm a lawyer too and I'm good with that to an extent.

    But pollsters live and die by their reputations.  R2K's duty not to engage in misleading tactics is a duty owed to itself to maintain its own credibility and survival.  I'm not saying they have to serve some public good.  You're right, it's their God-given right to propogate whatever bullshit their clients want, but I don't have to believe it and neither does anyone else.  And when I stop believing it, and when other people do, they are no longer useful at what they do.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    I don't agree that their DailyKos polls include any "misleading tactics"......
    I don't think there's anything misleading in the DailyKos polling.

    They use favorability instead of job approval for Obama, and it's correct to complain that's not an accurate gauge of what people care about...they want their President to do a good job, and if they like him as a person, all the better but not as important.  But that doesn't make it "misleading" to poll favorability.  Even if Markos personally believes "favorability" is a synonym for "job approval" which I haven't read to be the case, that's simply an honest difference of opinion, even though obviously he'd be wrong, and most importantly it doesn't make the poll itself misleading.

    Regarding the partisan makeup and racial makeup and other demographics in DailyKos' turnout models, again, there's nothing misleading as long as the turnout model is fully disclosed.

    The whole point of Markos' extreme transparency in publishing his polling results is that transparency itself makes the poll not misleading.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    The AR-Sen poll to which I refer above
    is the one I consider to have crossed the line.  Nothing DKos has done is over-the-top, but DKos does have an obvious, disclosed partisan bias.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    I have to take issue even with that complaint for 2 reasons......
    First, the fact that the question order itself is disclosed exculpates Research 2000 from any blame.  The client can be blamed, but not R2K.

    Second, the 48-46 topline actually is consistent with not only the one other public poll commissioned by DailyKos, but also at least "some" private polling according to Chuck Todd in one of his tweets commenting on the DailyKos poll.  So my perception is that Halter really does have a narrow lead.  And honestly, even Lincoln's own latest ads have the "feel" of an incumbent who knows she's down, although that's as far from scientific as one can get.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah I don't disagree with the top line.
    Just the question ordering.  May not have made a difference, but why do it?  Seems very unorthodox and creates an inference of bias.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    The response from Steve Singiser
    To that very question when I raised it was that they wanted a way of making a comparison with people who aren't in office so don't have a job approval rating to measure. I can understand that but I don't see why they can't ask approval in addition, mainly because it is asking for trouble when favorability is the most prominently displayed number of the frontpage. I got no answer on that.

    [ Parent ]
    Cost?
    I wonder how much more it would cost them to add that question.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Sounds like they underestimated black voting
    Pollster after pollster screwed up the 2008 primaries in the South, always giving Hillary way too much support.
     

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Actually, poor polling of people of color is a systemic problem in polling......
    I see time and again that minorities are undercounted or miscounted in polling.  This is true in the year-round trial heats as well as even exit polls, although in 2008 the exit polls were better.

    Perhaps the biggest example is that the much-balleyhooed Bush performance with Hispanics in 2004 was a partial myth, with the national exit poll showing a 53-44 Kerry advantage, but a compilation of state exit poll subsamples, which were conducted separately from the national exit poll, showed Bush losing Hispanics 58-40.  That's still a far cry from Obama's 67-31 advantage over McCain, but it was double the margin the national exit poll showed in the same election.  Mitofsky, the celebrated guy who was in charge of the exit polls, himself admitted that there might have been a problem with the national exit poll not getting into precincts where minority voters would be more representative of their respective groups, while the state exit polls did so.  And this problem wasn't limited to Hispanics, it extended to Asians and Jews as well.

    In year-round trial heat horse race polling, minorities are routinely registered as favoring Republicans more heavily than bears out in real election results.  This doesn't always screw up the toplines of horse race polls, so it generally goes unnoticed, but in elections where minorities prove more prominent, the problem throws off results.  Perhaps the most conspicuous recent example of this was the Nevada polling in 2008-Prez, where all the polls showed Obama up by a mid-single digit margin, but he won in a 12-point, 55-43 blowout.  Hispanic turnout was woefully underestimated in all the trial heat polls, based on faulty turnout models that understandably relied on recent past elections.  But Hispanic turnout appeared to have doubled as a percentage of the state's total vote compared to 2004, and that just killed all the pre-election turnout models.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I agree that DailyKos polling Obama's "favorables" instead of "job approvals" is a BIG problem......
    A good poll uses "job approval" for an incumbent officeholder and "favorability" for a non-incumbent candidate.  I suppose you can poll both "job approval" and "favorability" for an incumbent, and that really would be even more helpful since personal likeability is a factor, even for incumbents, in voting behavior.

    The DailyKos weekly track has a big eyesore by using "favorability" for Obama.  It's just not comparable, and I personally disregard it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    KS-Sen/KS-Gov
    I'm having a difficult time understanding why there is so much interest on the Democratic side for Senator Brownback's seat. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since George McGill in 1930.

    Brownback supporters call themselves Brownbackers and Sen. Colyer performs breast augmentations...I'm sure there are some clever jokes that can be made out of this...


    This is Swing State Project
    There is interest in every race here, especially at the Senate and Gov levels.  Out in the real world, and even elsewhere in the blogosphere, there is virtually no interest in the KS-Sen race, which is probably healthier for most people.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    KS-Sen
    I was referring to there being three candidates in the race.

    [ Parent ]
    Gotcha
    I misunderstood.  I was impressed that three Democrats lined up to get pasted in MS-03 last night.  

    Running allows a person to raise his or her profile in the party and is a great networking tool if nothing else.  I had a law school classmate who ran against Ginny Brown-Waite a few years back.  He got destroyed and never had a chance.  But the contacts he made and profile he developed with local Democrats helped him get a law firm off the ground, which is now quite successful.  There can be lots of benefits to running a losing race.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    it's bentley in alabama
    cleburne county finally reported; bentley is the star of the night last night

    How so?
    How is Bentley the star of last night? I'll admit I didn't expect him to make it to the runoff but I think most people thought it was anyone's game and I'm not overly surprised by it. The star of last night would have to be Sparks, not too many people thought he would win and no one expected him to win by that margin.    

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    no 0ne
    picked him(even you); i thought sparks would win the whole way

    [ Parent ]
    Did
    you honestly think Sparks would win with 60+. If you did I tip my hat to you because I don't think anyone made that prediction. As for Bentley polling showed him lagging fourth but competitive all the same, nothing low voter turnout couldn't fix. In situations like these were you have many candidates anything can happen and it really isn't that great of shock as Sparks winning by that much. All polling and indications showed a Davis win and even Sparks own internals had him leading by like one or two and he chose not to release them. To each is own though.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Brownback must be feeling confident
    State Sen. Colyer is well-known as an uber-conservative. Normally, a conservative like Brownback would pick someone from the moderate wing of the party to help unify it. I guess he's going for geographical balance, since Colyer's from Johnson County.  

    But still, Colyer's a nutcase. Oh--and as a strict social conservative, it's pretty amusing that he does breast augmentations. I wonder what God thinks of Colyer screwing with his handiwork.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    Dem poll of PA-Sen
    Sestak up 47-40 over Toomey.

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...


    For the record
    I gave five dollars to Meg Whitman's campaign mainly because I have never liked Jerry Brown's support for a value added tax among other anti-Brown reasons.  

    Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

    23, Democrat, IA-2


    Your
    lucky this isn't Daily KOS otherwise you would be fried alive.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    The underfunded Whitman will
    surely appreciate your fiver.  I hear she uses them to line her cat's litter box.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    i thought she used them to light
    her cigarettes?

    [ Parent ]
    No no no
    She uses 20's for that...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    and $100's to wipe her ass


    [ Parent ]
    Way to take it to the next level, man!!!


    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    I bet she has a scrooge mcduck style
    tub of money.

    [ Parent ]
    You
    do realize Whitman has spending an average of 500K a day out of her pocket right? Something is telling me your five bucks could have been better spent.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    You're right
    I dislike Jerry Brown and wanted to do something.

    Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

    23, Democrat, IA-2


    [ Parent ]
    I
    should not encourage you, as I support Brown, but you could always phonebank a few hours.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Just out of curiousity...
    Why don't you like Brown?

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    His support for a regressive value added tax
    I think he'll just make the budget crisis worse.  He's thrown out some ideas in the past that I just think are loopy.  I know this isn't the site to say this on, but one party states usually aren't a good thing in my eyes.


    Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

    23, Democrat, IA-2


    [ Parent ]
    You both are correcr
    and I thank you for the civility.  

    Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

    23, Democrat, IA-2


    Palin
    http://www.facebook.com/note.p...

    At least her spelling was correct this time!


    Irony
    Murkowski was one of the 1st people to receive money from Sarah PAC and Palin held a fundraiser for her last year.

    [ Parent ]
    Sarah Palin is simply a moron
    And what makes this even weirder is that Palin has been using her celebrity fame to boost female GOP candidates and has been talking her "mamma grizzlies".  She has endorsed pretty much every woman candidate across

    This just makes absolutely zero sense, and even more so considering it's her freaking home-state!


    [ Parent ]
    Im still going to quibble with the title
    Call me an elitist un-American but you simply don't use contractions in a formal writing, even if you are Sarah Palin and it's on facebook.  "Competition's Good", bleh, no, "Competition is Good" sounds soooooo much more proper.  And contracting that just makes her point harder to drive home; spell it out literally and for your reader.

    She sucks, end of story.


    [ Parent ]
    Really?
    Sarah Palin regularly makes a mockery of grammar, sentence structure, and even meaning itself with her word-salad English ...and you're worried about her use of contractions? Priorities, my dear Andrew, priorities.  :)

    Honestly, I just hope she comes out in support of some English-only measure somewhere just for the potential mockery.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]

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