2:30am: It looks like we won't have any resolution tonight on AL-Gov (R). The good people of Cleburne County have apparently gone home for the night, leaving that county's 17 precincts unreported. Those are the only precincts outstanding in the state. So, until then, Bentley and James are at 25% each, but Bentley is leading by 140 votes. We'll see if they figure this out tomorrow.
1:48am: I want some of what they're smoking down in Cleburne County, Alabama. It's been six freakin' hours, dudes!
1:25am: So now that the AP has accounted for empty precincts in Mobile, our projection has shifted to Dr. Rob Bentley by 97 votes instead of Fob James by 2500+ for the second runoff ticket.
1:08am: And the AP finally gets off the pot and calls AL-05 (R), despite that one outstanding precinct in Jackson Co. Mo Brooks wins it without a runoff, at 51%.
12:51am: AP finally brings some closure to AL-02 (R). Runoff for Roby and Barber. Roby just missed the cutoff at 49%.
12:47am: Wow, Bentley moves back into 2nd place in AL-Gov (R). Only a 150 vote lead, though.
12:40am: Our model has James taking the 2nd spot in the runoff, with his lead over Bentley projected to edge up to 2,700.
12:37am: AP has Byrne definitely making the R Gov runoff. In the 2nd place scramble, Tim James is edging ahead of Bentley. They're tied at 25, but now James has a 150 vote edge. 95% reporting.
12:35am: AP calls AL-07 as runoff for Sewell and Smoot.
12:28am: 100% have reported in the 7th, although no call from the AP yet. Still Sewell 37, Smoot 29, with Hilliard missing the runoff at 27.
12:22am: It's over in AL-05 as Parker Griffith has conceded to Mo Brooks. Brooks will face Dem Steve Raby in November. What a monumentally stupid idea this party switch was -- and kudos to DavidNYC for his astute post on this idiocy back in December. Parker Griffith Can Lose.
12:11am: SSP Labs' mainframe is spewing out punch cards telling us that we can call a Sewell/Smoot runoff in AL-07. Right now it's Sewell 37, Smoot 29, Hilliard 27.
12:02am: Bradley Byrne is putting a little distance on the rest of the crowd in AL-Gov (R). He's at 28, with the real battle, to make 2nd and get into the runoff, between James and Bentley at 25 apiece. Bentley has an edge of about 1,400. 91% are reporting.
11:59pm: In AL-02, with 93.5% in, Martha Roby has climbed up to 49.1% thanks to the Montgomery vote coming in. I'm not sure if there's enough out there to get her over the hump outright tonight, though.
11:55pm: Some downballot local color: George Wallace Jr. loses the GOP Treasurer primary to a fellow by the name of Young Boozer.
11:43pm: A big clot of Sewell votes showed up in AL-07. She's up to 37 now, with Smoot at 29 and Hilliard at 27. So the real battle here is whether Smoot or Hilliard makes the runoff. (And hopefully Smoot/Hilliard consolidates all the non-Sewell votes.)
11:41pm: Another seesaw in AL-Gov. Bradley Byrne is back on top at 27, and now Bentley is in 2nd at 26. Tim James is at 25, and only 700 back from Bentley. Roy Moore's at 20. Good thing or bad thing? (Byrne is probably the toughest GOP opponent for the general, but also the least crazy, as far as actual good governance goes, if he wins the general. Also, would the James and Moore backers go to Bentley in the runoff, helping him to complete the upset?)
11:39pm: Man, even if you thought that Artur Davis would lose tonight, I don't think that him losing by over 20 points was on anyone's mind.
11:29pm: The AP has called the MS-01 primary for state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, who narrowly avoided a runoff with 51% of the vote. Nunnelee faces Travis Childers and his mighty 'stache of doom in November.
11:27pm: The D AL-07 primary is a great horserace too. Right now Smoot and Sewell are both at 32, with Hilliard at 28. Smoot's edge is 300 votes over Sewell. With about three-quarters reporting, Hilliard is back another 2,000, so making the runoff is looking less likely.
11:22pm: The R primary in AL-Gov just keeps being the most exciting race of the night. With 2057 of 2843 in (72%), it's James at 26, Byrne at 25, and Bentley at 25. James up 2,000 over Byrne, who in turn is up 300 over Bentley. Hangin' judge Roy Moore not that far back at 21%.
11:20pm: Looks like the polls were right about AL-AG, at least. Challenger Luther Strange is whomping troubled incumbent Troy King in the GOP primary, 61-39.
11:16pm: Only county outstanding in MS-01, which will tell us whether Nunnelee clears 50%, is Clay County. That's only one county over from the county where Eupora (the town where Ross was mayor), but with only 14 precincts, I can't see that being the tipping point.
11:11pm: More like the Land of Disenchantment for Allen Weh. He's conceding the R gube primary in New Mexico, after spending $1.6 mil on it.
11:09pm: The SSP Labs model is calling MS-01 for Nunnelee without runoff (looks like that last-minute Sarah Palin endorsement for McGowen [sic] didn't pay off). And, it's saying AL-02 will come down to Roby/Barber runoff.
11:06pm: This will no doubt change, but at this instant in time, 2 (two) votes separate Tim James (84,497) and Bradley Byrne (84,495) in 1st and 2nd. Bentley is back in 3rd, trailing by 2,000 more. It's 26-26-25, with 1887 of 2843 in.
11:04pm: The AP has called the R primary in NM-Gov for Susana Martinez. She'll face Diane Denish in November.
10:57pm: Based on our model, SSP Labs is feeling confident to call AL-05 without a runoff in favor of Brooks. Griffith's party switch goes down with the Edsel and New Coke in the pantheon of bad ideas.
10:55pm: Pretty much simultaneously, AP calls AL-Gov D primary for Sparks, and Davis concedes. Running to the right doesn't win you a Dem primary, even in Alabama.
10:53pm: Not much change in New Mexico, although we're up to almost one-third reporting. Martinez leads Weh 51-29.
10:50pm: AP calls AL-05 for Steve Raby, who crushed Taze Shepard 62-22.
10:41pm: The people who don't give a rrrrip about Alabama are out in force tonight. Dale Peterson is deep in third at 26%, with a McMillan/Grace runoff likely.
10:37pm: Bradley Byrne just found a bunch of votes. He's up 700 over Tim James, and about 2400 over Bentley with nearly 50% of precincts reporting. Meanwhile, Sparks leads Davis by 65-35.
10:34pm: SSP Labs update: In AL-05, we're projecting brooks with 50.5%, 709 over a runoff. In MS-01, we're projecting Nunnelee to escape a runoff with 51.2% of the vote.
10:30pm: Over in MS-01, with 88% reporting, Alan Nunnelee is still hovering at 51.1% of the vote.
10:29pm: The AP calls AL-06 for Spencer Bachus. Wasn't close at all in the end.
10:23pm: Here's one more bad sign for Artur Davis: Macon County, which is 84% black, is now all in. Davis only won 47% of the vote there tonight.
10:21pm: Another lead change in AL-07, where it's neck and neck and neck. Shelia Smoot has moved ahead at 34%, with Terri Sewell at 32, and Earl Hilliard Jr. at 27 (and Bozeman a non-factor at 8). But, as we close in on halfway reported, the runoff could be any combination of the 3.
10:19pm: In AL-05, we're projecting Brooks with 50.6%, 764 over a runoff. Keep in mind this is something of a crude model, though. It should be close.
10:18pm: The AP has called the R primary in MS-04 for Steven Palazzo.
10:15pm: Over in the Land of Enchantment, it's a good night for Susana Martinez. She's at 50%, with 101 of 1509 reporting. Allen Weh is in 2nd at 32%. Pete Jr. is at a whopping 6%.
RESULTS:
