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Alabama, Mississippi & New Mexico Results Thread

by: James L.

Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 7:44 PM EDT


10:15pm: Let's move this party over here.
10:08pm: With not quite a quarter in, on the GOP side of the AL-Gov primary, Bentley has actually pulled into the lead at 27%. James is 2nd at 26, with Byrne at 25. Can't quite count Byrne out yet, but that Dem 527 meddling in the GOP primary may have had the desired effect (i.e. taking out Byrne, ostensibly the toughest general election opponent). And Roy Moore's at 18: what's up with his collapse?
10:05pm: We're now up to 48% in AL-05: Brooks leads Griff by 51-34, and Raby leads Taze by 62-23.
10:03pm: As expected, Luther Strange is kicking Alabama AG Troy King's ass by a 60-40 margin.
10:02pm: 70% reporting in MS-01, and Nunnelee is resting at 51.3%.
9:59pm: Over in MS-04, state Rep. Steven Palazzo leads businessman Joe Tegerdine by 58-42 with 59% in.
9:56pm: Hah, Spencer Bachus leads his teabagger opponent, Stan Cooke, by only 59-41 with 13% in. It's a TARP!
9:54pm: We're now up to 37% of precincts reporting in AL-05, and Mo Brooks leads Griffith by 53-31. (Raby still cruising.)
9:51pm: SSP Labs doesn't take an election night off, and here is our model for Alabama. It's based on the usual back-of-the-envelope stuff, but also incorporates the racial composition of each county. (jeffmd)
9:47pm: Checking in with New Mexico, Susana Martinez has a 16-point lead over Allen Weh in the early vote.
9:43pm: 21.5% of the vote's now in in AL-05, and Brooks leads Griffith by 49-38. Raby is up over Taze Shepard by 65-21.
9:41pm: Terri Sewell has now pulled into second place (just 200 votes behind Shelia Smoot) in AL-07, but only 12% of the vote's been counted.
9:39pm: With 11.7% in, Sparks leads by 63-37. On the GOP side, Tim James leads with 28%, followed by Rob Bentley at 26%. Front-runner Bradley Bryne is in third at 23%.
9:35pm: We're up to 41% reporting in MS-01, and Alan Nunnelee is dangerously flirting with a runoff at 49.7%.
9:30pm: Big swing in Jeffco, where Sparks now leads Davis by 54-46. Overall, Sparks is up by 61-39 with 7% in.
9:24pm: Check out AL-07, where the three front-runners are separated by just 170 votes. Smoot has 31, Hilliard's at 30, and Sewell checks in at 27 with 11% reporting.
9:20pm: Almost 10% of Jeffco is in, where Artur Davis is cleaning up. The Gov race has tightend to 60-40 for Sparks. And, in AL-05, Mo Brooks leads Griffith by 58-28 with 8 precincts in.
9:11pm: It looks like Dick Shelby will survive an attempted teabagging from Clint Moser.
9:08pm: We're now at 4/326 in AL-05, and Brooks has pulled ahead of Griffith by 48-36. Whoa baby!
9:03pm: Over in AL-05, with just three precincts in, turncoat Parker Griffith has fallen just barely under 50%. Mo Brooks has 33%.
9:00pm: Alan Nunnelee is now flirting with 50%. He leads Ross by 51-37. McGlowan is a huge non-factor here.
8:44pm: We also have our first precinct reporting in MS-01, and Alan Nunnelee has 56% to teabagger Henry Ross' 26%. Sarah Palin's late pick, Angela McGlowan, is in third.
8:41pm: 9/2843 in so far, and Sparks leads Davis by 73-27. On the GOP side, it looks like a three-way fight for second place between Tim James, Robert Bentley, and Roy Moore.
8:36pm: Now Barber is up on Roby by two votes. In AL-05, Parker Griffith has 62% of the very early vote.
8:23pm: In the AL-02 primary, teabagging businessman Rick "The Barber" Barber only trails NRCC-crowned favorite Martha Roby by 40-37. Just three precincts in there so far, though.
8:20pm: We're up to three precincts in Alabamer, and Sparks leads by a 71-29 spread. Over in the Ag Comm'r primary, American Hero Dale Peterson is in third.
8:09pm: We've got one precinct out of the oven in Alabama. Sparks leads Davis by 12 votes to 5.


Polls will close in Alabama and Mississippi in about fifteen minutes, and in New Mexico an hour later. We'll be using this thread to follow the returns -- and if you have any additional results links, please share 'em in the comments.

RESULTS:

James L. :: Alabama, Mississippi & New Mexico Results Thread
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Hey we got some absentees!
Sparks leads 12-5.

Live News
WSFA in Montgomery is running both a live blog and live video feed.

http://www.wsfa.com/


Thanks for the link.
Watching the returns on local TV always makes it more fun

[ Parent ]
who is robert bentley?
and why is he currently in second?

He's a conservative state senator
Tuscaloosa, apparently

[ Parent ]
My bad, he's a state rep.


[ Parent ]
Am I right to assume
Montgomery and Mobile will come in late giving Davis a boost?

Watch
Western Alabama for Davis's strength. That is his district after all.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
AL State Rep. race
There's a rather unfortunate race in the Democratic primary in District 68.  Two guys, including the incumbent, both with the name Thomas Jackson are running against each other.  State house races are toss-up affairs in the first place, having the same name as the incumbent has got to increase his chances.  

is either one of them known as 'stonewall' ?
so sorry(could not resist)

[ Parent ]
that politico interactive map
is great

Precincts so far
don't give a rip about Alabama.  

Nothing but thugs and criminals so far, wait for the real Alabamas to speak up.


Do we know....
If there have been any write-in votes for Dale Peterson's horse?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Griffith
with 62% of the vote. I hope that doesn't continue long.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Is it wrong....
...that the guy I most want to win tonight is Dale Peterson?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

That has gotta be wrong
I think they mixed up the column headers there.

[ Parent ]
???
Must be a mistake.  The gap is too large.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
LOL. We all have the same reaction.
Something is up. We'll see when the AP's numbers catch up.

[ Parent ]
Why are AP and Politico so slooow?
And I hope ya'll are right.  

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure, but Nunnelee is from Lee County
And him not winning it, it's just not believable.

[ Parent ]
Those numbers make no sense
I was gonna say perhaps the names are misplaced, but even so, it's a virtual tie for first, which would be flabbergasting.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
does anyone know how much money bentley spent?
he seems to have a pretty good grassroots thing going here

Martinez in last
with 1 vote. Not a good precint for her!

As a New Mexican
Susana Martinez is by far the best candidate that the GOP could put up.  I think she has at least a 50/50 chance of beating Denish.

[ Parent ]
She surged
Just 1 bad precinct. NM is fast! They need to teach Alabama a lesson!

[ Parent ]
Ooh, Parker Griffith is losing Madison County big time.
(WITH 7 OF 94 PRECINCTS COUNTED 7.45%)
MO BROOKS  - 1,509 (57.25%)
PARKER GRIFFITH  - (28.00%)
LES PHILLIP - 389 (14.76%)

http://www.co.madison.al.us/pr...


the guy running against george wallace
is named YOUNG BOOZER(i am not kidding)

Premature
but could Mo Brooks wrap this up tonight?  How I would love to see that.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Big heapin' helpin' of tasty satisfaction if Griffith loses outright tonight!......
We probably, maybe almost surely, lose the seat in November anyway, but seeing a turncoat go down will be sweeeeeet revenge.

I imagine Republicans might have felt the same about Specter, but their problem is Sestak likely has a better chance of keeping the seat in Democratic hands.

Same not true in AL-05, where the primary winner probably takes it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Didn't finish my thought......
I meant at the end, "where the primary winner probably takes the seat no matter who wins."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Both Raby and Tazewell
have raised serious money, and as I'm sure you know this is historically big time Democratic territory.  But I'm not going to fight you - in a year like this the winner of the Republican primary will have a huge advantage.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Poor
Griffith. No one wants you, go away you POS.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
quality of candidate is always a factor
even in alabama(think bobby bright,gene taylor, chet edwards, etc.)

[ Parent ]
I don't doubt you or spiderdem, but it will take...
...major campaign missteps by the Republican nominee for the Democrat to carry the seat this year.

I don't blame Team Blue players for trying, Raby et al. have to give it a shot, and you never know when fate will smile on you.  After all, we were cleaning up everywhere in 2008 and yet had the bottom drop out in FL-16 just weeks out with Mahoney's sex scandal handing the seat to Rooney.  So it happens, you just gotta be prepared to take advantage.  I applaud our AL-05 candidates for being prepared, assuming they are/will be.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
don't get me wrong here
your premise is a good one BUT put ron sparks at the top of the ticket here and i think you have a competitive race(remember, the nrcc, thanks to michael steele, will be hard pressed to fund 'open' races and if griffith is not the nominee, this eat becomes an OPEN race)

[ Parent ]
I might buy it if Ron Sparks
WAS the nominee, but I think it will be tough.  

[ Parent ]
AL-06
Bachus is looking safe.

In AL-07 Sewell narrowly leads Smoot with Hilliard a bit behind.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


AL-07
Less than 170 votes between the three.

[ Parent ]
Politico
has Sparks up in Jefferson County ...  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Actually
Politico shows Sparks leading 54-46 in JeffCo with 20% in :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


question for james l
which site are you using? politico has SPARKS winning jeffco at about 20% reported

That's now
That was then.

[ Parent ]
Seems like Sparks will walk to victory
According to Politico, he is now up in Jefferson and all over the state, including the Black Belt.  If the careers of Parker Griffith and Artur Davis end tonight, I will be one happy little fucker.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Watch
his district which has not come in yet. The only county, which has, (Tuscaloosa), he is winning.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Will it be enough to counter
The rest of the state though.

[ Parent ]
actually
Jefferson Co (Birmingham) is largely in AL-07 but it's unclear whether the JeffCo parts that have reported are mostly the AL-06 parts (which should go for Sparks) or the AL-07 parts.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
i luv ya man
and hope you are correct BUT it is way too early

[ Parent ]
None of the African-American-heavy districts have reported yet
Once they do, this race will tighten.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Montgomery County
is still out.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Macon is in
and Sparks is romping.  Choctaw is heavily AA too and Sparks is winning there too.  Don't want to call the race yet but this looks VERY good for Sparks.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
But will that be enough?
Davis will likely win the black vote but alot of black political establishment is backing Sparks because of Davis's votes against Health Care reform and others, so I don't think its going to save him as much as it would otherwise for the typical African American politician.

[ Parent ]
Don't assume that at all. Remember Davis turned his back on the first black President's priorities......
I think black voters in Alabama probably are paying attention to Davis going against Obama, and that's not what black voters want, in Alabama or anywhere else.

And black voters vote for white candidates over black ones all the time.  Granted, it's almost always a white Democrat against a black Republican when that happens, but voters are adults and know what they're doing, and as I commented in another diary today, identity voting is exaggerated.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Mo Brooks is cleaning house in Madison County
Which is Griffith's home county.

http://www.co.madison.al.us/pr...


In fairness
It's also Mo Brooks' home county, where he's a county commissioner.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
robert bentley is winning


Only 7 percent though
Anything could happen.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
agreed BUT
he has clearly run a strong grassroots effort here; i am very curious about bentley's money spent vis-a-vis the other better 'known' guys(basically a dollar/vote ratio here might show us something)

[ Parent ]
Things look really good for Sparks
He's getting a substantial amount of the black vote.  For example, using the Politico numbers, Macon County has reported a third of it's vote, and Sparks is at almost 60%.  Macon County is 85% black, and home to Tuskegee University.  If this comes anywhere near close to holding throughout the state, he's going to win.

Yeah
and he's now winning Tuscaloosa (Davis' district), is up in JeffCO as well.

Davis is winning two counties.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
Limestone County is fully in
it's in the north of the state (AL-05), heavily white, so probably not a Davis stronghold, but Sparks' 70-30 win there is still impressive. Things are looking good for him, esp. since Davis isn't getting the numbers he needs in Birmingham to counter Sparks' huge margins in counties such as Limestone.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yes it is.
I've never heard of black democrats backing a white democrat against one of their own in a southern primary before, but I guess Davis' conservative voting record in preparation for the gubernatorial general election is backfiring on him for the primary.

[ Parent ]
The only recent example I can think of
is Steve Cohen in Memphis.

[ Parent ]
Davis played for the Hail Mary
that was a matchup with Roy Moore where he felt that he could win as a conservative Democrat.  Davis assumed that the primary was a slam dunk and ignored his base.

It kind of reminds me of Hillary Clinton in late 2007.


[ Parent ]
In defense of Davis, I don't think he saw the primary as a slam dunk......
Davis was in a lose-lose situation.  He's a black man in Alabama, and catering to the base to win the primary guarantees his defeat in November; Alabama is toooo conservative to allow that almost certainly from a white Democrat, and, with racism buried from public view but far from dead, certainly coming from a black Democrat.  He doesn't want to be the next Cleo Fields, the state's first major party black gubernatorial nominee who goes on to lose in November by 25 points.

Davis played it correct strategically.  He was always better off going conservaDem, hoping to appeal to the required share of white voters and still hold the black vote on the basis he'd be the state's first black Democratic Governor.

Now, yes, he hurt his reputation with the Democratic base in and out of Alabama, and he didn't make many friends in the House Democratic Caucus.  But he was just one House vote, he ultimately didn't kill anything we wanted passed, and if he pulled off the miracle and got elected Governor of Alabama in November we'd all be celebrating him, conservaDem or not.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
If I were Davis
I would have seen the 2008 election results, realized that it was unlikely that any Democrat, let alone a black Democrat was going to win the Alabama Governorship and stayed in my House seat.  

The one possible exception being if Roy Moore won the GOP primary (which was a long shot at best once it got to a runoff).  And that is what left the door ajar, IMO.  A "conservadem" Davis could beat Moore.  


[ Parent ]
"Stayed in my House seat" is same as staying in the back of the bus......
Davis is a legitimate Congressman in a segregated district, he had a chance to break barriers in a tough state and do something historic.  I don't blame him at all.  Politicians hate to lose and often will pass on a tough race to hold on to the bird in the hand, but the flip side argument is that YOU ONLY LIVE ONCE.  Davis could be "just another" black Congressman from a Southern majority black district, or he could break the mold and accomplish something that makes him much more than that.

And if he loses, so what?  He's got no less a legacy for serving as a Congressman for one or two or three fewer terms than he did.  There's life outside politics, and he can move on knowing he tried his damndest.  Or he could still even re-enter the arena in the future if opportunity arises, however a longshot it might be.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Nunnellee right at 50% now.
Childers could use a run-off here.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Yeah Macon is a key indicator here
If Davis is losing the AA vote outside of his district it really doesn't matter what happens inside his district given he's losing majority white counties 3-1 throughout the state as well.  This one's basically over.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

Polls were all way off on this one.
I suspect Sparks will be in the high 50's at least.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Marengo is also very damning
Davis is losing Marengo County as well which is a heavily AA county INSIDE his district which went for Obama in 2008. Sparks should win by at least 15 points.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

[ Parent ]
Unless
Davis can win Selma & Montgomery by a big margin, I'd agree. I'm surprised he's leaving AL-07.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Mo Brooks back under 50%
Something just moved for Griffith pretty big.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

It would be
great if Griffith could lose tonight. That along with a runoff in MS-01, and Davis losing. Not a bad night.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
AL-01: Jo Bonner beats Some Dude opponent
um, yay?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Teabagger Cooke making a big run
in AL-06 - now 59-41.  I imagine he'll still come up short.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

young boozer
is winning big

We're losing sight of the real story of the night
John McMillan = Crooks = 38%
Dorman Grace = Thugs = 35%
Dale Peterson = Gives a Rip = 27%

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
true
come on dale; 'get that horse MOVIN' !!(but you gotta luv the name YOUNG BOOZER)

[ Parent ]
Disappointed over Dale Peterson's Performance.
To be granted, he is doing very well for a first time political novice, but it seems that his kick-ass ad was more of a hit nationally than it was in Alabama. I'm not sure about how high of a profile Agricultural commissioner is in Alabama, but I guess his two opponents are political veterans with higher recognition among voters. Peterson could have a chance if he made it to the runoff but it looks like hes is isn't even going to go that far, and Alabama Republican voters will be forced to choose between a thug and a criminal!

[ Parent ]
ron sparks is currently ag commish
it has some pull

[ Parent ]
Ack!
63% in (MS-01), Nunnelee's up to 52%. go back down! so close to a runoff!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Why
is King losing?  Do the baggers have some beef with him or what am I missing?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

the entire power structure
of the state party backed his oppo

[ Parent ]
Why?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I heard gay rumors about King
Read about gay rumors, nothing proven.

[ Parent ]
Gambling
I think part of it had to do with gambling.

[ Parent ]
Wiki says that he and Gov
got in a fight over gambling. No idea why he's going down other than that.  

[ Parent ]
sparks having run statewide before
is really paying off

Great Choice
soon to be ex rep Griffith. How did he not see this coming? He could have won as a Democrat as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Sure he would not lose in the primaries running as dem

P Griffith will have a impressive record as US house representative.

[ Parent ]
Seriously
his party switch came out of almost nowhere. I'm thinking when he was saying Pelosi should be tossed in the nut house Pelosi sent out her lieutenants to tell Griffith to tone it down or else. And Griffith probably gave them the finger and told them he's switching parties.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
It'll be even sweeter, and helpful in the future, if Bobby Bright wins in November......
Bright is a conservaDem as much as anyone, but he's no turncoat, and I don't recall him vocally bashing Pelosi or any other fellow Dems.  He goes ahead and votes as his district wants him to and otherwise tries to make good as a Democrat where it's tough to be one.

If Bright wins this November, that gives us a lot of material for any future potential party-switchers.  Griffith switched and got whacked, Bright stayed true and still survived in a bad Democratic year.

The Rethugs have really changed in 16 years, and that helps us.  This is yet one more data point where the teabaggers are hurting their party long-term......and make no mistake, the Republicans are THEIR party, always were, always will be, no matter how much they try to distance themselves from the party establishment.  We lost party switchers in 1994, but rank-and-file conservatives and Republicans embraced them wholeheartedly and voted for them as Republicans.  Times have changed, and they won't do that anymore.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
AL-07
Looking good for us in the Smoot camp

The numbers from Jeff Co are behind


Sewell now narrowly in 3rd
Imagine if we got a Smoot-Hilliard runoff!

[ Parent ]
Would be a great result


[ Parent ]
congrats
run-offs are all about gotv of your primary supporters

[ Parent ]
Troy King losing too... 40%-60%

One more Attorney General losing.

Projection Models
Can anyone shed some light on what exactly goes into the projection models SSP generally uses?

pete domenici jr
is in david paterson territory

Turnout numbers are horrible fo Dems in Ala
Lot more votes in the Republican primary than the Democratic Primary.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Alabama is one place where that doesn't bother me at all......
We should expect this to be a bad year for us in any state that our President lost by a blowout margin 2 years earlier.  Obama's victory by itself might have guaranteed a bad year in the Deep South, Appalachia, and the Ozarks.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Choctaw County in the west is now in
it's in AL-07, Davis only won is 52-48. Not enough to cancel out Sparks' huge margins elsewhere. Davis is toast.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


MS-04 called for
Enrico ... I mean Steve Palazzo.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Roy Moore's performance
is the biggest disappointment of the night.  His nomination would make AL-Gov a tossup.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


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