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June Elections Calendar

by: James L.

Mon May 31, 2010 at 1:57 PM EDT


May was manna from heaven for elections junkies, with some truly exciting primary and special elections to watch. June is shaping up to be a pretty respectable sequel. We've identified as many noteworthy races as we can think of in the following chart, but if there's anything we're missing, please let us know in the comments!

Get ready to shake some action.

P.S. SSP's complete primary calendar is available here.

James L. :: June Elections Calendar
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PG
Parker Griffith loses tomorrow :)

22, male, VA-10

I'd be surprised
I would imagine a runoff with him and someone else (probably Mo Brooks?) but it'll be interesting to see what % he gets and if he places in first. if by some chance he places in 3rd, even better!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I agree about the runoff.
Its very unlikely that Griffith will all out lose tomorrow. Rather I think he will get first place by around 35%-45% of the vote and then loses the runoff election by a wide margin as his opponent would then be able to considerate all of the anti-Griffith vote in a 1 versus 1 (which is huge as the local GOP Alabaman establishment in his district despises him).

[ Parent ]
Im not sure

I think P Grifith is not safe tomorrow. He is not enough strong for make think to the primary voters what the republicans can not with this race without him.


[ Parent ]
From Alabama I think is interesting too the republican primary for LG

With Ivey and a state senator.

[ Parent ]
A few for California should be added
CA-11, CA-19, Lt. Gov, and AG.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



CA-11 is there.
You're right about CA-19 -- completely forgot about that one!

[ Parent ]
I'm haveing a hell of a time choosing picking the AG in the dem primary
I wish Brown would have endorsed someone :(

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
CA Insurance Commissioner is another one
  There haven't been any great ads like the AL-Ag Comm, but this is another important race for the Golden State because the office is important and all the lesser statewide offices serve as a bench for Gov, Sen and AG races in the future. Both the Democratic candidates are pretty good. Like almost all statewide candidates they are termed-out legislators, these are Assemblymembers Hector de la Torre (D-South Gate, a city in L.A County) and Dave Jones (D-Sacramento). Jones has a bit more money and more endorsements so he is the likelier winner.

  The Attorney General race is a crowded field on the Democratic side, with a trio of Assemblymembers (Nava, Lieu and Torrico), the D.A. from San Francisco (Kamala Harris), and a rich self-funder (Chris Kelly, the attorney for Facebook) and a disgraced former City Attorney of L.A. (Rocky Delgadillo, why the hell is he running?). On the GOP side there are some dudes plus Steve Cooley, the L.A. County District Attorney, whose moderate profile and votegetting abilities make him the one Repub that could win the general election. I hope one of the more conventional GOPpies wins that primary...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
The
AG race on the Democrat's side is really between Kamala Harris and Chris Kelly. I've seen an handful of Chris Kelly ads and none of Kamala Harris'. The LG race is dead, unless you have been reading the news closely, you wouldn't even know that Gavin Newsom and Janice Hahn are running for LG. And Dave Jones has the upper hand since he's been airing ads that I've seen and he has the endorsement of the California Democratic Party.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I've also found a few primaries to watch in the State Assembly races.
Not much drama in the State Senate.

AD-30 (D) - The Parra/Florez feud continues, with Nicole's dad Pete Parra facing off against Dean's mom Fran Florez, who lost to Danny Gilmore. (A bit surprised Gilmore is not running; maybe he just didn't expect to become Assemblyman and didn't like being one.)

AD-36 (D) - Linda Jones, who ran here in 2008, faces primary opposition from real estate broker Maggie Campbell and police officer Shawntrice Watkins. This time I am rooting for Watkins, because this Antelope Valley-centric district is very law-and-order, being the home of the Runners (Sharon and George, of "Jessica's Law" fame), and incumbent Steve Knight also having been a police officer before being elected to the Assembly. Watkins could cut into Knight's law-and-order advantage.

AD-43 (D) - A shame Nayiri Nahabedian ran a vicious campaign in the special primary. I would have liked to see her in the Assembly. I am not sure she will fare better in the actual primary.

AD-68 (D) and (R) - I am really looking forward to an all-Vietnamese matchup here. Will be interesting to gauge the Vietnamese vote if it's Phu Nguyen (D) vs. Long Pham (R).

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
AD-30, AD-43
   The Parra-Florez feud is the San Joaquin Valley version of the Hatfields and McCoys (though at least the skirmishes involve ballots not bullets.) I read somewhere that Gilmore just didn't like being an Assemblymember, which is not such an unreasonable position, so he stood down.

  As far as AD-43, my understanding is that Nayiri is not actively campaigning at this point. I have friends that were for her and nobody has asked me to give money or walk precincts or anything for her since the special election. I liked her better in the special election but she will have to wait for the seat to open up again. This is not unprecedented; in 2000 Dario Frommer won that seat in a primary over Paul Krekorian, six years later after Dario was termed out Paul got the seat.  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
Can I ask?
Who you decided on for AG & Ins. Comm.?

I was going to vote for Harris for AG, because hey, liberal black lady, but that was before I found out Cooley was running and I feel like she'd get beaten by him. So I think I'm gonna go with Ted Lieu, even though he's run as more of a centrist than I'd like, he was a good state rep (my former state rep, actually). But does somebody else have a better chance against Harris in the primary that also has a good shot for the general? (the only one I won't vote for is Kelly)

And I have no idea on Ins. Comm. Suggestions for a tactical voter?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
I have seen most of the candidates at forums
  For AG the one I liked best was Pedro Nava, followed by Albert Torrico and Ted Lieu (all are termed-out Assemblymembers). I haven't seen Harris or heard much about her though she is supposed to be the frontrunner. I didn't get a good feeling from Kelly, but I'd rather have him than Delgadillo, who must be delusional about his prospects of success. I haven't filled out my ballot yet and will probably wait until the last minute to decide. (I walk my absentee ballot to a polling place; this saves postage and I know the elections people get them on time.)

  I like both Insurance Commissioner candidates; at first I was leaning towards Hector because he is a Southerner and Latino in a Democratic slate otherwise led by Northern CA Anglo dudes. I have a friend who is working for Hector also. At the Democratic Party of the SFV event where I saw lots of candidates I would say that Jones gave a stronger presentation; he is more fiery and charismatic and maybe somewhat more hardcore progressive. He has the cooler nickname; my friends and I call him "Bowie" after the David Jones who changed his name early in his music career. Either is a strong favorite to win the general election. The only real chances the GOP has for victory are Gov, Lt Gov (if Maldo survives his primary) and AG if Cooley is the nominee.

   You didn't ask but I'll say that I support Janice Hahn for Lt Gov; she seems serious about wanting the job and what she would do as Lt Gov while Gavin Newsom has always rubbed me the wrong way. Gavin is all ambition and way too slick (not just the hair goo). When half of your hometown supporters are doing it just to get you out of the Mayor's office something is wrong. He also may be likely to have more Bill Clinton problems; I am no prude but banging the wife of your campaign manager (which Newsom was doing at one point) is just not a good thing.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
Thanks!
There is no way in hell I'm putting Facebook's privacy lawyer (didja know they had one? Apparently!) in at AG. And btw, I like my California slates to be balanced, too...and there do seem to be a lot of Bay Area white dudes on the Dem slate this year. Still, there's Debra Bowen at SoS and John Chiang at Controller who seem likely to get re-elected, yes? Lockyer's a lock for another Treas. term, right? Any statewide offices we forgot?

Do you think Nava can win? I would vote for any of the assemblymembers, and I'm cool with Nava. I just don't want Kelly and I'm worried about Harris's chances against Cooley.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
I doubt that Nava or Lieu can win
  I haven't seen any polling on the race lately. I would rather have Harris than Kelly so maybe that is it. I only worry about the GOP if they nominate Cooley. It is hard to figure out which is the best vote sometimes.  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Harris
has some huge negatives and has been hit by some bad press that'll haunt her in the general election. Read this article for more info:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

Kelly comes from Facebook which has been intruding on its user privacy lately. Harris calls him the "Mini Meg" which is fair because the only reason why he's made it into a race between him and Harris is because he can self fund.

By the way, who do you want for lieutenant governor? Myself I don't like Newsom but I don't know much about Janice Hahn, she seems like another dynasty politician trying to capitalize on her last name. Though I guess what we California Democrats should be hoping is that Maldonado gets teabagged in his primary.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Interesting opinion
 I'm probably still sticking with Harris. The main reason is that Kelly and her are the only two candidates who have a strong shot at winning. I do not like Kelly for a few reasons: I know someone who met him and said Kelly is not a nice guy personally. Of course, there is all the privacy stuff on facebook. Also, I would like to see how much attorney experience he actually has.

As for Harris, I do not know how big the death penalty issue will be and as the article said, other Attorney Generals have been against the Government's right to kill prisoners. Also, contrary to Kelly, she has done well with crime. She raised the overall felony and drug conviction rate since she has been in office. She's also doubled the rate of conviction in felony trials with guns. If they call her weak on crime, she can say how she closed loopholes that allowed drug dealers to escape prosecution.

Besides these reasons, I like her Harris because she is pretty liberal. She should win because I see her benefiting from high Bay Area turnout but I do think we need some LA candidate to run to increase turnout there. Also, I like Harris because she is from San Francisco and I'm from the Bay Area so I guess I'm influenced by hometown too.

As for Lieutenant Governor, I am going with Newsom. I met him twice and he was very impressive. No one talks about the scandal anymore. I also want him to have a launching point for statewide politics (possibly  Dianne Feinstein's seat in 2012) and Lieutenant Governor is a good place for that. As with Hahn, I do not think she can win if her hometown paper endorsed Newsom. She comes from a prominent family down there and if she cannot get the paper to support her...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Oh, as for LG
I didn't ask about LG because I know I'm going with Newsom. Why does everyone hate on him? Sure, he's tall and slick and good-looking and well-spoken but WTF? He's a politician. It's like hating an accountant for being good at math. His record in San Francisco, I think, is on the whole excellent. Pragmatic and sensible, pro-business without being anti-people. And sure, for San Francisco, he's practically a conservative. But that still makes him a pretty solid lefty.

As for his affair, let's hope that now that he has a new wife and baby, he will settle down and not put his lil Gavin where it doesn't belong. He's had his one scandal mulligan and doesn't get another one, at least from me. Plus, he'd be a good guy to fill Brown's place, just in case--centrist-y, but liberal enough to get some good progressive things done.

But really, it's LG-- there's not much else for the LG to do except smiling at ribbon-cuttings...and Newsom is excellent at that. If he runs for Governor in 4 or 8 years, I will re-evaluate, but for now, for LG, I'm on Team Newsom.

I certainly won't be that upset if Hahn wins, though, she seems competent and her record in LA is fine, if not particularly impressive.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
reasonable folks can disagree on this.
   part of my support of Hahn is because she has come to club meetings and we have had a chance to ask her questions directly. The LG does sit on many important state boards like the State Lands Commission and the Regents of the University of CA so it is not all just ribbon-cutting. I will be happy as long as we don't get stuck with a full term of Abel "slightly more moderate than his brother Cain" Maldonado. Now he is a real worthless opportunist...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
That's a good point
Reasonable folks can disagree-that's why we're Democrats. ;) And you're right, the LG does have some power. Which is why I will happily vote for Hahn if she gets the nom. And I'd assume you're saying if Newsom wins the primary you'll vote his way, yes? Because I couldn't agree more that Maldonado really is a world-class opportunist: he makes Charlie Crist look like Jimmy Stewart in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Hopefully
the right wingers will take care of him in the GOP primary.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Gavin over Maldo for sure
   The differences between the Democrats are much smaller than those between them and the Greedy Old Party. I wouldn't be too surprised if the Repubs go with Aanestad rather than their Ahhnold-appointed pseudo-incumbent. Should be interesting.

   For just pure entertainment you have to look at the GOP primary for CA Secretary of State. The incumbent in  this office is Debra Bowen who is running for reelection unopposed in the Democratic primary. She is a great SoS and should easily win again. The Repubs have two candidates competing for the chance to lose to Bowen. The mainstream GOP candidate is a rich businessman/retired football player who had never voted before two years ago (and he wants to run the elections?). The insurgent tea partier candidate is none other than Orly Taitz, the famous "birther" lawyer/dentist/crazy person. If she won maybe she would try to keep the "foreign" President Obama off the ballot. Not gonna happen...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
If Gavin wins
Do you think it's more likely that he runs in 2012 (when Feinstein will likely retire) or 2014 (when Brown retires)?

Personally, I think that the former is probably a safer deal for him, given that he'll likely land Feinstein's endorsement.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


[ Parent ]
Newsom's reputation makes 2012 out of the question
If he just turns around and runs for Senate, his lightweightness will kill him.

He has one chance at a long career... win LG, then wait for Brown in eight (or four) years, or Boxer/Carly in six.  Both choices would be sensible for him, whereas 2012 would be pitiful.


[ Parent ]
GA-09
fitchfan28 points out in the Daily Digest that the GA-09 special is on June 20, not June 8. : )

Er.
Apologies - July 20th.

[ Parent ]
Really?
I've seen a number of references to June 8, including CQ and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. I can't find anything explicit on that SoS link...

Even the AP agrees with us.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, this should clear up the confusion
Per the AJC:

Graves is running against former state Sen. Lee Hawkins to fill the unexpired term of former U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal, who resigned to focus on his gubernatorial campaign. Regardless of who wins in their June 8 runoff, both are preparing to compete in the July 20 GOP primary for the next term in office.


[ Parent ]
Yep
Both campaign websites state the run-off is on the 8th as does the SOS's site in the press releases section.

[ Parent ]
On June 22nd
 There is the special election in the CA-15 State Senate seat. It is John Laird (D) vs. Sam Blakesee (R). This seat is a big pickup opportunity for the Democrats.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


SD-15 is big for getting towards 2/3 in the Senate
   Under California's crazy constitution you need two thirds of the Lege to pass a budget or raise taxes. If we win this seat and one other one nearby (SD-12) the Dems will have 2/3 in that side of the Capitol. The Assembly is still a few seats short, though.

   Also our candidate, John Laird, is excellent. He served six years in the Assembly rising to chair of the Budget committee. He is an expert on water issues and a strong progressive on various issues. He was also one of the first two (along with Mark Leno) openly gay men to be elected to the Assembly, so he is a strong supporter of civil rights for all Californians.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
Laird
 Has also been strongly against oil drilling long before the spill. His opponent, Sam Blakesee has always been for oil drilling and is still for it.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
ND-AL(R)
should be added

No primary
The ND GOP nominated Rick Berg, and his opponents honored that.

[ Parent ]
SD-AL (R) is interesting tho
An incumbent SoS who happens to be a birther vs two state reps, and a run-off

[ Parent ]
IA-5 (D) as well
If James had to add every primary he would be here for hours.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


Yea
Seems to me like it'd have been easier to just list the states with Primaries for the month, name it "June Primary Open Thread" or something, and have everyone discuss possible races relevant to SSP.

[ Parent ]
Freudian slip?
The "R" next to AL-5 isn't red like the other letters. A sly jab at Parker Griffith?

AL-Ag. Com
Peterson will win, because no one else gives a RRRRRRip about Alabama!

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

LOL!
If he does win he should get some kind of award for best commercial ever.

From what I understand of the race Peterson came from out of the blue. The very fact we know who he is and are talking about it is a testament to that ad. If he wins I think we will see a lot more far out there ads like that in the future with the hope that they go viral like Peterson's ad did.

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[ Parent ]
Seriously all my friends are in awe of the video
It's seriously the most hilarious video that we've seen. It's SUCH A GREAT ad.

[ Parent ]
I completely agree!
All i know about Peterson is from that ad, but if it wasn't for that R next to his name, I'd probably end up voting for him (and if I was from Alabama).

It hits all the right nerves.

-I'm a normal guy
-"Thugs and Criminals" are keeping you down
-Some numbers to show why you need to care
-You are not happy with the results, and neither am I
-My opponent will just be more of the same, I am your employee.

It's super populist and has the kind of imagery, that while I am a liberal, I am also a Texan that appeals to me. The horse is good, the ranch is good, the gun is a WINCHESTER, not just any gun, perfect imagery. It is the kind of anger I think that can appeal to all sides, coming form a sense of government should be more responsive as opposed to "government sucks, let's hurt it!"

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
UT-2
There is no R primary in UT-2, as Morgan Philpot won the nomination at the Republican Convention.  There is only a D primary between Rep. Jim Matheson and challenger Claudia Wright.  There has been much speculation that Republicans in the district may be tempted to vote for Wright in the D primary in hopes of enhancing Philpot's chances in November.  However, the R Senate primary should minimize the effect of any such inter-party crossover.

I doubt Wright has a chance anyway
if she lost by 10 points at the convention, how would she do in a primary with an assumedly less liberal electorate?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
You need money to win
A lot of House members have been winning primaries by surprisingly close margins, but to actually win a primary, a challenger needs to have money. Wright has raised all of $9k. She'll probably get into the 30s, but no farther.

[ Parent ]
The Chicken Woman vrs. .44 magnum Scientology
The is the most amusing primary I have seen in a good long time.  We have the infamous Chicken Chick from Bartertown riding around in the 100k motor home that she now leases.  Opposite her we have the darling of the right wing gun nuts sitting under an umbrella with a picture of L. Ron Hubbard on it.  This is almost too good to be true. There is a third candidate, Danny Tarkanian, but he does not seem to be moving ahead like one would think considering his opposition.  Even with the endorsement of Glem Beck he is still trailing the two aforemention nut cases.  But things could still change, I expect Lowden's anti-Scientology ad to have an impact.  But can the former UNLV basketball star go the distance?  He has a poor track record in seeking elective office.  I would love to hear what others think, esp. about the ad I mentioned. -Rollo Weems

Rollo "Rob" Weems

Yeah, I actually think Tarkanian might pull it out
No matter what, I see a virtual three-way tie here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I sure hope Tark doesn't get the nomination
   He could act5ually beat Reid. I doubt that teh chicken lady or prison massage lady could do it.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
The Chicken Lady
I am not convinced Chicken Lady cannot beat Reid.  Reid has horrible numbers regardless.  He might be the 2010 Santorum:  the candidate that can lose to anyone.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I
wouldn't say Reid is the Santorum of this year. Now Blanche Lincoln is the Santorum of this year, and she'll probably lose to Bill Halter in a few weeks. Remember Bob Casey Jr. didn't suggest using chickens to barter for health care or suggested that prisoners should get taxpayer funded massages or took a photo of himself holding a gun and calling it "Dirty Rick hand cannon." Lowden and Angle are not ready for prime time, and that maybe Reid's saving grace. Angle would be a hilarious gaffe machine for sure. Maybe she'll declare her undying love for Tom Cruise....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Dirty Rick?
Dirty Harry, sir. Clint Eastwood is sad now.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I think the three are enough bad for save Reid

H Reid is improving in the last polls. The worse result for him in the last three not-Rasmussen polls is -4%.

I think S Angle will win the republican primary and maybe by decent margin. She lost very narrowly against D Heller in 2006, when D Heller was Secretary of State and S Angle only a state representative. S Angle knows when run and like run republican primaries. I'm surprised. She is so crazy but not more than many republican voters. S Lowden is imploding fast and D Tarkanian loses traction too. I think if S Lowden and D Tarkanian are vulnerable against S Angle, they are not able for defeat H Reid.


[ Parent ]
a few D primaries in Iowa too
We have three Democrats running in IA-Sen. I expect Roxanne Conlin to win easily (although strangely, the Des Moines Register just endorsed Tom Fiegen).

Two Democrats are running against Steve King in IA-05. Mike Denklau has several endorsements from well-known Democrats in the district, like former Congressman Berkley Bedell and retiring State Representative Roger Wendt. Also, Ed Fallon is backing Denklau. Former Harkin staffer Matt Campbell has some labor endorsements. Campbell seems to have more of a base in the Sioux City area, Denklau in Council Bluffs. I have no clue who is positioned to win the primary.

A few Iowa House Democrats are facing primary challengers. In a couple of cases, one of the candidates dropped out of the race, but his name will remain on the ballot (true for one district in the Iowa City area and another in Waterloo).

The most significant contested Iowa House Democratic primary is House district 66 in Des Moines. This is Ed Fallon's old seat, a heavily D area which has been represented by community activist Ako Abdul-Samad for two terms. An anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage Baptist minister is running against Ako in the primary. I think Ako will win but it's really important to GOTV for this race. We do not need a social conservative representing one of the most Democratic districts in Iowa.

There are lots of contested primaries on the Republican side: two guys running for state treasurer, three for secretary of state, lots of Iowa House and Senate districts with multiple Republican candidates. I am hoping for a few tea party primary victories, which should help our candidates in November. One good example is conservative leaning Iowa House district 8. The long-serving Democrat is retiring. This district really "should" go Republican, but  


Oh yes
to all my fellow Californians here, the Sacramento Bee has compiled all the fund raising reports up to May 22nd for the down ballot candidates and placed them in a Google spreadsheet.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

https://spreadsheets.google.co...

A couple of points:

1) Debra Bowen only 67k on hand, a little worry some for an incumbent when compared to Treasurer Lockyer who has over 8.6 million on hand, Controller Chiang with 1.1 million on hand. (Abel Maldonado doesn't really count that much because he's only be lieutenant governor for a few months but if your wondering his COH is pretty bad too.)
2) Kamala Harris has more COH than Chris Kelly for the final stretch, but that's rendered moot since Kelly can do a Meg Whitman and write himself a check when he needs too. But Harris has enough to at least hit back when Kelly attacks her over the airwaves.
3) Dave Jones going for broke?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Great find, thanks!


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Thanks!
Very useful for a California elections geek, that I proudly call myself! :D

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I wonder if Rasmussen will poll any of these?
Obviously he will just not right before each election. Mark Blumenthal takes this fact on in his latest National Journal column.

http://www.nationaljournal.com...

Not sure I buy the arguments he got in response from Scott. When polling so often why not poll on the eve of the actual voting? Can anybody find evidence from 2006 and 2008 that he is telling porkies?



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