PPP was an outlier

Campbell has performed better against Boxer in most polls.  

I think what these numbers reflect are... Carly's moderately negative ads promote her while tearing down Boxer.  This lessens Boxer's numbers against Campbell, but does little to help her numbers.  

At the same time, the far higher profile has vaulted her way ahead of Campbell... but this support is as squishy and thin as support can get -- many of these people would be supporting Campbell if they had seen commercials by him instead.

If Campbell has the money for commercials the last five days, he could have a shot, but lets hope note.  Carly is at her peak right now (zilch negative ads aimed at her lame resume) and has no real shot against Boxer.

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by: tommypaine @ Mon May 31, 2010 at 21:05:05 PM UTC

Prop 14 with a big lead.

Prop 14 (Top Two primary) is up 52-28. Second recent poll that shows it likely to pass.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

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by: MinnesotaMike @ Mon May 31, 2010 at 22:55:47 PM UTC

Has

there been any polls done on Prop 16 which is basically a power grab by PG&E (our power company in California). I pray that it'll get defeated but I have a bad feeling that it'll pass because Californians are stupid enough to be swayed by $42 million of PG&E money going into tv ads and mailers and there is no organized opposition pushing back.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Mon May 31, 2010 at 23:24:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have not seen any

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

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by: MinnesotaMike @ Mon May 31, 2010 at 23:26:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My parents got a beautiful full color mailer with pictures of sunflowers and windmills

It was full of lies and distortion about the evils of public power, of course.  I wouldn't be surprised if it passed by a large margin.  There is no organized opposition to speak of and if most voters only hear one side of the story they won't make a well informed decision.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 15:11:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

the California polling is very weird

Are these pollsters using very different methodologies? The IA-Gov and IA-Sen polls have been more consistent in terms of which challenger does the best against the incumbent.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 01:08:40 AM UTC

Looking to the poll

Boxer 38
Campbell 45

seems like a mistake, but the report of Greenberg tell that. Would be more logical Boxer 45 Campbell 38 looking to all other results.

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by: abgin @ Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 02:56:32 AM UTC

That was my thought

A switching error like the mods here sometimes make. I mean Campbell usually polls better but not to this degree.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 10:08:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think can be a mistake

I read not all the report of Greenberg but I see not reference to this and this would be sign of something is wrong here. If the report talk not about Campbell leading Boxer as a big result of this poll, surely this can be a mistake.

Would not be the first time what I see mistakes in the reports of polls.

When Campbell was better than Fiorina and DeVore in the polls for the general, he was leading the primaries in the republican side. Would be so logical he down in the general when he loses the lead in the primary.

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by: abgin @ Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 17:52:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Low-info voters & propositions

I talked to my right-leaning centrist, decline-to-state brother, who will be taking a Republican ballot this year primarily so he can vote against Meg Whitman. Mostly, he just wants to screw with Republicans this year, so he'll also now be voting against Steve Cooley... but it was hard to advise him on who to vote for in the Senate contest, since all the candidates are flawed. (Campbell=no money, Fiorina=gaffes, DeVore=too conservative)

But he hadn't seen either Demon Sheep or Chuck DeVore's 24 ad and said he'd probably vote for whomever's ad was worse....which I'll guess will mean Fiorina.

That said, he's the sort of low-information voter that PG&E would target, but even he was like "I should vote against that power prop, right? Seems like a pretty blatant power grab by PG&E..." Here's to hoping that even this piece of info gets through to low-information voters.

Also, I remember reading, (but can't find the study) that most voters, when they don't know anything about a proposition, they'll usually vote no on any given prop. Can anyone back me up or refute me on this?  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 15:38:38 PM UTC