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What if the 2003 Texas redistricting had never happened?

by: possumtracker1991

Sat May 29, 2010 at 3:26 PM EDT


This diary takes a look at what might have happened if the 2003 Texas redistricting had never occurred. I compared the 2000 demographics and presidential results for the map used in the 2002 elections with the 2008 demographics and presidential results under the same lines. I used Dave's App to do this, with the Test Data setting to get the political data, but the regular voting district map (without the Test Data setting) to get the correct demographic estimates. I also looked at the shifts for the districts during this time period and elaborated a bit on what might have occurred had this map remained in place for the rest of the decade. Please vote in the survey at the end as well. Thanks and enjoy!

Statewide Map
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East Texas
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District 1 (Blue); Northeast Texas-Texarkana, Paris, Greenville, Nacogdoches, Marshall
2002 winner and winning percentage: Max Sandlin (D), 56%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 75 16 7 0 651,619
2008 population (est.) 72 15 11 1 683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008 -3 -1 +4 +1 +31,798

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
64% Bush-36% Gore 69% McCain-30% Obama +5% Republican, -6% Democratic

District 2 (Green): East Texas-Lufkin, Orange, Huntsville, Liberty
2002 winner and winning percentage: Jim Turner (D), 61%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 76 14 9 0 651,619
2008 population (est.) 73 13 12 1 683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008 -3 -1 +3 +1 +37,712

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
63% Bush-37% Gore 70% McCain-29% Obama +7% Republican, -8% Democratic

District 4 (Red): North and East Texas-Longview, Tyler, Sherman
2002 winner and winning percentage: Ralph Hall (D), 58%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 77 12 9 1 651,620
2008 population (est.) 72 11 14 1 773,426
Change from 2000 to 2008 -5 -1 +5 0 +121,806

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
70% Bush-30% Gore 70% McCain-29% Obama 0% Republican, -1% Democratic

District 9 (Light Blue): East Texas and Harris County-Beaumont, Port Arthur, Galveston, Texas City
2002 winner and winning percentage: Nick Lampson (D), 59%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 60 21 14 3 651,619
2008 population (est.) 56 21 19 3 675,944
Change from 2000 to 2008 -4 0 +5 0 +24,325

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
55% Bush-45% Gore 56% McCain-43% Obama +1% Republican, -2% Democratic

Dallas/Fort Worth Area
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District 3 (Purple):Collin County and northern Dallas County-Richardson, Garland, Plano, McKinney
2002 winner and winning percentage: Sam Johnson (R), 74%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 70 7 14 7 651,620
2008 population (est.) 61 9 18 10 898,778
Change from 2000 to 2008 -9 +2 +4 +3 +247,158

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore 60% McCain-39% Obama -12% Republican, +11% Democratic

District 5 (Yellow): Dallas County and Central/East Texas-Dallas, Mesquite, Palestine, Athens
2002 winner and winning percentage: Jeb Hensarling (R), 58%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 63 16 18 2 651,620
2008 population (est.) 56 17 23 2 677,043
Change from 2000 to 2008 -7 +1 +5 0 +25,423

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
62% Bush-38% Gore 57% McCain-42% Obama -5% Republican, +4% Democratic

District 6 (Dark Teal): Tarrant County and Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs and exurbs: Arlington, Ennis, Cleburne, Corsicana
2002 winner and winning percentage: Joe Barton (R), 70%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 72 10 14 3 651,620
2008 population (est.) 67 11 18 3 748,734
Change from 2000 to 2008 -5 +1 +4 0 +97,114

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore 61% McCain-38% Obama -6% Republican, +5% Democratic

District 12 (Periwinkle): Tarrant and Parker Counties-Weatherford, Fort Worth, Keller
2002 winner and winning percentage: Kay Granger (R), 92%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 71 5 20 2 651,619
2008 population (est.) 64 5 26 3 788,643
Change from 2000 to 2008 -7 0 +6 +1 +137,024

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore 65% McCain-34% Obama -2% Republican, +1% Democratic

District 24 (Dark Purple): Dallas and Tarrant Counties-Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Duncanville
2002 winner and winning percentage: Martin Frost (D), 65%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 35 22 38 3 651,619
2008 population (est.) 28 22 45 4 836,571
Change from 2000 to 2008 -7 0 +7 +1 +184,952

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
46% Bush-54% Gore 36% McCain-63% Obama -10% Republican, +9% Democratic

District 26 (Dark Gray): Denton, Tarrant, and Collin Counties-Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, McKinney
2002 winner and winning percentage: Michael Burgess (R), 75%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 78 5 11 4 651,619
2008 population (est.) 70 7 16 6 897,454
Change from 2000 to 2008 -8 +2 +5 +2 +245,835

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
73% Bush-27% Gore 63% McCain-36% Obama -10% Republican, +9% Democratic

District 30 (Salmon): Dallas County: Dallas, Irving
2002 winner and winning percentage: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D), 74%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 25 41 31 2 651,620
2008 population (est.) 19 39 39 2 726,340
Change from 2000 to 2008 -6 -2 +8 0 +74,720

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
31% Bush-69% Gore 21% McCain-78% Obama -10% Republican, +9% Democratic

District 32 (Burnt Orange): Dallas County-Dallas, Farmer's Branch, University/Highland Park, Irving
2002 winner and winning percentage: Pete Sessions (R), 68%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 55 9 27 6 651,619
2008 population (est.) 44 9 38 7 703,588
Change from 2000 to 2008 -11 0 +11 +1 +51,969

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
65% Bush-35% Gore 53% McCain-46% Obama -12% Republican, +13% Democratic

Houston Area
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District 7 (Gray): Harris County-western Houston, the Villages
2002 winner and winning percentage: John Culberson (R), 89%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 50 11 26 11 651,620
2008 population (est.) 43 11 32 12 746,517
Change from 2000 to 2008 -7 0 +6 +1 +94,897

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
68% Bush-32% Gore 55% McCain-44% Obama -13% Republican, +12% Democratic

District 8 (Dark Lavender): Harris and Montgomery Counties-Jersey Village, Humble, Conroe
2002 winner and winning percentage: Kevin Brady (R), 93%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 77 5 13 3 651,619
2008 population (est.) 71 6 18 4 846,293
Change from 2000 to 2008 -6 +1 +5 +1 +194,674

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
78% Bush-22% Gore 71% McCain-28% Obama -7% Republican, +6% Democratic

District 18 (Banana Yellow): Harris County-Houston
2002 winner and winning percentage: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D), 77%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 21 42 33 3 651,620
2008 population (est.) 18 41 38 3 779,948
Change from 2000 to 2008 -3 -1 +5 0 +128,328

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
26% Bush-74% Gore 22% McCain-77% Obama -4% Republican, +3% Democratic

District 22 (Brown): Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Harris Counties-Rosenberg, Sugarland, Pearland, Pasadena
2002 winner and winning percentage: Tom DeLay (R), 63%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 60 10 20 8 651,619
2008 population (est.) 52 12 23 12 866,297
Change from 2000 to 2008 -8 +2 +3 +4 +214,678

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
68% Bush-32% Gore 59% McCain-40% Obama -9% Republican, +8% Democratic

District 25 (Dark Pink): Fort Bend and Harris Counties-Houston, Belaire, University Place, South Houston, Baytown
2002 winner and winning percentage: Chris Bell (D), 55%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 37 23 34 5 651,619
2008 population (est.) 32 22 40 5 683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008 -5 -1 +6 0 +156,401

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
48% Bush-52% Gore 41% McCain-59% Obama -7% Republican, +7% Democratic

District 29 (Grayish Green): Harris County-Houston, Jacinto City, Galena Park, South Houston
2002 winner and winning percentage: Gene Green (D), 95%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 20 15 62 2 651,620
2008 population (est.) 16 13 68 2 825,305
Change from 2000 to 2008 -4 -2 +6 0 +173,685

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
39% Bush-61% Gore 31% McCain-69% Obama -8% Republican, +8% Democratic

Central Texas
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District 10 (Magenta): Travis County-Austin
2002 winner and winning percentage: Lloyd Doggett (D), 84%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 50 11 33 4 651,619
2008 population (est.) 45 10 38 5 809,987
Change from 2000 to 2008 -5 -1 +5 +1 +158,368

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
47% Bush-53% Gore 28% McCain-70% Obama -19% Republican, +17% Democratic

District 11 (Lime Green): Central Texas-Waco, Georgetown, Temple, Killeen
2002 winner and winning percentage: Chet Edwards (D), 52%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 64 15 16 2 651,620
2008 population (est.) 61 15 20 2 742,620
Change from 2000 to 2008 -3 0 +4 0 +91,000

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore 61% McCain-38% Obama -6% Republican, +5% Democratic

District 14 (Bronze): Texas Hill Country and Texas Coastline-Victoria, San Marcos, Calhoun, Seguin
2002 winner and winning percentage: Ron Paul (R), 68%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 58 8 32 1 651,620
2008 population (est.) 54 8 35 1 751,893
Change from 2000 to 2008 -4 0 +3 0 +100,273

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
66% Bush-34% Gore 62% McCain-37% Obama -4% Republican, +3% Democratic

District 21 (Maroon): Central/West Texas-San Antonio, Austin, New Braunfels
2002 winner and winning percentage: Lamar Smith (R), 73%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 77 2 17 2 651,619
2008 population (est.) 74 2 20 3 779,551
Change from 2000 to 2008 -3 0 +3 +1 +127,932

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
73% Bush-27% Gore 62% McCain-37% Obama -11% Republican, +10% Democratic

District 31 (Beige): Central Texas and Houston suburbs/exurbs: Round Rock, Bryan, Sealy, Katy
2002 winner and winning percentage: John Carter (R), 69%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 69 9 17 3 651,620
2008 population (est.) 64 9 21 4 780,639
Change from 2000 to 2008 -5 0 +4 +1 +129,019

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore 60% McCain-38% Obama -12% Republican, +10% Democratic

West Texas
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District 13 (Tan): West Texas-Wichita Falls, Amarillo
2002 winner and winning percentage: Mac Thornberry (R), 79%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 70 6 22 1 651,619
2008 population (est.) 65 6 26 1 654,677
Change from 2000 to 2008 -5 0 +4 0 +3,058

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
75% Bush-25% Gore 76% McCain-23% Obama +1% Republican, -2% Democratic

District 16 (Bright Green): El Paso County: El Paso
2002 winner and winning percentage: Silvestre Reyes (D), unopposed
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 17 3 78 1 651,619
2008 population (est.) 14 3 81 1 683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008 -3 0 +3 0 +59,428

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore 33% McCain-66% Obama -8% Republican, +7% Democratic

District 17 (Iris): West Texas: Abilene, San Angelo
2002 winner and winning percentage: Charlie Stenholm (D), 51%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 75 4 20 1 651,619
2008 population (est.) 71 4 23 1 683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008 -4 0 +3 0 +16,986

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore 75% McCain-24% Obama +3% Republican, -4% Democratic

District 19 (Pea Green): West Texas-Lubbock, Big Spring, Midland, Odessa
2002 winner and winning percentage: Larry Combest (R), 92%
2003 special election winner and winning percentage: Randy Neugebauer (R), 51%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 58 6 34 1 651,619
2008 population (est.) 53 6 39 1 689,654
Change from 2000 to 2008 -5 0 +5 0 +38,035

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
76% Bush-24% Gore 73% McCain-27% Obama -3% Republican, +3% Democratic

San Antonio and South Texas
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District 15 (Tangerine): South Texas- McAllen, Kingsville
2002 winner and winning percentage: Ruben Hinojosa (D), unopposed
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 17 3 78 1 651,619
2008 population (est.) 14 3 81 1 711,047
Change from 2000 to 2008 -3 0 +3 0 +59,428

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore 33% McCain-66% Obama -8% Republican, +7% Democratic

District 20 (Light Pink): Bexar County-San Antonio
2002 winner and winning percentage: Charlie Gonzalez, unopposed
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 24 5 68 1 651,619
2008 population (est.) 21 5 71 2 776,861
Change from 2000 to 2008 -3 0 +3 +1 +125,242

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
43% Bush-57% Gore 36% McCain-63% Obama -7% Republican, +6% Democratic

District 23 (Light Blue): West and South Texas: El Paso, Eagle Pass, Laredo, San Antonio
2002 winner and winning percentage: Henry Bonilla (R), 52%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 30 1 67 1 651,619
2008 population (est.) 27 1 69 1 728,212
Change from 2000 to 2008 -3 0 +2 0 +76,593

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
59% Bush-41% Gore 50% McCain-49% Obama -9% Republican, +8% Democratic

District 27 (Spring Green): South Texas-Corpus Christi, Harlingen, Brownsville
2002 winner and winning percentage: Solomon Ortiz, 61%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 25 2 72 1 651,619
2008 population (est.) 21 2 75 1 717,846
Change from 2000 to 2008 -4 0 +3 0 +66,227

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
49% Bush-51% Gore 43% McCain-56% Obama -6% Republican, +5% Democratic

District 28 (Rose): South Texas and Bexar County: San Antonio, McAllen
2002 winner and winning percentage: Ciro Rodriguez (D), 71%
% white % black % Hispanic % Asian Total district population
2000 population 21 8 70 1 651,620
2008 population (est.) 19 7 72 1 761,316
Change from 2000 to 2008 -2 -1 +2 0 +109,696

2000 presidential results 2008 presidential results Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore 36% McCain-63% Obama -5% Republican, +4% Democratic

So what would have happened in the past three elections had this map stayed in place for the rest of the decade? Often people assume that the Anglo Democratic incumbents who were targeted would have been reelected had the redistricting not occurred. This is definitely true in the case of Martin Frost, Lloyd Doggett, and Chris Bell, whose already Democratic and urban districts have shifted even more to the left since 2000. But the other Anglo Democrats largely came from more rural, Republican-leaning areas, and their districts all went for Bush in 2000. This list includes Max Sandlin, Jim Turner, Ralph Hall, Nick Lampson, Chet Edwards, and Charles Stenholm. Now let's look at a county map of Texas showing the change between 2000 and 2008, with the congressional districts where Gore outperformed Obama superimposed over the map.
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Despite a roughly 4% move towards the Democrats statewide between 2000 and 2008, there were 6 congressional districts where Obama  actually did worse than Gore: TX-01 (Max Sandlin (D)), TX-02 (Jim Turner (D)), TX-04 (Ralph Hall (D)), TX-09 (Nick Lampson (D)), TX-13 (Mac Thornberry (R)), and TX-17 (Charlie Stenholm (D)). Besides TX-13, all of these districts elected Democrats in 2002. In addition, all of the Anglo Democrats elected in districts that Bush won in 2000 saw their districts become more Republican over time, with one exception. TX-11 in Central Texas would have become notably more Democratic during this time period, and  its representative, Chet Edwards, is the only one of these men still in office as a Democrat.

However, I am not convinced that the marked rightward shift would have occurred inevitably had the boundaries not changed in the 2003 redistricting. Many residents in these districts were trending Republican at the presidential level, but felt comfortable continuing to vote for Democrats at the congressional level. But in 2004, the redrawn districts included areas that had previously been represented by Republicans or by other targeted Democratic members, meaning the advantage of incumbency was greatly diminished. This led to the defeat, party switching, or retirement of all the legislators listed above, but I believe, also contributed to these areas becoming more Republican at the presidential level in 2004 and 2008. Without the option to vote for a familiar incumbent Democrat for Congress further down the ballot, voters felt less inclined to vote for a Democrat at any level, including President. Had the 2003 redistricting not occurred, I believe not only that several of these lawmakers might still be in office, but Obama may have even performed better in these districts in 2008.

Other than the representatives just discussed, I believe that all of the other Democratic and Republican incumbents would still be in office right now, with the possible exceptions of John Culberson (R, 7th) and Henry Bonilla (R, 23rd), whose districts would have become much more competitive by the end of the decade. But I think this analysis shows that in the long-term, Texas is turning blue, and it is only a matter of time before the shifts to the Democrats in the Houston area, the Dallas/Forth Worth Area, and Central Texas finally push Texas into the Democratic column.
possumtracker1991 :: What if the 2003 Texas redistricting had never happened?
Poll
Which of the following districts do you think would have changed hands if the 2003 redistricting had never happened? Select all that apply.
TX-01
TX-02
TX-04
TX-07
TX-09
TX-11
TX-17
TX-23

Results

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What if the 2003 Texas redistricting had never happened? | 51 comments
Great Diary!
Thank you so much for doing this!

I marked TX-1, 2, 4, 11, and 23 as switching but I'm a bit unsure on TX-2 and 11.  With 11, the questions is how Stenholm would have used his seniority as AG committee chairman once Dems retook power in 2006. Had that power switch never occurred, 11 is a definite switch (or he could have retired, he was quite old.)

I think Ralph Hall was going was going to switch parties eventually, so mark it as a loss.

1 and 2 . . . I think it's more likely they would switch than not. Sandlin's 56% win in 2000 seems low to me for someone who would have to deal with a district that lost 6% of democratic presidential support. A stronger 2000 showing would give me more confidence, but this is just too weak. Turner's 61% is strong enough for me to think he could have done it, but I think District 2 is the perfect example of a district getting in line with national straight ticket Republican trends. Suburban White folk moving in around Tyler County would take Turner out, me thinks.

Still, with this map Dems would have kept Lampson, Frost, and flipped Bonilla. (Bell flipped to A. Green, so no real loss with him). Overall, TX Dems would have been +3 members from today with Frost as Rules Chairman and Stenholm would have been Agriculture chairman.

14 Dems, 18 GOP, Dems represent 43.75% of the state, which is what dems seem to get statewide these days, the old map was pretty fair and accurate. Shame it got elminated. And Lampson was forcibly taken away as my congressman who could be somewhat liberal.  ;-/

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Yeah
I think as Ag Committee Chair Stenholm would have been very effective, although his relationship with Pelosi would have been quite testy, even more so than Collin Peterson's is. It's interesting to look at articles about the race in TX-19 in 2004, one of the reasons Republicans used to promote Neugebauer was that he would be more effective as part of the GOP majority than Stenholm, although just two years later the GOP lost control of the House.

Another thing about districts 1 and 2: the population there has been very sluggish, so redistricting will really change the districts, probably by making them take up more Republican suburbs and exurbs. It would have been very hard for Sandlin and Turner to survive that redistricting after 2011 since their prior districts were largely rural.

Yeah, that map would have been a more accurate reflection of the state by far, even if those three districts had flipped.

[ Parent ]
DANGIT!
Can I change my vote from TX-11 to TX-17? Having those 2 flip digits confused me.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Ahh sorry
I wish you could bit not sure if I can do that. It is definitely confusing, they could have easily kept Edwards district # as 11 and numbered the new Permian Basin/mike Conaway district as 17. I think they purposely changed Edwards' district # to be confusing like that in hopes that he would slip up and accidentally say district 11 while running in district 17 in 2004. They essentially did the same thing with some of the other incumbents, giving them somewhat geographically similar districts with new numbers. Turner (2 to 8), Lampson (9 to 2), Bell (25 to 9), and Doggett (25 to 10).
[ Parent ]
Stenholm is now 71.
To me, that's hardly "quite old."
[ Parent ]
He was
gunning to be Ag Secretary under President Obama right after the election in 2008 and is now a lobbyist with the American Petroleum Institute.  
[ Parent ]
Petroleum Lobbyist?
collar pull

Awkward timing for that if you ever want to go back to public service.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Very cool
I started on something like this a couple of times but ran out of steam. I think it goes to show that you can't fully predict political trends 20 years out.
Trends
It is very difficult to predict how things change. In the 2004 Almanac of American Politics, Michael Barone said of TX-02: "The political tradition here is populist and Democratic." It would be hard to say that now about that district. Meanwhile, I think no one really foresaw the massive shifts in the GOP DFW districts and districts 7 and 22.  
[ Parent ]
This diary is awesome
Wow. Excellent work.

A few comments:

It's amazing to observe the shifts in Austin, and, by extension, Travis County. What an amazing shift over the past eight years. I know that Doggett's district has gotten more Hispanic, but what also has made that shift more pronounced? I would love an answer to that.

I think Chet Edwards would love to have a district that Democratic!

It's also amazing to me the power of personal popularity for congress critters like Charlie Stenholm. Crazy that he could win all those years in the most conservative exurban part of the state, let alone the country.

And, possumtracker, I hope for all of our sakes that this diary doesn't get bumped down by some non-substantive post!

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

Travis County's shift
Ralph Nader's presence in 2000 really exaggerates the shift that Travis County has undergone. Nader received over 10% of the vote there, and Bush received only 47%; if Nader hadn't been on the ballot, Gore would probably have won Travis County by a small margin and Lloyd Doggett's district by a bigger one. Kerry did better than Gore in virtually all college towns, so a 5% drop in Bush's performance in 2004 fits the national pattern. And of course, Obama romped in large urban areas, and among young people and minorities; in fact, Dallas County swung toward Obama a little more than Travis County did.
[ Parent ]
Thank you!
Yeah, the political shift in that district was by far the largest, really incredible. TX-21 definitely changed a lot too. I think in regard to Travis County in 2000, there was probably a certain amount of hometown pride for Bush that masked the innate liberalism of Austin. By 2004, that pride had faded and the results more closely matched the progressive ideology of Travis County. In 2008, there was no Texan on the presidential ticket, so Travis County voters for the most part felt no reservations about voting for Obama.

Chet Edwards would have had a much better district under this plan, and was very popular with the otherwise Republican soldiers/veterans around Fort Hood. He is just an amazing politician though, and you can see on this map how little his old district actually overlapped with his current district (other than Waco).

I think Stenholm's survival was largely based on his incumbency, although after running unopposed multiple times the 1980s he faced some tough races in the 1990s and only won his 13th term in 2002 with 51% of the vote. This is mainly due to population loss in the ancestrally Democratic rural areas where, being a cotton farmer, he was quite popular, and population growth in heavily Republican counties containing Forth Worth exurbs.

For Stenholm, Thornberry, and all of the East Texas Democrats, the 2011 redistricting would have been tough, because their districts would have had such sluggish population growth that they would have had to pick up high growth Republican areas (perhaps with the exception of Nick Lampson though).

I pity the fool that posts a non-substantive diary!

[ Parent ]
1990s districts
I mapped those on Dave's App and can post that diary at some point too if you guys are interested. I would be really grateful if anyone with the 2002 edition (107th Congress) of the Almanac of American Politics could post the demographic/political data for those districts so I could show the shifts since the 1990 Census and 2000 election.
I am interested, please post!


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Which version of the 1990s districts?
The 1992 map was a pure Democratic gerrymander. I would be curious to see how it worked out after 20 yrs.
[ Parent ]
107th Congress (2000 elections)
The 1992 district map wasn't that different from the 2000 version in terms of gerrymandering, the only real changes were some of the VRA districts in the Houston areas. I just need the data (white, black, Hispanic, and Asian %s, total population, and Bush/Gore %s) if anyone has a copy of the 2002 Almanac of American Politics and could post this I would really appreciate it. If any of you are in college and haven't gone home yet, it's almost certainly in the campus library.
[ Parent ]
For once
I'm happy that my school has a weird-ass schedule! :)

I'll go to the library tomorrow and get it out.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
I was thinking it might be interesting to get the Clinton-Dole numbers as well as the Bush/Gore numbers if it's not too much trouble, the 2000 edition would have those. For example, I believe Clinton won TX-02 in 1996, but McCain crushed Obama there in 2008.
[ Parent ]
Have you checked polidata?
here.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, it's just super-expensive
$198 for the book on Texas elections, I'm too poor to spend that much money on such a specialized book. They do have some free maps though that are pretty showing the presidential results by congressional district going back to 1992, just with no numbers available.  
[ Parent ]
*Correction
"that are pretty cool showing..." was what I meant to say.
[ Parent ]
I'd just ask various SoS's
I mean I once sent an email asking the North Dakota SoS for electoral data for all statewide elections dating back to 1980, and got asked for my address, (and gave them a Louisiana address), and got sent a thick pack of spreadsheets with all the information I wanted. Now that is service there.  
[ Parent ]
Scroll down to the bottom
Pres by CD is free back to 1992.  
[ Parent ]
Sweet, they have them for every state!
Thanks, I will be addicted to reading these for the next few days haha.
[ Parent ]
heh, I did that years ago.

[ Parent ]
Next year at college
It will be amazing having so many political resources right in front of me, just about any book I can think of, online databases, newspaper archives. I don't want to think that I'll be spending too much time in the library other than to study, but all of that stuff will be awfully tempting for a political junkie like me...
[ Parent ]
Are you considering majoring
in Poli Sci or Government?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Not really sure
For a while I wanted to be a Poli Sci major and then go to law school. Back in the fall though I kind of lost interest in law and also felt that while I love politics, I wouldn't want to do politics as my only career. So then I was looking at being a psych major and then a psychologist. But last week I looked at the psych major requirements and saw how many science credits were needed, and I'm not really a science guy so I've decided not to do that. So yeah, I'm kind of back to square one now. But I won't really need to decide until I'm a junior anyway, so I have two more years to think about it. How about you, what sis you major in?
[ Parent ]
Meant to say
What DID you major in?
[ Parent ]
Music performance
I am a professional musician and Professor of Music, and also do some writing tutoring. My moniker, "Pan," is for the Greek God who is credited with inventing the first instrument, the Pan Pipes or Pan Flute, and I'm a flutist.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I'm a flutist also!
And I am looking at doing some tutoring myself, in math, biology, and chemistry, subjects I love.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Good luck
with both the tutoring and the music!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Thanks! n/t


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I was originally a polisci double major but dropped it
I think a huge part of it has to do with how your school teaches polisci. My school's polisci department was too big on theory stuff for me, it didn't have enough of the juicy focus on American politics that I crave and that SSP gives me in spades.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Am very interested as well
Would love to see it!

Also, itd be cool to see this for the 1992-2002 California districts. There were alot of swing districts back then that had to have swung hard left.

[ Parent ]
1992 califoornia district maps and data
the date for california is here

http://igs.berkeley.edu/librar...

This is the court ordered plan imposed for 1992,

"Republicans have 25 districts where they command at least 43 percent of registered voters, usually enough to ensure a GOP victory. Democrats have only 16 districts where 56 percent or more of the voters registered for their party, the number often cited as a safe Democratic margin."

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
Thanks for this!
Excellent information! And while I was aware that DeLay was my congressman in 2002 i didnt realize that my residential subdivision & precinct were literally on the border with Lampson's! My current home of Seabrook was also in DeLay's district back then. Both homes are in TX-22 (Olson) now.
This is a great map
 I never thought of doing a map where you put old congressional district lines on the map and see how they would be now. I think Georgia would be a good state to do if it had partisan data.

Also, I was going to post another county baselines diary on Sunday but I'll hold off a few more days because this diary rocks!

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

I didn't know enough to vote in your poll
but enjoyed this interesting diary.

I'd like you to comment more on this part:


Without the option to vote for a familiar incumbent Democrat for Congress further down the ballot, voters felt less inclined to vote for a Democrat at any level, including President. This shows why it is important to have congressional Democrats representing as many districts as possible, and in my opinion is evidence of a possible "trickle-up" effect in party performance. Had the 2003 redistricting not occurred, I believe not only that several of these lawmakers might still be in office, but Obama would have performed better in these districts in 2008.

What's the evidence for the "trickle-up" effect in party performance?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

I phrased that poorly
This is not really something that can be proven, it is very speculative. It's not so much about evidence as it is about me hypothesizing in a hypothetical that because the areas that had Democratic congressman prior to 2003 trended more Republican without those members there. By "trickle-up", I meant that it seems likely because of those results that when people felt comfortable voting for one Democrat (their incumbent Congressman), they might have had fewer reservations about voting for a Democratic candidate for President. I thought that the fact that the places where the shift rightward was most extreme were in areas for the large part previously represented by Democrats seemed to be a response by voters to this change.

At the same time, we will never know what the results in these counties would have been in 2008 if they still had these congressman serving there, so this is not something that can be quantitatively proven and I should not have stated it as such.  

[ Parent ]
What's so difficult about social sciences
is that, so often, there is no way to have anything remotely like a "control group" in real-world conditions that are not experimental.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
One day
Time travel will solve all that (and cause plenty of other problems in the process though...)
[ Parent ]
Want to ask for some advice
Ross Perot got 22% in Texas in 1992, which undoubtedly is reflected in some of the congressional district results. Say there was a district that was 35% Bush, 40% Clinton, and 25% Perot in 1992. Looking at just the ratio of Bush-Clinton results though, this becomes 53% Clinton-47% Bush, which more accurately represents the partisan divide between the two candidates. If I wanted to contrast the results that year with the 2008 results then should I show the raw results, of the ratio between the two candidates? Same thing would apply for 1996.
Conventional wisdom is that Perot drew evenly
from both candidates in both years.  
[ Parent ]
Okay thanks
I will use the ratios of Bush-Gore results then. I had thought that it was about even just wanted to see what would be the best way to show the data.
[ Parent ]
Whoops
Meant to say the ratios for 1992 and 1996. I think I will use the raw data for 2000 and 2008 though.
[ Parent ]
Test-is this a good format for next diary?
Year Results for that year
1992 50% Bush-50% Clinton
1996 51% Dole-49% Clinton
2000 63% Bush-36% Gore
2008 69% McCain-30% Obama

Different years Swing
1992 to 1996 +1 % R, -1% D
1992 to 2000 +13% R, -14% D
1992 to 2008 +19% R, -20% D
1996 to 2000 +12% R, -13% D
1996 to 2008 +18% R, -19% D
2000 to 2008 +6% R, -6% D

Yes

[ Parent ]
Okay thanks
Just wanted to make sure it wasn't confusingly formatted.
[ Parent ]
Sure, but
What happened to 2004?
[ Parent ]
Well
Dave's App only includes the 2008 data, and the furthest results that we have otherwise are up to 2000. The 1990s plan had a ridiculous number of split counties (33 counties were in one or more district), so it would have taken a really long time to add up the individual precincts, especially for Harris (7 congressional districts), Dallas (7 cds), Tarrant (4 cds), and Bexar (4 cds) Counties. But very broadly, in 2004 compared to 2000 Bush mostly did better in rural and suburban areas, while Kerry outperformed Gore in urban areas for the most part.
[ Parent ]
What if the 2003 Texas redistricting had never happened? | 51 comments

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