Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (5/24-26, likely voters, 5/10-11 in parens):
Sue Lowden (R): 30 (30)
Sharron Angle (R): 29 (25)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 23 (22)
Other: 7 (5)
None: 3 (n/a)
Undecided: 8 (18)
(MoE: ±4%)
Get a load of that trend line for ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who was mostly a footnote in this race until Lowden started to implode with her poultry obsession. Still, I have to wonder if Lowden and Angle will go nuclear on each other in the remaining week and a half, potentially giving ex-SoS candidate Danny Tarkanian a chance to pull an Alice Kryzan-style victory.
Meanwhile, here are the general election numbers (4/13-14 in parens, 4/5-7 in brackets, 2/22-24 in italicized brackets):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (37)
Sue Lowden (R): 42 (47)
Other: 3 (5)
None: 6 (3)
Undecided: 10 (8)
Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 [42]
Sharron Angle (R): 39 [44]
Other: 5 [n/a]
None: 4 [n/a]
Undecided: 10 [14]
Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 [39]
Danny Tarkanian (R): 42 [39]
Other: 4 [11]
None: 3 [n/a]
Undecided: 10 [11]
(MoE: ±4%)
The trend lines are an absolute mess. It seems that the LVRJ has not exactly been consistent in including the three major Republicans against Reid in each round of their polling. They haven't tested Angle in a general election poll since February, and only went with Lowden in their mid-April poll.
Still, it does show that Reid may have a ghost of a chance, particularly against Angle, who seems like a treasure trove for opposition researchers. But whether it's Angle or Lowden, his best hope may be to push as many voters as possible into the "none of the above" camp -- which, as you know, is an actual ballot choice in Nevada. |
